DiceBitco.in - New Thread to Discuss

[GaleMartins]

If I compare the screenshots then there was roughly (very) a 350 BTC profit for the site with 13,000 BTC wagered. That is a house edge of 2.7% in about 150.000 bets. What I would like to know is how many bets would be enough to be statiscally significant? What I mean is, do these kind of swings in the house edge happen over those number of bets or do we need millions to converge to 1% or even more? Dooglus, any idea?

I think you can use Chernoff bounds for that, check wikipedia.   

[finnile]

Okay I don't see how it would be possible how they could have made ~600 BTC in less then a day.

The chances of them even having 600 BTC in bets in one day when they were averaging 100 BTC in bets per day are in itself slim.

This is speculation, however I think their stats on their site are not accurate, and are trying to lure people to invest in their site and gamble on their site. 

I am not sure if that might be true. So almost every major dice site out there has investments less than 1000 BTC. And hardly any of those is in profits of more than 100 BTC. Even if DB was to come back, I doubt specially after the incident anyone would risk their coins on it.

The Bankroll of the site gained 600 BTC today. If mateo was manl, then it would mean he gave up 600 BTC to revive the site in the hope to lure in more investors. And looking at the stats on other sites, and specially after the incident, I doubt people would risk their BTC, and specially 600 BTC would be a big amount to aim for , for a site that had been proven to be rigged. And it is pretty much impossible for the site to get more than 600 BTC of investment after all this. And even after that he would have to activate mateo again(assuming its him) to take down the entire BR again.

Plus if he wanted to steal more BTC he would have just done it before, during the time of the incident, before people could divest.

[suchmoon]

Okay I don't see how it would be possible how they could have made ~600 BTC in less then a day.

The chances of them even having 600 BTC in bets in one day when they were averaging 100 BTC in bets per day are in itself slim.

This is speculation, however I think their stats on their site are not accurate, and are trying to lure people to invest in their site and gamble on their site. 

I am not sure if that might be true. So almost every major dice site out there has investments less than 1000 BTC. And hardly any of those is in profits of more than 100 BTC. Even if DB was to come back, I doubt specially after the incident anyone would risk their coins on it.

The Bankroll of the site gained 600 BTC today. If mateo was manl, then it would mean he gave up 600 BTC to revive the site in the hope to lure in more investors. And looking at the stats on other sites, and specially after the incident, I doubt people would risk their BTC, and specially 600 BTC would be a big amount to aim for , for a site that had been proven to be rigged. And it is pretty much impossible for the site to get more than 600 BTC of investment after all this. And even after that he would have to activate mateo again(assuming its him) to take down the entire BR again.

Plus if he wanted to steal more BTC he would have just done it before, during the time of the incident, before people could divest.

They wouldn't have to sacrifice the whole 600 BTC if they were playing against themselves. Although my other theory that the initial 600 BTC mateo win was already in the bankroll seems to have been disproved. There is now 1600 BTC in the cold wallet, so that amount had to come from somewhere. Not sure what to think of it.

[a1choi]

if only "Mateo" would come on here to dispell all the myths.  I think every one of the whales in the dice world have come on BTCT to talk about their wins/losses.  except for Mateo..

[zorke]

Okay I don't see how it would be possible how they could have made ~600 BTC in less then a day.

The chances of them even having 600 BTC in bets in one day when they were averaging 100 BTC in bets per day are in itself slim.

This is speculation, however I think their stats on their site are not accurate, and are trying to lure people to invest in their site and gamble on their site. 

I am not sure if that might be true. So almost every major dice site out there has investments less than 1000 BTC. And hardly any of those is in profits of more than 100 BTC. Even if DB was to come back, I doubt specially after the incident anyone would risk their coins on it.

The Bankroll of the site gained 600 BTC today. If mateo was manl, then it would mean he gave up 600 BTC to revive the site in the hope to lure in more investors. And looking at the stats on other sites, and specially after the incident, I doubt people would risk their BTC, and specially 600 BTC would be a big amount to aim for , for a site that had been proven to be rigged. And it is pretty much impossible for the site to get more than 600 BTC of investment after all this. And even after that he would have to activate mateo again(assuming its him) to take down the entire BR again.

Plus if he wanted to steal more BTC he would have just done it before, during the time of the incident, before people could divest.

They said they planned on trying to get private investors to invest in their site. If they have a positive profit showing on their site then they will have an easier time getting private investors to invest, investors who would more likely agree to leave their investment in their site for longer periods of time.

[a1choi]

They said they planned on trying to get private investors to invest in their site. If they have a positive profit showing on their site then they will have an easier time getting private investors to invest, investors who would more likely agree to leave their investment in their site for longer periods of time.

The fact that Mateo lost a whole bunch of money does not dispel any questions i have about the validity of this user account.  Actually it just piles on the questions.  How he could have SUCH an amazing win streak then a ridiculous loss streak is just crazy.

just hope people don't fall for it.  but new suckers are born every min.

[dooglus]

Although my other theory that the initial 600 BTC mateo win was already in the bankroll seems to have been disproved. There is now 1600 BTC in the cold wallet, so that amount had to come from somewhere. Not sure what to think of it.

So is this Mateo's deposit address?

https://blockchain.info/address/1A3rRhZHZkxaEUtbCto9cdTXKDxAveVxyG

2014-08-06 16:23:02 Mateo deposits 75 BTC, presumably invests it
2014-08-06 18:06:57 Mateo's 75 BTC and a bunch of other deposits are shuffled off to the cold wallet

2014-09-17 13:20:22 Mateo deposits 650 BTC
2014-09-17 23:42:05 600 of that is moved to the cold wallet

The 650 BTC deposit came from 3 separate inputs, each of which appears to come from a withdrawal from DB:

23c00ec6 takes 1626 btc from cold wallet                                         2014-09-08 15:36:11
b32436a4 pays someone 165 btc                                                    2014-09-08 15:57:46
a522fff9 pays someone 21 btc                                                     2014-09-08 16:35:00
bbd6d827 pays someone 1 btc                                                      2014-09-08 18:44:04
b2dc009f pays someone 13 btc                                                     2014-09-09 08:59:47
d1320a11 pays Mateo 274.5499 btc - which is the 1st input of the 650 deposit     2014-09-09 15:11:09
22da4081 pays someone 347 btc                                                    2014-09-09 15:11:10
5abe3ae3 pays Mateo 177.3999 btc - which is the 3rd input of the 650 deposit     2014-09-09 15:11:11
906dcda6 pays Mateo 201.47735735 btc - which is the 2nd input of the 650 deposit 2014-09-09 15:11:12

I don't know what any of that tells us, other than that the coins Mateo just lost seem to have been withdrawn from DB and redeposited without being used for anything in between.

Edit: I should point out that each of these transactions is a child of the one before it; they form a chain. Each (other than the first) has just one input, so you can follow the chain back from the last to the first.

[NLNico]

Awww dooglus was before me, but I was also typing summary lol:



So 600 BTC was added to cold wallet 19tQNCrmaW6EADfJrtBaRixRkPyVrvb6yk, so my very basic blockchain analysis says this:



Mateo's deposit address seems 1A3rRhZHZkxaEUtbCto9cdTXKDxAveVxyG (source of that 600 BTC)

Going back:

He "deposited" 75 BTC on 2014-08-06 from 1Kik5z8fkZMai5DBgyBGjggFXAqVubrMk

Mateo withdrew 653.427 btc on 2014-09-09 to 3 addresses (3 withdrawals perhaps):
15B7kFfPJjRwhsPUBhE294nS18tuNW1jJE
1Hudb5hR4v8EhHGCjFmAqniPtfxdhGuTqW
15rdsWhmi8TbJJex9seGnG3nndMV3nqkM8

He didn't do anything with these coins in the meantime, but deposited 650 BTC on 2014-09-17:
1A3rRhZHZkxaEUtbCto9cdTXKDxAveVxyG

Few strange / interesting things IMO:

1) Would any whale deposit all 650 BTC to start playing again? Or just first 50 BTC, 100 BTC, then maybe tilt add the rest?

2) Between the "deposit" of 75 BTC and big withdrawal there is more than a month? They did say he was -33 before the winnings.

3) 1Kik5z8fkZMai5DBgyBGjggFXAqVubrMk seems a hot wallet? Was that a DB hot wallet? If so, would the only 2 explanations be: he had a former account and w/d from there into the mateo account, or it's the owner?

4) Total output of 600 BTC deposit, was 650 BTC, 50 BTC went to 122pzTq7wM3MuyohY8DGi1QNjFashzpdgS. How is that supposed to work within the depo/wd system of DB?


I am not very good at analyzing the blockchain, so correct me if some of my "assumptions" are wrong

[zorke]

They said they planned on trying to get private investors to invest in their site. If they have a positive profit showing on their site then they will have an easier time getting private investors to invest, investors who would more likely agree to leave their investment in their site for longer periods of time.

The fact that Mateo lost a whole bunch of money does not dispel any questions i have about the validity of this user account.  Actually it just piles on the questions.  How he could have SUCH an amazing win streak then a ridiculous loss streak is just crazy.

just hope people don't fall for it.  but new suckers are born every min.

I am not saying anything about the mateo account. My statement is regarding the validity of the site stats displayed. The fact that their overall bankroll is now showing as positive (roughly the same amount as it was when the shit hit the fan) would imply that both the investor losses from a week ago and the recent investor gains are likely fake.

I know they had suggested handing the site over to dooglus to run when they were dealing with the crisis, however he declined (he actually did not response but this is a defacto decline) so it would be possible the site was sold and the numbers are being manipulated in order to con future investors out of their bitcoin.

[dooglus]

4) Total output of 600 BTC deposit, was 650 BTC, 50 BTC went to 122pzTq7wM3MuyohY8DGi1QNjFashzpdgS. How is that supposed to work within the depo/wd system of DB?

You saw pretty much exactly the same as I did.

Notice the timestamps I show - I wonder why there's such a long pause before the last 4 transactions, then one happens per second. The delay wasn't waiting for coins from the cold wallet, because they were moved online 24 hours previously. Can we draw the conclusion that the last 4 were all Mateo, and that he still has 347 BTC from the 3rd withdrawal? Or were withdrawals just being queued for some other reason (maybe the site owners were investigating the whale's amazing luck, say) and someone else happened to get into the queue between Mateo's withdrawal requests.

As for your 4th point, that seems pretty normal. When you see the hot wallet has 600 more coins than you are comfortable keeping online, you send them offline. The client picks the 650 output, and makes change of 50 BTC. The address where the 50 BTC went was previously unused, which is consistent with bitcoin core's use of change addresses - it uses a new address each time it makes change.

[Iamyourdad]

I invested 0.1 and they are gone

But awesome thing is that site up in profit again

[GeoRW]

Can the investors still withdraw their bitcoins?
Anyone who tried, can you please confirm?

I just divested and withdrew without any problem. But I had only 3 BTC there which multiplied to 4 BTC overnight (I've been divested during the run for some time so could have been more). Cold wallet has enough funds for DiceBitco.in to be solvent, however the lack of open communication from the site owner is putting me off.

[s1ng]

I invested 0.1 and they are gone

But awesome thing is that site up in profit again

+ 300 BTC site profit

Why your invested 0.1 gone ?
although the site gain a profit

[jaysabi]

Manl's silence is the most damning thing about all of this at this point. Twitter account is untouched, no presence here, no chatbox on the dice site. If you were trying to promote and grow your business, wouldn't you feel the need to be promoting your brand and maintaining a presence for the sake of showing transparency and honesty? How can you hope to run a trustworthy business with zero presence or communication?

As for the people investing right now, I can only imagine two camps: 1) Someone who newly discovers the site, has no information about its past and says "I have no idea who runs this or what they're intentions are, but it looks like a great place to put thousands of dollars!" 2) People who have been following this saga and take all Manl's silence and refusal to answer questions, along with the appearance of the site running normally, to mean this is a good place to invest, all history and unlikely explanation for the nonce skipping be damned.

In either case, you're a fool.

Without Manl answering questions, no one should be investing there. Sure, if he posts here, he'll have a ton of stuff to answer for, and people will tear him apart and question every explanation he gives. But that's what you get after your site was found purposefully rigged! People who are investing there right now are basically saying, "Hey, I know your site stole money from people by intentionally not paying out winning bets, but by disappearing and refusing to answer questions and running the site silently from the shadows, that made everything OK!"

Please stop and consider the trustworthiness of this site operator before you send your coins back there.

[a1choi]

Manl's silence is the most damning thing about all of this at this point. Twitter account is untouched, no presence here, no chatbox on the dice site. If you were trying to promote and grow your business, wouldn't you feel the need to be promoting your brand and maintaining a presence for the sake of showing transparency and honesty? How can you hope to run a trustworthy business with zero presence or communication?

As for the people investing right now, I can only imagine two camps: 1) Someone who newly discovers the site, has no information about its past and says "I have no idea who runs this or what they're intentions are, but it looks like a great place to put thousands of dollars!" 2) People who have been following this saga and take all Manl's silence and refusal to answer questions, along with the appearance of the site running normally, to mean this is a good place to invest, all history and unlikely explanation for the nonce skipping be damned.

In either case, you're a fool.

Without Manl answering questions, no one should be investing there. Sure, if he posts here, he'll have a ton of stuff to answer for, and people will tear him apart and question every explanation he gives. But that's what you get after your site was found purposefully rigged! People who are investing there right now are basically saying, "Hey, I know your site stole money from people by intentionally not paying out winning bets, but by disappearing and refusing to answer questions and running the site silently from the shadows, that made everything OK!"

Please stop and consider the trustworthiness of this site operator before you send your coins back there.

9001% agreed.  Could not have said it any better than that.

[GeoRW]

Manl's silence is the most damning thing about all of this at this point. Twitter account is untouched, no presence here, no chatbox on the dice site. If you were trying to promote and grow your business, wouldn't you feel the need to be promoting your brand and maintaining a presence for the sake of showing transparency and honesty? How can you hope to run a trustworthy business with zero presence or communication?

As for the people investing right now, I can only imagine two camps: 1) Someone who newly discovers the site, has no information about its past and says "I have no idea who runs this or what they're intentions are, but it looks like a great place to put thousands of dollars!" 2) People who have been following this saga and take all Manl's silence and refusal to answer questions, along with the appearance of the site running normally, to mean this is a good place to invest, all history and unlikely explanation for the nonce skipping be damned.

In either case, you're a fool.

Without Manl answering questions, no one should be investing there. Sure, if he posts here, he'll have a ton of stuff to answer for, and people will tear him apart and question every explanation he gives. But that's what you get after your site was found purposefully rigged! People who are investing there right now are basically saying, "Hey, I know your site stole money from people by intentionally not paying out winning bets, but by disappearing and refusing to answer questions and running the site silently from the shadows, that made everything OK!"

Please stop and consider the trustworthiness of this site operator before you send your coins back there.

It's was very risky investment, but it has paid out for me :-) I expected Mateo to come back and lose, so I put some small amount of coins there and it actually happened. But I don't see it as a viable investment into the future because of Manl's silence and drop in daily bet amounts. They don't maintain good relationships with players which should be their top priority. I wouldn't be surprised if Mateo was screwed the same way last night as the other players before him.

[seedtrue]

I don't know what any of that tells us, other than that the coins Mateo just lost seem to have been withdrawn from DB and redeposited without being used for anything in between.

Edit: I should point out that each of these transactions is a child of the one before it; they form a chain. Each (other than the first) has just one input, so you can follow the chain back from the last to the first.

The fact that the entire withdraw was untouched and sent back in its entirety should be a flag imho.

[IamNotSure]

I don't know what any of that tells us, other than that the coins Mateo just lost seem to have been withdrawn from DB and redeposited without being used for anything in between.

Edit: I should point out that each of these transactions is a child of the one before it; they form a chain. Each (other than the first) has just one input, so you can follow the chain back from the last to the first.

The fact that the entire withdraw was untouched and sent back in its entirety should be a flag imho.

This site has more red flags than Tiananmen Square

[GeoRW]

I don't know what any of that tells us, other than that the coins Mateo just lost seem to have been withdrawn from DB and redeposited without being used for anything in between.

Edit: I should point out that each of these transactions is a child of the one before it; they form a chain. Each (other than the first) has just one input, so you can follow the chain back from the last to the first.

The fact that the entire withdraw was untouched and sent back in its entirety should be a flag imho.

Flag for what? That he won 600 last time, withdrew them and then redeposited later on and lost it? :-) I don't want to defend them, they fucked up a lot of things, but some conspiracy theories are really funny.

[seedtrue]

I don't know what any of that tells us, other than that the coins Mateo just lost seem to have been withdrawn from DB and redeposited without being used for anything in between.

Edit: I should point out that each of these transactions is a child of the one before it; they form a chain. Each (other than the first) has just one input, so you can follow the chain back from the last to the first.

The fact that the entire withdraw was untouched and sent back in its entirety should be a flag imho.

Flag for what? That he won 600 last time, withdrew them and then redeposited later on and lost it? :-) I don't want to defend them, they fucked up a lot of things, but some conspiracy theories are really funny.

What I mean is he went through the trouble to withdraw to 3 separate addresses, but then on a whim he decides to send it all back in 1 tx.