KanoPool since 2014 🐈 - PPLNS and Solo 0.5% fee - Worldwide - 2436 blocks

[tlhIlwI]

Maybe joining the pool on Friday the 13th was a bad idea?  I hope I'm not bad luck   Been mining here since Friday at 1pm EST and no payout 

It looks like the pool just found a block, so your first payout will be after about 17 hours. 

[1715689233]

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[1715689233]

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[1715689233]

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[1715689233]

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[aurel57]

Maybe joining the pool on Friday the 13th was a bad idea?  I hope I'm not bad luck   Been mining here since Friday at 1pm EST and no payout 

It looks like the pool just found a block, so your first payout will be after about 17 hours. 

Yes and don't be alarmed at the amount of your payment as your still ramping up. 

[tlhIlwI]

Yes and don't be alarmed at the amount of your payment as your still ramping up. 

Yes.  If you started right at the beginning of that long block then your payout will be about 3/8 of what you can expect once you've fully ramped up.  That used to take about 3 days, but with the drop in hash rate it is more like a week now.

[pekatete]

Yes and don't be alarmed at the amount of your payment as your still ramping up.  

....  That used to take about 3 days, but with the drop in hash rate it is more like a week now.

That will be the pool's N Range you are refering to. Look at the Account -> Rewards tab and you'll see it has gone up to 100 hours + which is just over 4 days. The block we just earned took just under 2 days, so if you started at the begining of that block, then your reward will be approximately half what you will earn (proportionately and dependent on pool hashing rate) in blocks earned in 2 days' time if you continue mining with the pool at a steady hashrate throughout that time.

[tlhIlwI]

That will be the pool's N Range you are refering to. Look at the Account -> Rewards tab and you'll see it has gone up to 100 hours + which is just over 4 days. The block we just earned took just under 2 days, so if you started at the begining of that block, then your reward will be approximately half what you will earn (proportionately and dependent on pool hashing rate) in blocks earned in 2 days' time if you continue mining with the pool at a steady hashrate throughout that time.

Interesting.  I see what you are saying regarding the expected payout.    His ramp up time will still be closer to a week though since the shares while canaan was here will drop off before he reaches full reward (our N range will continue to drift toward a week as well until/unless canaan returns).

[sloopy]

I hope my questions have been specific, and sorry in advance for the wall of text. If you are going to respond negatively please do so via PM so we may have a mature discussion.

We go through good days and bad days, but not "luck" to me anymore.
I have never been concerned over Friday the 13th, black cats, or other such things, but there was always something about winning a game of chance enough then expecting a loss, or losing enough and expecting a win.
Through many posts on this forum, and specifically reading this entire thread when I first joined I throw it all out the window.
As I was taught here, luck can be something in the past, but I never expect luck to have any impact on anything. It simply is not real, it is more akin to Santa Claus or the monsters in your closet.
Math is real, calculated probability, but not a dependence of blind luck.

I suppose there is not a better term to describe a 40 hour block or a 4.5 minute one though is there? To keep things simple we call it lucky or unlucky, but isn't it truly random?

What can a new miner do to increase the odds they are successful?
Successful at what? We must be specific. If we ask to be successful at solo mining and winning the block reward we get few answers.
Successful at completing the assigned work from the pool and running an efficient piece of mining hardware is probably a better question, but still general. There are hardware and software points to address.

Someone bringing enough hash to the pool to put it at 4PH but not over 8PH has been said to raise the probability of more immediate rewards, but the way it has been explained to me countless times is it averages out regardless. Lower hashrate = less people to share the rewards with, right?

Is that right? I am getting to my question.
I understand there are probabilities involved but I never claim to be a great mathematician. I think there must be a high and low end of the rewards being "averaged" if a set amount of time is included, otherwise everyone would solo mine? Not everyone, there are people who must have the large pool for the lowest variance to pay there bills, but otherwise if it all averaged out why wouldn't more people solo mine with all of their gear? So maybe it averages out over 60 years, but drop that to 6 years, or 12 months. If no one can predict what will happen in those 12 months, yet we all say "it all averages out", what time variable is that based on?

I am confident there are people here who have not only been mining longer, but that have a much better understanding of the entire process and their length of mining time or writing code has shown them these things do average over time.

I am looking for something to help me understand these things and correct any misconceptions I may have. If there is a resource somewhere else, or a thread here on this forum I have been unable to find it. The best I have found have been discussions on one pool versus another, but there are too many variables outside pure probability and time, EG the pool operator being transparent, types of payment methods (some impossible to maintain), the things most of us have no control over. I'm not saying we control probability or time, but I hope to understand those things more without the noise of the other.

There are very few answers for me outside of the standard "set it and forget it!" which may be the best thing for any miner, but I do not want to forget it, I want to understand each piece of the puzzle. Not in attempts to mine more coin, but to understand how it works and have dialog which could help more new miners understand luck has nothing and everything to do with rewards and here is why. Rewards average out over X amount of time and here is why, and maybe even further to "people with 1PH or more may switch pools to chase a contest for 1 or 2 BTC at another pool for what reasons? Is that truly worth it? Many of the 1 PH miners I see switching are renting their hash out. Depending on the amounts they rent for, they may be making it very much worth it, but, It would seem from everything I have learned so far switching back and forth could cause them much lower rewards from this or any other pool, but does it really? Renting rates are another variable I understand, so throw it out the window as well for what I am after.

Is there an amount of mining power / hashrate where the variance is minimized over X amount of time? And further is there an amount if hashrate you may own where adding 1TH to that amount is likely to garner more reward than 1 person connecting 1 TH, say miner A has 1PH, adds 1 TH and we only count the reward for that single TH they added, versus Miner B simply connecting with 1 TH. If only counting the 1 TH over the 1 PH from miner A against the 1 TH from miner B they should receive equal rewards.
In this scenario I am not including the fact that both A and B are paying for some of the same infrastructure or other variables such as that, but strictly about probability, and where applicable time.

When I am told "it all averages out", what time variable is used in that statement, or what are all of the variables used to form that conclusion? I am mainly focused on time, but anyone feel free to carry it as far and include whatever you wish. I hope to keep it more simply because I have learned about most? variables, I think I have anyway. Time is the one I am trying to understand now.

I hope this post shows only my wish to learn more, and help teach others. I want to help eradicate common misconceptions in my own train of thought, and many of which are human nature. By doing so hope to help others joining our community. I want people to buy Bitcoin, I do not recommend new people to jump at mining, but if someone asks me about luck and probability I want to be able to provide better explanations than I do at the moment, along with "it averages out", and "set it and forget it". While both true there are many people turned off by such short responses, and people like me who generally wish to understand "how it works".

[jonnybravo0311]

People call it luck because when you boil it all down a miner is using brute force to attempt to provide a hash that meets the network's target requirements to add the block to the chain.  Depending on how much gear you own, that could be thousands to quadrillions of times a second.  You can take your gear and estimate how long it would be expected to find a block, and via the same formula figure out how much coin you would expect to earn on a daily basis under ideal circumstances.

The point is, though, that it really is luck because there is no guarantee your miner will ever actually produce a hash that satisfies the network's requirements to add the block to the chain.  No matter what the expectations are.  Conversely, you might find that hash in the next second, minute, hour.

People don't solo mine because of the simple fact that the majority do not have enough hardware to give them any reasonable expectation of finding a block on their own.  That's why pools were invented in the first place: to allow the miners a chance to work together to find a block and split the rewards of doing so between them.

When you hear the phrase, "it will average out over time" there really is no defined unit of time.  It isn't a week, a month, or a year.  It is an indication that all things being equal, you will in fact make the expected amount of coin for your hashing power.  The problem with the statement is that there are unpredictable variables: difficulty changes, orphaned blocks, lost hashes, network connectivity problems, etc.  All things aren't equal, and they never will be.  So, we simplify it to make it easier to swallow.

The entire network is subject to this.  Take a look at the recorded swings in network hash rate.  View it over time, a week, 2 months, 9 months, 3 years.  Heck, just take a look at blockchain.info and see the variability in block times and you'll see blocks solved in seconds and blocks that took hours to crack.  It's hard to quantify this, so we simplify it and call it luck, either good or bad.

Here on kano's pool you can witness the same thing.  Take a look at the block stats.  Some blocks are found well before the expected time, some well after.  Will things average out over time?  They may.  Then again, they may not.  We don't know - and we won't know until the time has passed and we can quantify it with the data of what happened in the past.

[aurel57]

jonny I agree.  My short answer is instead of "luck" think in terms of variance. The question is how to make the variance not as high swings and that short answer in my opinion is  to spread your hash over a couple of pools. Then the things to consider are pool fees, size of the pool and integrity of the pool operator.  

[pekatete]

It is healthy to question the logic of "luck" evening out, but it is staggering how true it happens to be.
1. Slush, which is at least twice as big as this pool (on this pool's best day hash wise) has had 103% luck over the past year (see HERE).
2. On the other hand, if you look at this pool's stats, the all time average is 104.66% (not sure whether this spans a year though)!.

Now when someone says luck evens out over time, this is the sort of statistic that they base that statement on, which I have to say, is very hard to disagree with.

[obfuscated]

I hope my questions have been specific, and sorry in advance for the wall of text. If you are going to respond negatively please do so via PM so we may have a mature discussion.

We go through good days and bad days, but not "luck" to me anymore.
I have never been concerned over Friday the 13th, black cats, or other such things, but there was always something about winning a game of chance enough then expecting a loss, or losing enough and expecting a win.
Through many posts on this forum, and specifically reading this entire thread when I first joined I throw it all out the window.
As I was taught here, luck can be something in the past, but I never expect luck to have any impact on anything. It simply is not real, it is more akin to Santa Claus or the monsters in your closet.
Math is real, calculated probability, but not a dependence of blind luck.
.....

My comment about Friday the 13th was tongue-in-cheek.  I'm not superstitious in the slightest.

Mining is essentially like playing the lottery.  There is no luck, just randomness and probability like you mentioned.  It would be like joining an office lottery pool.  You have a higher probability of winning but the proceeds are shared between members.  You could do the math for the lottery too - over a really ass long time, probability dictates your profit will be the same whether you are in the pool or buying tickets alone.  Though we wouldn't live long enough to see that due to the insanely low odds of winning the lottery.


A question I have is;  is there a similar ramp-up period with PPS pools?  I suspect not.  So the benefit for the members of Kano come after mining with the pool for a longer duration because fees are lower here than with PPS pools.  Is that correct?

[pekatete]

.....
A question I have is;  is there a similar ramp-up period with PPS pools?  I suspect not.  So the benefit for the members of Kano come after mining with the pool for a longer duration because fees are lower here than with PPS pools.  Is that correct?

All pools have a ramp up time, be it NOT the same length as Kano's. Suffice to say the ramp up time at kano is the longest I have ever seen / experienced anywhere! Saying that, it commensurately is the longest I have ever seen anywhere ramping down, thus you'll keep earning from any blocks found (if any) by the pool after you've stopped hashing for the duration it takes for your ramping down to nothing.

Saying that, at Slush (for example) the ramp up time is quite quick, but the ramp down time is twice as quick (if not faster!).

[jonnybravo0311]

.....
A question I have is;  is there a similar ramp-up period with PPS pools?  I suspect not.  So the benefit for the members of Kano come after mining with the pool for a longer duration because fees are lower here than with PPS pools.  Is that correct?

All pools have a ramp up time, be it NOT the same length as Kano's. Suffice to say the ramp up time at kano is the longest I have ever seen / experienced anywhere! Saying that, it commensurately is the longest I have ever seen anywhere ramping down, thus you'll keep earning from any blocks found (if any) by the pool after you've stopped hashing for the duration it takes for your ramping down to nothing.

Saying that, at Slush (for example) the ramp up time is quite quick, but the ramp down time is twice as quick (if not faster!).

PPLNS pools have ramp up/down times.  PPS pools do not...

[stan258]

PPS pools are targets for hot wallet attacks etc. and have pool debt rewards unpaid and can carry on during long between times of block solving. 50BTC will forever owe me .282151 BTC.  PPLNS is pool hopping protection.  Large miner can’t swoop in a screw your block reward because it bases off past work contributed usually presented in a shift based form for human consumption.

I always looked at block solving LUCK as pedestrian vs auto accidents.  There are things to mitigate them but they just happen.  If I didn’t find this block does it mean the pool would not have? I don’t know.  I just try to keep my hardware in good condition, pay for a stupid fast internet connection to minimized rejects, stales, and check threads for updated firmware.  SP gear is easy.  Updated the S5s and S4’s cut the HW errors down considerably with CGminer 4.8.  –thanks CK and Kano.  

Decided to run a full node, 9 weeks left of catching up.  I am in fairly close proximity to the pools server. Pings are in the 35’s. So maybe it will help in an orphan race.  
I have airflow problems with hot weather more or less few weeks away.  Against every fiber in my being evaporative coolers are on the way and will be back mining in a few days.  

Happy hunting CK pool.  

[sorry2xs]

jonny I agree.  My short answer is instead of "luck" think in terms of variance. The question is how to make the variance not as high swings and that short answer in my opinion is  to spread your hash over a couple of pools. Then the things to consider are pool fees, size of the pool and integrity of the pool operator. 

When you said "integrity" you said it all.

[Tinua]

Hi

Since 4 days, I can't reach the pool anymore.
Not the Website, not the pool, nothing.

Before I was connect with over 20 miners without problems!
And then....whole connection to kano.is dead.

If I ping the site (www.kano.is / 104.194.28.194) I get only "Request timed out"

Any Idee?

Regards
Tinu

[-ck]

Since 4 days, I can't reach the pool anymore.
Not the Website, not the pool, nothing.

Before I was connect with over 20 miners without problems!
And then....whole connection to kano.is dead.

If I ping the site (www.kano.is / 104.194.28.194) I get only "Request timed out"

Pool's working fine. Your IP was probably blocked for some reason (usually repeated failed authorisation attempts is the reason). PM Kano your username and IP address and he can look into it.

[Tinua]

Append worker's name

Since 4 days, I can't reach the pool anymore.
Not the Website, not the pool, nothing.

Before I was connect with over 20 miners without problems!
And then....whole connection to kano.is dead.

If I ping the site (www.kano.is / 104.194.28.194) I get only "Request timed out"

Pool's working fine. Your IP was probably blocked for some reason (usually repeated failed authorisation attempts is the reason).

Thanks Con for the Info.

Failed authorisation? How many i need for blocking?
I had 23 Miners over stratum proxy and the same IP on the pool.
But with "Append worker's name" for each miner.
The only problems on the pool I had was with enabled extranonce subscribt.

Who can unlock the Ip now?

[kano]

Append worker's name

Since 4 days, I can't reach the pool anymore.
Not the Website, not the pool, nothing.

Before I was connect with over 20 miners without problems!
And then....whole connection to kano.is dead.

If I ping the site (www.kano.is / 104.194.28.194) I get only "Request timed out"

Pool's working fine. Your IP was probably blocked for some reason (usually repeated failed authorisation attempts is the reason).

Thanks Con for the Info.

Failed authorisation? How many i need for blocking?
I had 23 Miners over stratum proxy and the same IP on the pool.
But with "Append worker's name" for each miner.
The only problems on the pool I had was with enabled extranonce subscribt.

Who can unlock the Ip now?

23 miners doing ~300GHs?

Anyway, it was spamming the console with multiple authorisation attempts after a successful one, that of course are not valid.

At 300GHs it was easy to assume one miner and stop it.

I guess then you are using some proxy with bugs in it?
Try using ckproxy and that shouldn't happen.

I'll re-enable it, but if it happens again, I'll do the same.

[Tinua]

Append worker's name

Since 4 days, I can't reach the pool anymore.
Not the Website, not the pool, nothing.

Before I was connect with over 20 miners without problems!
And then....whole connection to kano.is dead.

If I ping the site (www.kano.is / 104.194.28.194) I get only "Request timed out"

Pool's working fine. Your IP was probably blocked for some reason (usually repeated failed authorisation attempts is the reason).

Thanks Con for the Info.

Failed authorisation? How many i need for blocking?
I had 23 Miners over stratum proxy and the same IP on the pool.
But with "Append worker's name" for each miner.
The only problems on the pool I had was with enabled extranonce subscribt.

Who can unlock the Ip now?

23 miners doing ~300GHs?

Anyway, it was spamming the console with multiple authorisation attempts after a successful one, that of course are not valid.

At 300GHs it was easy to assume one miner and stop it.

I guess then you are using some proxy with bugs in it?
Try using ckproxy and that shouldn't happen.

I'll re-enable it, but if it happens again, I'll do the same.

Hi Kano
No its 8TH or 16TH
Don't know why its only 300GH

I'm using Stratehm/stratum-proxy and had no problem till now on other pools.

I would use your ckproxy, but don't know how to instal on windows machine.  

[kano]

Append worker's name

Since 4 days, I can't reach the pool anymore.
Not the Website, not the pool, nothing.

Before I was connect with over 20 miners without problems!
And then....whole connection to kano.is dead.

If I ping the site (www.kano.is / 104.194.28.194) I get only "Request timed out"

Pool's working fine. Your IP was probably blocked for some reason (usually repeated failed authorisation attempts is the reason).

Thanks Con for the Info.

Failed authorisation? How many i need for blocking?
I had 23 Miners over stratum proxy and the same IP on the pool.
But with "Append worker's name" for each miner.
The only problems on the pool I had was with enabled extranonce subscribt.

Who can unlock the Ip now?

23 miners doing ~300GHs?

Anyway, it was spamming the console with multiple authorisation attempts after a successful one, that of course are not valid.

At 300GHs it was easy to assume one miner and stop it.

I guess then you are using some proxy with bugs in it?
Try using ckproxy and that shouldn't happen.

I'll re-enable it, but if it happens again, I'll do the same.

Hi Kano
No its 8TH or 16TH
Don't know why its only 300GH

I'm using Stratehm/stratum-proxy and had no problem till now on other pools.

I would use your ckproxy, but don't know how to instal on windows machine.  

Your Shifts screen will show you ~300GHs for many hours before I blocked the IP
The console log also shows ~300GHs for many hours before I blocked it (2015-03-12 11:35 UTC)

I can only guess that whatever the proxy bug was, it was also stopping you mining most of your hashes.
I can see now you are back up and mining and stats show over 6THs so far.