N12
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May 17, 2012, 09:40:55 AM |
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Woah Maged, I don’t want to be on record having explicitely said it is not a ponzi. Put me in the unknown camp that leans towards not ponzi. I pretty much share the opinion Patrick and Joel just expressed in the last two posts.
I would never recommend anyone to invest with him since even if it is not a ponzi, it might be risky, or invest in anything for that matter, not even Bitcoins.
Everyone should make his own bets, and my personal bet right now remains the same, though it might change as I continue evaluating things.
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MrTeal
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May 17, 2012, 02:20:31 PM |
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Even if it's not a ponzi, I can't see how it's not a high risk endeavor. Pirate pays out 3300%EAR, it stands to reason his rate would be a higher or he isn't making any money. There aren't a whole lot of safe ways to make that kind of return. Granted I don't know much about his operation as I have very little exposure to his operation, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if my PPT bonds became junk because Pirate got shot or ended up in jail.
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Maged
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May 17, 2012, 02:47:19 PM |
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bitcoins are not illegal in the usa so i highly doubt he will get jailed (or shot). however if btc becomes illegal i would think about taking most my btc from pirates bank.
obama wont shoot pirate just to hurt palin, that is just silly.
Bitcoins aren't illegal, but if this isn't a ponzi, it most certainly involves something illegal - most likely the drug trade.
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Blazr
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May 17, 2012, 04:32:26 PM |
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bitcoins are not illegal in the usa
That not entirely true. It all depends on the way the law is interpreted (especially when looking at anti-money laundering laws). Its a grey area at the moment.
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publio
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May 17, 2012, 11:19:03 PM |
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Good point, but then the thread title should be renamed to Is BS&T a Ponzi?
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PatrickHarnett
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May 18, 2012, 02:06:58 AM |
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To be a bit more precise about my position, I don't think it's a Ponzi because it doesn't fit the pattern of a Ponzi very well -- at least, not yet. However, I cannot imagine anything legitimate that it could possibly be.
Update: Also, I can't imagine it being wise to invest in something when you have absolutely no basis on which to estimate the level of risk involved.
Mega lol - tell that to JP Morgan. $2B (or maybe three billion- they are not sure yet) They don't know how to estimate risk either.
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JoelKatz
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May 18, 2012, 03:47:53 AM |
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To be a bit more precise about my position, I don't think it's a Ponzi because it doesn't fit the pattern of a Ponzi very well -- at least, not yet. However, I cannot imagine anything legitimate that it could possibly be.
Update: Also, I can't imagine it being wise to invest in something when you have absolutely no basis on which to estimate the level of risk involved.
Mega lol - tell that to JP Morgan. $2B (or maybe three billion- they are not sure yet) They don't know how to estimate risk either. Exactly. If you can't estimate risk, don't invest.
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splatster
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May 18, 2012, 05:06:43 AM |
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It's come to a point now that BS&T has been running for so long now that if it is a ponzi (which I don't think it is) and he is planning on running away with the funds, I'd honestly have to give him credit for being able to put together such a long lasting and elaborate scheme. Don't get me wrong, I'd still want my money back, but I'd have to say that he had me fooled pretty well if it was a ponzi.
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terrytibbs
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May 18, 2012, 06:20:56 AM |
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It's come to a point now that BS&T has been running for so long now that if it is a ponzi (which I don't think it is) and he is planning on running away with the funds, I'd honestly have to give him credit for being able to put together such a long lasting and elaborate scheme. Don't get me wrong, I'd still want my money back, but I'd have to say that he had me fooled pretty well if it was a ponzi.
The point you're trying to make is that... if he's a scammer, then he's a really good scammer? Gee, thanks splatster!
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theymos
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May 18, 2012, 06:50:43 AM |
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It's come to a point now that BS&T has been running for so long now that if it is a ponzi (which I don't think it is) and he is planning on running away with the funds, I'd honestly have to give him credit for being able to put together such a long lasting and elaborate scheme. Don't get me wrong, I'd still want my money back, but I'd have to say that he had me fooled pretty well if it was a ponzi.
It hasn't really existed that long. Most Ponzi schemes last at least a few months. Genius Funds lasted more than three years.
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splatster
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May 21, 2012, 11:47:17 PM |
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It's come to a point now that BS&T has been running for so long now that if it is a ponzi (which I don't think it is) and he is planning on running away with the funds, I'd honestly have to give him credit for being able to put together such a long lasting and elaborate scheme. Don't get me wrong, I'd still want my money back, but I'd have to say that he had me fooled pretty well if it was a ponzi.
It hasn't really existed that long. Most Ponzi schemes last at least a few months. Genius Funds lasted more than three years. It's come to a point now that BS&T has been running for so long now that if it is a ponzi (which I don't think it is) and he is planning on running away with the funds, I'd honestly have to give him credit for being able to put together such a long lasting and elaborate scheme. Don't get me wrong, I'd still want my money back, but I'd have to say that he had me fooled pretty well if it was a ponzi.
The point you're trying to make is that... if he's a scammer, then he's a really good scammer? Gee, thanks splatster! What I'm saying is that the amount of effort he'd have to put in to be running a ponzi like this would be insane. Ever for the short period he's been running BS&T, it'd be too much for most to be running a ponzi.
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JoelKatz
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May 22, 2012, 12:13:14 AM |
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What I'm saying is that the amount of effort he'd have to put in to be running a ponzi like this would be insane. Ever for the short period he's been running BS&T, it'd be too much for most to be running a ponzi. The only alternatives to a Ponzi are a legitimate business or some other illegitimate business. Of those three possibilities, a Ponzi probably takes the least effort and provides him the highest potential reward. I would love to hear what you think would be an alternative explanation to a Ponzi scheme that takes less effort.
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PatrickHarnett
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May 22, 2012, 12:28:53 AM |
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What I'm saying is that the amount of effort he'd have to put in to be running a ponzi like this would be insane. Ever for the short period he's been running BS&T, it'd be too much for most to be running a ponzi. The only alternatives to a Ponzi are a legitimate business or some other illegitimate business. Of those three possibilities, a Ponzi probably takes the least effort and provides him the highest potential reward. I would love to hear what you think would be an alternative explanation to a Ponzi scheme that takes less effort. I can think of several, and it just takes a bit of effort for the book-keeping. But I'm not going to disclose what I'm thinking of or doing, because that's not how the world works. You want to get rich, use your resources effectively, and don't give them away. Edit, while sitting and thinking of some variations, there are systems that might not work in all jurisdictions, and some places will have better results than others.
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JoelKatz
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May 22, 2012, 02:43:26 AM |
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What I'm saying is that the amount of effort he'd have to put in to be running a ponzi like this would be insane. Ever for the short period he's been running BS&T, it'd be too much for most to be running a ponzi. The only alternatives to a Ponzi are a legitimate business or some other illegitimate business. Of those three possibilities, a Ponzi probably takes the least effort and provides him the highest potential reward. I would love to hear what you think would be an alternative explanation to a Ponzi scheme that takes less effort. I can think of several, and it just takes a bit of effort for the book-keeping. But I'm not going to disclose what I'm thinking of or doing, because that's not how the world works. You want to get rich, use your resources effectively, and don't give them away. Edit, while sitting and thinking of some variations, there are systems that might not work in all jurisdictions, and some places will have better results than others. I'm sorry, I can't just take your word for it. It's entirely possible that I can shoot every suggestion you make full of holes. Or it's possible some of your suggestions are solid. But "I have secret knowledge that shows you're wrong" is basically worthless. I know of no explanation simpler than a Ponzi scheme. Essentially, a Ponzi is the least effort because all you have to do is find investors and keep them happy to run a Ponzi. Every other scheme requires at least that, plus you actually have to make money. (With a Ponzi, all you do is take loss. You never have to make anything.) I honestly can't conceive of anything simpler than a Ponzi scheme.
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imsaguy
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May 22, 2012, 02:48:42 AM |
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I honestly can't conceive of anything simpler than a Ponzi scheme.
So therefore, we are limited by your myopia?
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finkleshnorts
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May 22, 2012, 03:09:33 AM |
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I vote that it is, for reasons I promise not to go into. It is also making me money.
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PatrickHarnett
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May 22, 2012, 03:56:31 AM |
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I honestly can't conceive of anything simpler than a Ponzi scheme.
So therefore, we are limited by your myopia? That was the point I was trying to make in a couple of places, but that sums it up nice and bluntly. And if you want an example of how to make money pushing it around in circles, why don't you try shifting money back and forward between two (or more) trading companies that wish to save on the transfer fees that the banks charge for currency exchange. I've done that and benefited by several hundred dollars (probably less than a grand) just for personal use. If I was still running cross border businesses, it would be worth a lot more to me. Another idea that works is to pick on jurisdictions where purchase power parity is out of alignment and move currency/goods to take advantage of the arbitrage.
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JoelKatz
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May 22, 2012, 06:03:39 AM |
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I honestly can't conceive of anything simpler than a Ponzi scheme.
So therefore, we are limited by your myopia? Yes, exactly. When a person makes a claim and doesn't support it , the claim is invalid unless we already have some support for it. Since we have no support for it already, the claim is in fact limited by our myopia. I'm arguing against this claim: What I'm saying is that the amount of effort he'd have to put in to be running a ponzi like this would be insane. Ever for the short period he's been running BS&T, it'd be too much for most to be running a ponzi. And my point is that I know of no way it could be true. The person making the claim can, of course, explain some way it can be true. But until then, it's implausible because we know of no way it could be true. It implicitly assumes there is a simple way that requires less effort, but doesn't explain any such way. "I know of a secret way that I won't tell you" doesn't cut it. It's possible, perhaps even likely, that this secret way is also implausible. You can keep your ideas secret, but then you can't present their existence as evidence to bolster your arguments.
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I am an employee of Ripple. Follow me on Twitter @JoelKatz 1Joe1Katzci1rFcsr9HH7SLuHVnDy2aihZ BM-NBM3FRExVJSJJamV9ccgyWvQfratUHgN
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farfiman
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May 22, 2012, 06:26:48 AM |
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"We are just fools. We insanely believe that we can replace one politician with another and something will really change. The ONLY possible way to achieve change is to change the very system of how government functions. Until we are prepared to do that, suck it up for your future belongs to the madness and corruption of politicians." Martin Armstrong
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imsaguy
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May 22, 2012, 01:40:04 PM |
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I honestly can't conceive of anything simpler than a Ponzi scheme.
So therefore, we are limited by your myopia? Yes, exactly. When a person makes a claim and doesn't support it , the claim is invalid unless we already have some support for it. Since we have no support for it already, the claim is in fact limited by our myopia. Where's the support for your claim that he is a ponzi? High interest rate isn't enough. Do you have evidence of pirate failing to pay any returns? Has he been late (longer than say an hour)? Has ANYONE been screwed by pirate? In short, until you provide solid evidence, you're just a bunch of FUD.
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