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Author Topic: Bitcoin Savings and Trust is probably a Ponzi Scheme: A Petition  (Read 24243 times)
dust
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July 27, 2012, 06:25:22 AM
 #241

MMM-2011 is crumbling. Guess we shall soon see if that was the main source of income.

Bets of Bitcoin: Bitcoin Savings and Trust will default before the end of 2012.
How does this bet work if pirate defaults before the bet deadline?  What prevents everyone from piling on bets on the winning side until the the deadline date?  Does betsofbitco.in have a system in place to invalidate all bets after an arbitrary date?

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John (John K.)
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July 27, 2012, 07:04:31 AM
 #242

MMM-2011 is crumbling. Guess we shall soon see if that was the main source of income.

Bets of Bitcoin: Bitcoin Savings and Trust will default before the end of 2012.
How does this bet work if pirate defaults before the bet deadline?  What prevents everyone from piling on bets on the winning side until the the deadline date?  Does betsofbitco.in have a system in place to invalidate all bets after an arbitrary date?
There's a feature called the 'time weight'.

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July 27, 2012, 07:12:33 AM
 #243

There's a feature called the 'time weight'.

The weighing will help reduce the effect of people putting on large bets after the result is known, but such behaviour would still significantly harm the return on winning bets placed in advance, especially if the default happens significantly before the deadline of the bet.

I would hope bets placed after the default became apparent would be cancelled, but I don't see anything about this on their site.

How are the losing bets distributed?

Here is the breakdown of the distribution:
45% goes to the bet winners proportional to their bets.
45% goes to the bet winners proportional to their weighted bets.
5% goes to the user who submitted the bet.
5% goes to the site.

Here is an example:
Let's say total of 10 btc is lost on a statement and there are three users who won:
User A bets 1 btc 6000 minutes before the deadline (weighted bet of 6000), she is also the submitter.
User B bets 3 btc 1000 minutes before the deadline (weighted bet of 3000)
User C bets 1 btc at the last second (weighted bet of 0)
4.5 btc is distributed proportional to bets:
User A gets 0.9, User B gets 2.7, User C gets 0.9.
4.5 btc is distributed proportional to weighted bets:
User A gets 3.0, User B gets 1.5, User C gets 0.
User A also receives 0.5 commission as a submitter.
So in total:
User A profits 4.4, User B profits 4.2, User C profits 0.9, and site profits 0.5.
Obviously every winner also receives back the bet they put.
Take home message: Bet early, win more.

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July 27, 2012, 07:47:39 AM
 #244

MMM-2011 is crumbling. Guess we shall soon see if that was the main source of income.

Bets of Bitcoin: Bitcoin Savings and Trust will default before the end of 2012.
How does this bet work if pirate defaults before the bet deadline?  What prevents everyone from piling on bets on the winning side until the the deadline date?  Does betsofbitco.in have a system in place to invalidate all bets after an arbitrary date?
There's a feature called the 'time weight'.
Assume that pirate defaults half way to the deadline.  It isn't fair that someone can put 10k btc on the default side after a default is confirmed and be at least half as effective as anyone who bet when the outcome was unknown.

The betsofbitco.in system is much better for events with known dates and unknown outcomes such as sports or elections.

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July 27, 2012, 10:09:46 AM
 #245

How does this bet work if pirate defaults before the bet deadline?  What prevents everyone from piling on bets on the winning side until the the deadline date?  Does betsofbitco.in have a system in place to invalidate all bets after an arbitrary date?

Bets of Bitcoin ends bets once they are determined.

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July 27, 2012, 12:46:08 PM
 #246

Just made another shorter-term bet for those who are interested.

Going on last summers crash.... if it's a ponzi, the price fluxuations might scare people away. Not sure Smiley.

Bitcoin Savings and Trust will default before the end of September 2012
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July 27, 2012, 11:53:16 PM
 #247

Just made another shorter-term bet for those who are interested.

Going on last summers crash.... if it's a ponzi, the price fluxuations might scare people away. Not sure Smiley.

Bitcoin Savings and Trust will default before the end of September 2012

Bet deadline: Sept. 28, 2012 end of day Eastern Time
Event date: Sept. 30, 2012 end of day Eastern Time

Thats what makes these bets so pointless.  Set the deadline short and the event in 6 months, and you might an interesting bet.

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July 27, 2012, 11:55:18 PM
 #248

Just made another shorter-term bet for those who are interested.

Going on last summers crash.... if it's a ponzi, the price fluxuations might scare people away. Not sure Smiley.

Bitcoin Savings and Trust will default before the end of September 2012

Bet deadline: Sept. 28, 2012 end of day Eastern Time
Event date: Sept. 30, 2012 end of day Eastern Time

Thats what makes these bets so pointless.  Set the deadline short and the event in 6 months, and you might an interesting bet.

Good point, although, afaik late betters receive less %.

I may make a 2nd one default before end of October, with bet close end first week of September, this might drive more interest?
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July 28, 2012, 12:37:13 AM
 #249

I believe, to the best of my knowledge, that given the absence of any public financial disclosure and an extremely high rate of return that the Bitcoin Savings and Trust is a Ponzi scheme.

I'd like to make this a forum-based petition of bitcointalk users who agree with this.  I don't want to do a poll, because I want people to commit their user name to this statement.

I'm interested in seeing how many people agree with me.   I'd prefer to have any debate over this issue in a separate thread.

My theory is that if you want to develop community, then you need to figure out who to trust and what is a scam.  Bitcoin has suffered from too many scams.

So if you agree, reply and say "I agree".



I agree / started my own thread pointing them all out

we must at least contain these ponzis outside the marketplace > lending category - it's making BTC look foolish

I wish you didn't start another thread.  We have a million of them already.  Do you think by starting another thread you did any good. 

this thread that I started:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=94900.0

is for different reasons than this thread:

1) list ALL ponzis & ponzi derivatives
2) list All BTC scams of any sort I find here
3) start petition to get these threads of out the Marketplace > lending category.  "speculation" won't do either - these are scams, not risky investments.  no possible winning outcome for 90+% of investors.


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July 29, 2012, 12:25:16 AM
 #250

BST isn't an investment. We know that.
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September 08, 2012, 03:06:07 AM
 #251

According to my research, his real name is most likely one of the following:

Ends Thorns
Dents Horns
Tends Horns
Sends Thorn
Sends North
Shorn Dents


And Joel was so close!

Trendon Shavers = Servants Horned
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