Bitcoin Forum
December 04, 2016, 12:25:23 PM *
News: To be able to use the next phase of the beta forum software, please ensure that your email address is correct/functional.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 [12] 13 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Bitcoin Savings and Trust is probably a Ponzi Scheme: A Petition  (Read 24214 times)
coblee
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1078


firstbits.com/1ce5j


View Profile WWW
May 24, 2012, 03:48:42 AM
 #221

My guess is having access to bitcoins instantly is important to his buyers, so he needs to have a large capital of bitcoins readily available. Here's my reasoning why he borrows instead of uses his own coins: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82849.msg916286#msg916286
Effectively, you're saying that it's a huge gamble that the price of Bitcoin will go way down. He wants to sell people's coins today and pay them back with coins tomorrow, when he expects that they'll be worth less. But that doesn't work for two reasons:

1) It incurs huge, needless risk. If he's holding lots of investors' coins and the price of Bitcoin goes way up, all those profits belong to his investors, not him. If he holds 15,000 Bitcoins that have been invested and the price of Bitcoins doubles, he's much worse off. He now has to acquire Bitcoins to pay back withdrawals at twice the price. You don't hedge by holding an asset.

2) You don't need to pay 10%/month to short Bitcoins.


He's not shorting bitcoins. You should read this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82849.180

Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
JoelKatz
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1386


Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.


View Profile WWW
May 24, 2012, 04:05:10 AM
 #222

He's not shorting bitcoins. You should read this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82849.180
The thread says he's shorting Bitcoins.

The thread says:

1) He borrows Bitcoins.

2) He sells them.

3) Later, he buys Bitcoins to pay back those he borrowed from.

That is basically the definition of shorting.

Quote
In finance, short selling (also known as shorting or going short) is the practice of selling assets, usually securities, that have been borrowed from a third party (usually a broker) with the intention of buying identical assets back at a later date to return to that third party.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_%28finance%29

I am an employee of Ripple.
1Joe1Katzci1rFcsr9HH7SLuHVnDy2aihZ BM-NBM3FRExVJSJJamV9ccgyWvQfratUHgN
coblee
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1078


firstbits.com/1ce5j


View Profile WWW
May 24, 2012, 04:54:59 AM
 #223

He's not shorting bitcoins. You should read this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82849.180
The thread says he's shorting Bitcoins.

The thread says:

1) He borrows Bitcoins.

2) He sells them.

3) Later, he buys Bitcoins to pay back those he borrowed from.

That is basically the definition of shorting.

Quote
In finance, short selling (also known as shorting or going short) is the practice of selling assets, usually securities, that have been borrowed from a third party (usually a broker) with the intention of buying identical assets back at a later date to return to that third party.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_%28finance%29

Normally when you say short sell, you are talking about selling at market price and buy back in the future hopefully at a lower price. He's not doing this. He's selling bitcoin at a higher than market price and try to buy the bitcoins back at a price around market price when he sold the bitcoins.  And he hedges bitcoin price rising.

So in normal short selling, you only make money if prie goes down. In his case, he should make money either way if his hedging is done correctly.

BoardGameCoin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 283



View Profile
May 24, 2012, 05:00:24 AM
 #224

After consideration, I'm pretty sure Pirate is trading to take advantage of volatility in the market. If he can make the 'buy at x-0.10', 'sell at x +0.10' cycle (4% increase) a few times a week he easily hits his mark. It's the only legal approach that seems to fit the pattern. My guess is he has some code to help with his trading. His main risk would be a rise in bitcoin price while he's on the 'sell' side of the pattern, so he probably has a band above the sell band where he would buy back in and ride it until volatility returns.

I'm selling great Minion Games like The Manhattan Project, Kingdom of Solomon and Venture Forth at 4% off retail starting June 2012. PM me or go to my thread in the Marketplace if you're interested.

For Settlers/Dominion/Carcassone etc., I do email gift cards on Amazon for a 5% fee. PM if you're interested.
JoelKatz
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1386


Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.


View Profile WWW
May 24, 2012, 12:44:49 PM
 #225

Normally when you say short sell, you are talking about selling at market price and buy back in the future hopefully at a lower price. He's not doing this. He's selling bitcoin at a higher than market price and try to buy the bitcoins back at a price around market price when he sold the bitcoins.  And he hedges bitcoin price rising.

So in normal short selling, you only make money if prie goes down. In his case, he should make money either way if his hedging is done correctly.
I explained why this makes no sense -- he takes a 10% loss on the borrowing, takes extra risk in case the price of Bitcoins goes up, and gains no benefit by doing so because he could get the same protection on downside risk (without the unlimited upside risk) just by short selling. It's completely irrational.

You *are* essentially arguing that he's paying 10% to short, taking extra risk in the bargain, and losing 100% of the upside potential of an increase in the value of the coins he holds. That makes no sense.

I am an employee of Ripple.
1Joe1Katzci1rFcsr9HH7SLuHVnDy2aihZ BM-NBM3FRExVJSJJamV9ccgyWvQfratUHgN
PatrickHarnett
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518



View Profile
May 24, 2012, 07:16:45 PM
 #226

After consideration, I'm pretty sure Pirate is trading to take advantage of volatility in the market. If he can make the 'buy at x-0.10', 'sell at x +0.10' cycle (4% increase) a few times a week he easily hits his mark. It's the only legal approach that seems to fit the pattern. My guess is he has some code to help with his trading. His main risk would be a rise in bitcoin price while he's on the 'sell' side of the pattern, so he probably has a band above the sell band where he would buy back in and ride it until volatility returns.

Less likely - tracing the coins and transactions does not lead to an exchange like Gox (at least on my looking at the money flows).  I concluded it doesn't hit the main trading pages months ago because it would show up quite quickly.  Also, if you talk to people trying to extract a decent number of coins or dollars from Gox, you would find out how difficult that is - and why many people avoid it.
BoardGameCoin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 283



View Profile
May 24, 2012, 07:49:59 PM
 #227

After consideration, I'm pretty sure Pirate is trading to take advantage of volatility in the market. If he can make the 'buy at x-0.10', 'sell at x +0.10' cycle (4% increase) a few times a week he easily hits his mark. It's the only legal approach that seems to fit the pattern. My guess is he has some code to help with his trading. His main risk would be a rise in bitcoin price while he's on the 'sell' side of the pattern, so he probably has a band above the sell band where he would buy back in and ride it until volatility returns.

Less likely - tracing the coins and transactions does not lead to an exchange like Gox (at least on my looking at the money flows).  I concluded it doesn't hit the main trading pages months ago because it would show up quite quickly.  Also, if you talk to people trying to extract a decent number of coins or dollars from Gox, you would find out how difficult that is - and why many people avoid it.

He's obligated to pay interest back in bitcoins, so difficulty/slowness of trading to USD doesn't factor towards his liabilities. I'm curious how you were able to track transactions, I'm guessing you're an investor so you were able to follow your own coins, but how can you differentiate a mtgox transaction from a non-mtgox transaction?

I could easily be wrong, its just my current working hypothesis.

-bgc

I'm selling great Minion Games like The Manhattan Project, Kingdom of Solomon and Venture Forth at 4% off retail starting June 2012. PM me or go to my thread in the Marketplace if you're interested.

For Settlers/Dominion/Carcassone etc., I do email gift cards on Amazon for a 5% fee. PM if you're interested.
PatrickHarnett
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518



View Profile
May 24, 2012, 08:14:26 PM
 #228



He's obligated to pay interest back in bitcoins, so difficulty/slowness of trading to USD doesn't factor towards his liabilities. I'm curious how you were able to track transactions, I'm guessing you're an investor so you were able to follow your own coins, but how can you differentiate a mtgox transaction from a non-mtgox transaction?

I could easily be wrong, its just my current working hypothesis.

-bgc

Even people shifting large numbers of coins have faced Gox problems, it is not a simple USD/BTC issue.  Plus, if you believed BS&T was simply manipulating Gox, they would dominate the exchange with the number of coins that would need to be traded.

Might pay for people to re-read the BS&T thread, there is some interesting stuff in there, and you will find my posts from December when I opened my account.  So, yes, I can trace my own coins, and also some others.
Coinoisseur
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 252


View Profile
June 11, 2012, 05:39:05 PM
 #229

http://news.yahoo.com/back-oblivion-russian-fraudster-pushes-scam-062530584.html

MMM-2011 is crumbling. Guess we shall soon see if that was the main source of income.
elux
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1454



View Profile
June 11, 2012, 08:29:48 PM
 #230

MMM-2011 is crumbling. Guess we shall soon see if that was the main source of income.

Bets of Bitcoin: Bitcoin Savings and Trust will default before the end of 2012.
Raoul Duke
aka psy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1442



View Profile
June 11, 2012, 08:35:47 PM
 #231

MMM-2011 is crumbling. Guess we shall soon see if that was the main source of income.

Bets of Bitcoin: Bitcoin Savings and Trust will default before the end of 2012.

So... what was wrong with this one? http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=349

P4man
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 504



View Profile
June 11, 2012, 08:41:34 PM
 #232

So... what was wrong with this one? http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=349

The date. Clearly money is still flowing in through all the passthrough bonds, I cant see it default very soon even if it is a ponzi. However, I will be betting some coins on the longer term bet, if for no other reason as hedging Smiley.

Raoul Duke
aka psy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1442



View Profile
June 11, 2012, 08:49:35 PM
 #233

So... what was wrong with this one? http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=349

The date. Clearly money is still flowing in through all the passthrough bonds, I cant see it default very soon even if it is a ponzi. However, I will be betting some coins on the longer term bet, if for no other reason as hedging Smiley.

Oh, I get it. It's like those guys who say every year that their sports team will win. Eventually they'll get it right.
Swell.

ShadowAlexey
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 967



View Profile
June 11, 2012, 09:44:45 PM
 #234

May be pirate will just close his bank and drawback everything to us?

NVCBank. BTC/LTC/NVC accepted.
My Bitmessage address: BM-Bc9dpmehK1ihtgHgXKVypTsDwmL4czMx .
฿: 1ShadowAM654zohrsjeso5pf9Sr4x4uYd Ł: LShadowAUpAy4r3yb2skZDe4vWFrLMNGtT ₪: 4ShadowA3DqkGv5zjLukcm88wSzvhbatsk
tgmarks
Donator
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 490


View Profile
June 13, 2012, 11:36:04 PM
 #235

figure I otta keep an eye on this in the event someone has something real and factual to say.

imsaguy
General failure and former
VIP
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 574

Don't send me a pm unless you gpg encrypt it.


View Profile WWW
June 14, 2012, 12:42:42 AM
 #236

figure I otta keep an eye on this in the event someone has something real and factual to say.

Is there some sort of contest going on that no one told me
to see who can come up with the most convoluted way of
saying 'sub' ?


shortstop.

Coming Soon!™ © imsaguy 2011-2013, All rights reserved.

EIEIO:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60117.0

Shades Minoco Collection Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=65989
Payment Address: http://btc.to/5r6
Vandroiy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1036


View Profile
June 27, 2012, 07:51:54 PM
 #237

Bump, somehow missed this thread before.

I agree.
ErebusBat
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 560

I am the one who knocks


View Profile
June 27, 2012, 09:31:34 PM
 #238

Bump, somehow missed this thread before.

I agree.

You agree with the previos post?

Scuba diving

Pirate does have an island Tongue

░▒▓█ Coinroll.it - 1% House Edge Dice Game █▓▒░ • Coinroll Thread • *FREE* 100 BTC Raffle

Signup for CEX.io BitFury exchange and get GHS Instantly!  Don't wait for shipping, mine NOW!
Micon
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1218


I'm not the law, but I represent justice


View Profile WWW
July 27, 2012, 12:58:57 AM
 #239

I believe, to the best of my knowledge, that given the absence of any public financial disclosure and an extremely high rate of return that the Bitcoin Savings and Trust is a Ponzi scheme.

I'd like to make this a forum-based petition of bitcointalk users who agree with this.  I don't want to do a poll, because I want people to commit their user name to this statement.

I'm interested in seeing how many people agree with me.   I'd prefer to have any debate over this issue in a separate thread.

My theory is that if you want to develop community, then you need to figure out who to trust and what is a scam.  Bitcoin has suffered from too many scams.

So if you agree, reply and say "I agree".



I agree / started my own thread pointing them all out

we must at least contain these ponzis outside the marketplace > lending category - it's making BTC look foolish

Chairman SwCPoker.eu Bitcoin Poker 2.0 |  Pro Poker Player  |  blog & podcas DonkDown.com | @BryanMicon | 2015- PGP Key
hashking
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 308


View Profile
July 27, 2012, 01:49:06 AM
 #240

I believe, to the best of my knowledge, that given the absence of any public financial disclosure and an extremely high rate of return that the Bitcoin Savings and Trust is a Ponzi scheme.

I'd like to make this a forum-based petition of bitcointalk users who agree with this.  I don't want to do a poll, because I want people to commit their user name to this statement.

I'm interested in seeing how many people agree with me.   I'd prefer to have any debate over this issue in a separate thread.

My theory is that if you want to develop community, then you need to figure out who to trust and what is a scam.  Bitcoin has suffered from too many scams.

So if you agree, reply and say "I agree".



I agree / started my own thread pointing them all out

we must at least contain these ponzis outside the marketplace > lending category - it's making BTC look foolish

I wish you didn't start another thread.  We have a million of them already.  Do you think by starting another thread you did any good. 
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 [12] 13 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!