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Author Topic: Bitcoin Savings and Trust is probably a Ponzi Scheme: A Petition  (Read 24236 times)
PatrickHarnett
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May 22, 2012, 03:56:31 AM
 #201


I honestly can't conceive of anything simpler than a Ponzi scheme.


So therefore, we are limited by your myopia?

That was the point I was trying to make in a couple of places, but that sums it up nice and bluntly.

And if you want an example of how to make money pushing it around in circles, why don't you try shifting money back and forward between two (or more) trading companies that wish to save on the transfer fees that the banks charge for currency exchange.  I've done that and benefited by several hundred dollars (probably less than a grand) just for personal use.  If I was still running cross border businesses, it would be worth a lot more to me.

Another idea that works is to pick on jurisdictions where purchase power parity is out of alignment and move currency/goods to take advantage of the arbitrage.
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May 22, 2012, 06:03:39 AM
 #202


I honestly can't conceive of anything simpler than a Ponzi scheme.


So therefore, we are limited by your myopia?

Yes, exactly. When a person makes a claim and doesn't support it , the claim is invalid unless we already have some support for it. Since we have no support for it already, the claim is in fact limited by our myopia.


I'm arguing against this claim:

Quote
What I'm saying is that the amount of effort he'd have to put in to be running a ponzi like this would be insane.  Ever for the short period he's been running BS&T, it'd be too much for most to be running a ponzi.
And my point is that I know of no way it could be true. The person making the claim can, of course, explain some way it can be true. But until then, it's implausible because we know of no way it could be true. It implicitly assumes there is a simple way that requires less effort, but doesn't explain any such way.

"I know of a secret way that I won't tell you" doesn't cut it. It's possible, perhaps even likely, that this secret way is also implausible. You can keep your ideas secret, but then you can't present their existence as evidence to bolster your arguments.

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farfiman
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May 22, 2012, 06:26:48 AM
 #203




Taken from here:

http://www.bitcoinmoney.com/post/23499116232/glbse-stock-market

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May 22, 2012, 01:40:04 PM
 #204


I honestly can't conceive of anything simpler than a Ponzi scheme.


So therefore, we are limited by your myopia?

Yes, exactly. When a person makes a claim and doesn't support it , the claim is invalid unless we already have some support for it. Since we have no support for it already, the claim is in fact limited by our myopia.


Where's the support for your claim that he is a ponzi?  High interest rate isn't enough.  Do you have evidence of pirate failing to pay any returns? Has he been late (longer than say an hour)? Has ANYONE been screwed by pirate?  In short, until you provide solid evidence, you're just a bunch of FUD.

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JoelKatz
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May 22, 2012, 03:36:33 PM
 #205

Where's the support for your claim that he is a ponzi?
I never said that he was a Ponzi. What I did say is that I don't know of anything else it could possibly be. I freely admit that that means it could be something I don't know of or can't think of. I've invited others to make suggestions in this thread, people have, and I've explained why none of those suggestions actually make any sense. (Did you somewhere mention something other than a Ponzi that it could possibly be? If so, I missed it. Please, I'd love to hear any other theories you have.)

I honestly believe it is more likely that it is something other than a Ponzi, that I cannot think of or do not know of, then that it is a Ponzi. But what this means is that it is impossible to estimate the risk. I submit that anyone who invests in something where the risk cannot possibly be estimated is an idiot. Further, they are an immoral idiot because they have no idea what the consequence of their actions are -- they don't know what they're funding.

Quote
High interest rate isn't enough.  Do you have evidence of pirate failing to pay any returns? Has he been late (longer than say an hour)? Has ANYONE been screwed by pirate?  In short, until you provide solid evidence, you're just a bunch of FUD.
If you want to cite specific claims I've made that I've failed to support, feel free to do so. But you've just made a list of claims I haven't made and then claimed that this somehow refutes the arguments I did make.

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May 22, 2012, 03:52:16 PM
 #206

Where's the support for your claim that he is a ponzi?
I never said that he was a Ponzi. What I did say is that I don't know of anything else it could possibly be. I freely admit that that means it could be something I don't know of or can't think of. I've invited others to make suggestions in this thread, people have, and I've explained why none of those suggestions actually make any sense. (Did you somewhere mention something other than a Ponzi that it could possibly be? If so, I missed it. Please, I'd love to hear any other theories you have.)

Jesus.  Pirate is Jesus.  We can't prove nor disprove.  Satisfied?

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JoelKatz
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May 23, 2012, 02:28:39 AM
 #207

Jesus.  Pirate is Jesus.  We can't prove nor disprove.  Satisfied?
I'm pretty sure you're joking. But of course I can't imagine any way that could be possible. If you're trying to suggest a possibility, you have to explain how it is in fact possible.

The issue is not proof or disprove of the truth of the claim. The issue is proof that the thing claimed is possible.

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May 23, 2012, 02:50:13 AM
 #208

Jesus.  Pirate is Jesus.  We can't prove nor disprove.  Satisfied?
I'm pretty sure you're joking. But of course I can't imagine any way that could be possible. If you're trying to suggest a possibility, you have to explain how it is in fact possible.

The issue is not proof or disprove of the truth of the claim. The issue is proof that the thing claimed is possible.

How is it not possible that pirate is Jesus?

Coming Soon!™ © imsaguy 2011-2013, All rights reserved.

EIEIO:
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Shades Minoco Collection Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=65989
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JoelKatz
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May 23, 2012, 04:43:21 AM
 #209

How is it not possible that pirate is Jesus?
The burden is on the claimant to show possibility. But for one thing, Jesus died a long time ago.

I am an employee of Ripple.
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BinaryMage
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May 23, 2012, 05:42:41 AM
 #210

How is it not possible that pirate is Jesus?
The burden is on the claimant to show possibility. But for one thing, Jesus died a long time ago.

That's what they want you to believe.

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May 23, 2012, 05:48:18 AM
 #211

i keep waiting for luke jr. to show...
P4man
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May 23, 2012, 06:55:36 AM
 #212

Id like to point out that most backers of Pirate were claiming he was involved in money laundering and/or other (drug related) illegal activities. Pirate has recently categorically denied this. I wonder if those people are calling Pirate a liar or if they are now as clueless as the rest of us about his actual business model.

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May 23, 2012, 07:15:50 AM
 #213

Hey hey, he might just be selling coins, why not?
And pls give a link to his post.

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May 23, 2012, 08:17:27 AM
 #214

Hey hey, he might just be selling coins, why not?
Because he pays people their interest in coins. So he must, on net, *acquire* coins. I have tried to imagine how such a system could work where he obtains his investment in coins and also pays out interest in coins. I couldn't do it. If you have an idea, please share.

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May 23, 2012, 08:20:12 AM
 #215

Hey hey, he might just be selling coins, why not?
Because he pays people their interest in coins. So he must, on net, *acquire* coins. I have tried to imagine how such a system could work where he obtains his investment in coins and also pays out interest in coins. I couldn't do it. If you have an idea, please share.
What stops him from buying coins on birges?
Daily volume of gox if 62kBTC,how much do you think he needs to buy daily?)

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May 23, 2012, 08:33:48 AM
 #216

Hey hey, he might just be selling coins, why not?
Because he pays people their interest in coins. So he must, on net, *acquire* coins. I have tried to imagine how such a system could work where he obtains his investment in coins and also pays out interest in coins. I couldn't do it. If you have an idea, please share.

Well, he's said previously that he's selling coins locally to groups of buyers. So if you accept that, all he does is sell coins at a markup to people for cash, deposit that cash to mtgox, trade for btc, pay interest to depositors, and whatever is left is his profit.

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May 23, 2012, 08:40:07 AM
 #217

What stops him from buying coins on birges?
Daily volume of gox if 62kBTC,how much do you think he needs to buy daily?)

Thats the point.. why would he borrow at an insane interest rates if he has to buy coins at exchanges anyway. All that changes is that he has to buy even more.

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May 23, 2012, 08:43:24 AM
 #218

What stops him from buying coins on birges?
Daily volume of gox if 62kBTC,how much do you think he needs to buy daily?)

Thats the point.. why would he borrow at an insane interest rates if he has to buy coins at exchanges anyway. All that changes is that he has to buy even more.

My guess is having access to bitcoins instantly is important to his buyers, so he needs to have a large capital of bitcoins readily available. Here's my reasoning why he borrows instead of uses his own coins: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82849.msg916286#msg916286

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May 23, 2012, 09:06:10 AM
 #219

My guess is having access to bitcoins instantly is important to his buyers, so he needs to have a large capital of bitcoins readily available.

So he can buy them beforehand. After all this time, if his business works only half as well as he claims, surely he has the capital required and then some. Yet for some reason he seems to need constantly more, not less.

Quote
Here's my reasoning why he borrows instead of uses his own coins: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82849.msg916286#msg916286

Sounds like a very expensive way to hedge against a BTC price collapse. Going short on bitcoinica would make far more sense. Not too mention he could just cash out his profits in $.



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May 23, 2012, 10:16:10 AM
 #220

My guess is having access to bitcoins instantly is important to his buyers, so he needs to have a large capital of bitcoins readily available. Here's my reasoning why he borrows instead of uses his own coins: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82849.msg916286#msg916286
Effectively, you're saying that it's a huge gamble that the price of Bitcoin will go way down. He wants to sell people's coins today and pay them back with coins tomorrow, when he expects that they'll be worth less. But that doesn't work for two reasons:

1) It incurs huge, needless risk. If he's holding lots of investors' coins and the price of Bitcoin goes way up, all those profits belong to his investors, not him. If he holds 15,000 Bitcoins that have been invested and the price of Bitcoins doubles, he's much worse off. He now has to acquire Bitcoins to pay back withdrawals at twice the price. You don't hedge by holding an asset.

2) You don't need to pay 10%/month to short Bitcoins.

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