Crypto Kingdom - 1991 Retro Virtual World(City)

[CK_Zephyrus]

For the record, for those who haven't yet found the uncensored thread.

§2.  Light has not been able to gather their forces, rather has succumbed to the lure of withdrawals and general lethargy;

Does that mean "people have actually had the gall to expect you wouldn't run with the bitcoin" ?

§4.  The blockade of accounts has made it impossible to "pay the debts" since both the ledger and the means to pay have been corrupted and/or rendered unusable;

Again, as I said before, you are free to give an argument as to why that is the case. Again, as I said before, if you find someone willing to buy some of your in game assets, this could be arranged (with the money going to your creditors directly).

§5.  The community has been torn apart in a way that resembles permanent division;

Again, as I said before, I wish it to not be permanent. Again, as I said before, I wish you would cease and desist in your destructive decision and refund your creditors, upon which you would get full access back. It seems like common sense, and yet you rebel at every single step. Until then, the community is split, you on one side, and everyone else on the other.

§103.  All assets and liabilities (except M3) of the (blockaded) Light forces will be abandoned in CK:Ultima and resurrected in CK:Universe; M3 will be withdrawn directly from Saddam's treasury (contingent that the treasury is still in Light);

It seems self evident that liabilities cannot be abandoned without agreement from your creditors.

It is most unfortunate that you chose to destroy what has been accomplished so far. However, it is now becoming more and more apparent that you may not have what it takes to build something like this, and that the lure of 700 bitcoin was too much for you. Still, the door will stay open to you to return to the flock, upon repayment of your debts.

Seriously, why the theft, the lies, the mockery, the abject self sabotage ? Do you wish to accomplish nothing with your life, content with wallowing in whatever booze and drugs you can get your hands on until death finally takes you ? Only you can choose to break this cycle of decay, but it takes will, and honesty, which you had, I think.

[rpietila]

Update:

HRH Prince PJ contacted HIGH Prince Zechariah with offer to restore access to accounts in Ultima. While it is possible that the State of the World is corrupted beyond repair during the Rebellion, we need to investigate whether this is the case, or only a presupposition.

More updates follow. I am in Korea (JW Marriot Seoul Gangnam) so this will reflect in the timezones (8 pm here).

The dissolution of Saddam's depository nevertheless seems a prudent course of action, and I will await for contact and intend to withdraw all M3.

HH The Archduke Paul (of Soul-Gangnam) is in contact with the intelligence community of the Koreas, and will provide assistance upon my request.

[proride]

Update:

HRH Prince PJ contacted HIGH Prince Zechariah with offer to restore access to accounts in Ultima. While it is possible that the State of the World is corrupted beyond repair during the Rebellion, we need to investigate whether this is the case, or only a presupposition.

More updates follow. I am in Korea (JW Marriot Seoul Gangnam) so this will reflect in the timezones (8 pm here).

The dissolution of Saddam's depository nevertheless seems a prudent course of action, and I will await for contact and intend to withdraw all M3.

HH The Archduke Paul (of Soul-Gangnam) is in contact with the intelligence community of the Koreas, and will provide assistance upon my request.

Am I in Universe?

[Ucy]

Is this empty or it's just my device?
Seems everyone is responding to something. Wonder if there's something everyone sees that my device can't pick.
Topic looks very interesting

[rpietila]

And now for something completely different:

Expected value (EV) is the probability-weighted mean (average) of possible future outcomes.

We are talking Bitcoin, and about 5 years timeframe here, so 2020.

1. Let's start by everyone asking themselves: "What is the probability of Bitcoin price being lower in 2020 than what it is now?"

This scenario includes everything from total technology/network failure to a total breakdown of law and order, or unanimous draconian regulation by every government in the world to kill off everyone who has possession of a string of letters or part thereof, to just a multi-year downtrend in Bitcoin price coupled or uncoupled with increased adoption (2014 is a prime example that price (-80%) and adoption (+100%) do not correlate 1:1).

In a meeting with respected people in the area, the answers ranged from 20-50%, with a clear bias to 20%. Let's use 25% as a median. (The longest time Bitcoin has ever been below its ATH is <2 years, so history is not supporting 5 years of flatlining really.)

2. Then, "What is the probability that we will not reach the ATH in 5 years?"

Counting the major surges alone, we have set a new ATH at $32, $266 and $1242. The first two were taken, each with a 5x or 10x. Now, to be realistic, it may happen that they were isolated incidents, not happening again, but also it's possible that they were not, and there is some merit in the coin, the technology, etc. Of course I could give (and have given) several fundamental reasonings why I believe the latter, but for the purpose of this, let's keep it simple and assume that it can as well happen or not, so 50%.

This naturally includes the case 1., therefore the scenario "anything between 200-1,000 USD" is 25% probable.

3. Now, "if the ATH is reached, what will likely happen?"

Every time previously, once the old ATH was taken, a quick upsurge taking the price to 5x-10x higher in a few weeks followed. Since we are talking conservatively here, let's assume that in half of the cases, it will reach less than that, and the other half is more than that. (In 5 years, which is enough time to fit in the entire Bitcoin price history so far from $0.005 to $200, it is a conservative approach.)

4. Therefore, "In 25% probability of the total scenario universe, Bitcoin will go to higher than $10k in 5 years. How high?"

This is anybody's guess. Until now, the great majority of people who have taken a stand on the subject of Bitcoin price development in any reasonably long-term (2+ years) timeframe, have been proven spectacularly wrong. Bitcoin has exceeded the expectations of most observers.

To assess the average value of a bitcoin in this fat-tail scenario (a scenario where the expected value is dominated by the inordinately high outcomes with low and uncertain probabilities) is difficult, but let's just zoom 2 bubbles forward and assume a 5x on top of 10k.

=>

What we get is 4 scenarios with equal probability:
- $0-200 (mean: $50)
- $200-$1,000 (mean: $500)
- $1k-$10k (mean: $3,000)
- $10k+ (mean: $50k)

The EV for BTCUSD in 2020 is therefore $13,400/BTC. This is 6,000% (60x) higher than the current price. Even if we made gross errors in assessing the probabilities, it's hard to argue that the scenarios themselves are ill-constructed. It is very hard to make holding a position in Bitcoin a losing proposition from here. As people realize what I am saying, it is likely that this will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Beware - 5 years is a long time!  

[Vigens]

Auction for first ever pure silver moneroj coin 1KingCK

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2059427.0

[rpietila]

The thread is opened for the reason that people would go on in their path towards more understanding.

For a change, I am interested in writing simple word that anyone can understand.

If you want difficult word, please read Voice again from start, or meditate upon how M2 broke the validity of M, XMR, BTC, USD/EUR and physical PM all in one go (in March).

Please wake up.

I do not intend to do much more signs and wonders, because if you don't get even the basics here, it truly does not matter if I scattered my remaining money to the poor and let my body be burned in fire (as Bible also says in 1 Cor 13).

It feels a bit hard to have graduated from the usefulness of money when you big babies still want it. I will make the next money thing, but it will be the last. People will wake up. If anything, I will compensate the ones who had Markka at the time of the rebellion. Does not make sense to pay those who did exactly opposite to what I said. So consider that no one can do anything, the fork is already in the past.

Enjoy life rather, and meditate upon my post history. You will get it.

[rpietila]

UPDATE: EV ANALYSIS FOR BITCOIN



Expected value (EV) is the probability-weighted mean (average) of possible future outcomes.

We are talking Bitcoin, and about 5 years timeframe here, so 8/2022.

1. Let's start by everyone asking themselves: "What is the probability of Bitcoin price being lower in 2022 than what it is now?"

This scenario includes everything from total technology/network failure to a total breakdown of law and order, or unanimous draconian regulation by every government in the world to kill off everyone who has possession of a string of letters or part thereof, to just a multi-year downtrend in Bitcoin price coupled or uncoupled with increased adoption (2014 is a prime example that price (-80%) and adoption (+100%) do not correlate 1:1).

In a meeting with respected people in the area, 2.5 years ago, the answers ranged from 20-50%, with a clear bias to 20%. On the other hand, the 2.5 years elapsed since, act as a further proof to the downside (smallness of this figure). Let's use 33% as a median nevertheless, since we ARE at ATH now, which might hinder new ppls from buying unless properly instructed (as in here). (The longest time Bitcoin has ever been below its ATH is ~3 years, so history is not supporting 5 years of flatlining really, despite ath'ish cap now.)

2. Then, "What is the probability that we will not reach a new, higher, ATH in 5 years?"

Counting the major surges alone, we have set a new ATH at $32, $266, $1242 and '$4350 and counting'. The first three were taken, each with a 5x or 10x, and 3.5x (and counting). Now, to be realistic, it may still happen that they all were isolated incidents, not happening again, but also it's possible that they were not, and there is some merit in the coin, the technology, etc. Of course I could give (and have given) several fundamental reasonings why I believe the latter, but for the purpose of this, let's keep it simple and assume that it can as well happen or not, so 67%.

This naturally includes the case 1., therefore this scenario, and also the (first) that the price will be lower than $4,000, are equally probable as the remaining, >"New ATH" (higher than the one set this year).

3. Now, "what will then happen?"

To assess the average value of a bitcoin in 5 years, we will have to play out the sub-probabilities of different outcomes 'inside' the scenarios outlined above.

=>

What we get is 3 scenarios with equal probability:
i) $0-4000
ii) $4000-'2017 ath'
iii) '2017 ath' ++

So, therefore, we dismantle each of them:

i) about $1000, esp considering that '0' occupies a swath of this scenario

ii) Utilising Stetson-Harrison method to my advantage, I decide that $7,000 is exactly in the middle of $4k and $10k (which the method decided to make the chism between this, and the most obscenely profitable scenario: exactly at $10k).

iii) Since 'anything is possible', the scenario universe may as well be collapsed to a round figure $50k average, for this scenario. The doubters may eat cake, as usual(x2).

The EV for BTCUSD in 2022 is therefore $58k/3 = $19,300/BTC. This is 400% (5x) higher than the current price. Even if we made gross errors in assessing the probabilities, it's hard to argue that the scenarios themselves are ill-constructed. It is very hard to make holding a position in Bitcoin a losing proposition from here. As people realize what I am saying, it is likely that this will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Beware - 5 years is a long time!  

(Earlier versions of this method have been used to justify non-holding in 10/2010, and holding, in 11/2011, 3/2013, 2/2015.)

[xxnewbiecoinerxx]

Risto, what is your take today on exponential trendline of btc? If history repeats then IMO 30k+ is highly probable this cycle.

[proride]

Hello! Im from outdoring now, would you gove me the link what I have to do to replace all holdings to new game and oyher instructions, please.

[FenrirCK]

Risto, what is your take today on exponential trendline of btc? If history repeats then IMO 30k+ is highly probable this cycle.

His take is that you should invest in Markka instead, pieces of paper our Enlightened Master graciously printed. Deposit all your moneroyz (all legitimate darkness currencies accepted) to him immediately and the Opened Third Eye of the UnIv3r$€ will 1,000,000x your deposit, guaranteed.
Love,
F

[rpietila]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJs28QYi9ng

HIM TVA Dragon orders homage to be paid to HIGH Zechariah's gravestone.

The action involves the change of ownership and location of all the free-trading flowers in 25-mile radius and the space-time gets distorted. The Dragon sighs:

"When will I ever learn... or do I need to code the Universe from scratch?"

Adding:

"This country needs quite some additional healing. Let us see what comes up. We have plenty of important business going on with the Ministry of Plenty and other initiatives, and it would be sad if we could not make the matters here straight."

[smooth]

Pay your debts

[rpietila]

Pay your debts

YH, that's the plan. How could we move on with the process?

[binaryFate]

Pay your debts

YH, that's the plan. How could we move on with the process?

This is good to hear.
I believe to be one of the largest creditor of yours (at least related to the abrupt end of CK and withdrawals you suddenly did not honor).
You owe me 39.223 BTC plus interest. I am ok to forget the interests if you can resolve the 39 BTC.

[rpietila]

Listen to Music.

[binaryFate]

Listen to Music.

Keep going and find peace.

And pay your debt to me.

[Vectra]

so, risto scammed people on the end. who would have thought

[BayAreaCoins]

so, risto scammed people on the end. who would have thought

I'm glad I chalked this up as a gay little project and didn't put 39 Bitcoins into it.   

It makes me feel better about my 60 Bitcoin Huntercoin investment!

[Jason.W]

so, risto scammed people on the end. who would have thought

I'm glad I chalked this up as a gay little project and didn't put 39 Bitcoins into it.   

It makes me feel better about my 60 Bitcoin Huntercoin investment!

I mean sure but risty won't get to steal so much more until he pays his denbts. Such is the life of a thief.

The funny thing is he's stuck in such a loop i doubt he'd even realize what (s)he, in fact, stole, and should, in fact, return to its rightful owner(s).

He's got many years thought, so no rush. It's all on him anyways. Such is the life of a .. silver mirror.