Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value

[SeksiStarlord]

In this OP I will always post the last updated chart:

Update 2017-01-03:

Donations: bitcoin:1Fe6B3Zo4HxaCD8ybi9A8zBRH2wKpciUxe

Calculate today's trendline value HERE

I would love to see an updated chart now. If he is not around anymore maybe someone else has the skills to do it? We need it updatedfor the next years!

[mmortal03]

People should donate to him. Hopefully he still controls the associated wallet.

[vit05]

People should donate to him. Hopefully he still controls the associated wallet.

Yep. I think it will be great if he confirms that still own that address. Because this prediction was great and he deserves some tips.

[mithrim]

Very impressive work, I'm quite sad that I didn't discover this thread earlier. And it doesn't matter that the formula suggests $4.011 for todays price as there is always spread. But it will be good guide for the coming months/years.

Well done!

[TwoCorn]

I recommend you guys check out this thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.0

It's similar and is updated fairly regularly. Please read the OP because it explains how the numbers are calculated. Enjoy!

[CornCube]

In this OP I will always post the last updated chart:

Update 2017-01-03:
https://s3.postimg.org/kmzui60kj/logarithmic_03_01_2017.jpg
Donations: bitcoin:1Fe6B3Zo4HxaCD8ybi9A8zBRH2wKpciUxe

Calculate today's trendline value HERE

I sketched a hand (inaccurately) drawn update of the green price line (did not update the regression):

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2550946.0

[crypt0heaven]

In this OP I will always post the last updated chart:

Update 2017-01-03:

Donations: bitcoin:1Fe6B3Zo4HxaCD8ybi9A8zBRH2wKpciUxe

Calculate today's trendline value HERE

I sketched a hand (inaccurately) drawn update of the green price line (did not update the regression):

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2550946.0

what a god damn prediction, to infinity and beyond

[mithrim]

In this OP I will always post the last updated chart:

Update 2017-01-03:

Donations: bitcoin:1Fe6B3Zo4HxaCD8ybi9A8zBRH2wKpciUxe

Calculate today's trendline value HERE

Are there any updates coming this year/next year? It's quite impressive and it would be sad to have it discontinued 

[jeunpeun99]

to the people saying it is quite impressive and such.
According to the graph, the price of one bitcoin would be around $ 4000 not $ 16000.

[slowlyslowly]

to the people saying it is quite impressive and such.
According to the graph, the price of one bitcoin would be around $ 4000 not $ 16000.

Why are you picking on the chart? It is simply a chart based on the past. It is very apolitical in that sense. Yes the expected price is far from the current price but we all know even by bitcoin standard there is massive pumping going on so we may soon be much closer to the expected value. And the spread info gives the reader some feeling of how far up or down the price might be from a middle path. Leave the chart in peace.

[jeunpeun99]

to the people saying it is quite impressive and such.
According to the graph, the price of one bitcoin would be around $ 4000 not $ 16000.

Why are you picking on the chart? It is simply a chart based on the past. It is very apolitical in that sense. Yes the expected price is far from the current price but we all know even by bitcoin standard there is massive pumping going on so we may soon be much closer to the expected value. And the spread info gives the reader some feeling of how far up or down the price might be from a middle path. Leave the chart in peace.

Im sorry, I didn't want to pick on the chart. I just wanted to let people now that the expected value would be lower than it is now.

[Lancusters]

It is impossible for the graphs to see the pattern in the behavior of bitcoin. In 2012 and 2014, we see great failures. I am sure that they were made possible by the speculators. They have seen great prospects of bitcoin and has made a decline in prices to buy up all the coins. Few who held their assets at the time. Is it possible to repeat this? Maybe, but right now the underlying asset is concentrated in their hands. Why would they reduce the price to assemble a small number of coins? They will continuously raise the price until sell all your stocks.

[Torque]

Chart is not as useful without a current update.

[Phil_S]

The thing is, when the actual graph is jumping all over the place, up and down, it's inevitable that it will intersect a smooth red line a few times. Every time it happens, you can call it amazing, but... you know...

[btcone111]

The thing is, when the actual graph is jumping all over the place, up and down, it's inevitable that it will intersect a smooth red line a few times. Every time it happens, you can call it amazing, but... you know...

Yeh this is problem of rate of reversion. If serious, someone has to estimate the reversion parameter to test that it has't' changed. if successful, then the model is more convincing.

[wwzsocki]

Is there an updated version of this chart?

I have tried to update this chart in but looks bad and I will not post here. I am not sure of my accuracy but looks like (on updated chart) that we are High (when the price touched 20000$ Bitcoin was 800% oversold) and now we see a correction back to trend line.

I don't want to scare anybody but if this goes back to trend line we will see price back at 7000$.

Good for me I will just wait and buy.

[mattbellme]

Does anyone know how to set this up in excel?  Would love to have my own version to play with...

[olumyd]

Is there an altcoin version. Will like to do a comparative analysis to see if FUD and FOMO have quantitative measures on the market assays.

[bitbunnny]

This chart could only represent some guidelines not something you should stick to and expect the trends will be exactly like this.
Also without update this isn't worth so new values should be filled all the time.
Don't be disappointed when this will not help you to actualy predict the values.

[mmortal03]

Is there an altcoin version. Will like to do a comparative analysis to see if FUD and FOMO have quantitative measures on the market assays.

"Total Marketcap All Coins Logarithmic Regression"

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2000218