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Author Topic: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value  (Read 116733 times)
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November 26, 2018, 04:52:50 AM
 #241


Interestingly, the forecast almost falls in line with what McAfee has said.




Has McAfee undergone that operation yet to remove his private parts that he made a bet on?  Roll Eyes

lol, there's still time (and a website dedicated to it): https://bircoin.top/
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December 16, 2018, 07:41:39 PM
Last edit: December 16, 2018, 07:54:25 PM by mmortal03
Merited by ssmc2 (1)
 #242

Looks like the moonmath site has been revamped and added Trolololo's projection: https://www.moonmath.win/

Here's a screengrab:


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January 06, 2019, 11:23:52 AM
 #243

The Moon Math log projection isn't that far off from Trolololo's: https://www.moonmath.win/
Thank you


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February 03, 2019, 02:22:22 AM
 #244

Over the three bubbles, you see how the peak shifts down in the color range? The following bottoms also has shifted down in color.
I, a noob, was caught out during the latest bubble, expecting it to reach the previous peak color!
Is it possible to make a chart where the peaks & bottoms have the same color?
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February 05, 2019, 01:22:04 AM
 #245

Over the three bubbles, you see how the peak shifts down in the color range? The following bottoms also has shifted down in color.
I, a noob, was caught out during the latest bubble, expecting it to reach the previous peak color!
Is it possible to make a chart where the peaks & bottoms have the same color?


totally noticed that, first thing i noticed. I fully expect the next boom to only go to the color right below where the last boom went to. So if it occurs in 2021 which it probably will, it should peak just over $100k. Also every boom has ended up going over the next multiple of ten (2 -> 30s (over $10), -> 200s (over $100, -> $1150 (over $1000), -> $19800 (over $10k) -> $100k? - $130k? (over $100k)), and I think that will continue on this next boom. An guess but an educated guess.

I think we should expect it to continue have booms go lower in the rainbow chart in the future, as bitcoin gets closer to becoming a global asset and therefore it gets closer to maturing. Then again if Wall St buys up millions of Bitcoin over the next two or three years maybe we'll actually see it spike higher instead of lower!

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February 06, 2019, 02:58:58 PM
Last edit: February 06, 2019, 03:10:02 PM by Syncrypto
 #246

Very interesting thought. I played around with the price data in order to fit the peaks and bottoms into the same colors. See image here:
https://i.imgur.com/Sl4vP07.png
The price spread covered by the colors gets smaller with time. At the very moment, the upper bound of the blow-off zone grows only 0.15% per day while the lower bound of the capitulation zone grows 0.17% per day.
Let's see if Bitcoin further manages to stay within these ranges in the coming years.
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July 20, 2019, 11:29:14 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), josegines (1)
 #247

Hello! I am writing to this forum for the first time. I was very interested in the work of Trolololo and I decided to get into it in detail. I carefully and thoroughly studied this whole forum https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831547.0 and made sure that its formulas in the past gave accurate results! Thank you very much Trolololo for your fundamental work.
       But I do not understand everything, so I am forced to turn to all of you and, above all, to the distinguished Trolololo for help and clarification ....
       Trolololo several times laid out similar, but slightly different formulas. All these formulas give different results and all these results change every day ... Today, 07/20/2019, the formulas give the following results:

10/22/2014 5-17-47
10 ^ (2.66167155005961 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 17.9183761889864) 11266
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E2.66167155005961++*+ln ((number+of+days+s+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+17.9183761889864)

 
12/30/2014
10 ^ (2.9065 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 19.493)
31480
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(2.9065++*+ln((nnumber+of+days+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+19.493)

 
3/9/2015
10 ^ (3.1737 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 21.424)
59234
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(3.1737++*+ln((nnew+of+days+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+21.424)

 
05.28.2015
10 ^ (3.11800081827247 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 21.0858000278001)
44773
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E (3.1800081827247++*+ln ((number+of+days+s++2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+++21.0858000278001)

 
04/14/2016
10 ^ (2.84737734739566 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 19.2400124152881)
18323
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E2.84737734739566++*+ln ((number+of+days+s+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+19.2400124152881)


01/10/2017
10 ^ (2.66167155005961 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 17.9183761889864)
11266
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E2.66167155005961++*+ln ((number+of+days+s+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+17.9183761889864)

  

          In this regard, I have the following questions:
1) I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the first and last formulas on October 22, 2014, 17–47 and 01/10/2017 are absolutely identical !!! Why? Why, then, were changes made to the formula for three years?
 2) Which of these formulas is relevant today?
3) If I understand correctly, these formulas show the predicted price of Bitcoin after some time in the future. After what about time Bitcoin should reach the price, which shows the formula at the moment.
4) What are the days of brackets (number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) does this formula substitute for getting the correct result?
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September 30, 2019, 10:48:32 AM
 #248

So... what's the current status of this rainbow? Grin

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September 30, 2019, 02:58:54 PM
 #249

So... what's the current status of this rainbow? Grin

lol, it's chillin' over here: https://www.moonmath.win/
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March 09, 2020, 07:17:30 PM
 #250

Still one of the best posts that was spot on.
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June 16, 2020, 07:24:15 PM
 #251

Looks like the charts on https://www.moonmath.win/ have disappeared?

Edit: Nope, you just have to click on them now.
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December 21, 2020, 03:10:15 PM
 #252

does anyone here know how to calculate Trololo's equation?
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December 22, 2020, 04:20:52 AM
 #253

does anyone here know how to calculate Trololo's equation?

It's on the moonmath site, on the right side above the chart once you click on "trolololo's 2014 Logarithmic Regression Projection": https://www.moonmath.win/
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December 25, 2020, 06:15:05 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #254

I was very inspired by this post back in the day and wanted to do something similar, so I've recalculated the logarithmic function and done similar analysis to what Trolololo did originally. I'm going to try and keep it updated somewhat frequently on https://hardestfork.com/ and maybe cross-post the images here if there's interest.

https://hardestfork.com/images/2020-12-20/btc.png
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July 29, 2021, 11:41:23 AM
 #255

Where is Trolololo  Roll Eyes Shocked

I have been busy in other things... Wink
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July 29, 2021, 12:05:43 PM
 #256

Hello! I am writing to this forum for the first time. I was very interested in the work of Trolololo and I decided to get into it in detail. I carefully and thoroughly studied this whole forum https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831547.0 and made sure that its formulas in the past gave accurate results! Thank you very much Trolololo for your fundamental work.
       But I do not understand everything, so I am forced to turn to all of you and, above all, to the distinguished Trolololo for help and clarification ....
       Trolololo several times laid out similar, but slightly different formulas. All these formulas give different results and all these results change every day ... Today, 07/20/2019, the formulas give the following results:

10/22/2014 5-17-47
10 ^ (2.66167155005961 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 17.9183761889864) 11266
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E2.66167155005961++*+ln ((number+of+days+s+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+17.9183761889864)

 
12/30/2014
10 ^ (2.9065 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 19.493)
31480
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(2.9065++*+ln((nnumber+of+days+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+19.493)

 
3/9/2015
10 ^ (3.1737 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 21.424)
59234
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(3.1737++*+ln((nnew+of+days+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+21.424)

 
05.28.2015
10 ^ (3.11800081827247 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 21.0858000278001)
44773
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E (3.1800081827247++*+ln ((number+of+days+s++2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+++21.0858000278001)

 
04/14/2016
10 ^ (2.84737734739566 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 19.2400124152881)
18323
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E2.84737734739566++*+ln ((number+of+days+s+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+19.2400124152881)


01/10/2017
10 ^ (2.66167155005961 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 17.9183761889864)
11266
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E2.66167155005961++*+ln ((number+of+days+s+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+17.9183761889864)

  

          In this regard, I have the following questions:
1) I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the first and last formulas on October 22, 2014, 17–47 and 01/10/2017 are absolutely identical !!! Why? Why, then, were changes made to the formula for three years?
 2) Which of these formulas is relevant today?
3) If I understand correctly, these formulas show the predicted price of Bitcoin after some time in the future. After what about time Bitcoin should reach the price, which shows the formula at the moment.
4) What are the days of brackets (number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) does this formula substitute for getting the correct result?

1) That was a typo. I updated all data in the chart, except I forgot to update the formula parameters in the chart... Updating the chart was a hard manual process, and so subject to minor errors.
2) The chart should be updated regularly...
3) I made those charts to have an idea of whether the BTC price was overvalued or undervalued at the moment of every update. The chart could also be useful for estimating under-over valuation for one or two years in the future. And also gave and idea of the enormous revalorization of BTC that was left by them. But I never did that as a prediction, because no one can predict the market behavior. The price hitting 10k with just days of difference... is just luck. No cristal ball here... Seriously.
4) The wolframalpha gave an approximation of the value at a given date, given that updating the chart was a hard process.
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July 29, 2021, 05:25:33 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #257



1) That was a typo. I updated all data in the chart, except I forgot to update the formula parameters in the chart... Updating the chart was a hard manual process, and so subject to minor errors.
2) The chart should be updated regularly...
3) I made those charts to have an idea of whether the BTC price was overvalued or undervalued at the moment of every update. The chart could also be useful for estimating under-over valuation for one or two years in the future. And also gave and idea of the enormous revalorization of BTC that was left by them. But I never did that as a prediction, because no one can predict the market behavior. The price hitting 10k with just days of difference... is just luck. No cristal ball here... Seriously.
4) The wolframalpha gave an approximation of the value at a given date, given that updating the chart was a hard process.


Glad to see the legendary Trolololo!!

Have you ever added overbought and oversold bands to better visualize those levels? Is there a model that includes bands that you like more?

It would be interesting to see where the overbought band is right now or 6 months ahead.

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July 29, 2021, 06:18:11 PM
Merited by josegines (1)
 #258



1) That was a typo. I updated all data in the chart, except I forgot to update the formula parameters in the chart... Updating the chart was a hard manual process, and so subject to minor errors.
2) The chart should be updated regularly...
3) I made those charts to have an idea of whether the BTC price was overvalued or undervalued at the moment of every update. The chart could also be useful for estimating under-over valuation for one or two years in the future. And also gave and idea of the enormous revalorization of BTC that was left by them. But I never did that as a prediction, because no one can predict the market behavior. The price hitting 10k with just days of difference... is just luck. No cristal ball here... Seriously.
4) The wolframalpha gave an approximation of the value at a given date, given that updating the chart was a hard process.


Glad to see the legendary Trolololo!!

Have you ever added overbought and oversold bands to better visualize those levels? Is there a model that includes bands that you like more?

It would be interesting to see where the overbought band is right now or 6 months ahead.

The rainbow chart is a very nice way to visualize oversold and overbought levels.
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July 30, 2021, 12:28:48 AM
 #259

Rainbow chart looking great as always. As expected, Bitcoin will continue to move lower and lower in the rainbow as time passes, because there is only so much money in the world that will go into a single asset, so slowdown will occur, and as proof you can just look at the 2011, 2013, and 2017 peaks to see the lower progression. I think the light orange band (5th from top) is probably as high as Bitcoin will make it from this point on.

Bitcoin should recover into the green during the second half of this year, probably roughly follow that up for a bit next year and start poking into the yellow. Maybe 2025 post-halving we'll get a pump into the orange briefly. $400k range in 2025.

Love the rainbow. This was the first chart when I got back into bitcoin in 2017 that made me realize the growth potential for the future.

I write about bitcoin, crypto, money, and early retirement. Become a Medium member to read all my content:
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July 30, 2021, 01:18:47 AM
 #260

Rainbow chart looking great as always. As expected, Bitcoin will continue to move lower and lower in the rainbow as time passes, because there is only so much money in the world that will go into a single asset, so slowdown will occur, and as proof you can just look at the 2011, 2013, and 2017 peaks to see the lower progression. I think the light orange band (5th from top) is probably as high as Bitcoin will make it from this point on.

Bitcoin should recover into the green during the second half of this year, probably roughly follow that up for a bit next year and start poking into the yellow. Maybe 2025 post-halving we'll get a pump into the orange briefly. $400k range in 2025.

Love the rainbow. This was the first chart when I got back into bitcoin in 2017 that made me realize the growth potential for the future.

Do you (or anyone else) have a link to which ever rainbow chart (or the infamous one) you are referring to, and perhaps I (and others / and the students of the class) might be able to follow along with the visuals a wee bit moar better.

Of course, we have to deal with ESG, KYC & AML, but each of them are attack vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

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