Bitcoin Forum
September 17, 2019, 01:43:27 PM *
News: If you like a topic and you see an orange "bump" link, click it. More info.
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 [12] 13 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value  (Read 112416 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic.
choochie
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2
Merit: 0


View Profile
February 14, 2018, 05:26:28 PM
 #221

It does to me as well, except when you ignore the price and look at the behavior around the logarithm fit. 

When I first heard about it, it was $12.  (friend buying on silk road)

Then I registered to buy on MtGox one day before it got hacked (funds had not been deposited yet) at $150

I started buying when it passed the price of gold ~ 1200 -- when I realized that was 100x what I first heard about it at, I knew normal price thinking doesn't apply....

Oh, and the Tulip mania lasted about a year
1568727807
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1568727807

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1568727807
Reply with quote  #2

1568727807
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1568727807
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1568727807

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1568727807
Reply with quote  #2

1568727807
Report to moderator
Fern
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 247
Merit: 250



View Profile
February 22, 2018, 12:57:11 AM
 #222

Video with latest chart. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvQzjyhtjRg
thecodebear
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 756
Merit: 158


View Profile
March 04, 2018, 03:04:15 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), butch3r (1)
 #223


This is also grossly how I see it.   Except that the arcs become wider and wider (longer and longer periods of down between the bubbles).  And look, we're heading for the next few years towards something like $3000, and the next bubble is maybe 5 or 6 years away.  The first one of size was in the summer of 2011.  The second one was at the end of 2013 (so 2-3 years).  The third one was at the end of 2017 (so 4 years).  This is why I think we're in for a bear period of a few years, down to a few $1000.  In 2014/2015, we went down a factor of 6.  In 2012, we went down a factor of about 10.  And then of course, there may be a last bubble.  Hard to say.  Once everyone has been burned once, where is the new army of greater fools ?


Definitely don't think it's gonna get longer and longer bear markets. That analysis only makes sense because of the Mt. Gox crash. You take out the hack of Mt. Gox and it all falls apart. That was a singular event in Bitcoin's history, not the trend of what has happened. Very unlikely Bitcoin isn't above $20k this year, I'd expect it to happen this summer. We're already about double from the bottom of the crash. When it doubles again it'll be at ATH. Sure it'll take a bunch of choppy months to get there but no way it takes years, unlikely to even take one year. Look at the crashed that didn't involve Mt. Gox to get an idea of Bitcoin's pattern instead of just focusing on that single event, it was an outlier. If Coinbase is ransacked and goes out of business then yea sure what you say might happen, but that again relies on one singularly important catastrophic event happening, not the overall trend of Bitcoin.

If anything I think bull markets will become longer and more gradual. The last boom phase was basically May - December, that's 7-8 months, and only in the last month and a half of that did it enter mania phase. I think we'll see longer "boom phases" in which the price is increasing steadily to ATH followed by quick mania phases like we just had the precede crashes. The thing is the only thing we lose from the crash was the mania phase, all the gains from the relatively gradual buildup from May through October remained even at the bottom of the market a month ago. That's real adoption that occurred, only the mania phase got erased temporarily. Real adoption will continue to occur and as adoption spreads these phases will last longer and the network becomes more diverse therefore stronger against crashes making long crashes even less likely.

This down period from the ATH might last 6+ months, but the next phase of real adoption might last until Spring or Summer of 2019, and it might just double the price over that time followed by a mania phase that maybe pushes the price into the high 5-digits that then gets wiped out in late 2019 and sends the price back to $30k or so. And on and on this cycle continues.

Anyway it's all a guessing game, but when you take out Mt. Gox the trend is that down markets last 6-12 months generally, and Bitcoin already being up about 100% from the bottom of the market and we're only 2 and a half months removed from the start of the crash I think very much supports the idea that it will push to new ATHs by this summer.
butch3r
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 242
Merit: 107



View Profile
March 05, 2018, 07:28:00 AM
 #224

Great post, code bear.

I agree that I don't see a long bearish trend coming in the next months.
Trolololo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 259
Merit: 267



View Profile
March 05, 2018, 08:07:45 PM
 #225

Amazing @anonymint's analysis:
https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019

discussed here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3057203
mmortal03
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1750
Merit: 1005


View Profile
March 05, 2018, 10:59:47 PM
 #226


I wouldn't give his predictions much credence. It looks like his predictions on SegWit were wrong, and he believes that BCH is the real Bitcoin.
alexf2017
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 40
Merit: 0


View Profile
March 09, 2018, 12:57:43 PM
Last edit: March 09, 2018, 01:23:22 PM by alexf2017
 #227

1) Chart updated:

https://postimg.org/image/dmr2xq5np/

https://s18.postimg.org/66rtbxhyf/btcusd-09mar2018-3.jpg

==

Additional Information:

2) BTC/USD chart

https://postimg.org/image/9vcwy4kqd/

https://s18.postimg.org/eu0fcnojd/btcusd-wisdom09mar2018.jpg

---

3) S&P 500 chart

https://postimg.org/image/a84b4d0g5/

https://s18.postimg.org/eu0fcplzd/sp500usd-09mar2018.jpg

---

4) Fear Index

http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

https://postimg.org/image/dqgb0ogqt/

https://s18.postimg.org/fi99vl03t/MAj_Qw8_H4boq_M2e_1.jpg

---

5) Buffet sits in cash! ))

http://www.newsweek.com/warren-buffet-says-berkshire-hathaway-has-unique-problem-too-much-cash-819062

https://postimg.org/image/ddowueyg5/

https://s18.postimg.org/6zztr5tk9/z_ANJLqf_BMy_Wq_A9_1.jpg

===

All can I see - Big Short is coming  Cool Roll Eyes
Arvydas77
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1022
Merit: 504


https://www.liquid.com/?affiliate=steAarhm82233


View Profile WWW
April 02, 2018, 12:26:10 PM
 #228


The true is that s*it knows what is going to happen. All that charts won't help you so much. It can be invalidated very quickly and you will have a bunch of new charts. You can view and say about the market movements only retrospectively.

Create account on Liquid and get verified. Place a first trade with a minimum value equivalent to USD100. Get QASH!
Please register here: https://www.liquid.com/?affiliate=steAarhm82233
oscar2000
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764
Merit: 1043


עם ישראל


View Profile
April 02, 2018, 07:31:21 PM
 #229


Additional Information:

2) BTC/USD chart

https://postimg.org/image/9vcwy4kqd/



---


linear scale = bullshit

הִנֵּה לֹא יָנוּם וְלֹא יִישָׁן שׁוֹמֵר יִשְׂרָאֵל   jamais il ne dort ni ne sommeille, le gardien d'israël
alexf2017
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 40
Merit: 0


View Profile
April 04, 2018, 10:34:25 AM
 #230

linear scale = bullshit

The upper line of resistance looks the same in any scale mode: linear or logarithmic. So I can only give you one advice: increase your level.
alexf2017
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 40
Merit: 0


View Profile
April 04, 2018, 10:40:24 AM
Last edit: April 04, 2018, 01:08:31 PM by alexf2017
 #231

Fresh Fear & Greed Index http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

What do you think, where will the markets go?  Shocked Cheesy

https://s18.postimg.org/ozh8bb7jd/09465a5b6a.jpg

https://s18.postimg.org/ozh8bb7jd/09465a5b6a.jpg
Mvnzv
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 131
Merit: 12


View Profile
June 01, 2018, 09:06:14 AM
 #232

Server of images not working, reupload please!
SeksiStarlord
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 389
Merit: 107


View Profile
June 17, 2018, 08:20:27 PM
 #233


Cool to see you back, is there an updated chart of your first one from this thread?
martyrs
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1
Merit: 0


View Profile
June 28, 2018, 10:57:30 AM
 #234

How come the daily calculation link is completely different from the projected log regression trendline in the images?

For example, if you run the calculation today, it says $5879.

The trendline however had price at $10k back in November 2017.

What am I missing?
Jeffrey1018
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 5
Merit: 0


View Profile
August 01, 2018, 10:47:29 PM
 #235

where to find the latest updates on this?  I saw one on reddit or somewhere and i was trying to find.  On this thread the only chart that i see still working is one from 2014.
fedecaccia
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2
Merit: 0


View Profile
August 04, 2018, 07:34:02 PM
 #236

Hi, based on CryptoLab work, I was working on an extension of Metcalfe's law analysis to evaluate blockchain projects, such as ethereum, ripple, stellar and others. I leave the link: https://medium.com/@federicoagustincaccia/analyzing-blockchain-networks-with-metcalfes-and-odlyzko-s-laws-735d7488a18f regards!
Saint-loup
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 910
Merit: 692


View Profile
September 22, 2018, 11:31:58 AM
 #237

Could u update Trolololo?  Cool
+1
Could you update please
FrozenCopper2
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 8
Merit: 0


View Profile
October 11, 2018, 11:40:21 AM
 #238

Could u update Trolololo?  Cool

 Grin
mmortal03
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1750
Merit: 1005


View Profile
November 19, 2018, 11:59:15 PM
 #239

The Moon Math log projection isn't that far off from Trolololo's: https://www.moonmath.win/
Spalenberg
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 4
Merit: 0


View Profile
November 25, 2018, 02:09:36 PM
 #240


Interestingly, the forecast almost falls in line with what McAfee has said.


https://ibb.co/i7BWo7

Has McAfee undergone that operation yet to remove his private parts that he made a bet on?  Roll Eyes
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 [12] 13 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!