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Author Topic: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value  (Read 117325 times)
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mmortal03
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January 05, 2018, 01:27:27 PM
 #201

Is there an altcoin version. Will like to do a comparative analysis to see if FUD and FOMO have quantitative measures on the market assays.

"Total Marketcap All Coins Logarithmic Regression"

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2000218
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harvw
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January 08, 2018, 07:36:48 PM
 #202

Any update on this?

The beginning of a new era.
mmortal03
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January 17, 2018, 03:30:40 PM
 #203

Someone else made this one:

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7qrs3y/bitcoin_headed_to_100000_in_2018_says_analyst_who/dssdrum/
mmortal03
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January 17, 2018, 11:43:23 PM
 #204

TenshiS' chart, updated:
Biodom
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January 18, 2018, 01:30:19 AM
 #205

a large deviation from the original graph.
maybe it is still a true exponent a la BETI.
alexf2017
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January 20, 2018, 04:56:27 PM
Last edit: January 20, 2018, 05:16:10 PM by alexf2017
 #206

Some fantasies about the future Grin :

https://s9.postimg.org/rl7bkqa3z/kr_DJEnf_Ej_ZLk2p_1.jpg

https://s9.postimg.org/rl7bkqa3z/kr_DJEnf_Ej_ZLk2p_1.jpg
mithrim
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January 22, 2018, 12:25:11 AM
 #207


I like your train of thought  Cool
Although, we need to keep in mind that while this might be nice to look at, if there comes the time when BTC swings from 100k to 20k, oh boy, that this will result in carnage on the streets  Cheesy
Bloomie
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January 22, 2018, 05:04:33 AM
 #208


You actually think we'll still be at 10k in 2021? Doubtful.
dinofelis
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January 22, 2018, 05:05:48 AM
 #209


This is also grossly how I see it.   Except that the arcs become wider and wider (longer and longer periods of down between the bubbles).  And look, we're heading for the next few years towards something like $3000, and the next bubble is maybe 5 or 6 years away.  The first one of size was in the summer of 2011.  The second one was at the end of 2013 (so 2-3 years).  The third one was at the end of 2017 (so 4 years).  This is why I think we're in for a bear period of a few years, down to a few $1000.  In 2014/2015, we went down a factor of 6.  In 2012, we went down a factor of about 10.  And then of course, there may be a last bubble.  Hard to say.  Once everyone has been burned once, where is the new army of greater fools ?
alexf2017
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January 22, 2018, 06:38:31 AM
 #210

You actually think we'll still be at 10k in 2021? Doubtful.

It'll be good times for shopping  Wink will see...
alexf2017
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January 22, 2018, 06:40:01 AM
 #211

where is the new army of greater fools ?

They are still studying in the school  Roll Eyes Grin
mithrim
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January 24, 2018, 08:39:22 AM
 #212

where is the new army of greater fools ?

They are still studying in the school  Roll Eyes Grin

My thought exactly!  Cool
The market cap has much room to grow and once the recent dip has been accepted, there also could be a new wave because the cycles should be way shorter, now that media attention is a factor.
Claymore_Fan
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February 04, 2018, 03:15:38 PM
 #213

It's 2018, not 2017  Grin
Jaron80
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February 04, 2018, 03:28:33 PM
 #214

Lol if this would be real anyone owning 1 bitcoin is a millionaire in 10 years time
bitfish
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February 05, 2018, 06:12:02 PM
 #215

Lol if this would be real anyone owning 1 bitcoin is a millionaire in 10 years time


Funny thing is that these predictions are working until they don't.
When environment is changing so will behavior of BTC. Old predictions then will be invalid.


alexf2017
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February 06, 2018, 10:30:45 PM
 #216

It's 2018, not 2017  Grin

Fixed, updated  Grin

https://s18.postimg.org/pttnx18nr/btcusd.jpg

https://s18.postimg.org/pttnx18nr/btcusd.jpg
alexf2017
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February 06, 2018, 10:32:06 PM
 #217

Funny thing is that these predictions are working until they don't.
When environment is changing so will behavior of BTC. Old predictions then will be invalid.

It's just a fantasies  Cool
choochie
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February 14, 2018, 04:11:21 PM
 #218

I have updated the work previously performed by Trolololo back a few years ago.

Interestingly, the forecast almost falls in line with what McAfee has said.


https://ibb.co/i7BWo7
Nosk
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February 14, 2018, 04:14:31 PM
 #219

I don't know, 100k usd by the end of 2018 seems a lot to me. I will surely take profits if the time comes though.
choochie
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February 14, 2018, 05:26:28 PM
 #220

It does to me as well, except when you ignore the price and look at the behavior around the logarithm fit. 

When I first heard about it, it was $12.  (friend buying on silk road)

Then I registered to buy on MtGox one day before it got hacked (funds had not been deposited yet) at $150

I started buying when it passed the price of gold ~ 1200 -- when I realized that was 100x what I first heard about it at, I knew normal price thinking doesn't apply....

Oh, and the Tulip mania lasted about a year
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