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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1652055 times)
mccorvic
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March 21, 2013, 04:26:10 AM
 #14621

Remember a few hours ago when we dipped to $63 all the bears were like Muw-ahahha and all the calves were like oh nooooo.

Those were good times.

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March 21, 2013, 04:44:26 AM
 #14622

Remember a few hours ago when we dipped to $63 all the bears were like Muw-ahahha and all the calves were like oh nooooo.

Those were good times.
L-o-l

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March 21, 2013, 04:47:38 AM
 #14623

I owed $15 to this girl I am hooking up with, and she was excited to get 0.3 bitcoins instead! She said she was gonna use it to pay for her kids to go to college (mostly jokingly lol)

This must mean we are in a bubble  Cheesy

ok, that's almost as bad as that investor who, in 1929, was getting his shoes shined and the fricken SHOE SHINE BOY was talking about stocks and such. guy went and pulled his investments immediately. crashed happened the next day or something. i forget who this was. one of the big names.
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March 21, 2013, 04:54:27 AM
 #14624

I owed $15 to this girl I am hooking up with, and she was excited to get 0.3 bitcoins instead! She said she was gonna use it to pay for her kids to go to college (mostly jokingly lol)

This must mean we are in a bubble  Cheesy

ok, that's almost as bad as that investor who, in 1929, was getting his shoes shined and the fricken SHOE SHINE BOY was talking about stocks and such. guy went and pulled his investments immediately. crashed happened the next day or something. i forget who this was. one of the big names.

I don't think the analogy works with bitcoin.  Our goal has been to push adoption in order to push main stream acceptance and usage.  I find it strange that all of a sudden we are trying to act shocked, SHOCKED, that people we talk to about bitcoin continuously start to show interest in bitcoins.

People talking about bitcoin is not a sign of a bubble. People being interested in bitcoin is not a sign of a bubble.  It's a sign that bitcoin is doing what it is supposed to be doing.

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March 21, 2013, 04:57:15 AM
 #14625

Buy 49765.06 BTC for 16,401,907,642,068.86 USD

that's right bitches Cool

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March 21, 2013, 04:59:19 AM
 #14626

I owed $15 to this girl I am hooking up with, and she was excited to get 0.3 bitcoins instead! She said she was gonna use it to pay for her kids to go to college (mostly jokingly lol)

This must mean we are in a bubble  Cheesy

ok, that's almost as bad as that investor who, in 1929, was getting his shoes shined and the fricken SHOE SHINE BOY was talking about stocks and such. guy went and pulled his investments immediately. crashed happened the next day or something. i forget who this was. one of the big names.

Jesse Livermore?
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March 21, 2013, 05:05:02 AM
 #14627

I owed $15 to this girl I am hooking up with, and she was excited to get 0.3 bitcoins instead! She said she was gonna use it to pay for her kids to go to college (mostly jokingly lol)

This must mean we are in a bubble  Cheesy

ok, that's almost as bad as that investor who, in 1929, was getting his shoes shined and the fricken SHOE SHINE BOY was talking about stocks and such. guy went and pulled his investments immediately. crashed happened the next day or something. i forget who this was. one of the big names.

I don't think the analogy works with bitcoin.  Our goal has been to push adoption in order to push main stream acceptance and usage.  I find it strange that all of a sudden we are trying to act shocked, SHOCKED, that people we talk to about bitcoin continuously start to show interest in bitcoins.

People talking about bitcoin is not a sign of a bubble. People being interested in bitcoin is not a sign of a bubble.  It's a sign that bitcoin is doing what it is supposed to be doing.

fair point. that assumes it's adoption driving the price rise though. if it is, your right. great. if it's not, and just speculators or something? could still go bad.

personally i am hoping for the moon shot.
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March 21, 2013, 05:09:32 AM
 #14628

I owed $15 to this girl I am hooking up with, and she was excited to get 0.3 bitcoins instead! She said she was gonna use it to pay for her kids to go to college (mostly jokingly lol)

This must mean we are in a bubble  Cheesy

ok, that's almost as bad as that investor who, in 1929, was getting his shoes shined and the fricken SHOE SHINE BOY was talking about stocks and such. guy went and pulled his investments immediately. crashed happened the next day or something. i forget who this was. one of the big names.

I don't think the analogy works with bitcoin.  Our goal has been to push adoption in order to push main stream acceptance and usage.  I find it strange that all of a sudden we are trying to act shocked, SHOCKED, that people we talk to about bitcoin continuously start to show interest in bitcoins.

People talking about bitcoin is not a sign of a bubble. People being interested in bitcoin is not a sign of a bubble.  It's a sign that bitcoin is doing what it is supposed to be doing.

My problem with that theory is that much of the recent gains are due to a recent rash of good news.  What happens when there is bad news? Granted, the good news is real news, but it's been decidedly pro-Bitcoin for weeks.  We are due some bad news, like a major exchange hack.  We are, IMHO, beyond a price point that is justifiable with the current size of the actual bitcoin economic activity alone.  Hype leads to speculative bubbles.  We all know this.  What we don't know is how long we can ride it before sentiment turns sour.  What happens to the European banking panic when the asinine deposit tax proposal in Cyprus goes down in flames?  Or there is a compromise that doesn't spell the worst?  The sudden influx of Euro denominated wealth cannot be maintained.  Once the pool of risk adverse Europeans (an irony, I know) has all moved the greater part of their deposits into Bitcoin (or gold/silver/whatever) who is going to be left to support the bid wall?  Can that bid wall be supported by Argentines and Iranians evading capital controls?  I doubt it.  That's what Bitcoin is good for, but it doesn't really matter so much what the exchange price actually is if Bitcoin is only being used as a workaround for a bottleneck in the fiat currency system.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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March 21, 2013, 05:17:28 AM
 #14629

I owed $15 to this girl I am hooking up with, and she was excited to get 0.3 bitcoins instead! She said she was gonna use it to pay for her kids to go to college (mostly jokingly lol)

This must mean we are in a bubble  Cheesy

ok, that's almost as bad as that investor who, in 1929, was getting his shoes shined and the fricken SHOE SHINE BOY was talking about stocks and such. guy went and pulled his investments immediately. crashed happened the next day or something. i forget who this was. one of the big names.

I don't think the analogy works with bitcoin.  Our goal has been to push adoption in order to push main stream acceptance and usage.  I find it strange that all of a sudden we are trying to act shocked, SHOCKED, that people we talk to about bitcoin continuously start to show interest in bitcoins.

People talking about bitcoin is not a sign of a bubble. People being interested in bitcoin is not a sign of a bubble.  It's a sign that bitcoin is doing what it is supposed to be doing.

My problem with that theory is that much of the recent gains are due to a recent rash of good news.  What happens when there is bad news? Granted, the good news is real news, but it's been decidedly pro-Bitcoin for weeks.  We are due some bad news, like a major exchange hack.  We are, IMHO, beyond a price point that is justifiable with the current size of the actual bitcoin economic activity alone.  Hype leads to speculative bubbles.  We all know this.  What we don't know is how long we can ride it before sentiment turns sour.  What happens to the European banking panic when the asinine deposit tax proposal in Cyprus goes down in flames?  Or there is a compromise that doesn't spell the worst?  The sudden influx of Euro denominated wealth cannot be maintained.  Once the pool of risk adverse Europeans (an irony, I know) has all moved the greater part of their deposits into Bitcoin (or gold/silver/whatever) who is going to be left to support the bid wall?  Can that bid wall be supported by Argentines and Iranians evading capital controls?  I doubt it.  That's what Bitcoin is good for, but it doesn't really matter so much what the exchange price actually is if Bitcoin is only being used as a workaround for a bottleneck in the fiat currency system.

How bout the fork?  That wasn't good.
I don't think europeans are driving the rally atm, euro bitcoin price was somewhat lower than usd bitcoin price.
mccorvic
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March 21, 2013, 05:26:35 AM
 #14630

I owed $15 to this girl I am hooking up with, and she was excited to get 0.3 bitcoins instead! She said she was gonna use it to pay for her kids to go to college (mostly jokingly lol)

This must mean we are in a bubble  Cheesy

ok, that's almost as bad as that investor who, in 1929, was getting his shoes shined and the fricken SHOE SHINE BOY was talking about stocks and such. guy went and pulled his investments immediately. crashed happened the next day or something. i forget who this was. one of the big names.

I don't think the analogy works with bitcoin.  Our goal has been to push adoption in order to push main stream acceptance and usage.  I find it strange that all of a sudden we are trying to act shocked, SHOCKED, that people we talk to about bitcoin continuously start to show interest in bitcoins.

People talking about bitcoin is not a sign of a bubble. People being interested in bitcoin is not a sign of a bubble.  It's a sign that bitcoin is doing what it is supposed to be doing.

My problem with that theory is that much of the recent gains are due to a recent rash of good news.  What happens when there is bad news? Granted, the good news is real news, but it's been decidedly pro-Bitcoin for weeks.  We are due some bad news, like a major exchange hack.  We are, IMHO, beyond a price point that is justifiable with the current size of the actual bitcoin economic activity alone.  Hype leads to speculative bubbles.  We all know this.  What we don't know is how long we can ride it before sentiment turns sour.  What happens to the European banking panic when the asinine deposit tax proposal in Cyprus goes down in flames?  Or there is a compromise that doesn't spell the worst?  The sudden influx of Euro denominated wealth cannot be maintained.  Once the pool of risk adverse Europeans (an irony, I know) has all moved the greater part of their deposits into Bitcoin (or gold/silver/whatever) who is going to be left to support the bid wall?  Can that bid wall be supported by Argentines and Iranians evading capital controls?  I doubt it.  That's what Bitcoin is good for, but it doesn't really matter so much what the exchange price actually is if Bitcoin is only being used as a workaround for a bottleneck in the fiat currency system.

I really can't imagine worse news happening than the fork, and we made it through just fine.  I think that event was actually a fairly unsung hero in the recent rises past $50. It really boosted confidence in the system.

The rest of your post comes down to a pretty philosophical difference that we, ultimately, won't be able to answer Smiley  If the market was 100% speculation, then yea, we'd be in trouble no doubt.  BUT the first step of getting people to use bitcoin is getting them to have a bitcoin.  If 1,000 speculators buy 1,000 btc each to "make a profit" with there is a chance that a good number of them will actually come across a scenario where using BTC instead of other means is actually beneficial.  This will push adoption rates up. Victory.

So even if your grandma buys a bitcoin with the initial purpose of flipping it, I would hope you'd explain to her all the other benefits of holding the coin at the same time.  Maybe she'll come around.

If we get enough Argentines and Iranians to use BTC to get around capital controls or the fiat bottleneck, a lot of them will eventually see the benefit and just use BTC directly.  

I am also of the opinion that our current price is way, way, way to low and is held low by speculators.  Bitcoin is a powerful financial tool in a wide variety of ways and people will continue to realize it in ever growing numbers.

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March 21, 2013, 05:33:42 AM
 #14631


My problem with that theory is that much of the recent gains are due to a recent rash of good news.  What happens when there is bad news? Granted, the good news is real news, but it's been decidedly pro-Bitcoin for weeks.  We are due some bad news, like a major exchange hack.  We are, IMHO, beyond a price point that is justifiable with the current size of the actual bitcoin economic activity alone.  Hype leads to speculative bubbles.  We all know this.  What we don't know is how long we can ride it before sentiment turns sour.  What happens to the European banking panic when the asinine deposit tax proposal in Cyprus goes down in flames?  Or there is a compromise that doesn't spell the worst?  The sudden influx of Euro denominated wealth cannot be maintained.  Once the pool of risk adverse Europeans (an irony, I know) has all moved the greater part of their deposits into Bitcoin (or gold/silver/whatever) who is going to be left to support the bid wall?  Can that bid wall be supported by Argentines and Iranians evading capital controls?  I doubt it.  That's what Bitcoin is good for, but it doesn't really matter so much what the exchange price actually is if Bitcoin is only being used as a workaround for a bottleneck in the fiat currency system.

imho the people with enough cash to move around due to international monetary news probably have a reason or two to have an asset like bitcoin.  so i agree with you on all that, but i also think the exposure bitcoin is getting in this cyprus debacle is enough to turn on some people, with significant assets, who see a use for it beyond the ones you mention.

i don't think the existing monetary system will ever come crashing down, but that people with significant wealth will always want options for maneuvering within it.
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March 21, 2013, 05:34:55 AM
 #14632

I owed $15 to this girl I am hooking up with, and she was excited to get 0.3 bitcoins instead! She said she was gonna use it to pay for her kids to go to college (mostly jokingly lol)

This must mean we are in a bubble  Cheesy

ok, that's almost as bad as that investor who, in 1929, was getting his shoes shined and the fricken SHOE SHINE BOY was talking about stocks and such. guy went and pulled his investments immediately. crashed happened the next day or something. i forget who this was. one of the big names.

I don't think the analogy works with bitcoin.  Our goal has been to push adoption in order to push main stream acceptance and usage.  I find it strange that all of a sudden we are trying to act shocked, SHOCKED, that people we talk to about bitcoin continuously start to show interest in bitcoins.

People talking about bitcoin is not a sign of a bubble. People being interested in bitcoin is not a sign of a bubble.  It's a sign that bitcoin is doing what it is supposed to be doing.

My problem with that theory is that much of the recent gains are due to a recent rash of good news.  What happens when there is bad news? Granted, the good news is real news, but it's been decidedly pro-Bitcoin for weeks.  We are due some bad news, like a major exchange hack.  We are, IMHO, beyond a price point that is justifiable with the current size of the actual bitcoin economic activity alone.  Hype leads to speculative bubbles.  We all know this.  What we don't know is how long we can ride it before sentiment turns sour.  What happens to the European banking panic when the asinine deposit tax proposal in Cyprus goes down in flames?  Or there is a compromise that doesn't spell the worst?  The sudden influx of Euro denominated wealth cannot be maintained.  Once the pool of risk adverse Europeans (an irony, I know) has all moved the greater part of their deposits into Bitcoin (or gold/silver/whatever) who is going to be left to support the bid wall?  Can that bid wall be supported by Argentines and Iranians evading capital controls?  I doubt it.  That's what Bitcoin is good for, but it doesn't really matter so much what the exchange price actually is if Bitcoin is only being used as a workaround for a bottleneck in the fiat currency system.

I really can't imagine worse news happening than the fork, and we made it through just fine.  I think that event was actually a fairly unsung hero in the recent rises past $50. It really boosted confidence in the system.

The rest of your post comes down to a pretty philosophical difference that we, ultimately, won't be able to answer Smiley  If the market was 100% speculation, then yea, we'd be in trouble no doubt.  BUT the first step of getting people to use bitcoin is getting them to have a bitcoin.  If 1,000 speculators buy 1,000 btc each to "make a profit" with there is a chance that a good number of them will actually come across a scenario where using BTC instead of other means is actually beneficial.  This will push adoption rates up. Victory.

So even if your grandma buys a bitcoin with the initial purpose of flipping it, I would hope you'd explain to her all the other benefits of holding the coin at the same time.  Maybe she'll come around.

If we get enough Argentines and Iranians to use BTC to get around capital controls or the fiat bottleneck, a lot of them will eventually see the benefit and just use BTC directly.  

I am also of the opinion that our current price is way, way, way to low and is held low by speculators.  Bitcoin is a powerful financial tool in a wide variety of ways and people will continue to realize it in ever growing numbers.

^ This. One week ago we had awful news -- how can people have such short memories? There's hardly been a "rash of good news". This is just the beginning of big players getting on board. The FinCEN regulations will accelerate that as virtual currencies move from the fringe. We're not in a bubble; we're at the foot of a mountain looking up.

Certainly, we will go down a little in order to go up again, but prepare for the long climb ahead -- don't waste your energy in the foothills.

The Cyprus haircut looks like it won't happen after all, but it has a magnifying effect of people looking for safe havens for their assets... across the whole of Europe. However I think the result from this is more speculative than real right now.

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March 21, 2013, 05:48:36 AM
 #14633

I am also of the opinion that our current price is way, way, way to low and is held low by speculators.  

How do you figure?  I believe shorting is very limited, so anybody who wants to speculate besides that needs to buy bitcoin, thus increasing the amount of fiat pumped into the system.  And they are only successful if they sell at a higher price (thus leaving the price higher).
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March 21, 2013, 05:52:04 AM
 #14634

damn you crazy BTC. I give up trying to sell high buy low, all I end up doing is sell high, buy higher.

Thing is: while this is not so good when price goes constantly up, it does buy you some safety and potential for good profit in case of a dip (or even panic).

I will continue to do this (sell high, buy in again higher). It sux to sell and see the price go higher and I used to get really pissed and almost decided to go all long but nowadays I tell myself: at least you've been quite safe and you supported bitcoin (as sort-of a "buyer of last resort").

Also: if everyone stops having some fiat on gox ready for a drop, that will greatly amplify the drop (who's going to buy up the cheap coins?)

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
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March 21, 2013, 05:58:37 AM
 #14635

damn you crazy BTC. I give up trying to sell high buy low, all I end up doing is sell high, buy higher.

Thing is: while this is not so good when price goes constantly up, it does buy you some safety and potential for good profit in case of a dip (or even panic).

I will continue to do this (sell high, buy in again higher). It sux to sell and see the price go higher and I used to get really pissed and almost decided to go all long but nowadays I tell myself: at least you've been quite safe and you supported bitcoin (as sort-of a "buyer of last resort").

Also: if everyone stops having some fiat on gox ready for a drop, that will greatly amplify the drop (who's going to buy up the cheap coins?)


Me too, I have been burned once and successful once, as long as I don't get burned too often I'll keep trying Smiley.
My motivation is more based on greed (through self-delusion of trading skills) than "for the good of bitcoin", but the end result is the same.
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March 21, 2013, 06:07:01 AM
 #14636

I owed $15 to this girl I am hooking up with, and she was excited to get 0.3 bitcoins instead! She said she was gonna use it to pay for her kids to go to college (mostly jokingly lol)

This must mean we are in a bubble  Cheesy

ok, that's almost as bad as that investor who, in 1929, was getting his shoes shined and the fricken SHOE SHINE BOY was talking about stocks and such. guy went and pulled his investments immediately. crashed happened the next day or something. i forget who this was. one of the big names.

I don't think the analogy works with bitcoin.  Our goal has been to push adoption in order to push main stream acceptance and usage.  I find it strange that all of a sudden we are trying to act shocked, SHOCKED, that people we talk to about bitcoin continuously start to show interest in bitcoins.

People talking about bitcoin is not a sign of a bubble. People being interested in bitcoin is not a sign of a bubble.  It's a sign that bitcoin is doing what it is supposed to be doing.

fair point. that assumes it's adoption driving the price rise though. if it is, your right. great. if it's not, and just speculators or something? could still go bad.

personally i am hoping for the moon shot.

What is unique about bitcoin is that the price has to be high enough for it to be useful. I mean who doesn't want to send money internationally without paying high fees? Who doesn't want to put their wealth in cold storage somewhere they can check on from time to time? But in order for all this to happen, the market has to be liquid enough in the first place.

I am not the kind of people who will believe in a moon shot, but I will at least postpone my outburst of fear uncertainty and doubt from taking over me before we reach triple digits, the rally has to continue for bitcoin to survive, if you had been through the bottom of 2011 you will know how outrageously manipulated the market was then, simply because it was too small. Judging by percentage variation, the volatility now is way lower than it was then, and such volatility would not allow any business to run properly.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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March 21, 2013, 06:08:31 AM
 #14637

What is unique about bitcoin is that the price has to be high enough for it to be useful. I mean who doesn't want to send money internationally without paying high fees? Who doesn't want to put their wealth in cold storage somewhere they can check from time to time? But in order for all this to happen, the market has to be liquid enough in the first place.

I am not the kind of people who will believe in a moon shot, but I will at least postpone outburst of fear uncertainty and doubt before we reach triple digits, the rally has to continue for bitcoin to survive, if you had been through the bottom of 2011 you will know how outrageously manipulated the market was then, simply because it is too small. Judging by percentage variation, the volatility now is way lower than it was then.

words of wisdom
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March 21, 2013, 06:10:52 AM
 #14638

continuing off-topic.. the attention on bitcoin from the Cyprus news and FinCEN has probably gotten to a few ultra-high net worth people.  someone bought $1mil in coin today, and let's remember there are hundreds of people in the world for whom $1mil is a very small percentage of their savings.  hundreds of people for whom $1mil is less of their savings than $1,000 is to you.  the impact on price is obvious.

but the peas coming along with that carrot is that with such high net worth people into bitcoin, it will become more legitimate in some ways.  certainly there would be more legal hoops to jump through if a government wanted to outlaw something which some rich guy's lawyers on retainer will be paid to defend.  still not exactly a "robust economy," but value in being an alternative to traditional banking.
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March 21, 2013, 07:06:50 AM
 #14639

I sold almost everything now  Cry Just some BTC in cold storage and some S.DICE shares left. Didn't expect to have that much fiat so soon. This escalated really quickly.  Shocked Anyway, enjoy my bitcoins whoever bought it. Hopefully it will go still upwards, I don't think many early adopters with decent amounts of bitcoins are still in the game and new hands look strong enough not to sell anytime soon.
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March 21, 2013, 07:11:51 AM
 #14640

I sold almost everything now  Cry Just some BTC in cold storage and some S.DICE shares left. Didn't expect to have that much fiat so soon. This escalated really quickly.  Shocked Anyway, enjoy my bitcoins whoever bought it. Hopefully it will go still upwards, I don't think many early adopters with decent amounts of bitcoins are still in the game and new hands look strong enough not to sell anytime soon.

Well, profit is profit. Just don't kick yourself when you see tripple digits. Smiley

It seemed like a good idea at the time.
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