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[marvinrouge]

From now I think I will only trade longterm. Impossible to follow any signals here, with all up and down there is just noise.

[zimmah]

From now I think I will only trade longterm. Impossible to follow any signals here, with all up and down there is just noise.

my plan exactly, both in game as well as IRL.

holding is often the best tactic when in doubt.

yes, I could have sold when it was still $600 and bought back 3 times the amount of bitcoin.

but honestly I never expected this bear market to last this long.

And I seriously doubt it will drop much below this point. I'm not going to risk it. I know how fast bitcoin can change either way. And at this point, if it drops, I'll be able to buy several extra coins anyway, but if it rises, I won't be able to rebuy if I sold at this point. Because I wouldn't be able to afford it then.

So I'll just sit and hope it will go back to 4 figures and beyond, and if it doesn't, too bad.

[itod]

And I seriously doubt it will drop much below this point.

I don't think so, but you have a point. The chance of going <$200 is really big IMHO, but the big question is is the profit work the risk of sudden and permanent move upwards?

Point is that those who haven't cared if that will happen accumulated so much profit in the past year, that any loss from a sudden upwards move is already more than enough compensated. The trick is to judge if the same strategy will pay again in the future, or not.

[dnaleor]

Bitcoinaverage is down, and it's not just me: http://www.downforeveryoneorjustme.com/http://www.bitcoinaverage.com/

A few minutes ago it was 227.8, so please check the logs cause I would like to:

Buy @ $227.8 (?)

wasn't able to check it, back home now and updating.
I used 227.8

[dnaleor]

All updated!

Tonight the new activity check will start.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I think Ima cut my loose
Sell
@225.18

[zimmah]

And I seriously doubt it will drop much below this point.

I don't think so, but you have a point. The chance of going <$200 is really big IMHO, but the big question is is the profit work the risk of sudden and permanent move upwards?

Point is that those who haven't cared if that will happen accumulated so much profit in the past year, that any loss from a sudden upwards move is already more than enough compensated. The trick is to judge if the same strategy will pay again in the future, or not.

if it drops from this point, the price will be so low most people can throw a few weeks worth of salary to buy a several bitcoin

that is, if we assume they trust the price goes up from there.

i mean $200 is quite a bargain. Sub $200 even more.

it shouldn't even be at a low right now, looking at the volume, amount of users (wallets), transactions, acceptance, etc.

pretty much everything is higher than it ever was, except the value. It just doesnt make sense.

The number of daily transactions, while we are in a dip, is higher than it was during the ATH in december, and yet the market cap is not even 25% of what it was back then.

[RyNinDaCleM]

And I seriously doubt it will drop much below this point.

I don't think so, but you have a point. The chance of going <$200 is really big IMHO, but the big question is is the profit work the risk of sudden and permanent move upwards?

Point is that those who haven't cared if that will happen accumulated so much profit in the past year, that any loss from a sudden upwards move is already more than enough compensated. The trick is to judge if the same strategy will pay again in the future, or not.

if it drops from this point, the price will be so low most people can throw a few weeks worth of salary to buy a several bitcoin

that is, if we assume they trust the price goes up from there.

i mean $200 is quite a bargain. Sub $200 even more.

it shouldn't even be at a low right now, looking at the volume, amount of users (wallets), transactions, acceptance, etc.

pretty much everything is higher than it ever was, except the value. It just doesnt make sense.

The number of daily transactions, while we are in a dip, is higher than it was during the ATH in december, and yet the market cap is not even 25% of what it was back then.

It could be that the price was so over-inflated that the fundamentals are only now catching up. Even after so much pull back of the price. Not to mention price seems to oscillate around fundamentals and we may overshoot in the other direction similar to overshooting to the upside in 2013. Adoption doesn't create a floor and in the same respect a lack thereof didn't create a ceiling. We shot to 1163 before most of the businesses accepted Bitcoin and before so many more people entered the market. That bubble is what drew so much adoption in.

[zimmah]

good point, you could be right

still i dont think the price should be this low though

about $300~400 maybe, but not $200

[Elwar]

Over $300 yet?

Hmm, nope.

Hold.

[oda.krell]

It could be that the price was so over-inflated that the fundamentals are only now catching up. Even after so much pull back of the price. Not to mention price seems to oscillate around fundamentals and we may overshoot in the other direction similar to overshooting to the upside in 2013. Adoption doesn't create a floor and in the same respect a lack thereof didn't create a ceiling. We shot to 1163 before most of the businesses accepted Bitcoin and before so many more people entered the market. That bubble is what drew so much adoption in.

Great post, great explanation.

I've argued a few times (in other threads) that there is such a thing as an absolute valuation floor per coin (based on a given USD denominated transactional value of the network), but I also think that 'hard' transactional floor is much below current price, so it's not in effect (yet ).

Other than that, I completely agree with your point: fundamentals matter a lot, but the market vastly overshoots them from time to time, or, like now, undershoots them in all likelihood.

[dnaleor]

Activity check started

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[slowmo1983]

i guess i am red but i am still active... just not trading, only hodling...

[N12]

zZZZZZzzzzzzZZZZZZZ

[elasticband]

Activity check started

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I'm not red, Although i am a long term hodler, i still check into this thread and write some pointless bullshit drivel about my wife and bank manager divorcing me. 

can i just announce myself hodling until we hit the $300 range again......

[dnaleor]

Activity check started

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I'm not red, Although i am a long term hodler, i still check into this thread and write some pointless bullshit drivel about my wife and bank manager divorcing me.  

can i just announce myself hodling until we hit the $300 range again......

rambling about your wife and bank manager counts as being active

It's too difficult to keep track of such requests. Posting once in 10 days is enough to be counted as active.

[oda.krell]

Ha, nice. It seems that I'm assumed by default to be an 'active' bagholder

Or maybe my occasional off-topic rants in here help.

[h3speros]

SELL @ 226.24

we have closed below d20, strong indecision, could be wave 2

[lyth0s]

Ha, nice. It seems that I'm assumed by default to be an 'active' bagholder

Or maybe my occasional off-topic rants in here help.

I would be offended to not be considered an active bagholder

[N12]

sell@219.94