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Author Topic: [Trading Simulator] A fun & free Speculation Game - SWITCH TO BPI ON JULY 15 !!!  (Read 241362 times)
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Miz4r
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March 03, 2015, 03:45:53 PM
 #1341

BUY @ 269.35

Bitcoin = Gold on steroids
Omikifuse
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March 03, 2015, 06:17:34 PM
 #1342

After such rise I only managed to climb one position Sad

(And I'm active waiting 300 again)
Chris_Sabian
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March 03, 2015, 06:24:05 PM
 #1343

BUY $279.90
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March 03, 2015, 07:08:15 PM
 #1344

buy @282.52

Bear trapped, overslept, FOMO, deep in red.  Sad
On a positive side: CCMF!!!  Smiley

Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
dnaleor (OP)
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March 03, 2015, 07:10:05 PM
 #1345

All updated!
dnaleor (OP)
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March 03, 2015, 07:11:28 PM
 #1346

Bear trapped, overslept, FOMO, deep in red.  Sad
On a positive side: CCMF!!!  Smiley

Let the Choo Choo fuck our mothers!
 Grin Grin Grin


edit:
the BTC HODL position is now almost as high as the median!
Tzupy
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March 03, 2015, 07:35:08 PM
 #1347

Just observing the game: many seem to believe in a repeat of the 26th January, in which case there's still some 50$ room upwards.
But by comparison with the 26th something doesn't feel right, seems like bulls don't have enough ammo left.
Bulls should pump strongly very soon, or this may turn into a repeat of the 15th February.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
freedomno1
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March 03, 2015, 07:56:26 PM
 #1348

Just observing the game: many seem to believe in a repeat of the 26th January, in which case there's still some 50$ room upwards.
But by comparison with the 26th something doesn't feel right, seems like bulls don't have enough ammo left.
Bulls should pump strongly very soon, or this may turn into a repeat of the 15th February.

SELL @ 282.29

It is chopping back and forth a lot right now
Was around 260 then back to 280 the range is interesting
In a sense your right this is a bull bear resistance battle depending on the people with the most push that is where the price will go

Going to use that choppiness myself if it lasts as sideways trading speculation duration 8 hour and see if it's in the downward part of the sideways shaking then.

Believing in Bitcoins and it's ability to change the world
dnaleor (OP)
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March 03, 2015, 07:58:30 PM
 #1349

Just observing the game: many seem to believe in a repeat of the 26th January, in which case there's still some 50$ room upwards.
But by comparison with the 26th something doesn't feel right, seems like bulls don't have enough ammo left.
Bulls should pump strongly very soon, or this may turn into a repeat of the 15th February.

or bulls should just keep buying at a normal rate, and the trend reversal will manifest itself Smiley
Miz4r
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March 03, 2015, 08:34:46 PM
 #1350

Just observing the game: many seem to believe in a repeat of the 26th January, in which case there's still some 50$ room upwards.
But by comparison with the 26th something doesn't feel right, seems like bulls don't have enough ammo left.
Bulls should pump strongly very soon, or this may turn into a repeat of the 15th February.

That doesn't make any sense. The stronger and faster the pump the harder the dump afterwards, that's what we saw on the 15th of February where the price went too high too fast. Bears have tried to dump a few times already but are getting quickly punished by the bulls which is a sign of strength. We'll see how long it lasts, I hope we can consolidate a bit between 280-300 before making a push towards 350. Smiley

Bitcoin = Gold on steroids
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March 03, 2015, 09:29:54 PM
 #1351

Hodling
dnaleor (OP)
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March 03, 2015, 11:05:45 PM
 #1352

SELL @281.49
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March 04, 2015, 07:24:09 AM
 #1353

BUY @ 278.69
Back in again waiting for that auction
Buy on the hype/rumor Sell on the news XD

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March 04, 2015, 10:59:38 AM
 #1354

SELL @281.49

BUY @279.08 USD
Miz4r
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March 04, 2015, 04:49:11 PM
 #1355

SELL @ 283.81

Bitcoin = Gold on steroids
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March 04, 2015, 05:48:40 PM
 #1356

All updated!

about 6 hours left to post something if your rank number is marked RED on the scoreboard
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March 04, 2015, 06:41:20 PM
 #1357

SELL @ 282.94
Looks like it's stopped around here for now

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March 04, 2015, 07:07:20 PM
 #1358

Sell @ 282.14$

"To know death, Otto, you have to fuck life in the gallbladder"
www.hsbc.com  - The world´s local bank
"These FUDsters are insane egomaniacs that just want cheap BTC" - oblivi
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March 04, 2015, 08:23:00 PM
 #1359

sell @ 280.05
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March 05, 2015, 01:53:35 AM
 #1360

re: % vs. absolute gains.

It's the old question: who is the "better" trader? The guy who made a profit of 200% over some time span, but is trading with trivial amounts, or the one who manages to squeeze out a meager, say, 50% over the same time, but did so with a much bigger position.

In "real life", cost of trading factors in heavily, so the two types are sort of incomparable: if trader (a) manages to sustain those huge profits on his small position long enough, he will eventually get to the size of trader (b), in which case they become comparable.

Meh, long story for what I actually want to say: since this is a zero trading cost game (which is fine, it just means it rewards trading often slightly more than real life), and you can trade your (virtual) position identically whether it's 1 BTC or 1000, I'm actually thinking the default order should be percentage gain anyway. (and, no, doesn't make a difference for me personally. I won't be among the first 10 in either case Tongue)


(EDIT) wait... how about:

(current position, USD value - starting position, USD value) / starting position, USD value = relative gains

(current date - starting date of player) in days = playing time

(relative gains / playing time)*365 = annualized relative gains of player <= default sorting order

Someone look over it to see if I made a mistake, bit of a brain fog day....


nevermind, it's BS Cheesy

(EDIT 2) Top 20 if ordered by relative gains (which also happens to be the set of all players with a USD profit currently)



I'll start by saying, there can never be a 'best' ranking. I think the system, as you have it, works great.
Invariably, different people will look at the same data and come to different conclusions. The metric you have - total value (normalized for variable entry times) is about as pure as you can get.

Disclaimer aside, there has been _something_ nagging at me. I went back and read oda's strikethrough, and was amused to see he was starting down the same path I'm going to propose.

The problem?
All these new guys keep coming up to the top, and in a few days, knocks us veterans down in the list.

...except that is not really a problem at all - it is the perfectly expected outcome, given the nature of trading.  Most traders lose money.  The good ones don't _typically_ go posting all their trades publicly, except when posturing.

Naturally, we are all trying to make a profit in the game. But in the long run, on the average, most traders will lose.
It naturally follows that new players will tend to be in the upper rankings, simply because they have not yet played.

One (additional, non-primary) metric that could be valuable is the average rate of change of the size of our holdings per month.

An example.
30 players start on day 1.
20 more players start on day 32.
At the end of two months, we now have 50 players, 30 have played 2 months, 20 have played 1 month.  That makes 80 months of game time.  Let us say cumulatively that 30 players make 5%, and the other 20 players lose 10%.  All told, the average rate of loss per month is -1% (+150%, -200%, net -50, divided by 50 players.)

This value would be calculated, because each individual player only needs three facts, all of which we already have: Their start date, their start value, and their current value.
This allows us to output a derived value for individual rate of change per month.
The raw data can be summed for the playerbase-as-a-whole rate of change.

And of course, just to make it hurt, we could include a few other metrics to compare against, such as:
-The Ultimate HODLER - A rate of change of 0% never doing anything.
-The Blind Squirrel - A random coin-flip decides each day whether to reverse positions or hold.
-Your own trading account's rate of change over time.


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