Challenge: What's the best way to win 1 BTC with 1 BTC?

[knowhow]

Try strikesapphire.com. I got banned, but the last I heard they weren't shuffling every hand. The penetration was very poor, but I think the game was still +EV if played right.

Would you like to share why they banned you? were you winning too much? very curious about it

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91587.msg1018652#msg1018652

I was winning too much, but I was also reporting too many bugs, being too pedantic about stuff, and taking advantage of +EV offers. I was also referring friends to the site and the owner thought they weren't real people, even after having spoken to at least one of them on Skype with me.

Thanks for answering and sharing the link.....both weird and funny story anyway

Well i had spent some time reading those topic and all i read where the user were counting cards and being able to profit from it,soo they find those and improved the game ,but well reporting the bugs on the casino and have a strategy will lead into a ban because the player is winning?Casinos has atleast their comission made by the players that loose and well being 1 or 5% the houses takes should be enought but oh well.
I consider gambling a huge risk to try to make 1 btc with 1 btc is insane to bet such hoping to get more and very fast.

[StevenLiang]

I have actually been gambling by only betting on Sports.
Even though I agree that including poker its the best way to gamble, I feel without proper bankroll management even the good pickers mess up.

I have in the past bet my entire bank roll on matches that were clear favourites to win but lost because my player lost in the 3rd set. So as long as you can do proper bankroll management like poker, then with sports betting it is comparatively easier to recover the 1 BTC with 1 BTC. IMO

Regards,

[dooglus]

I was winning too much, but I was also reporting too many bugs, being too pedantic about stuff, and taking advantage of +EV offers. I was also referring friends to the site and the owner thought they weren't real people, even after having spoken to at least one of them on Skype with me.

woa how u did that?? haha care to share what happen previously? and ur stragety???

I was winning by counting cards at blackjack. I had discussed the strategy with the site owner, and he was fine with it. He even went so far as to tell me my strategy wouldn't work because I was doing it wrong. I was leaving the table whenever the count went negative rather than playing the shoe out until it went positive again. Sitting at a new table gave me a new shoe with a 0 count, which I figured had to be better than the negative shoe I was playing with, so I'd switch, and it worked.

[knowhow]

Well i guess the admin thinked tou taked advantage from the bug or what it had called it to profit.Gambling will be the fast way to achieve such but the risk well is very high .

[darkangel11]

Playing cards with someone. You can also try trading but it won't be the fastest nor the easiest way.

[dooglus]

]Ahh touché, forgot I wrote that. I can't remember if you own dooglus on mp or if that's an imposter, so I've credited the 0.1 btc to dooglus on bustabit. Enjoy!

I've had a run of good luck, and doubled it so far:

[BitMaxz]

My method is to feel my moves and if i feel or think im lose with this move im lowering my bet then if i feel it will win im higher the bet. thats my way  so you need to feel it and think before you bet.Then you need to sacrifice high amount before you get to win or double you capital..

[agustina2]

All of the suggested ways is risky and can't be called the best but if you win. Yeah party time.

Bet all 1BTC to a 2x payout in dice. Yes in just one click so result is fast.

[panjul07]

All of the suggested ways is risky and can't be called the best but if you win. Yeah party time.

Bet all 1BTC to a 2x payout in dice. Yes in just one click so result is fast.

So do you mean that your suggestion is not risky? I think there is no safe way to win 1btc with 1btc, most of strategies are always risky. But I agree with you that to bet all the 1btc with 2x payout is the fastest way to win and fastest way to lose as well

[jpouza]

My method is to feel my moves and if i feel or think im lose with this move im lowering my bet then if i feel it will win im higher the bet. thats my way  so you need to feel it and think before you bet.Then you need to sacrifice high amount before you get to win or double you capital..

Feel the dice? feel the moviment?

That´s very ethereous 

[darkangel11]

My method is to feel my moves and if i feel or think im lose with this move im lowering my bet then if i feel it will win im higher the bet. thats my way  so you need to feel it and think before you bet.Then you need to sacrifice high amount before you get to win or double you capital..

Feel the dice? feel the moviment?

That´s very ethereous  

You have to imagine holding the dice in your hand while clicking "roll" on the screen LOL

[StevenLiang]

All of the suggested ways is risky and can't be called the best but if you win. Yeah party time.

Bet all 1BTC to a 2x payout in dice. Yes in just one click so result is fast.

So far, this the the quickest way to double 1 BTC to 2 BTC.
Win or lose is your consequence's.
If you want try this way, try it in trusted site such as crypto-games.net, and many other dice sites.

[BTC Tipster]

How about this:

bet 0.01088928 BTC @ 1.0664%
if you win, your profit is ((99 / 1.0664) - 1) * 0.01088928 = 1.00002474 BTC
if not, martingale at the same chance of winning, to keep the same net profit
you can afford 64 bets
chance of winning =  100 * (1 - ((100 - 1.0664) / 100) ** 64) = 49.649475445976265%

Edit: here are the 64 bets:

       chance  multiplier      
        1.0664% 92.83570893x    
                  
bet #       stake  total lost      profit
-----  ---------- -----------  ----------
 1     0.01088902              1.00000087
 2     0.01100759  0.01088902  1.00000081
 3     0.01112745  0.02189661  1.00000065
 4     0.01124861  0.03302406  1.00000001
 5     0.01137110  0.04427267  1.00000036
 6     0.01149492  0.05564377  1.00000036
 7     0.01162009  0.06713869  1.00000051
 8     0.01174662  0.07875878  1.00000040
 9     0.01187453  0.09050540  1.00000048
10     0.01200383  0.10237993  1.00000031
11     0.01213454  0.11438376  1.00000032
12     0.01226667  0.12651830  1.00000004
13     0.01240025  0.13878497  1.00000078
14     0.01253527  0.15118522  1.00000019
15     0.01267177  0.16372049  1.00000049
16     0.01280975  0.17639226  1.00000021
17     0.01294924  0.18920201  1.00000063
18     0.01309024  0.20215125  1.00000022
19     0.01323278  0.21524149  1.00000024
20     0.01337687  0.22847427  1.00000007
21     0.01352254  0.24185114  1.00000091
22     0.01366978  0.25537368  1.00000026
23     0.01381863  0.26904346  1.00000022
24     0.01396910  0.28286209  1.00000011
25     0.01412121  0.29683119  1.00000014
26     0.01427498  0.31095240  1.00000051
27     0.01443042  0.32522738  1.00000047
28     0.01458755  0.33965780  1.00000020
29     0.01474640  0.35424535  1.00000075
30     0.01490697  0.36899175  1.00000041
31     0.01506929  0.38389872  1.00000021
32     0.01523338  0.39896801  1.00000024
33     0.01539926  0.41420139  1.00000057
34     0.01556694  0.42960065  1.00000032
35     0.01573645  0.44516759  1.00000045
36     0.01590780  0.46090404  1.00000005
37     0.01608102  0.47681184  1.00000003
38     0.01625613  0.49289286  1.00000036
39     0.01643314  0.50914899  1.00000007
40     0.01661208  0.52558213  1.00000001
41     0.01679297  0.54219421  1.00000009
42     0.01697583  0.55898718  1.00000020
43     0.01716068  0.57596301  1.00000020
44     0.01734755  0.59312369  1.00000086
45     0.01753644  0.61047124  1.00000016
46     0.01772740  0.62800768  1.00000067
47     0.01792043  0.64573508  1.00000031
48     0.01811557  0.66365551  1.00000070
49     0.01831283  0.68177108  1.00000065
50     0.01851224  0.70008391  1.00000077
51     0.01871382  0.71859615  1.00000078
52     0.01891759  0.73730997  1.00000032
53     0.01912359  0.75622756  1.00000088
54     0.01933182  0.77535115  1.00000024
55     0.01954233  0.79468297  1.00000076
56     0.01975512  0.81422530  1.00000015
57     0.01997024  0.83398042  1.00000073
58     0.02018769  0.85395066  1.00000016
59     0.02040752  0.87413835  1.00000072
60     0.02062973  0.89454587  1.00000001
61     0.02085437  0.91517560  1.00000025
62     0.02108146  0.93602997  1.00000085
63     0.02131101  0.95711143  1.00000028
64     0.02154307  0.97842244  1.00000067
                   0.99996551        

Edit: and the calculations showing that it works for the first 5 bets:

>>> 0.01088902 * (99/1.0664 - 1)
1.0000008712228057
>>> 0.01100759 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902
1.0000008112303074
>>> 0.01112745 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759
1.0000006493023257
>>> 0.01124861 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759 - 0.01112745
1.0000000137959488
>>> 0.01137110 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759 - 0.01112745 - 0.01124861
1.0000003597824456

Edit2: I can make ever increasing longer sequences which do slightly better, but it appears never to beat 49.65222222222% chance of doubling.

It worked in PD:

Code:

Session Wagered:
0.00000156

Session Profit:
0.00000214

Session Bets:
156

[Financisto]

Good discussion about math behind a dicegame.

Full of probability and statistics.

I like that...

[ndnh]

Initial bet : 0.0001BTC
On lose multiply by : 1.0001010101x

Playing at 9900x

With a bankroll of 1BTC, the player can afford 6912 rolls.

Chance to win is 49.90770579% on 1% edge. ?


or is it 49.5567818%?

[dooglus]

Initial bet : 0.0001BTC
On lose multiply by : 1.0001010101x

Playing at 9900x

If you win your first bet you stop with a profit of 9899 * 0.0001 = 0.9899 BTC

The goal is to make a profit of 1 BTC.

I think you need to play with a higher multiplier or something.

Let's set the payout multiplier (m) and work everything out from there.

m = 10001, say

The probability (c) of a bet winning at that multiplier is:
  c = 0.99 / m

The starting bet to win 1 BTC at multiplier m is:
  a = 1.0 / (m - 1)

The amount we need to multiply the stake by when we lose to maintain the same net profit is:
  r = (1+a) / ((m-1)*a) = a+1 = m / (m - 1)

The stake on the nth bet will be:
  a * r ** (n-1)

The sum of stakes for the first n bets will be:
  a * (1 - r**n) / (1 - r)

The number of bets we can afford to make is:
  math.floor(math.log((a - 1 + r) / a, r)) = math.floor(math.log(2, r))

The probability of winning in the first n bets will be:
  (1 - (1 - c) ** n)

And so the probability of doubling up successfully is:
  (1 - (1 - c) ** math.floor(math.log(2, r)))

Using this we can quickly calculate the chance of doubling up for various payout multipliers:

>>> for m in range(2, 20):
  c = 0.99 / m; a = 1.0 / (m-1); r = a+1;
  print m, (1 - (1 - c) ** math.floor(math.log(2, r)))

2 0.495
3 0.33
4 0.43374375
5 0.484150392
6 0.417817125
7 0.456617399413
8 0.483416946706
9 0.4415940551
10 0.465006203908
11 0.483238980643
12 0.452678497552
13 0.469363352144
14 0.483175196779
15 0.494793694573
16 0.472032613906
17 0.483147625356
18 0.492797130255
19 0.473835743219

>>> for m in range(100, 1000, 100):
  c = 0.99 / m; a = 1.0 / (m-1); r = a+1;
  print m, (1 - (1 - c) ** math.floor(math.log(2, r)))

100 0.491634447195
200 0.495807062928
300 0.495521270088
400 0.495378549439
500 0.496292293111
600 0.496068806433
700 0.495909161472
800 0.49641338199
900 0.496251020552

1000 0.496121110593
2000 0.496285044722
3000 0.496505870593
4000 0.496491615824
5000 0.496483063523
6000 0.496477362221
7000 0.496473289977
8000 0.496470235856
9000 0.496467860466

10000 0.496515810046
20000 0.496507258615
30000 0.496521023585
40000 0.496515444608
50000 0.496522066276
60000 0.496518173205
70000 0.49651539243
80000 0.49651953749
90000 0.496517223088

100000 0.496520356059
200000 0.496521993186
300000 0.496520877415
400000 0.496521565628
500000 0.496521978562
600000 0.496521423111
700000 0.496521738439
800000 0.496521974923
900000 0.49652215884

1000000 0.496521807542
2000000 0.496522220475
3000000 0.496522191972
4000000 0.496522177798
5000000 0.496522169092
6000000 0.496522163469
7000000 0.496522159358
8000000 0.496522218726
9000000 0.49652220935

1000000 0.496521807542
2000000 0.496522220475
3000000 0.496522191972
4000000 0.496522177798
5000000 0.496522169092
6000000 0.496522163469
7000000 0.496522159358
8000000 0.496522218726
9000000 0.49652220935

10000000 0.496522201834
20000000 0.496522218205
30000000 0.496522223275
40000000 0.496522214705
50000000 0.496522217672
60000000 0.496522221587
70000000 0.496522222003
80000000 0.496522225028
90000000 0.496522226175

100000000 0.496522217899
200000000 0.496522220646
300000000 0.496522230602
400000000 0.496522220218
500000000 0.496522232255
600000000 0.496522238624
700000000 0.496522223637
800000000 0.496522212528
900000000 0.49652220586

This is consistent with my post back in February where I found:

I can make ever increasing longer sequences which do slightly better, but it appears never to beat 49.65222222222% chance of doubling.

What's the significance of that 49.65222222222% number?

[ndnh]

Initial bet : 0.0001BTC
On lose multiply by : 1.0001010101x

Playing at 9900x

If you win your first bet you stop with a profit of 9899 * 0.0001 = 0.9899 BTC

The goal is to make a profit of 1 BTC.

I think you need to play with a higher multiplier or something.

hehehe yeah.

[dooglus]

Initial bet : 0.0001BTC
On lose multiply by : 1.0001010101x

Playing at 9900x

If you win your first bet you stop with a profit of 9899 * 0.0001 = 0.9899 BTC

The goal is to make a profit of 1 BTC.

I think you need to play with a higher multiplier or something.

hehehe yeah.

Here's a plot of the probability of doubling up against the payout multiplier you use:



I'd love an explanation of why it tops out at 0.496522222!

[mexxer-2]

Hmm just thought about it, has OP yet paid the prize he has claimed to pay to the best method or is he still searching for more strats?

[dooglus]

Hmm just thought about it, has OP yet paid the prize he has claimed to pay to the best method or is he still searching for more strats?

He already paid, and it's likely we have the best strategy already.