Challenge: What's the best way to win 1 BTC with 1 BTC?

[jpouza]

If you are an experienced trader, you could win 1 btc with 1 btc for sure, specially with altcoins in the past, now I think BTC only trade is more solid.

Yes. Now a days only btcoin gets more volume compared to any other alt coins. But trading in bitcoin with a predetermined target of 1 bitcoin might not be good idea as the target set will make you over trade and result in unwanted things. Wait for good opportunity and trade only on those.

Unfortunatly altcoins are in the mud today, it was really a good chance to win some BTC in the exchange in the past, also Bitcoin's future is uncertain.

[adaseb]

If you are an experienced trader, you could win 1 btc with 1 btc for sure, specially with altcoins in the past, now I think BTC only trade is more solid.

Yes. Now a days only btcoin gets more volume compared to any other alt coins. But trading in bitcoin with a predetermined target of 1 bitcoin might not be good idea as the target set will make you over trade and result in unwanted things. Wait for good opportunity and trade only on those.

Unfortunatly altcoins are in the mud today, it was really a good chance to win some BTC in the exchange in the past, also Bitcoin's future is uncertain.

No its hard making money with altcoins, its easier if you can find one that you can short because most Altcoins go down to 1 satoshi. Look at NMC or DRK even, never gaining any actual value ever.

[jackg]

Challenge: The person who provides the best way to win 1 BTC using a bankroll of 1 BTC. I will give 0.1 BTC to (payable to their moneypot account).

Assuming the constraints of a dice site such as bitdice.me or pocketrocketscasino.eu: 1% house edge, 9900x max payout, 1 satoshi minimum bet.  Provide a well-defined betting sequence to maximize the chance of winning 1 BTC. If I don't have the skills to analytically analyse your solution, I will be forced to simulate it over a few billion runs. Your betting sequence must be FULLY specified without any ambiguities.

Let me start with the most obvious solution:


Bet 1 BTC @ 2x  ... which gives an EV of -0.01, and a chance of winning at 49.5%

if you go to betcoin.tm or follow the 777coin.com link in my signature, you can bamble 10 mBTC at a time and have a greater chance of winning, with a lesser chance of loosing on a game such as blackjack which is slightly easier to play, than other games!

[quadriple7]

i think the best way would be to just do an all in bet and hope that you will be lucky enough to win it as there is no possible way to beat the house edge

[jpouza]

i think the best way would be to just do an all in bet and hope that you will be lucky enough to win it as there is no possible way to beat the house edge

All in is crazy, you must be a very "exotic" person to do this 

[Financisto]

Strategy 1:
You're always playing 9900x using a martingale sequence, i.e. your wager for each round is

Code:

ceiling((2 - PLAYER_BR)/9899,1e-8)

you run out of funds after 6861 bets. You lose all of them with a probability of

Code:

0.9999^6861 = 0.5035187605260536

or put differently you have a 49.64812% chance of winning.

Strategy 2:
You're constantly playing 20203 satoshi but increase the payout each round by exactly 1x starting at 4951x which will leave you with 1.00004850 BTC profit. You run out of funds after 4949 games and your last payout will be 9899x. You lose all of them with a probability of

Code:

prod(1-0.99/i, i=4949..9899) = 0.5035283796177312

leading to a 49.64716% chance of winning.

I Hope the math is correct  

How about this:

bet 0.01088928 BTC @ 1.0664%
if you win, your profit is ((99 / 1.0664) - 1) * 0.01088928 = 1.00002474 BTC
if not, martingale at the same chance of winning, to keep the same net profit
you can afford 64 bets
chance of winning =  100 * (1 - ((100 - 1.0664) / 100) ** 64) = 49.649475445976265%

Edit: here are the 64 bets:

       chance  multiplier      
        1.0664% 92.83570893x    
                  
bet #       stake  total lost      profit
-----  ---------- -----------  ----------
 1     0.01088902              1.00000087
 2     0.01100759  0.01088902  1.00000081
 3     0.01112745  0.02189661  1.00000065
 4     0.01124861  0.03302406  1.00000001
 5     0.01137110  0.04427267  1.00000036
 6     0.01149492  0.05564377  1.00000036
 7     0.01162009  0.06713869  1.00000051
 8     0.01174662  0.07875878  1.00000040
 9     0.01187453  0.09050540  1.00000048
10     0.01200383  0.10237993  1.00000031
11     0.01213454  0.11438376  1.00000032
12     0.01226667  0.12651830  1.00000004
13     0.01240025  0.13878497  1.00000078
14     0.01253527  0.15118522  1.00000019
15     0.01267177  0.16372049  1.00000049
16     0.01280975  0.17639226  1.00000021
17     0.01294924  0.18920201  1.00000063
18     0.01309024  0.20215125  1.00000022
19     0.01323278  0.21524149  1.00000024
20     0.01337687  0.22847427  1.00000007
21     0.01352254  0.24185114  1.00000091
22     0.01366978  0.25537368  1.00000026
23     0.01381863  0.26904346  1.00000022
24     0.01396910  0.28286209  1.00000011
25     0.01412121  0.29683119  1.00000014
26     0.01427498  0.31095240  1.00000051
27     0.01443042  0.32522738  1.00000047
28     0.01458755  0.33965780  1.00000020
29     0.01474640  0.35424535  1.00000075
30     0.01490697  0.36899175  1.00000041
31     0.01506929  0.38389872  1.00000021
32     0.01523338  0.39896801  1.00000024
33     0.01539926  0.41420139  1.00000057
34     0.01556694  0.42960065  1.00000032
35     0.01573645  0.44516759  1.00000045
36     0.01590780  0.46090404  1.00000005
37     0.01608102  0.47681184  1.00000003
38     0.01625613  0.49289286  1.00000036
39     0.01643314  0.50914899  1.00000007
40     0.01661208  0.52558213  1.00000001
41     0.01679297  0.54219421  1.00000009
42     0.01697583  0.55898718  1.00000020
43     0.01716068  0.57596301  1.00000020
44     0.01734755  0.59312369  1.00000086
45     0.01753644  0.61047124  1.00000016
46     0.01772740  0.62800768  1.00000067
47     0.01792043  0.64573508  1.00000031
48     0.01811557  0.66365551  1.00000070
49     0.01831283  0.68177108  1.00000065
50     0.01851224  0.70008391  1.00000077
51     0.01871382  0.71859615  1.00000078
52     0.01891759  0.73730997  1.00000032
53     0.01912359  0.75622756  1.00000088
54     0.01933182  0.77535115  1.00000024
55     0.01954233  0.79468297  1.00000076
56     0.01975512  0.81422530  1.00000015
57     0.01997024  0.83398042  1.00000073
58     0.02018769  0.85395066  1.00000016
59     0.02040752  0.87413835  1.00000072
60     0.02062973  0.89454587  1.00000001
61     0.02085437  0.91517560  1.00000025
62     0.02108146  0.93602997  1.00000085
63     0.02131101  0.95711143  1.00000028
64     0.02154307  0.97842244  1.00000067
                   0.99996551        

Edit: and the calculations showing that it works for the first 5 bets:

>>> 0.01088902 * (99/1.0664 - 1)
1.0000008712228057
>>> 0.01100759 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902
1.0000008112303074
>>> 0.01112745 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759
1.0000006493023257
>>> 0.01124861 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759 - 0.01112745
1.0000000137959488
>>> 0.01137110 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759 - 0.01112745 - 0.01124861
1.0000003597824456

Edit2: I can make ever increasing longer sequences which do slightly better, but it appears never to beat 49.65222222222% chance of doubling.

I wonder if:

Anyone tried/tested that already?

Any testimony of good/bad luck (success/failure)?

[dooglus]

can someone please script this? xD

I expect dicebot can already do this.

Also if i use this strategy at a 0.4% house edge do i actually beat house edge?

No. You can never beat the house edge, or even change it (unless you are cheating, of course).

[reda]

also this may sound dumb but is there a percentage at which the bet is being increased at

If need to more profit. Most of the people use the gambling. But before star the gambling you know the all process. It any time to get more profit. So check the gambling people then use the Bitcoin. If you have a bankroll of 1 btc, try this 70% start with 1000k sats, bet only one way, 10x after 4 losses. It will take time but it will work. Just try. But check the process and rules is important for this process. It change your life.

[dooglus]

also this may sound dumb but is there a percentage at which the bet is being increased at

Each bet increases the previous one by 100 / ((99 / 1.0664) - 1) percent.

That's around 1.0889%

[dooglus]

It will take time but it will work. Just try. But check the process and rules is important for this process. It change your life.

Are you claiming to have a winning system? How much has it won for you so far? Why don't you automate the process and win all the Bitcoins?

[BTCevo]

also this may sound dumb but is there a percentage at which the bet is being increased at

If need to more profit. Most of the people use the gambling. But before star the gambling you know the all process. It any time to get more profit. So check the gambling people then use the Bitcoin. If you have a bankroll of 1 btc, try this 70% start with 1000k sats, bet only one way, 10x after 4 losses. It will take time but it will work. Just try. But check the process and rules is important for this process. It change your life.

I do not quite underatand about your betting strategy, may be you can try to explain it more here since everyone may be need this

It will take time but it will work. Just try. But check the process and rules is important for this process. It change your life.

Are you claiming to have a winning system? How much has it won for you so far? Why don't you automate the process and win all the Bitcoins?

I do not think that it is a winning system or any good strategy because every strategy is just based on your luck when you do it. Last time, me and my friend trying the same strategy at the same time but the result that we both get is not the same. On the same time we stop I lose it and my friend got some amount and after he continued for just a little while then he face huge losing streak