1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM

[elux]

A few points of interest:

The largest Bitcoin address in existence is: 1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM

This is not a very typical high balance bitcoin address, for several reasons.

For example:

- It's new money, not old coin.
- Has been accumulating wealth somewhat steadily since late 2011 early 2012.
- The balance is not a nice round figure.
- Perhaps most importantly, it's alive!

Now, interestingly:

- On July 17 this address had a balance of 517825 BTC.
- On July 17 Bitcoin looked on the verge of breaking 10 USD/BTC on Mt.Gox.
- On July 17 two large withdrawals of respectively 20000BTC and 60000BTC were made from this address.
- On July 17 someone sold tens of thousands of bitcoins at market price (instantaneously) in several batches.

Opening questions:

- Are the several large dumps that occurred on July 17 consistent with the 80k BTC withdrawn from 1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM on that day?
- Is the time of the withdrawal roughly consistent with withdrawal -> transfer to and confirmation by Mt.Gox -> dump?
- Could 1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM responsible for the dumps of July 17?


Later that day: An (unauthenticated?) user going by the nick pirateat40 spoke on Freenode's #bitcoin IRC channel:

<pirateat40> this is the first time ive ever played the market. It was simply a statement, I don't plan on making it part of my process. It's simply a warning.

<proudhon> pirateat40, could you stop another "rally" if one were to ignite right now and buy up above $10?
<pirateat40> proudhon, i could take [you] to 1.80 if i needed to.

<pirateat40> well guys, i think i've scared off the sellers. I'm tired and going to call it night and let the bots play. IRCFrEAK, im pulling the my wall and dumping.... Get ready!

Added: More about that fascinating story here.

<pirateat40> #btcst comments and price movements on July 17. 2012:



(Image credit: Unknown. Please link me to whoever made this originally.)


Further questions:

- Would 80K BTC be sufficient to depress the price to 1.8 USD / BTC on July 17?
- Would 517K BTC be sufficient to depress the price to 1.8 USD / BTC on July 17?
- Does your trading strategy change if 120k BTC is withdrawn from 1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM tomorrow?
- ...
- ...

Anyone want to show of their impressive "bitcoin forensics" skills? Has anyone else pondered these matters?


Added September 10. 2012:

1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM came with BTCST, disappeared along with BTCST.

I assume this is (one of?) Pirate's wallets, and the main "Savings" part of BTCST.

I anticipated ~500K to be the balance of BTCST based on the premise that 1DkyBEK belongs to pirate before pirate himself claimed BTCST to be around 500K.

I predict you'll start noticing 1DkyBEK behaving quite differently after Aug. 17 than it has in the preceeding months up to Pirate closing shop.

The movements of July 17 were at the time unprecedented and would be an outlier, but have also been claimed by pirate himself.

If 1DkyBEK grows at a similar pace in the upcoming months, or eclipses the height of its former glory, my main premise will be proven wrong.

In a few weeks or months, not days, we can make a judgement. I think it's Pirate, if I'm wrong, we'll be able to tell soon enough.

Final Balance: 0.17055187 BTC

Live balance chart on blockchain.info: https://blockchain.info/charts/balance?address=1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM

Show's over. Thanks for watching. Special thanks to bitcoin forensics crack znort987 for his analysis.

[ElectricMucus]

Doesn't really concern me though I would make a few staggered, low buy orders if I get wind of it in time.
However that could be used for manipulation to, so whoever owns that coins could simply move them in order to spark people into making buy orders/ canceling high buy orders/ moving them lower/etc.

What I think is more important, or even somewhat problematic is:
That balance consists of 2.13254768% of all the bitcoins ever to exist. That is significantly above max that the consensus considers that no close-knit group or individual should own over 1% of the total wealth of an economy.

[ineededausername]

I just want to note that the inputs to most of the transactions coming into that address are of roughly equal size.  One transaction I saw was this: https://blockchain.info/tx-index/2400953/5092db43aaf839c01c982fa3ac170b74f7c72b92028af0ed23de99e21779781c

As you can see, all the inputs are around 30 BTC.

This may help in determining the nature of this address.

[Technomage]

What I think is more important, or even somewhat problematic is:
That balance consists of 2.13254768% of all the bitcoins ever to exist. That is significantly above max that the consensus considers that no close-knit group or individual should own over 1% of the total wealth of an economy.

That is problematic but it is also to be expected. There are plenty of high net worth individuals that could, if they so decided, buy a hell of a lot of bitcoins and thus own a good percentage of the entire money supply.

I wouldn't worry about it too much though. It will get distributed eventually because it's unlikely that they will hold it forever. They will sell at some point. If not, then who cares? Then all other coins have more value which is good for us.

The problem is the potential consequences if someone decides to hold a massive amount and then some day just crashes the market with it. It could shake confidence in the currency. It would be a one time event, but it would shake the whole Bitcoin economy. I hope that doesn't happen.

[proudhon]

- Would 80K BTC be sufficient to depress the price to 1.8 USD / BTC on July 17?

No.  IIRC, at the time it would have taken around 200k BTCs to drop the price below $2.00.

[elux]

- Would 80K BTC be sufficient to depress the price to 1.8 USD / BTC on July 17?

No.  IIRC, at the time it would have taken around 200k BTCs to drop the price below $2.00.

Boom! That's one hypothesis down. Thanks.

Can you help eliminate more, or propose better ones?
For instance, the (at first glance) conspicuous timing, volume?

[Serge]

someone or a group bought around $2.5 million worth of petrocks! (without anyone noticing, good job!)

[Spekulatius]

Lol, how does THIS affect your trading strategy?

[myrkul]

Haha.... "Oh shit, they're on to me."

[GeniuSxBoY]

where did he move to 


is that Gox's account?

[Spekulatius]

where did he move to 


is that Gox's account?

probably strait to HIS Gox account to SELL EVERYTHING IN AN ALL DEVOURING HELLFIRE TO BREAK HAVOC OVER BITCOIN AND TO KILL EVERY SINGLE ONE OF US!!!!

MUHAHAHAHAHARRHAHAHARR HARARAHARARAHHAHAHAHAARARAHARARARARRAAAAAARRRRRRMUHAHAHAHAHARRHAHAHARR HARARAHARARAHHAHAHAHAARARAHARARARARRAAAAAARRRRRRMUHAHAHAHAHARRHAHAHARR HARARAHARARAHHAHAHAHAARARAHARARARARRAAAAAARRRRRRMUHAHAHAHAHARRHAHAHARR HARARAHARARAHHAHAHAHAARARAHARARARARRAAAAAARRRRRRMUHAHAHAHAHARRHAHAHARR HARARAHARARAHHAHAHAHAARARAHARARARARRAAAAAARRRRRRMUHAHAHAHAHARRHAHAHARR HARARAHARARAHHAHAHAHAARARAHARARARARRAAAAAARRRRRRMUHAHAHAHAHARRHAHAHARR HARARAHARARAHHAHAHAHAARARAHARARARARRAAAAAARRRRRRMUHAHAHAHAHARRHAHAHARR HARARAHARARAHHAHAHAHAARARAHARARARARRAAAAAARRRRRRMUHAHAHAHAHARRHAHAHARR HARARAHARARAHHAHAHAHAARARAHARARARARRAAAAAARRRRRRMUHAHAHAHAHARRHAHAHARR HARARAHARARAHHAHAHAHAARARAHARARARARRAAAAAARRRRRR............<cough> <cough> <cough> <cough> ...

[Spekulatius]

Can someone determin where he sent his BTC to?? Im somehow unable to find out. Last transaction it shows me on
https://blockchain.info/address/1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM
was on the 20th of July. But if the OP screenshot was taken at time of post this cannot be.

[Spekulatius]

I just had the funniest idea:



What if pirate wants to cash out his 517k BTC all at once? Thus bringing the price down as far as the 236,707 BTC BID wall at 1.15 USD and buy it all up on the fly?
This way, he would make an immediately 1.014M USD at an average price of 3.38 USD/BTC that he could withdraw from MtGox within 2 weeks as trusted customer AND still keep some leverage with the 236,707 BTC for later actions. To pull the trigger only 11k BTC in the order book stand between him and the disaster beyond all expectations.
The price is crashing, bidding orders in the book dwindle and Las Vegas draws near. Coincidence?

[Bjork]

I thought we determined that this was the silk road escrow wallet

[Spekulatius]

where? link?

[nomnomnom]

Very interesting!
I plugged the address into google and look what I found:

http://whois.domaintools.com/1dkybekt5s2gdtv7aqw6rqepavnsryhoym.com
it has its own .com domain lol wtf 

[Serge]

I thought we determined that this was the silk road escrow wallet

escrow != savings account

are you inclining that there are over 500k BTC of active trades going waiting for confirms? really?!
if it was indeed escrow there would be almost equal amount of incoming and outgoing amounts/transactions except those waiting to be confirmed

[Serge]

Very interesting!
I plugged the address into google and look what I found:

http://whois.domaintools.com/1dkybekt5s2gdtv7aqw6rqepavnsryhoym.com
it has its own .com domain lol wtf 

lolz http://1dkybekt5s2gdtv7aqw6rqepavnsryhoym.com/

[Spekulatius]

Very interesting!
I plugged the address into google and look what I found:

http://whois.domaintools.com/1dkybekt5s2gdtv7aqw6rqepavnsryhoym.com
it has its own .com domain lol wtf 

lolz http://1dkybekt5s2gdtv7aqw6rqepavnsryhoym.com/

I lol'd

[ArticMine]

where did he move to 


is that Gox's account?

probably strait to HIS Gox account to SELL EVERYTHING IN AN ALL DEVOURING HELLFIRE TO BREAK HAVOC OVER BITCOIN AND TO KILL EVERY SINGLE ONE OF US!!!!

MUHAHAHAHAHARRHAHAHARR HARARAHARARAHHAHAHAHAARARAHARARARARRAAAAAARRRRRRMUHAHAHAHAHARRHAHAHARR HARARAHARARAHHAHAHAHAARARAHARARARARRAAAAAARRRRRRMUHAHAHAHAHARRHAHAHARR HARARAHARARAHHAHAHAHAARARAHARARARARRAAAAAARRRRRRMUHAHAHAHAHARRHAHAHARR HARARAHARARAHHAHAHAHAARARAHARARARARRAAAAAARRRRRRMUHAHAHAHAHARRHAHAHARR HARARAHARARAHHAHAHAHAARARAHARARARARRAAAAAARRRRRRMUHAHAHAHAHARRHAHAHARR HARARAHARARAHHAHAHAHAARARAHARARARARRAAAAAARRRRRRMUHAHAHAHAHARRHAHAHARR HARARAHARARAHHAHAHAHAARARAHARARARARRAAAAAARRRRRRMUHAHAHAHAHARRHAHAHARR HARARAHARARAHHAHAHAHAARARAHARARARARRAAAAAARRRRRRMUHAHAHAHAHARRHAHAHARR HARARAHARARAHHAHAHAHAARARAHARARARARRAAAAAARRRRRRMUHAHAHAHAHARRHAHAHARR HARARAHARARAHHAHAHAHAARARAHARARARARRAAAAAARRRRRR............<cough> <cough> <cough> <cough> ...

If this were pirate and he were crazy enough to pull of this stunt, it would provide a perfect opportunity for long term investors to average down and then sit back and watch the short squeeze unfold. I would very much look forward to this scenario.