ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[philipma1957]

I  just read the BFL for ASICMINER two pages ago and I would like to add my take on this. I got myself a BFL single 60GH for 18.2BTC with some of my ASICMINER "dividends" instead of buying more shares (of course I did with most of the rest of the divs!).

The idea was, as a miner, it doesn't matter how profitable ASICMINER as a whole it is just how much hashing power it provides per share. The extra point here is ASICMINER is increasing mining power per share, and doing it easier, faster and cheaper than other companies do. Plus the hardware sells of course.

Now as a diversification attempt I got myself 18.2BTC/60GHps=3.296703297GHps per BTC, It was a gamble on the future that BFL would not be "that" late that 1 share of asicminer would reach 3.296703297*2.4=7.912087912 GHps before the mining device arrive and I start hashing with it, of course I accounted for the divs happening in that time.

If this gamble were in my favor it would be more profitable that I got that miner instead of buying "more" asicminer shares with those 18.2BTC.

This is what I did. Please tell me where I am fundamentally flawed and I deserve to be "deeply fried" <-(got the reference )

flaw is, once you've got 60GH, it's fixed at 3.29x GH / BTC, but AM hash / BTC will keep rising till the end of the world

Flaw is bfl has yet to prove they can build a working single no less ship it quickly.

 As for jalapenos BFL is now up to JULY 20 of 2012. Yesterday they shipped up to July 3rd of 2012.  That is 14 days of back orders in 1 day. At this pace BFL will be caught  up to June of this year in about 25 to 30 days.  

 I ask again when BFL is selling a 5GH machine for 2.5 BTC  with a 1 week wait what is AM's counter plan. As of today AM's  blade is 30BTC for 10GH.  AM's usb stick is  60BTC for 10Gh

LINK to current Jalley status

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/content/136-wednesday-6-5-2012.html    


   I am not a BFL fan AM has been a better company so far and as I said they made some coins for me. BFL has held money for me so far.

I am asking for AM to make a hardware move . Or an announcement.  I will post BFL jally updates each day.  Obviously this may be a desperate attempt by BFL to get new orders and they may only be able to build  1000 Jallys and stall. I get that. Still needs to be monitored daily as jallys are moving out to customers.

[romerun]

no doubt, BFL is no go, Avalon is shady, at this point Bitfury and Kncminer are the only threat to AM wealth.

[michaelGedi]

I  just read the BFL for ASICMINER two pages ago and I would like to add my take on this. I got myself a BFL single 60GH for 18.2BTC with some of my ASICMINER "dividends" instead of buying more shares (of course I did with most of the rest of the divs!).

The idea was, as a miner, it doesn't matter how profitable ASICMINER as a whole it is just how much hashing power it provides per share. The extra point here is ASICMINER is increasing mining power per share, and doing it easier, faster and cheaper than other companies do. Plus the hardware sells of course.

Now as a diversification attempt I got myself 18.2BTC/60GHps=3.296703297GHps per BTC, It was a gamble on the future that BFL would not be "that" late that 1 share of asicminer would reach 3.296703297*2.4=7.912087912 GHps before the mining device arrive and I start hashing with it, of course I accounted for the divs happening in that time.

If this gamble were in my favor it would be more profitable that I got that miner instead of buying "more" asicminer shares with those 18.2BTC.

This is what I did. Please tell me where I am fundamentally flawed and I deserve to be "deeply fried" <-(got the reference )

flaw is, once you've got 60GH, it's fixed at 3.29x GH / BTC, but AM hash / BTC will keep rising till the end of the world

Flaw is bfl has yet to prove they can build a working single no less ship it quickly.

 As for jalapenos BFL is now up to JULY 20 of 2012. Yesterday they shipped up to July 3rd of 2012.  That is 14 days of back orders in 1 day. At this pace BFL will be caught  up to June of this year in about 25 to 30 days.  

 I ask again when BFL is selling a 5GH machine for 2.5 BTC  with a 1 week wait what is AM's counter plan. As of today AM's  blade is 30BTC for 10GH.  AM's usb stick is  60BTC for 10Gh

LINK to current Jalley status

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/content/136-wednesday-6-5-2012.html    


   I am not a BFL fan AM has been a better company so far and as I said they made some coins for me. BFL has held money for me so far.

I am asking for AM to make a hardware move . Or an announcement.  I will post BFL jally updates each day.  Obviously this may be a desperate attempt by BFL to get new orders and they may only be able to build  1000 Jallys and stall. I get that. Still needs to be monitored daily as jallys are moving out to customers.

you're asking in the wrong place, none of us know the answer... but thanks for bringing it up.

Send franktank a PM in order to get this question added to the FAQ that he/TAT etc will be sending to friedcat

[miTgiB]

what if you live dividend to dividend and a delay in confirmations means no funds for rent.

You should adjust your life to cope with this.  Living paycheck to paycheck with no emergency fund is not very sound.  You could have sold a share or two if this was really such a problem.

[kibblesnbits]

what if you live dividend to dividend and a delay in confirmations means no funds for rent.

You should adjust your life to cope with this.  Living paycheck to paycheck with no emergency fund is not very sound.  You could have sold a share or two if this was really such a problem.

Enough with the fodder. 

[friedcat]

Update

The wafer of the first half (100TH/s) of next batch is to be out of fab.
More than 4,000 USB devices are sold out in total.
The demand of blades are surprisingly long-lasting and still high.

With respect to the mining business, we have never seen it as a drying up one
in spite of persistent block halving. If Bitcoin ever rises as a successful currency
in a few years, and the transaction fee has to be, say, 15BTC each block on average,
to prevent attacks from organizations that are all over the world and begin show
up when Bitcoin flourishes, what we could expect is 27.5BTC per block after the
next block halving, and more than 15BTC forever in the further future.

The shares "missing" are those missing from the original GLBSE database when we got
them. Some people had failed to report their Bitcoin address. Among them, several ones
successfully redeemed their shares after we mailed them for the address info. But the
rest failed to mail back.

The delay of confirmation of this week's dividends is caused by the payments of real
dividends are chained after the satoshi transactions, which are now refused by most
of the clients. We will either stop the satoshi payments, or unchain the payment in our
modified scripts.

[Franktank]

Update

The wafer of the first half (100TH/s) of next batch is to be out of fab.
More than 4,000 USB devices are sold out in total.
The demand of blades are surprisingly long-lasting and still high.

With respect to the mining business, we have never seen it as a drying up one
in spite of persistent block halving. If Bitcoin ever rises as a successful currency
in a few years, and the transaction fee has to be, say, 15BTC each block on average,
to prevent attacks from organizations that are all over the world and begin show
up when Bitcoin flourishes, what we could expect is 27.5BTC per block after the
next block halving, and more than 15BTC forever in the further future.

The shares "missing" are those missing from the original GLBSE database when we got
them. Some people had failed to report their Bitcoin address. Among them, several ones
successfully redeemed their shares after we mailed them for the address info. But the
rest failed to mail back.

The delay of confirmation of this week's dividends is caused by the payments of real
dividends are chained after the satoshi transactions, which are now refused by most
of the clients. We will either stop the satoshi payments, or unchain the payment in our
modified scripts.

Thanks! Always a pleasure to see your updates! Again, thanks for all your hard work and keep it up!

[neilol]

Thanks for the update fried!

Good news

[JSMill]

We are so lucky to have such a smart team running this company.  Thanks for the update!

[tinus42]

Strange. I thought Friedcat's update would generate a lot of reactions but instead it has been rather quiet in this thread.

Thank you for the update Your Friedness!

Looking forward to next week's divs. 

[wtfvanity]

The delay of confirmation of this week's dividends is caused by the payments of real
dividends are chained after the satoshi transactions, which are now refused by most
of the clients. We will either stop the satoshi payments, or unchain the payment in our
modified scripts.

Does anyone care if this happens? Just send the div's!

[boyohi]

Strange. I thought Friedcat's update would generate a lot of reactions but instead it has been rather quiet in this thread.

Thank you for the update Your Friedness!

Looking forward to next week's divs. 

Maybe everyone is still at work.

[romerun]

no doubt, BFL is no go, Avalon is shady, at this point Bitfury and Kncminer are the only threat to AM wealth.

Dangerous assumption, for all we know Intel could launch a 10x more efficient chip tomorrow and Nvidia announce a competing product Monday morning. Screw marketing, numbers talk here and AM could get drowned out overnight if one of the big firms wants a piece of the pie but AM have experience, a head start and a rock solid reputation so my moneys on them for the long run.

EDIT: Thanks for the update

not until walmart start accepting btc

[sngwinner]

This may be bitcoin 101 that I just missed but it would be great if someone could flush out some justification to what Friedcst said about transaction fees becoming a bigger part of the reward for mining a block. Why is it that this will happen? 15 btc per block seems like a lot in fees. What sort of fee per transaction would that equate to?

[Fabrizio89]

This may be bitcoin 101 that I just missed but it would be great if someone could flush out some justification to what Friedcst said about transaction fees becoming a bigger part of the reward for mining a block. Why is it that this will happen? 15 btc per block seems like a lot in fees. What sort of fee per transaction would that equate to?

I'm wondering about this too. With BTC being widely adopted, its value would have to increase to support a dramatic boost in demand and usage. If that's the case, transaction fees will be lowered as its value goes up.

[canth]

This may be bitcoin 101 that I just missed but it would be great if someone could flush out some justification to what Friedcst said about transaction fees becoming a bigger part of the reward for mining a block. Why is it that this will happen? 15 btc per block seems like a lot in fees. What sort of fee per transaction would that equate to?

We're doing a lot of extrapolation here since the number of BTC issued per block isn't set to halve again until ~ 2017. At today's transaction amounts - aka 50K transactions per day or about 350 transactions per block this would be about .04 BTC per transaction. However, we have to presume that the number of BTC transactions will significantly increase as BTC gains more popularity. Anyone want to take a guess about how many transactions per block in 2-3 years?

[sngwinner]

This may be bitcoin 101 that I just missed but it would be great if someone could flush out some justification to what Friedcst said about transaction fees becoming a bigger part of the reward for mining a block. Why is it that this will happen? 15 btc per block seems like a lot in fees. What sort of fee per transaction would that equate to?

We're doing a lot of extrapolation here since the number of BTC issued per block isn't set to halve again until ~ 2017. At today's transaction amounts - aka 50K transactions per day or about 350 transactions per block this would be about .04 BTC per transaction. However, we have to presume that the number of BTC transactions will significantly increase as BTC gains more popularity. Anyone want to take a guess about how many transactions per block in 2-3 years?

Do we have any idea what portion if transaction fees AM is currently collecting on each block in addition to the created btc?

A related question is how is btc designed to continue after all block have been solved? I know this is decades away but I'm curious if this isn't a problem to worry about or if this is something that will be solved eventually.

I guess I'm thinking that since the amount of rewarded btc for every block halves eventually the reward for solving a block wil be .00001 btc and miner will continue because they will be paid a transaction fee. If that's the case then eventually the transaction fees might be a decent percentage of a regular transaction. Seems a little worrisome in the long term to a currency that has a major advantage because of low transaction fees.

[kokojie]

no doubt, BFL is no go, Avalon is shady, at this point Bitfury and Kncminer are the only threat to AM wealth.

Dangerous assumption, for all we know Intel could launch a 10x more efficient chip tomorrow and Nvidia announce a competing product Monday morning. Screw marketing, numbers talk here and AM could get drowned out overnight if one of the big firms wants a piece of the pie but AM have experience, a head start and a rock solid reputation so my moneys on them for the long run.

EDIT: Thanks for the update

Not possible until Bitcoin market share is least 1 Trillion. Intel alone has 100X market cap of bitcoin, the potential market is simply too tiny for these companies to produce anything for.

[canth]

no doubt, BFL is no go, Avalon is shady, at this point Bitfury and Kncminer are the only threat to AM wealth.

Dangerous assumption, for all we know Intel could launch a 10x more efficient chip tomorrow and Nvidia announce a competing product Monday morning. Screw marketing, numbers talk here and AM could get drowned out overnight if one of the big firms wants a piece of the pie but AM have experience, a head start and a rock solid reputation so my moneys on them for the long run.

EDIT: Thanks for the update

Not possible until Bitcoin market share is least 1 Trillion. Intel alone has 100X market cap of bitcoin, the potential market is simply too tiny for these companies to produce anything for.

Yep - it's just not that interesting of a market for Intel. Besides, right now their focus is on mobile phones, tablets and the like. If laptops and PCs end up being trounced by tablets and phones, then Qualcomm, nVidia and others will end up being much more problematic for Intel. "Missing out" on the relatively small crypto currency mining market will be the least of their problems. Face it, this is still a niche market with perhaps only hundreds of thousands of customers compared to cell phones, tablets with over 1bn customers.

[nubbins]

15 btc per block seems like a lot in fees. What sort of fee per transaction would that equate to?

At today's transaction amounts - aka 50K transactions per day or about 350 transactions per block this would be about .04 BTC per transaction. However, we have to presume that the number of BTC transactions will significantly increase as BTC gains more popularity. Anyone want to take a guess about how many transactions per block in 2-3 years?

21 million transactions a day, with a BTC0.0001 fee, would give you around BTC15 in fees per block.

BTC0.0005 fee, you'd need 4.2 million tx's per day

etc