canth
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June 12, 2013, 10:40:09 PM |
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Invalid Thread specified...
Just me? If so, could someone quote it//message it to me? Thanks Seems to be deleted. A few minutes ago I could see it, whithout any pictures. I tried to follow the pictures and get the invalid error message. Back to the text Iknow also,see only invalid message ... I saw the thread as well. Since it was the first unit shipping, it had a special serial number - 1337. Looks like BFL doesn't consider this an official release - maybe they don't want to get the hopes up for others with single orders or worse, the mini-rigs.
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runeks
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June 12, 2013, 10:43:25 PM |
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Congratulations to all shareholders on today's dividend! I really didn't think it was going to be that high again. Our mining earnings chart shows that ASICMiner, despite the 28% difficulty increase that occurred on June 5th, has continued to exceed past week's earnings in mining: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FTs407AG.png&t=665&c=LbEH1eLexuhiDg) It occurred right before the previous payout, so they have had to increase their hashing power by 28% over night, to keep up with past week's earnings. Amazing! I really get the feeling that ASICMiner really has this planned out much more than many people had expected (including myself!).
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tinus42
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June 12, 2013, 10:58:38 PM |
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Invalid Thread specified...
Just me? If so, could someone quote it//message it to me? Thanks Maybe they didnt like me sharing the link?! It amazes me that there are still people who believe even one iota of what BFL states. ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif)
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freedomno1
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June 12, 2013, 11:27:02 PM |
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Invalid Thread specified...
Just me? If so, could someone quote it//message it to me? Thanks Maybe they didnt like me sharing the link?! It amazes me that there are still people who believe even one iota of what BFL states. ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif) Well if it finally ships we would have a competitor sort of depends on how fast they can clear their backlogs
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Believing in Bitcoins and it's ability to change the world
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radiumsoup
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June 12, 2013, 11:44:54 PM |
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Amazing! I really get the feeling that ASICMiner really has this planned out much more than many people had expected (including myself!).
My personal opinion is that they spend time racking and networking devices that are powered down but ready to go, and that they keep an eye on hashrate/difficulty closely enough that they simply provide power to the cold devices when a boost is necessary to maintain their "dominant but not too powerful" position. I have no evidence for this other than a gut feeling based on observation of the hash rates and competition, but I'm pretty sure reality is something very close to this description. I wonder if they have at least 50% spare hashpower ready at any given moment, but that's just me daydreaming. In a word: Juggernaut.
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PGP fingerprint: 0x85beeabd110803b93d408b502d39b8875b282f86
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TsuyokuNaritai
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June 12, 2013, 11:58:46 PM |
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Or they're holding back to avoid a juggernaut hashrate which would harm hardware sales.
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helixone
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June 13, 2013, 12:01:18 AM |
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Amazing! I really get the feeling that ASICMiner really has this planned out much more than many people had expected (including myself!).
My personal opinion is that they spend time racking and networking devices that are powered down but ready to go, and that they keep an eye on hashrate/difficulty closely enough that they simply provide power to the cold devices when a boost is necessary to maintain their "dominant but not too powerful" position. I have no evidence for this other than a gut feeling based on observation of the hash rates and competition, but I'm pretty sure reality is something very close to this description. I wonder if they have at least 50% spare hashpower ready at any given moment, but that's just me daydreaming. In a word: Juggernaut. Mmm.. I don't know, I think they are building out things as fast as they can, and nothing is sitting idle, other than inventory allocated for delivery to hardware buyers. Bear in mind to keep up with difficulty gains in the network, they need to be racking and stacking 60+ blockerupters per day. They need to do this 7 days a week, while also building out all the space, networking switches, power, and cooling to support over 3100 blockerupters they currently have deployed. (They have proven their ability to deploy at a peak rate of ~60 blockeruptor boards a day.) Remember these numbers will only go as they try to maintain their share of an ever growing hashrate. Someone mentioned the law of large numbers earlier. I think an explanation might be in order. "The first is the law of large numbers. As a company gets bigger, each percentage of incremental revenue suddenly represents a fundamentally larger number. As the base grows, the amount of new business needed to make a material difference in earnings also rises, increasing the pressure on sales to find new markets, new categories, and new geographies. In other words, the larger a company becomes, the more the entire engine has to work harder." IE: It's going to become exceedingly harder and harder for AM to maintain their share of the network, and it seems at some point they might not be able to keep up. (When and if that happens only really FC could guess.) -helixone
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radiumsoup
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June 13, 2013, 12:17:56 AM |
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Mmm.. I don't know, I think they are building out things as fast as they can, and nothing is sitting idle, other than inventory allocated for delivery to hardware buyers. Bear in mind to keep up with difficulty gains in the network, they need to be racking and stacking 60+ blockerupters per day. They need to do this 7 days a week, while also building out all the space, networking switches, power, and cooling to support over 3100 blockerupters they currently have deployed. (They have proven their ability to deploy at a peak rate of ~60 blockeruptor boards a day.)
Remember these numbers will only go as they try to maintain their share of an ever growing hashrate. Someone mentioned the law of large numbers earlier. I think an explanation might be in order.
"The first is the law of large numbers. As a company gets bigger, each percentage of incremental revenue suddenly represents a fundamentally larger number. As the base grows, the amount of new business needed to make a material difference in earnings also rises, increasing the pressure on sales to find new markets, new categories, and new geographies. In other words, the larger a company becomes, the more the entire engine has to work harder."
IE: It's going to become exceedingly harder and harder for AM to maintain their share of the network, and it seems at some point they might not be able to keep up. (When and if that happens only really FC could guess.)
-helixone
I'm familiar with the concept, and I don't think that there is any conflict whatsoever (right now) between growing total hashrate and the ability to keep cold spares. Think about it: the delay of deployment due to learning how to deploy these quickly has already been flushed out. The estimated rate of 60 boards per day is an estimate of actual deployment, and can't be used as a "peak" value of actual hardware racking - nobody but Friedcat's team knows the actual rack rate. Add to that the knowledge that the percentage of the network has not only kept up, but has INCREASED at the same time, and we can extrapolate that the deployment of hardware has accelerated beyond the initial few weeks' rate. They're learning how to deploy faster, so there's no reason to put a limit on their deployment efforts just because we don't see the effect on the network hashrate. That's how I came up with my theory... mind you, it is just a theory, but I did take into account the idea that the deployment must accelerate beyond the growth of the network in order to maintain the current percentages. Of course, it won't stand up perpetually, but for now, deployment is accelerating beyond what's necessary. And that makes me think that there's no reason they can't assembly-line this into a cold standby situation. That's how I think I'd do it, anyway, in order to avoid growing hashrate too quickly while leveraging the workforce putting the hardware into place at peak efficiency. ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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PGP fingerprint: 0x85beeabd110803b93d408b502d39b8875b282f86
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freedomno1
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June 13, 2013, 12:24:35 AM |
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Efficient units that can be made faster incrementally that can be put to market immediately Are better than heavy R@D units that take years to get to market and cannot be used for a while
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Believing in Bitcoins and it's ability to change the world
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helixone
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June 13, 2013, 12:28:58 AM |
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Mmm.. I don't know, I think they are building out things as fast as they can, and nothing is sitting idle, other than inventory allocated for delivery to hardware buyers. Bear in mind to keep up with difficulty gains in the network, they need to be racking and stacking 60+ blockerupters per day. They need to do this 7 days a week, while also building out all the space, networking switches, power, and cooling to support over 3100 blockerupters they currently have deployed. (They have proven their ability to deploy at a peak rate of ~60 blockeruptor boards a day.)
Remember these numbers will only go as they try to maintain their share of an ever growing hashrate. Someone mentioned the law of large numbers earlier. I think an explanation might be in order.
"The first is the law of large numbers. As a company gets bigger, each percentage of incremental revenue suddenly represents a fundamentally larger number. As the base grows, the amount of new business needed to make a material difference in earnings also rises, increasing the pressure on sales to find new markets, new categories, and new geographies. In other words, the larger a company becomes, the more the entire engine has to work harder."
IE: It's going to become exceedingly harder and harder for AM to maintain their share of the network, and it seems at some point they might not be able to keep up. (When and if that happens only really FC could guess.)
-helixone
I'm familiar with the concept, and I don't think that there is any conflict whatsoever (right now) between growing total hashrate and the ability to keep cold spares. Think about it: the delay of deployment due to learning how to deploy these quickly has already been flushed out. The estimated rate of 60 boards per day is an estimate of actual deployment, and can't be used as a "peak" value of actual hardware racking - nobody but Friedcat's team knows the actual rack rate. Add to that the knowledge that the percentage of the network has not only kept up, but has INCREASED at the same time, and we can extrapolate that the deployment of hardware has accelerated beyond the initial few weeks' rate. They're learning how to deploy faster, so there's no reason to put a limit on their deployment efforts just because we don't see the effect on the network hashrate. That's how I came up with my theory... mind you, it is just a theory, but I did take into account the idea that the deployment must accelerate beyond the growth of the network in order to maintain the current percentages. Of course, it won't stand up perpetually, but for now, deployment is accelerating beyond what's necessary. And that makes me think that there's no reason they can't assembly-line this into a cold standby situation. That's how I think I'd do it, anyway, in order to avoid growing hashrate too quickly while leveraging the workforce putting the hardware into place at peak efficiency. ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) Another thing to consider. FC has only ever stated an upward bound on deployment of 50% of network. To get there they would have to build and deploy 2000 of the blockeruptor boards overnight. I'm fairly confident that no matter how fast they can build and deploy these things that there is any risk of them doing so at this point in the game. The network has to many hashes. I stand my my theory that they are now deploying as fast as they can, and are no longer holding back. (Earlier on I would have agreed that what you were speculating might be a possibility.) When I said peak rate, I didn't mean they have hit a peak, and they can't go higher, I meant that they have proven the ability to deploy 60 boards a day over a 10 day difficulty period, and that is the fastest rate they have been deploying hardware to date. -helixone
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stripykitteh
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June 13, 2013, 01:11:15 AM |
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I'm trying to see this in its proper context. We know that BFL went from shipping 1 or 2 5GH/s miners to shipping them in quantity in about 2 months. It's reasonable to expect the same for these, if not a bit longer, due to the increased complexity of the device (more things can go wrong with 16 chips instead of 2 and a much bigger board). If AM is going to have competition I'm not too upset that these guys are part of it. I think that whatever BFL can throw out of the factory, AM will cope, based on past experience. I reckon if you ordered a big single today it would still be 4-5 months before you'd see it. It's up to AM to show again that they are the kings of bringing new hardware to market with the instant-style speed. 3. Please be aware that the payment processing and shipping will be less prioritized than the remaining orders in the third auction. It may be 1-2 days less timely before the third auction's shipping is completed. After that it will resume the instant-style speed.
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americandesi
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June 13, 2013, 01:47:03 AM |
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Quick question guys.. just curious.. how much was this week's dividend / share.?
Anyone.?
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ThickAsThieves
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June 13, 2013, 01:52:02 AM |
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I'm trying to see this in its proper context. We know that BFL went from shipping 1 or 2 5GH/s miners to shipping them in quantity in about 2 months. It's reasonable to expect the same for these, if not a bit longer, due to the increased complexity of the device (more things can go wrong with 16 chips instead of 2 and a much bigger board). If AM is going to have competition I'm not too upset that these guys are part of it. I think that whatever BFL can throw out of the factory, AM will cope, based on past experience. I reckon if you ordered a big single today it would still be 4-5 months before you'd see it. It's up to AM to show again that they are the kings of bringing new hardware to market with the instant-style speed. 3. Please be aware that the payment processing and shipping will be less prioritized than the remaining orders in the third auction. It may be 1-2 days less timely before the third auction's shipping is completed. After that it will resume the instant-style speed.
While I think you overestimate how slowly BFL will ship from here, I still believe AM won't have trouble staying a step ahead of them.
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tehelsper
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June 13, 2013, 01:53:38 AM |
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Invalid Thread specified...
Just me? If so, could someone quote it//message it to me? Thanks Seems to be back up: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/announcements/3214-first-single-sc-60gh-s-has-left-building.htmlJust in case it goes back down (I doubt it will though). The very first Single SC 60gh/s unit was shipped out on Tues 06/11/2013 during the 5 o'clock hour. I know this because I happened to visit BFL HQ on the right day. This is a momentous occasion for Butterfly Labs and the Bitcoin community as a whole. I will be posting a full write-up of my visit in the next couple hours. This write-up will contain a lot of information, some of which is unknown to the general public and other information will clarify a lot that has been left to speculation. There were maybe 8 Singles that had been built and tested while I was there, most of which did not have any problems getting into the 60gh range, even with un-binned chips, so no one should worry about getting a device with less than their ordered hashrate. Without further ado, here is some pics of the first Single being boxed up and shipped out to one very lucky customer.
This device is not packaged as future devices will be packaged. Future Singles will be shipped encased in foam to provide a higher level of protection.
This first Single was laser etched with a unique serial number by Josh directly. I watched this process which was amazing. I've never seen something lasered in person. I was amazed by the speed as the engraving only took about a second.
EDIT: Before any "Why only one?" posts start, these devices weren't fully burned in and some things are still being tested with BFGMiner for which they are using these devices.
Questions: Originally Posted by thay Still being burning and testing with bfgminer? I guess we will not see them in the wild until the end of next week or the week after. There is an aspect of BFGMiner being tested not the Singles. Edit: Added copy of article.
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yuchuanzhen
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June 13, 2013, 01:54:18 AM |
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Quick question guys.. just curious.. how much was this week's dividend / share.?
Anyone.?
0.03628311 BTC
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Tip:17YxKtDNYWjkhPYTKieh4xSGuyAfL4kJ5o
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freedomno1
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June 13, 2013, 02:15:58 AM |
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Invalid Thread specified...
Just me? If so, could someone quote it//message it to me? Thanks Seems to be back up: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/announcements/3214-first-single-sc-60gh-s-has-left-building.htmlJust in case it goes back down (I doubt it will though). The very first Single SC 60gh/s unit was shipped out on Tues 06/11/2013 during the 5 o'clock hour. I know this because I happened to visit BFL HQ on the right day. This is a momentous occasion for Butterfly Labs and the Bitcoin community as a whole. I will be posting a full write-up of my visit in the next couple hours. This write-up will contain a lot of information, some of which is unknown to the general public and other information will clarify a lot that has been left to speculation. There were maybe 8 Singles that had been built and tested while I was there, most of which did not have any problems getting into the 60gh range, even with un-binned chips, so no one should worry about getting a device with less than their ordered hashrate. Without further ado, here is some pics of the first Single being boxed up and shipped out to one very lucky customer.
This device is not packaged as future devices will be packaged. Future Singles will be shipped encased in foam to provide a higher level of protection.
This first Single was laser etched with a unique serial number by Josh directly. I watched this process which was amazing. I've never seen something lasered in person. I was amazed by the speed as the engraving only took about a second.
EDIT: Before any "Why only one?" posts start, these devices weren't fully burned in and some things are still being tested with BFGMiner for which they are using these devices.
Questions: Originally Posted by thay Still being burning and testing with bfgminer? I guess we will not see them in the wild until the end of next week or the week after. There is an aspect of BFGMiner being tested not the Singles. Edit: Added copy of article. A picture is worth a 1000 words and will last longer this time XD http://postimg.org/image/v3558fswj/119ab87f/There I took my dang screencap ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Quick question guys.. just curious.. how much was this week's dividend / share.?
Anyone.?
0.03628311 BTC Updated the FB feed ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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stripykitteh
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June 13, 2013, 02:27:09 AM |
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While I think you overestimate how slowly BFL will ship from here, I still believe AM won't have trouble staying a step ahead of them.
You are better informed than me so I bow to your superior knowledge, but I based it on the fact that BFL have continually been surprised by issues throughout. I don't think they can project anything very well beyond a few days. If they are saying now 2 months to clear the backlog I don't think a time loading of 100% is unreasonable, especially as the single is the most complex product they've tried to ship. Plus I see a lot of what they say in public as PR spin to keep existing punters happy and encourage new ones (not outright lies, just unguarded optimism). But I do agree that even if BFL *do* hit their targets AM will cope.
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ianp
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June 13, 2013, 02:29:00 AM |
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While I think you overestimate how slowly BFL will ship from here, I still believe AM won't have trouble staying a step ahead of them.
You are better informed than me so I bow to your superior knowledge, but I based it on the fact that BFL have continually been surprised by issues throughout. I don't think they can project anything very well beyond a few days. If they are saying now 2 months to clear the backlog I don't think a time loading of 100% is unreasonable, especially as the single is the most complex product they've tried to ship. Plus I see a lot of what they say in public as PR spin to keep existing punters happy and encourage new ones (not outright lies, just unguarded optimism). But I do agree that even if BFL *do* hit their targets AM will cope. Does anyone have an estimate as to how large (th/s) their backlog is?
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Eric Muyser
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June 13, 2013, 02:35:31 AM |
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Updated the FB feed ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Link?
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@EricMuyser | EricMuyser.com | OTC - "Defeat is a state of mind; no one is ever defeated until defeat has been accepted as a reality" - Bruce Lee
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