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Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

As always the case, the poorest countries are at the most disadvantageous position. Thickly populated countries whose population is highly dependent on daily wages or a no-work no-pay basis are going to feel the economic pain earlier and in a more severe degree. I don't want to name countries but we know which of them have such a situation. In those countries, health benefits are next to nothing. Moreover, if a lockdown is implemented, the daily wage earners, which doubtless comprise the huge majority of the population, may not be exposed to the danger of getting infected but will go hungry until god knows when.

I am coming from the Philippines and my country is certainly one in the category that I've mentioned. The primary concern of my country right now is that lockdown and community quarantines are hard to implement. The rich and the privileged don't have any problem with it; it is very easy for them to abide with the order. How about the poor? They don't scratch, there is nothing to peck. While I don't believe this pandemic will make my country bankrupt, it will definitely hurt the economy. And when the economy of a developing country is severely hit, the ordinary man will suffer the most.

I believe it might be from one of the countries in the European Union which already has problems BEFORE the pandemic because if slow economic-growth.

Italy will be the likely candidate, as it is one of the worst country that is being hit by the virus outside of China. Death toll already surpassed 2,500, and the demographics itself, country has the second-oldest population on earth. And obviously, the younger generation respect their elders in a Catholic country like Italy that's why the spread is unprecedented. And I think we can consider Italy now as ground zero, so it have slowed down their economy in the last month or so.

 

At first, China was but now Italy is that the most affected i feel the Italian government are going to be the foremost suffering from the worldwide epidemic of COVID-19. The price in Italy is on the increase and there's no place for dead bodies in hospitals. China has been ready to overcome its effects to some extent but Italy is more affected than China After Italy the effect is in Spain.

I think those modest countries will be the one who will be bankrupt first, even though China is the most affected country compared to other country because the virus came from that country, I don't think that they will be the first one that will be bankrupt because as we all know China is strong and rich country, there are so many population in China that makes them so powerful.

But I think if the virus will stay for so long, but I hope it will not, it will really affect the country of China because there are already a lot of citizen in that country who died. there are a lot of businesses who get failed, there are so much people who became unemployed because of the virus on their land.

Actually it is hard to say and predict on which country will br have a big negative effect of the coronavirus or the COVID 19 virus because we all know that we care about our brother countries so that it is hard but I guess the first one who will going to bankrupt are those country that has a very low economic growth way back then the virus has not started.

Obviously, it will be the third world country including China.

Every country is affected and based on the people that are being contaminated by this virus, I think it would be Italy though it is not a third world country. Other than Italy, obviously there is China that is the number one country affected by this pandemic. I also read this article you can also see other countries affected by this pandemic (https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/features/covid-19-coronavirus-top-ten-most-affected-countries/). Take care you guys.

China has a huge population and this is one factor to look at because you need also a huge resources to go about it, from taking care of the medical personnel that will treat affected patients to providing quarantine places and health materials. I think the amount of resources will be huge. Because China is largely an export country, many businesses have been shut Dow which means financial inflow has reduced. I see China being one of the biggest hit.

In my opinion, the most disadvantaged are China and the most benefited country is the United States, because, in reality, the value of the dollar is getting stronger. China is a great power country that wants to become a superpower country like the United States, unfortunately, China only wins in trade transactions or has a large reserve capital but loses in the military, integration of its power, currency, and hegemony.

The global supply chain is currently controlled by America, for example, an industry in India, they import goods from Thailand, Romania, Costa Rica and a few percents of products from Thailand require raw materials from China. With China shut down for several months due to the coronavirus, Thailand, Romania will fail to send to India by force majeure reasons. America is attacking China's supply and demand with Corona.

China counteracted this by making a foreign direct investment to many developing countries in the world through the OBOR program. China has a large reserve currency that is used as a proxy weapon for a dollar to enter China. The way the dollar enters China is by investing in exported products.

America has a surefire strategy so that Chinese investment in developing countries does not generate dollars, that is, how to get those Chinese partner countries to pay high taxes.

I am certain that it is China. They are the origin of the virus and a lot of people died in the country, They should also be blamed since instead of containing the people to avoid the pandemic, they did not do it. They are one of the biggest markets and had a lot of exports to other countries but with the lockdown, they can't export goods to other countries. Other countries are affected that are related to China's not able to trade or export goods like Japan.

I think the country that will suffer the most because of this pandemic virus is Italy. Although the virus originated from China and many people there were infected, they know how to handle this kind of situation. It is also stated that many people have already recovered from it and less people are now reported infected. As for Italy, it has now the largest number of infected people and many people already died from it. If the virus keeps on spreading, there will be many patients to be treated, and the recovery of them will take longer as well as the recovery of their economic status.

not to mention that italy's economy has already been on the edge for a while. this time last year, economists were already speculating about a greek-style financial crisis in italy (https://www.businessinsider.com/italy-perma-recession-systemic-crisis-threatens-eurozone-2019-4) and how it poses a threat to the entire euro zone.

speak of the devil. this just in from the new york times: A New Hurt in Italy From the Coronavirus: A Banking Crisis (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/business/italy-banks-coronavirus.html)

It's maybe the reason why Italy was late in implementing its national quarantine. The government knew that it would weaken their already weak economy, possibly defaulting. Because of not doing it early, they will suffer a worse economic crisis, AND a health crisis.

I'm gonna guess its the countries that are already on the verge of economic collapse, those which have unsustainable debt and whose economies are relatively fragile:

Country with debt/GDP ratio:

- Portugal 119.46%
- Italy 133.43%
- Greece 174.15%
- Spain 95.96%

Spain has actually been improving as of late, but these 4 countries have collectively been known as the PIGS for at least 10 years for having too much debt.

Italy by far, China is so crowded that you can literally kill a million people there and they would keep on being powerful, I am sure until 100 million it must be around the same but when it is death in a crowded one specific area that is both worse and better for economy, it is worse for that place and whatever that nation was getting from that area, but better because all else continues like nothing happened.

France, Spain, UK, USA all will be affected, they will probably have a horrible horrible 2 months ahead if we can't get a cure, however if they actually succeed something like that nobody will be too much affected because cure would help both infected and the economy. Yet when it comes to "most affected" it is obviously Italy, they are basically just staying inside until this passes, all business are closed.

Well we have different kinds of views and perceptions, I guess the if things gets to worst and all countries are lockdown, and no more trading of goods from other countries, then my opinion is the one whose country is self sustaining will be able to overcome such problem. If people starts to think that paper money is nothing and food is more important, then they would farm for survival and leave out everything else. This means lands which crops grows in all seasons will be able to survive right, and countries with harsh climates will have a hard time looking for food, if the pandemic will be on a large scale and will be longer, maybe for at least 2 years or more.

Let me have a close guess, Italy.
Before the pandemic, Italy has been suffering from economic crisis (I haven't read much about it).
Adds to the burden that hurt their economic status is the covid-19 that continuously devastating the country with the highest mortality rate right now, breaking the China's rate.
With the current lockdown in most part of the Italy, I don't think it will do any good to their economy.

Sadly enough, I would guess greece. Due to their cultural trend of tax evasion coupled with big government spending producing not much in tangible benefits for their society. They seem to have also been bailed out the most. The European Union would also appear ill prepared to cope with global pandemics due to their insistence on open borders. And prioritizing the needs of illegal immigrants above their own native demographics.

I can't remember whether the united states or european union carried a larger deficit in proportion to GDP. Its so difficult to find an accurate statistic for exactly how many trillions of euros the EU is in debt. I don't think anyone knows the answer.

I try to search about bankrupt country and the meaning is the country have big loan without have ability to pay, we can call it bankrupt. But in global economic world there's chance loan can be erase but of course depend in which organization they join, so there's no bankrupt country. All country have effect from Corona but the biggest is in China, they can struggle because have equipment and fund but will never survive if they fight alone.

Honestly, the first thing come to my mind is of course the first country affected which is China. But since we already heard on news that they are now recovering and near to go back to normal then I just get rid of the idea. Besides, they are one of the most superior country so I don't think this pandemic will be the cause of their fall down.

Anyway, no offense mate but you should now stop running those things on your mind right now. Much better if all of us will become optimistic during the time of crisis and adding prayers too. Instead of spreading bad vibes, let's focus more on the bright side please :).

Italy has the biggest government debt in the EU and Italy is the country with most infected people.The Italian economy simply isn't working.There are no tourists and no restaurants working.However,I don't think that Italy might go bankrupt.The European central bank will print billions of euro and buy Italian government bonds,in order to keep the country "above the water".All countries in the world will be damaged in one way or another.

 obviously those countries that are heavily affected by the virus and those countries are china  and italy   . so far those countries i remember that are suffering too much  but i also heard that china are recovering now and back to business but dont know bout italy maybe italy is also the next country that will recover on the virus   .  btw what is your goal for asking this question  , can we expect a reward with it ? because what i read its a guessing game   . i dont know but i think its not good to predict if what country are to bankrupt but we what more we need right now is a good news and positivity

My prediction is that no country will have to declare default as the result of the coronavirus, because all countries will manage to deal with this epidemic, even if some will have it way worse than the others. China says they are already past the peak of this epidemic, and while their economy took a hit they are nowhere near bankruptcy. I think even Italy will manage.

Perhaps it will be some small and poor African country or some other developing country, but those might be saved by IMF or other sources of international aid.

But if the pandemic lasts longer than thought, no defaults? Impossible.


Or some country in South America, if COVID-19 infects/kills their people very quickly in numbers like in Italy/Spain.

Indeed, no country will ever go bankrupt because of this virus spreading all through out the globe, why? Because we are not alone in this fight, i have already seen countries helping one another by donating equipments needed to fight the virus and by that no country will go zero. Yes, the effect will differs on each country as well as the damaged to their economics but it will be no neara country being bankrupt.

Okay , I do think it will be Italy .
They are abandoning their population .
Treatment is not being given to people after the age of 80.
It's even worse then China .
Italians are dancing around the world spreading the Virus .

Other than that I think it could be Ukraine too . .
Right now with only 26 cases but banks are already selling off stocks to maintain to currency .
Government is hiding a lot .
Citizens are not even contacting the doctors .
It will suddenly cause a big pop trust me .

The only solution to stop the spread of the virus is to shut down gatherings which includes shopping malls and other commercial places and during this phase manufacturing will be affected and that means the entire financial structure will be affected and we are not seeing any slowdown yet and the virus is spreading to many countries and in the next few months i am expecting a financial meltdown globally. Right now many countries are providing financial packages to aide the economy during this phase. 

The EU will suffer the most, simply due to their alleged "integrity, friendship and support". Each country will only act in its own interests to stabilize the situation as soon as possible
THE GAME HAS BEGUN

Developung countries are the one's who definitely most afffect in global pandemic of corona virus that a lot of business will go bankrupt, productions of foods will be stopped and a lot of people will starve to death, that is why a lot of countries are helping each other to avoid these problems.

Italy is just first that was hit hard after China. That dont mean that at the end of pandemic they will be hit most. Usually in pandemic is even better to be hit early since you can get some help from other countries. Right now there are many countries on same path as was China and Italy and will be way less help for those in need.

I guess Italy but it's already dead at some point hope they will still produce what they produced before

To the government of those countries where the most infected with the COVID-19 virus (China, Italy, Spain). Small and medium-sized businesses in these countries suffered greatly due to the virus and panic caused by it, which led to an increase in prices for literally everything that is possible. The true exception to all this is the pharmacy business. Owners are very pleased with the current state of affairs, selling masks and medicines at inflated prices.

Hoping for the quick recovery of Italy.

They have the highest death rate now and even higher than China. I've heard the news about Russia and US testing for antidote and hoping for the success of that test.

Regarding the situation for the moment and expecting a stabilisation of the situation after 4-6 weeks at least before the economy starts working again at +75% of what used to be, then if Italy and Spain managed to stabilise its economies then it will be a miracle. The collapse is happening right now, bankruptcy will not be so far if a lockdown will be maintained until summer!
Germany has a powerful economy, France has a good one too and can survive, Northern European countries are highly affected but can manage it too if they slower down the progression of the disease. Eastern European countries aren't that much affected for the moment which is lucky for them because if they have the same situation as Italy or Spain then not only its economy will collapse but the European Union will!

I always sad when I saw the word "dead" on this pandemic. I always hope it will totally rid of and get up at dawn.
As a recent news country of Italy announced 627 death overnight. I hope it will not spread more.

The Philippines (our country) is most likely the best country to nominate being bankrupt due to coronavirus. The Philippines is a small island with fewer medical facilities. The government declared an intense quarantine forcing all the people to stay at home. Since the businesses are small, they cannot afford to pay their workers without work.

Businesses were forced to stop their operations. Revenues are going down. They have a lack of funds. I'm afraid the country will be bankrupt because of the pandemic coronavirus.

We are all wishing to get rid of this pandemic as soon as possible.

I can't do anything at home but just to watch and wait until there's already the cure for the disease. I've heard the news lately that some countries are already doing it and hopefully, a positive feedback will be reported soon.

Well, the goal of a quarantine is actually to make the epidemic to last longer to spread the diseases cases over longer period of time, so that the hospitals always have enough capacity to threat people and as the result less people die. I think the current predictions say that this pandemic will last for a half a year or a year, but this doesn't mean that quarantine measures will last this long too. And economists say that this year will still have global economic growth, though it will be much smaller, something like 1.25%

Our local stock market are crashing and already lose a trillion of money, and as you said businesses are being stop and lot of workers stop also. Basically, the income in our country is stopped and lot of families are getting hungry considering that they have no money and the government are also losing money. Our country might bankrupt, it already borrow a 100M$ at world bank, but what's important in this crisis is human lives. I hope that this pandemic will gonna end soon, it's damaging a lot of country and we might suffer from economic crisis after this.

Isn't the goal of quarantines is to stop infections from spreading? I'm confused.


I believe 6 months of no/truly low economic productivity/output is enough to default countries with weak economies. Plus the damage of the pandemic.


The question was, guessing what country's government would default first. Italy? Iraq?

With diseases like the coronavirus you can't truly stop them, only slow them down, which is the goal right now.


Entertainment industry, tourism, etc. are taking a huge hit now, but people still go to work in many places, and office jobs allow their workers to work from home. It's not like the economy if fully stopped. And quarantine shouldn't last 6 months, the epidemic might, but the quarantine should be over when the epidemic will start slowing down.


And my answer was - no country will default. But if you want to make a good guess, I'd say it might be a country that already has weak economy and would be most affected by the anti-epidemic measures, so maybe it's some poor country that lives off tourism.

I don't know if it is related to the pandemic, a friend of mine told me that Lebanon did not pay a $1.2bn Eurobond payment, and has already defaulted on March 9, 2020.

for me this is no longer a matter of just one country but the whole world is also getting its effects.
I will not speculate with the hardships that have occurred in a country.
this virus has no antidote so it can continue to spread throughout the world.

No it is not related. Lebanon defaulted paying its debts due to the social/political movement that led the old government to dissolve, banks to close and/or limit withdrawal of workers money, limiting the use of other FIAT... The situation there is very complex without mentioning the repercussions of the Syrian war.
Corona pandemic is just adding flavor to the mixed sauce.

obviously, it is first including the country china. And European union country faces big problem mostly Italy. It is affected all over the world almost 150 countries cross the the great harmful problem corona virus.

Another question, would some of the other countries of the European Union start proposing their own "Brexits"? Which country will propose to leave next after the UK?

It's a guessing game, so I will choose Italy! They were in problems before this, for years they are on edge with their economy. They are pretty badly hit by virus, some news about them is that they can bury all the people who have died. If EU don't help with some huge financial assistance package they will be in huge problems.


Same answer, Italy! If they don't get financial, and all other kind of aid, they will probably leave EU. They are on the edge for years, this is the situation that can easily push them over that edge!

The Corona virus ncov-19 have been very destructive in the lives of many people around the globe  It has spread across borders that it had been considered already as a pandemic. Surely, it would greatly affect third world countries that doesn't have great technological and health facilities unlike rich countries to combat the virus especially, thos countries that have more people in poor areas such as squatters in which the rate of spreading of the virus would be high.

With no pre-emptive measures, third world countries are in a great danger.

The likely victim of economic crash would be the third world countries that have a lot of cases. The reason is that their countries are focusing on manpower which will be crippled by pandemic.

Cant tell about other countries...but in my country it has already shown a lot of effect withing few days....the share market has crashed as it has never been...and if this continues at this rate for some more time then danger times are coming

Haha. I believe the others will leave too, IF they see by being within the EU, will have no economic advantage after the pandemic. Their people need to eat, and their economy a bail out.

Italy and Spain are the most affected by the virus in Europe until now however Italexit or Spainexit will not happen imo for the moment unless an irreversible damage would happen or in case of surprising major rise of eurosceptic party inside one of them.
It is true that EU is not responding very well until now to help the most affected countries however it has many reserve money that will be mobilised to boost the economy whenever this epidemic situation will be resolved, and i don't think Italy nor Spain will take a risk to rebuild their damaged economy without the help of EU.

If the virus hits Africa, most of the African states will get in huge trouble. The same goes for South America, if you look at Venezuela. The rich industrial states in Europe, the US, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan and also China will overcome this pandemic. It will be pricy but those countries will stand it. For everyone else.. good luck.

In Africa the ones that risk dying are the old folks, those who have many diseases and the poor people. So asking their wealthy politicians to save few hundreds or few thousands of them isn't obvious unfortunately. For Venezuela, people are struggling to get some food and a normal health care in an ordinary day so the infection will not make the situation worse imo since it is already very bad..

Italy is by far the most affected for sure, I have seen pictures of "ghost town" type of situations where there was no one around and that kind of means economy stops. Economy is not something that can afford to stop or give a break, it has to continue forever to keep churning profits or as soon as it stops we are talking about a global crisis.

It means Italy is about to have something so huge that other nations will start to get affected because of it, France is next and then Spain will be following them, after that it is impossible to think Germany will be unaffected and of course UK ... as you can see it is going from one place to another and economy will be basically destroyed in general in all of Europe because of this. Hopefully it will be recovered but it will take a lot of time before we are back on regular days economically.

The poorest country of course. Countries with a bad economy, low standard of living and poor health sector. Such countries might able to contain the outbreak which might further damage the economy of such countries. Unfortunately, most of these countries are in Africa according to https://www.concernusa.org/story/worlds-poorest-countries/ (https://www.concernusa.org/story/worlds-poorest-countries/). Liberia which was hit by the ebola outbreak in 2014 has been regarded as the poorest country in the world.

Not Italy. I believe their down-playing of the pandemic will cost their falling economy more, than if they implemeted quarantines earlier.

woulda, coulda, shoulda. NYC is a disaster too, with something like 20% of all cases in the USA inside its metro area.

the burning question on a lot of peoples' minds is this: are cases being under reported in authoritarian countries like china and russia? their state run medias aren't known for accuracy and transparency. it's hard to tell if the pandemic growth is that much worse in western countries (italy, spain, soon to be USA) or if the problem is being brushed under the rug elsewhere. the chinese government is now planting the narrative that a recent uptick in infections is caused by "imported cases" from incoming travelers from abroad.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-toll/chinas-new-coronavirus-infections-double-due-to-imported-cases-idUSKBN21B01X

let's not forget the story of the spanish flu:


anyway, italy and spain are both in precarious economic positions but under the circumstances, i don't see them pushing for an EU exit and i also see significant EU assistance coming their way.

I will assume that there will be no defaults, but Italy will suffer the most, the situation is too bad there, people have not reacted properly to the threat for too long, and now they are paying for it. They pay a very high price that could have been avoided had the government been a little tougher.

I believe its going to be INDIA.

(Good God, apologies but practicality says it)

The thing is India is fighting against coronavirus with full power but in the meantime its loosing huge businesses and its economy bursting inside out.
India does't have enough funds in the Reserve Bank of India.

Banks are not allowed to take loan EMI's and other repayments from the customers for next three months or until next notice from the government. Thus, it will lead to loss of bank business as they will have huge set backs.

On the other hand, NSE and BSE are not recovering that effectively at which rate it shall be. Large number of employees have their money in these markets and which they will not getting back soon or will be selling in loss.

Most of the engineering companies have been shut and there is no salaries to employees.

India is also led by huge number of farmers and for them its getting difficult to sell their goods in far locations due to lockdown of transports etc.

Looking at such locked up situation im betting on India followed by Italy.

Italy is now became the new epicenter of the coronavirus where the infected persons in their country have now reached 63,000 and counting and they have the highest death toll in the world because of the virus where it now reached 6,000. There are now many effects to their economy because of the pandemic where their government have hard time to control. Even though they now implemented quarantine, the virus is still spreading that can still affect their economy.

This is only my speculation, if this virus outbreak goes on and on and throughout history a vaccine comes after 1 to 2 years of researching and testing then, it would be probably the US government as we know. They're doing massive money printing, forgivable loans, 0 interest rates. Plus the civilians doesn't follow their government guidelines to stay at home and do social distancing. I think their the first to fall and everything will follow like a domino effect.

This pandemic is like a thorn in the throat that we cannot call it a game just because it is painful, it is not a game of life and it's probably created by a selfish people with there's nothing to do except to destroy and eat nasty animals that leads a propagation of coronavirus, the most pitiful of these is the herald's countries which relies solely on weekly income.
Finally, the country of china reported that covid-19 disease has been continuing to decline, but it's hard to know that the tribulation of the Italian nation is much more infected compared to china

I believe people in most countries aren't following any guidelines. I am not talking about cults only, you can see French in parks, Americans in closed beaches...crowded bus/train...lines in front of every store... Even some Italians aren't following any rules!
It is all about having good health structures or not now.

yeah right other people are just cant understand simple instructions  . they only care about themselves but if we cant beat them then we must not join them ,  we that can understand simple instruction must stay home  .  that could be the reason that those people are now getting sick but its too late now for them to regret  .  @sadlife  , i heard there are now cure for the virus and i also dont think that the virus can last for over a year  because we are now seeing major progression  on most places  . people only need to cooperate for more faster recvoeries  . i just hope they will this time

I have never heard of any medicine or vaccine developed to cure the virus nobody can tell the precise details of how long it'll last because the days pass the prevalence continues to extend But to some extent everyone has got to follow instructions to regulate it. Everything has come to fruition and social mismanagement has led to the deterioration of business and therefore the economy.

From my observations of statistics, it seems that there has been a solstice in Italy and there has been no increase in the number of infected people or deaths for two days. The Italians got very scared and immediately took very quick action. Of course they did it late, but they did it well.
The situation is very different in Great Britain, where the government simply said that he did not care at all about the threat of coronavirus. Actions are beginning to be taken, but society does not care at all. In my opinion, the level of ignorance will reflect the level of consequences for the whole of Great Britain.
Brexit also can be very disastrous for Great Britain, because if the whole island will be infected and cut off from deliveries, no one will be able to help them. If, at all, it is possible to control the virus in the rest of Europe, then other countries will have their own problems and will have to rebuild a damaged economy. That is why I think that when it comes to Europe, Great Britain will certainly suffer the most.

As far as I know, Italy has a very worst situation in facing the Covid-19. I think they have the highest record of death rate in just a single day ( https://time.com/5807804/italy-coronavirus-deaths-rise/ ). It is so heart-breaking. Due to this I think their economy goes a very deep down. I am just hoping we in our country will not suffer the same thing. I also think it will be very hard for them to stand up again since up to now, number of patients recovered are small.

As I wrote in the previous post, statistics from the last days say that the situation in Italy has been under control. It is true that until now (except China) it was the country with the highest records of infection and deaths. However, other countries are catching up with these results very quickly. Just look at Spain, which is getting worse every day. Other European countries such as Switzerland, France and the Netherlands are also in a very difficult situation. Due to the huge number of citizens, the US may also be in a terrible situation. Unfortunately, but in many countries it is just beginning .. I think that the biggest problem may be in Great Britain due to taking action too late.
The most important thing at this point is to invent a cure, but no one seems to be even close to it.

The American stock market has lost a lot of value, and small enterprises have been injured, the rate of virus spread is very high in Latin countries such as Spain and Italy. The whole world is affected by this virus, but some countries will be more affected.

No shock that everyone would say Italy, there was absolutely nothing going on there anyway, they were never a powerhouse in the economy department, they were always in debt and they were basically a nation with full on vacation all the time. Think of all the things Italy sells to world, there are not all that many, at least nowhere near the huge nations, so they were left behind anyway.

Now with all of this, they will be doing even worse, there will be no recovery from this all that quickly, however this is literally why IMF exists and this is why EU exists. What will happen is Italy will be in big debt, big trouble, economy will be horrible. However they will get some loans from IMF, they will get some money from Europe as well, everyone will share and they will use that money to revitalize the economy.

I find it hard to guess that and to be honest, do not want to make a bad thing for a country and because with this pandemic at least every country has its sympathy to make many donations and that is a form of proof, if every country wants an economy that remains good when conditions are alarming because of this coronavirus. At the same time we know that China was the country with the most cases until finally Italy became the highest case, but even we can see that with the great effort that continues to be done in China there is at least a decrease in cases and hopefully it can be done in other countries as well.

I guess you can read about the Corona Pandemic from here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/countries-where-coronavirus-has-spread/
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/world-map.html

But I don't think that will make the country is going to bankrupt because I am sure that every government will try to cure the people before it infected more people while they still trying to manage their economy.

I believe not. I was told that India imposed/implemented the strictest lockdown, more than any other country in the world, China included.

We'll find out which country soon, wait two months.

same thoughts I think  economy was slightly alive just cause of tourism and now it stops

If we are thinking about the ones who will have the hardest fall then we can only have one candidate and that is the USA. Their stock market are the first ones to fall as early as the first week of February and the situation of the infection back then wasn't that worst compared to what we have now. They are directly hit because the U.S. companies they have also have big factories in China which have shut down because of the infection. Aside from that we can see that the pandemic is just worsening by the day in U.S. and everyday a lot of people are getting infected. I think the U.S. economy will be crippled because of this pandemic and it will depend on how quick they will recover now.

Imo, the poorest people are at the most disadvantageous position, and we can find such people in every country.

Regarding the economic impact of the pandemic on various countries' economies, every country will be (and already is) affected big-time. And if one country will suffer much more than others, the international community will help that country to cope with its problems.

The world, with the exception of a few countries, maybe, is no longer a place where some countries are gloating over the calamities in other countries. So, with the current level of reciprocity, on the governmental level, all economics will be affected equally, more or less.

Seems like your prediction is coming to reality now mate because Italy overtakes china now for the counts of dying per day and infected going high each day.

Though also US is suffering from the effect of the virus yet Italy now is asking for help worldwide.

Now we have a clue in which country will be the answer for this thread.

Actually it is not about the ages but the health of each victims,because nowadays even younger people dying from this pandemic,Here in our country a 35 years old Doctor died from Convid-19 and she has Diabetes.

This is far from this thought or conspiracy. Whose country's old was left behind ....
This is just an epidemic that is ravaging the globe at the moment. So many known diseases today started like this until cure was found. We expect that soon we are going to be free again in our society.

India is acting really early when compared to Italy, don't compare it to Italy and what you said about banks is true and it doesn't affect a lot for the well-operating banks as they have enough margin and the government will always be there to save the bank at any cost and all these lockdowns will not affect the farmers as it affects other industries since there is no restriction on the essential goods.

All these items agricultural products will fall under essential goods moreover the recent crude price fall will also help the ease of deficit and additional income to the government with increased tax to maintain the fuel prices at the same level which is expected around 36k crore they can spend in this time lets hope for the best.

I fervently hope that is exactly the case right now while some countries are desperately fighting against COVID-19 and its terrible economic impact more than the rest. Unfortunately, there are some sad indications that a few countries or even a community of countries are leaving others out in these dire times, just when they needed them the most.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/italy-conte-calls-for-eu-crisis-fund-as-coronavirus-death-toll-rises.html

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-eu-abandoning-italy-china-aid/

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-aims-better-control-coronavirus-responses/

I am not saying some countries are gloating over the calamities of others but facing a pandemic which is ever ready to hit all cities and towns of the world, some countries seem to suggest through their actions that in these trying times, to each his own. I hope I am very wrong on this.

This is a very complicated situation, to be honest. First it was China, then Italy, and now it's Spain.


^^ Look at the "New Cases" and "New Deaths" columns. Right now, it's hard to say what country is going to need more help.


Below is a quote from the same article:


As I said in my post above, reciprocity, it's working, one way or another.

I am sympathetic to the cry for help made by Italian Prime Minister, but we must understand that other governments should also care about their own citizens in this dangerous and unpredictable situation.

Some awkwardly people really thought of this conspiracy coz they have this deep imagination and does not bother what happens above the surface, it is too shallow for them to understand.


We've been dealt with many pandemics, and this is one of the weakest virus of them all it just so happen that we aren't prepared and surprised by its late discover and now we're running things unprecedentedly.
It's getting serious now with other country and Italy, China seems to be more active since they are the epicenter of the virus and now has a low rate of deaths and cases for about 2 days, So I hope it will continue until a cure is found.

Ofcourse, the countries that are most likely affected by the pandemic of corona virus or covid-19 are the ones who has a huge numbers of people who are infected and died in their population because maybe a lot of business man, politicians, or rich and popular have died due to the virus.

Now wait a minute, where is the MAGA hat?
USA gonna lead the world AGAIN. With new cases 6k-13k daily + huge number of active cases, THE HUGEST + fast growing number of deaths then the situation will be very very bad for them, even worst than Italy and Spain if things continue like that.
People in serious or critical conditions are +2k and knowing that the condition of any apparently healthy one can deteriorate rapidly then things are worse than expected.
/More serious/: USA gonna be the first in number for cases in less than 24h, followed by Italy then China. Total deaths is hard to estimate now since the propagation of the virus in USA is at an early stage, but once the number will pass 100k-200k with many in critical conditions then we will witness how an irresponsible and kiddish Potus has exterminated thousands of citizens!

USA will be affected in the short term as well, nobody talks about that but they are on an election year, which means that normally they have bunch of other topics to talk about yet here they are not talking about the elections.

This would only work for Donald Trump because he will not have to face their opponent as much as he would otherwise, plus there was a lot of talks about "blue no matter who" before all of this started but there is a rising number of Bernie voters (I would be if I was American) that decided not to vote for Biden as well and on top of that a lot of time allocated for the upcoming elections are now pure corona as well.

It means basically Trump will most likely win, and when he wins he will spend money and time to make sure companies get paid and that will be temporary solution which will be exactly like today in the future, so the whole nation will be screwed in short and long term.

the biden campaign has done a good job weaponizing the pandemic response against trump. i think biden is a hack and corporate shill, but this is a pretty good ad: https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1242967501442412544


my gut says you're right---trump will win. presidential approval ratings always rally during crises. trump is now getting his highest approval ratings ever, right as we enter the primary season home stretch. people also prefer red presidents during active threats.

it's crazy but we're probably gonna get 4 more years of trump out of this. :o

If there will be enough old pals and fat MAGA hat buddies after the coronavirus then yeah, i think so.
And BTW, as I told you folks, USA always grab number 1, even in the most contamination countries, but impressively in less than 6 hours! God bless the crippled economy

somebody forgot to tell the stock market. the USA hit record high unemployment numbers, and officially is the new "epicenter" of the coronavirus pandemic, yet the DOW is up 20% and running! the wall street journal has even declared the bear market over if you can believe it. https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1243267094852055041

to be fair, china probably has way more cases than the USA. it's pretty well accepted that china's propaganda apparatus can't be trusted. preliminary evidence suggests china is actively suppressing reporting of new cases. wechat, weibo, and other platforms are also actively censoring public discussion of the pandemic and medical supply shortages.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/3a8evk/china-says-it-has-no-new-coronavirus-cases-skeptics-say-thats-too-good-to-be-true
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/08/803766743/critics-say-china-has-suppressed-and-censored-information-in-coronavirus-outbrea

Businessmen? Politicians? Rich people? I don't think so.

These people you are stating have the power to be the first ones to be tested. In our country, those politicians are the first ones on the line being tested and not even prioritizing the people that are already positive to the virus.  (https://news.mb.com.ph/2020/03/20/social-media-raises-questions-on-political-influence-to-get-covid-19-test/)These people are sacrificing their people for their own good, because of them being prioritized, test kits are being short now for those people that needed it.

The Corona Virus is not only attacking humans but also impacting the world economy. Obviously this virus first hit the Chinese economy immediately. The spread of this virus is growing and in Europe as Italy is impacted by the tremendous impact. The latest American news also began to struggle to cope with the Corona spreading virus. I think another country with a difficult economy will increasingly have difficulty if this virus enters in a small country.

I didn't know that Spain wasn't affected more than others, I thought they were hit a lot more than others before this current pandemic. With this pandemic I learned so much from the "spanish flu" thing, it looks like there was political things went on back then as well, hopefully we will get a better understanding of what calling these flu's with names of nations could do and how it could hurt people this time around, looks like Trump is insisting on calling it "Chinese flu" and that is racist, china could be as wrong as it gets in everything, but you can't do that diplomatically.

Let’s hope that history will not repeat itself, things looking like its settling down a bit and we are looking a bit better, if we can keep it under control like this in long enough time we will definitely end this before summer.

So this means Italy would struggle more because they are next to US in terms of number of cases, I was surprise that there are more talks about Italy's situation that they are hopeless than in US that now US took the number 1 spot of the most infected people in a country.

The issue with Italy and US is about cases and death. Italy still has the highest rate of death with 10,000 plus while US has 2,000 plus in death and over hundred thousand in cases. But basically I think we are going to more progress in the number of survivals as China and few other European countries are getting curtailed.

What is the Germany dominated European Union doing for Italy, and Spain? It has failed. My friends told me that Germany is HODLING masks, and other protective equipment.

In a crisis, things always eventually devolve into self-interested behavior.

We're also seeing the beginnings of hoarding in the food supply chain, with multiple countries cutting off food exports to hedge against further disaster. Kazakhstan and Vietnam have moved to stop the export of key staples, with Russia threatening to do the same: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/mar/26/coronavirus-measures-could-cause-global-food-shortage-un-warns

Things are fine for now but experts are warning the food supply chain could break down within weeks in a worst case scenario. That would hit places with high food import costs like the UK especially hard.

With such a rapid spread of the virus, there was no other option but to close the borders. Each country in Europe still has an independent government that can react in times of crisis. Each country also has its own health service, which does not mean that countries do not help each other. As far as I know, German hospitals near the French border are open to French citizens. Each country is most worried about its citizens, but no one is insensitive to what is happening in neighboring countries.

About French - Geerman cooperation: https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/03/24/world/europe/ap-eu-virus-outbreak-eastern-france.html

When the Coronavirus started the most affected country is China because it is the epicenter of the virus, but as the virus spreads throughout the world the most affected countries for now is Italy because it is the highest rate of deaths. Many businesses in Italy are forced to shut down temporarily because of the pandemic virus. That’s why the Italian government are now asking for help in other countries because there are lot of people who are in critical condition.

Now, 9 days later, we can see that you were right about the number of cases in the USA. Indeed, the number, 277k, is the largest in the world. Only it's followed not by Italy and China, but by Italy and Spain.

But take into account that the total number of tests made is the largest in the USA, 1.4 million. And that's what is crucial, imo. South Korea, a country that is coping with the problem of COVID-19 best of all so far, made 455k tests(2 times more than in the USA per capita).

In short, the situation in the USA is far from being the worst in the world. And it can't be otherwise because there is a lot of resources to fight the the virus there.

Regardless of whether it is strong or weak due to this virus, many states have been damaged and will continue to see it. It is not easy to create or cause the collapse of a country, even if it is the states of the country in question, but the current administrations may lose their authority because they are exposed to this virus. Maybe there will be an optimistic guess, but I think that no country will come to the brink of bankruptcy in this process because the central banks of many countries have started to issue money as a temporary solution and aid packages have been received from institutions such as the IMF. Yes, the IMF may not be a good choice, but it should be kept in mind that it is a saving option for many countries. For this reason, 82 countries applied to this institution and also benefited from the support package for this process. Therefore, it is not very logical to wait for the collapse of a state, especially in the short term, in such an environment with so many options and possibilities, but if you want to comment on the long-term process, everything will change. I think that the whole world will pay a heavy economic price in the long-term period if all the countries are printing money, they are making serious borrowings due to this virus and the costs created by this virus.

this is sometimes a dilemma. on one hand they have to do economic security, on the other hand they have to save their citizens. a different story if the outbreak was found its source, so that it can be quarantined in the region. but if it is comprehensive in one country, it will become a serious problem

    Italy has the most numbers of infected and i think this may be one of the first to become bankrupt.Although it's difficult to predict if which country will be the first to go bankrupt but i think except for the country with many infected,I also think those country with very low economies,because this pandemic problem has a huge impact to our economy.

Italy had been hit hard on this pandemic. Their mortaility rate is high and it gets higher as day goes by. Even medical professionals are starting to give up on this fight. What made this difficult is there is no other country who can lend a hand since everyone has their own battle to fight. Let's hope that their front liners will stay strong along with their leaders.

That is the local government must be able to make extra stronger in dealing with a pandemic like this and indeed every country must have the same problem, but for Italy, the burden is really heavy so this problem is almost shocking the world.
This virus originated from China but China is able to cope well even there are rumors they will open their cities again to their activities as usual and therefore I hope other countries will experience the same thing by continuing to fight the corona virus is able to handle its way out.

The USA has a very difficult situation with a large number of people infected with Covid19 and the number of deaths. Recovery will be longer for the country, in addition to that, we still do not have a cure for the virus.
As long as Covid19 is not controlled it will be threatening global health and the result of an economic recession.

Our country belongs to a third world country and it's now in dilemma. Our government has extended the enhanced community quarantine and one of the problems that we have to face is our economic situation right now. The government can't sustain our necessities and our funds are not enough to fulfill the country's needs while we're quarantined. Our economic situation has been dropping down. I just wish that things will get better for us before we lose everything.

Well I guess what ever your country is, first world or third world, every nation is in dilemma. Just look at USA now, they become the epicenter after hitting the highest covid cases with over 450,000 now and is seriously having hard time to cure the virus, it's been 5 months yet we haven't found the vaccine but I think we are near in seeing the vaccine as we have a high rate of recovered patients.

Don't expect that the number of days of quarantine will just be it especially with health problems like this coz unlike the other problems it is hard to sustain so don't blame your government for extending it, that is just for every one to be safe. As for economic status of one's nation, I guess there will be a massive pull down from every country especially on those hardly destructed.

Those that are going to suffer the most, which I know that they are already suffering, are the poorest countries. First countries that are going to go bankrupt: the first one I’m going to start with is Niger. Niger is the poorest country in the world due to several reasons and they are probably going to the be the first to start going bankrupt, if they have not gone bankrupt already.

The next country that will quickly follow the lead is Central African Republic, and the rest are South Sudan, Chad, Burundi, Sierra Leone, Burkina Faso and Mali. These countries I have listed are in extreme poverty and are really suffering, and they are the ones that are going to be affected.

Looking at the chart now it seems that USA and more on European countries are the Most affected now

US=420k infected 14k deaths

Spain=140k infected 14k deaths

Italy=130k infected 17k deaths.

If this continues then on those 3 countries will be the Answer among the rest though it is sad to see that there will be a country that may become Bankrupt after this Pandemic.

If these poor countries had the same number of cases as in the rich ones, they would suffer the most, no doubt about that. But the thing is that rich countries are more affected by the virus because they have more people per capita who can afford travelling, and it's the travelers who spread the virus.

Hopefully, an effective treatment will be found before the virus reaches those poor regions.

I am hoping the same, the poor countries will be heavily affected because they are not ready for this virus.
If the cases in the US which already rich to 500,000 will happen in poor country, I don't know what will happen but God have mercy, hopefully we will not see that happening.

Wealthy travelers are more likely to be super spreaders, but it doesn't take many cases for the virus to take hold in any given locality. In almost every African country, it's now spreading at the community level. Cases are doubling every few days now. We've seen how quickly these things turn exponential. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52230991

Africa and Russia are poised to be the next epicenters of the pandemic over the next few weeks. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/world/europe/coronavirus-russia-moscow-putin.html

We don't need to blame the government here, really. If they will be lifting the Enhanced Community Quarantine without clearing or containing the carriers, then that would mean more damage to the people and obviously to the economy of our country. It is hard but we need to hold on for the sake of our people and also of our country.

Then in this crisis, it showed, that the European has lost it's purpose, or not needed anymore, and it needs to break-up as soon as possible in my opinion. What's left? Nothing, unless you have the advantage like Germany.

In my opinion all countries with high populated cities will suffer from this long term.
All developed nations will be forced to use their tax money to save lives, take credits from thier children. Those countries who were barely surviving with low income population and corrupted governments can turn into chaos.
So stock on some toilet paper, and hope that the vaccine will be found soon.

For me it is the US who will suffer more in this pandemic, news are reporting about how the US handle this virus and they said that they are really having a hard time to fight this virus. Although US is a first world country, and a large country with a good state of economy, their stock market is really affected by this virus. According to the news, the New York city is having a hard time to assist its patients so that they will recover from this virus. They said that they are lacking of equipment and manpower as doctors are also getting the virus while taking care of patients. The stock market is down and the people are still panic buying just to survive the quarantine. Until now, we have no idea when this virus will end and it is hard to accept that there are lives that have been loss.

Indeed. The country who will be affected the most by the corona virus is the U.S. because they have the highest number of virus cases all over the world that they already passed the number of cases in China and Italy, that is why they are having a hard time dealing and handling this virus that their economy is rapidly going down. I also think that every country is really having a hard time fighting this virus because it really takes a lot of time for an infected person to recover from the virus.

Many people today think that the china is really hits the pandemic crisis because most of the time it is the other country at the first place even in the china starts the virus they have the most cured people and after that it is spreading the really hits hard is the United States and after that is the Korea and the Europe and still there is no active anti virus or vaccine but still we are hoping they are now immediately make a cure because it is really hits hard the market and many people getting affected and also the stock market does not make a good trading to mske more earnings.

It is really suspicious on China's part, just think about it, the virus was discovered in Wuhan, China yet the connecting cities to it like Beijing and Shanghai seems to be unaffected by it however other countries like Italy and USA which is farther away from them gets the virus and severely damaged economically. I really tried not to think that China did not do it, but as day passes and I read facts on the internet it makes me think of the dots that may be connected to each other. The recovery rate in China is high which makes me more suspicious about them.

That's what I was thinking, too, although I don't think they're going to go bankrupt.

I'm kind of worried about the future of the US, especially since the government cranked up the money printing and is sending pretty much every citizen or family a check for something like $1200.  I'm not sure how we intend to pay for all that, and my guess is that it's not going to be a gift from Trump but a loan that we're going to be paying off with higher taxes and such after everything settles.  The US isn't going to go bankrupt in the immediate future, but that's where we're headed.

And yeah, I think the poorest countries are going to get slaughtered economically.  But who knows.  We'll see where we are in a year or so.

The US is safe, of course, except for a large number of victims of the virus. But this is a country with a huge number of citizens, so in percentage terms, this should not be different from other countries.
Even if the US prints huge amounts of dollars, the country will not suffer, precisely because the US has dollars.
After Trump's last announcement of printing 2 billion, the price instead of going down went up, so even if it announces the printing of another 2 billion, nothing bad will probably happen.
I think that the United Kingdom will have much more problems, because the exit from the European Union associated with the virus epidemic can become a very big economic problem for them.

Bitcoin is pointing to 5k by May.
However, a reversal is possible, due to a stable line coming from the start of 2017.

If people realize that holding fiat is losing money, they will invest. The more governments prints it, the more it will lose value on long-term.

We might see a global blood bath we have not seen in a long time and much bigger than the 2008 crisis and the situation in third world countries will be really pathetic, right now we have no idea when the pandemic is going down and how long the government can force everyone to sit at home and do nothing.

You are dreaming, do you have any idea about debt they are having if they keep on printing money how they are going to control the inflation. Printing money will not save any country and it will give the opposite result.

Has it actually lost its purpose? https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/eu-in-brief_en

This isn't my area of expertise, but I thought the EU was primarily about monetary and economic policy. I wasn't aware it implied rich countries were supposed to unconditionally bail out poor countries in any crisis.

Corona actually has nothing to do with developed countries, developing countries or poor countries. What's different is how the government's response in dealing with corona. We can take the example of China, the Netherlands, Taiwan, the United States.

China is a total lockdown of Wuhan city because it has already fallen in corona. The Netherlands with failed herd immunity. The United States, which was initially confident of being able to conquer Corona, finally bites a finger. And finally, the successful Taiwan provided an umbrella before it rained to overcome the corona.

In Taiwan when the corona outbreak was still in Wuhan, those safe times were used to prepare for the arrival of the virus. Since SARS attacked, Taiwan already has a formal institution that monitors and handles outbreaks. So when the plague in Wuhan became uncontrollable. Taiwan has produced more masks and provided counseling, so there is no increase in the price of masks in Taiwan around USD 1.7 for 9 pieces of surgical masked. Purchase with quota & show health identity card, without a card you can not order. The maximum order is only for 14 days, order through the government website and can be taken at retail stores. Taiwan has also prepared thousands of isolation rooms in all hospitals equipped with negative pressure rooms.

This is the same preparation Kerala a state in India took when the outbreak in China is reported because the state had a prior experience with the Nipah virus outbreak and they were able to control it in record time during 2018 and this time when the outbreak was spreading the government took precaution by forming necessary teams to counter the situation well before a positive case was confirmed and so is the reason it is the only state that could flatten the curve, the rest of the countries who were late in identifying the situation are suffereing.

Relatively recently, I expressed the opinion that there will not be such countries, but yesterday I read an article that almost all enterprises in Iran resumed work, despite the incompleteness due to the pandemic. They assume that the country simply has practically no reserves left and they are forced to return to work in order to avoid default.

You're right! That actually makes their "EU-bond", which is currently dominated by Germany, less-binding. PLUS, the EU has to bail out countries that can't pay their debts now, or they leave.

The third world country will be the one that will be hit hard, I am part of a third world country and the government cannot keep up, with dole and to sustain people who are out of work because of COVID, right now our government is thinking of selling their properties and the world bank already lend us, if this continue the third world country will have a recession and will go bankrupt.

That sounds terrible.

Many countries like my own were barely holding, and now that this crisis just started it becomes really hard for the world economy to keep existing as existed before.

I can feel you mate,and you are perfectly correct that the government hits harder about this Pandemic and at some point even the Health workers are aiming to surrender because of underlying situation now.
and this will only ruining the curing mate,imagine while most of the world are under lockdown to prevent the spread and here Iran comes back to normal as if there are no more dying now?

Bankruptcy is kinda deep to talk about as most of the countries even if they are very poor will likely to create a counter measure in order to avoid this kind of happening as it is the worst. A country that is bankrupt is almost dead but the poorest country will likely to be hit hard if in case they will be affected that much by the virus and they can't contain it.

So it's a matter on how they are going to deal with the virus, other are imposing lockdown to lessen the affected person therefore all will depend on how the government will take a counter measure to this pandemic until the vaccine will be available. Even the wealthiest country are not exempted to this especially if they mismanaged this situation like what happened to USA where the infected persons are keep on growing. So in the end, I will not try to guess if who is the first country to become bankrupt as I don't like the idea and if possible I don't want any countries to suffer a bankruptcy.

This seems relevant: Coronavirus could cause more countries to default on their debt, economist says (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/coronavirus-more-countries-could-default-on-debt-economist-says.html)

He's bearish on Greece and Italy, that's easy enough. But he's also betting the pandemic will lead to crises for South Africa, Brazil, and Argentina:


The IMF is predicting the worst recession since the 30s. Accurate or not, you have to think there are going to be some big defaults, if only from countries who are already teetering on the edge.

Yeah, that is how a businessman thinks.
There will never be a freebie for that guy. I wish he did.
But he already won the presidency so I think he is not in a position to give anymore. He got what he want.

I really thought at start it would be Italy who will be the top candidate but then USA took over the 1st place.
Last week I read like 300k but now they are at 641,919. Recovered is not even touching the 10 percent yet.

What governments understand that, when you are in charge (in politics) you are given an insane power, you can literally get away with murder if you are careful enough, you can steal, bribe and destroy your way into being even more powerful, you can basically be as close to untouchable as it gets, nobody else could have that type of power. S,o what does politicians use that for? Of course to their own benefit, yet they do realize that when the powers shift and when they lose that power, they might be found guilty for what they have done during the period they had the power.

So, they would rather never give up their power at all, at least that is how they are trying to protect themselves. If the financial system collapses and everyone is hungry and people have zero money, they will blame the government for not doing enough so they will vote for someone else. Which is why governments will probably try to avoid a big crisis as much as they can.

That is the biggest trouble, these third world nations that are economically not good anyway, will have hard time even harder after this ends, probably during this period as well. Think about it, you are at home, you just got fired, your nations economy is horrible, everything is insanely expensive while you are not making enough to even survive, yet you got fired so you are even more trouble, so with all of that in mind everyone tells you to stay at home and you can't go out and look for a new job, you can barely go outside, when you do all you can think of how you can find a food to eat and how to keep your shelter.

The amount of danger waiting for the poor people of the poor nations are very very big, we are talking about DEATH level of threat right now, sure we are not at that level and we are only scared of our economy and finances but these people are fighting for their LIFE right now.

Many countries actually consider such decision even in the US trump urge to reopen after going so much struggle, by simple logic we can assume that all the countries more specifically the developing and fragile ones will really have a hard time. This time is time of uncertainty it's like there's no good decision only bad and the worst.

In my opinion, all affected countries will have an equal possibility to enjoy a slowdown even to financial failure. How a lot do they need to pay and no longer to say the numerous victims who died due to this pandemic.

The US has 700k+ cases currently, but we shouldn't count out the population of the country, around 330 million, and the fact that the US has done more coronavirus tests than anybody else, 3.5 million+. I mean, some other countries can have the same amount of cases per capita, they just don't know about it. But that is not to say that the economic impact of the virus can be more devastating in the end in those countries. IMO no country will go bankrupt because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

After China maybe united state become most terrible country with many people got corona virus, how ever after corona cases many country stop for new comer and never give allowing for every one enter in their country. Become bad moment when corona never could stop and keep going terrible until this finish.

There are at least the top three countries that are very worrying because besides the United States there are two countries underneath which are Spain and Italy. But anyway, when this pandemic continues to be severe in the sense that it cannot be resolved quickly and on the contrary more and more people are infected, then of course every country has the same concern. Hopefully this pandemic ends soon

Poor countries, definitely. Better said, countries with huge organizational issues.

The latter introduces the US to the list, I think the US is going to see worse numbers than the likes of Italy and not just referring to the greater size of its population, but percentually it'll be greater.

Do you mean the definition of bankruptcy such as Argentina, Greece, and Zimbabwe? Maybe developing and poor countries can face the situation after the pandemic effect ends.

In one blow, the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the impoverishment of a large sector of the world's population. And guess who is the savior in overcoming this crisis, the IMF and the World Bank. The IMF will lend money to a country and with the money that the IMF lends to a country, that country will repay the IMF. The neoliberal solution implemented at the global level does not, in fact, restore the economy but rather impoverish it. The drama of the start of the new debt process was played and in the end, contributed to the increase of the debt by many countries in the world.

Lockdown as the only recommended method for WHO to counter COVID 19 brings a restructuring of the global economy and the consequences are conditioning the concentration of massive wealth, destabilizing small and medium enterprises in all key areas of economic activity including service economy, agriculture, and manufacturing, undermining rights workers, disrupting the labor market, depressing wages in high-income developed countries as well as in poor developing countries. In turn, all this has led to mass unemployment, bankruptcy of small and medium-sized companies, destruction of people's purchasing power, widespread poverty and hunger in many countries.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/04/03/tr040320-transcript-kristalina-georgieva-participation-world-health-organization-press-briefing

the poor country with low health care and high population , the pandemic will grow fast there and kill every aspect  rapidly

No, I mean the Great Depression kind of crisis, which many doomsayers predict these days. Of course I understand that some negative impact on the economy will be experienced by every country, but I think no country, rich or poor, will be affected greatly, meaning, will be affected to the degree so that one could see it just by looking on the streets. That's what many people are afraid of currently, and that's what is not going to happen, in my opinion.

That's very relevant actually. It's the whole point of the topic, BUT, it's also a guessing game. Hahaha.

Plus the Crude Oil market has crashed, Russia and other oil-producing countries, not under rich Arab-rule, could default too.

At first i'd expected it to be China as they recorded a rate of infected and manage to have number of people contracting the disease more 80,000 but i was wrong it seems the most likely to go down first is The USA. As they have no prevention in the virus and underestimated it, just like in Spain and Italy. Upon researching on how much time needed for a vaccine to be created i found its 2 years max.

So probably those 3 countries namely US, Spain and Italy wouldn't survive.

People will be disappointed with pandemic effect on some poorer countries. Most of them dont have the means of taking data and information from those countries may not be reliable. Countries densely populated with no proper city plan can affect the spread, also health infrastructure put in place and proactive measure by the government; testing process, treatment and disposal of the dead. Vaccines are likely to be available before it hit the poorer countries   

Can't tell which country but definitely the poor countries will suffer more. That's why it's necessary that the measures poor countries will implement will be very strict as they can't afford to facilitate a huge number of people in their hospital as they lack facilities and doctors.

I think all countries will definitely go bankrupt with covid-19 chaos. but in terms of economic progress, those who are able to stand up earlier than those who will win, those who will suffer the greatest losses are developing countries, with the average population still earning the least and day laborers.
 Hopefully this problem covid-19

Poor and marginalized countries will surely be devastated. Most especially those which has a large number of its population but is at a low level in terms of its strength in the medical field. You cannot base bankrupcy by just their size because we see Malaysia sorting out the problem well. Those countries which have a disorganized government, dishonest officials, and hard headed people, are the ones which contribute to the coming of a worse case scenario for that country.

I do agree that these poor nations are probably either hiding their numbers or more simply they are just not doing tests as much as other nations which is why we do not see too many numbers in the underdeveloped nations.

However there is also another possibility that these poor nations are poor for a reason and maybe the touristic poor places like south east Asia or something could be still having a big pandemic spread going on that they are not aware, but looking at Latin American countries and African countries I can't stop myself from thinking maybe not a lot of Chinese people went there during pandemic and after that maybe not a lot of Europeans neither? These are places that not many people fly to so maybe no corona people ever went there and they never had any sick people because of it?

Depending on how the country's leaders respond to every challenge and threat that comes. Supposing F1 racing in control is the driver to be able to overtake the corner. Recession after the pandemic effect ends is certain because in the name of another budged humanity diverted for the allocation of pandemic mitigation.

Recession will not continue to depression because of the decline and slowdown in the real economy due to individual movements as economic agents are limited. Isolation and quarantine caused many small scale industrial companies to be forced to stop, as a result, there was no income, a reduction in labor that affected consumption figures. So the government must provide direct cash assistance for living benefits for many people affected by corona.

It all depends on the country's leaders in resolving this pandemic. Considering corona as an ordinary virus or seeing a pandemic corona as a national threat. This rationale will bring a different frame of mind in overcoming corona.

Coronavirus is a national threat due to the fact that there are three types of coronaviruses that affect the world, mild type A circulating in the United States and Australia and the UK, Type B circulating in Wuhan and Type C circulating in Europe and Singapore.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8204255/There-THREE-separate-types-coronavirus.html

In the period of stopping the pandemic, the government can simultaneously formulate or carry out a virtual simulation, the steps taken after the pandemic is based on the timeframe of outbreak handling. The smart leader can overtake the corner by utilizing the moment of supply shortages after the pandemic ends because only 50% of manufacturing and industry are working.

Concern after the pandemic ends is how to turn back the wheel of the economy so that a lot of labor is absorbed and restore the passion of consumption. Employment creation projects that absorb large numbers of workers must be guarded by the government, given permits and capital facilities with strict supervision. For the capital required, the government can make money as long as it is verified from the upstream and downstream industries and the money is actually played in the real sector.

Seems that this is wrong mate because the most infected and problematic now are USA and European countries and sure they will suffer more after this pandemic.
All countries must be stricter because if they don't then the virus will never stop spreading.
Hospitals are being extended now because there are hotels and other buildings that has been used to facilitate victims now.

Idk, mate, I think it's the easiest part. People are so tired of sitting at home now that I'm sure they will start working effectively as never before when quarantine is lifted. And imo there's no need in restoring the passion of consumption, because, in fact, it hasn't gone anywhere. We'll see huge waves of movie and concert goers, shoppers etc. when the whole thing is over. I actually predict a huge economic growth, something akin to the post–World War II economic expansion.

I predict that a poor country will be worst affected by the corona virus. Possible countries from Africa or Asia are likely can go bankrupt.
Even though the United States and Europe are on the top rank of the corona virus spread, but because of the country America and Europe
have a strong economy. Then it will be fast to be able to recover from the effects of the corona virus.

The problem is more complex than that. A robust economy requires more than just a willing labor force. It needs employers.

A friend remarked to me a few weeks ago, something like "anyone who thinks a business can just close for two months and then reopen like nothing happened has never run a business before." And I think it's true. Half of US small businesses don't have enough cash to survive one month without incoming revenue: https://www.businessinsider.com/how-long-companies-can-survive-without-bringing-in-money-2020-3

Then there is this to consider:


It's probably safe to say we'll see a lot of permanent business closures as a result of these shutdowns. It will take years to recover those jobs.

If the pandemic just disappeared a few months ago then I think the country can still survive and will not go bankrupt in the economy, at a glance we must know that some European countries are experiencing a very great co-19 where the death rate has risen dramatically per day it means the country can survive with the economy which is still ongoing but many say that covid-19 is just the beginning of a conspiracy of the trade war.

Poorest countries will not be affected by COVID-19 due to the fact that they do not have a lot of interaction with big economies and nations such as China. US of Europe.
They will not have a lot of infections and as a result their economy is going to continue working normally.

They are equally having the same contact with the developed countries simply because the world is a global village and that permits all kinds of relationship from physical trade to digital. The contagious rate therefore is same. But I can agree that the poor countries might not have so much casualties because of early prevention and help from countries that have already gone through it.

As this virus gone wild and infect humans, it has always been a very serious threat to those who don't have enough facilities and equipments. But I dont know how USA got hit very bad.

It would certainly be so if there were no government support of small businesses. Yes, small companies can't survive without bringing in money, and they can't earn money while being closed, but if the government gives them the money they lack, they survive. The money given by government to them will not be enough for them to prosper, but it will be enough to survive. And I think this is what going to happen in the developed countries. But I'm not sure about underdeveloped ones.

The fact is that on the network people are viewing a lot of scenarios for the further development of events, especially those that indicate the causes of the coronavirus pandemic.  Of course, this is only an assumption, but for some reason it is very alarming that the spread of the virus may be an opportunity to establish a new world order, or even worse, a reduction in the world's population, because there are too many people and nature, as well as resource balances  in the near future for all of humanity.  It is this issue that the World Secret Government can deal with and the current state of the world economy is nothing compared to the future of mankind.

Note that even the so called Developed country are suffering the effect of this virus like US who is now calling for help from around the world and is only after the pandemic we will know the economy that is strong enough to recover quickly as one cannot tell now what will happen in future after this Pandemic.
I have issue with the lockdown measure to cub spread of the virus for am of the opinion that the lockdown measure should be base affected community by community and not just to short down the whole economy of the country as some countries are busy copy other countries lockdown measure which doesn't work.

At this point the power that gives value to fiat money is trust, to much printing may affect this trust and the results could be disastrous.

This is a difficult question to answer which country is most affected by the COVID-19 epidemic. Because no one can know exactly what a country's budget really is and how much it can afford to borrow from the World Bank. But I think there will be a group of countries at risk of bankruptcy in the economy. These are the countries that have been severely affected by this epidemic with extremely high numbers of cases and embargoed by the US and Europe. That is Iran.

With oil prices in the dumps, some of the weaker oil export-heavy countries on this list may be interesting to watch regarding sovereign defaults:

https://i.imgur.com/GIqIc7D.png


Not sure about other countries but the US bailout money are loans, not gifts. These businesses are taking on massive debts to keep afloat. The longer this goes on, the worst shape they'll be in when they do reopen. Since the loans will be forgiven if they default, businesses have some incentive to take the loans now and just close up shop later. It'll be interesting to see what happens in a month or two (regarding defaults and bankruptcies) when it's expected that most states will start reopening.

In my opinion, countries in the top poor and not having drastic measures to prevent pandemic in the first place are likely to go bankrupt and default first. They don't have enough human and financial resources to fight for a long time, before major countries (countries can help them) quell the epidemic and the world economy temporarily recover.

Good thing they are not hit hard now compared to the big countries, like the top 3 countries which has the highest cases, they are rich countries so they can handle the situation, once they find the vaccine, the poor countries will also benefit, so the poor countries measures now should be very strict to avoid a significant increase which they might be able to handle in the long run.

not possible countries could go bankrupt likely all countries experiencing economic problems a country that has a high poverty rate would be the rate of deaths and starvation were the highest because they do not have a store to eat and do not have the money for their needs every day to survive pandemic period due to the lockdown requires food stored in a country if the government does not provide assistance to the poor then they may die of hunger.

now I think It would be third world country like Uganda their economy was already bad

if the situation with covid 19 will only get worse, then it seems to me that in some countries the problems will be much more complicated than the fight against coronavirus.  in fact, some experts predict an increased number of crimes, because people have no other way to earn a living.  Anyway,  you always need to pay the bills and buy food, and not everyone can now afford it, but not a single state has taken care to make life easier for its citizens.

not only poor countries but even rich and richest ones are infact more prone to it  . but how can they foccus on thier economic growth when they are poor already and they can even become poorer on these times   . what you mean to say is that they need to foccus on implementing a good strategy to combat the virus .  @finestream   . i can feel it now here on our place   ,  hospitals here are now rejecting people  . this is bad because those people are dying . people complain without knowing the situation

If we look at the condition of the world economy is really apprehensive, many countries have finally decided to print money to save
economy. But this way is only for the short term, but can have a bad effect if for the long term. Inflation rate can increase, and many
are affected by this corona virus, the country of America which became the first most populous country corona virus. But countries
from Africa that are likely to be the first to go bankrupt, we know in Africa many poor countries. Which can be bankrupt if exposed to
this corona virus, because the economy is weak.

Some countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia can really suffer very much, due to their rather poor development, and the lack of an adequate level of health care that could help them with boron coronavirus. They can only hope for outside help.

things look shaky for italy. their bonds were just downgraded again, just one level above junk bonds now. they are going deep into debt with bailout loans for businesses, similar to the USA.

given how modest EU stimulus has been so far, are we expecting an italian bailout, if push comes to shove?

this princeton economist doesn't think so:


so italy is definitely on the watchlist.

Aren't all successful companies start their business from taking massive loans? And there's nothing wrong with that. That's how business has been done for more than a century in the Western world. Why should we suppose that they would choose to declare bankruptcy right away? Some of them will do just that, of course, but, I'm sure, most of them will strive to make profits(and will succeed in that, imo). 

An eternal optimist, you. :D

Successful companies usually take loans for growth. Taking loans to shut down (while funding overheads and payroll) is a little different.

Sure, some businesses will do just fine. I'm just saying shutting down for 2-3 months and taking on a shitload of debt is a shock that many businesses can't handle, particularly small businesses. Plus, the bigger problem than the shutdowns is that demand may not return even once they are lifted:

As States Begin to Reopen, Many Stay Home—Keeping Economic Rebound Elusive (https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-states-begin-to-reopen-many-stay-homekeeping-economic-rebound-elusive-11588411801)

Who Will Reopen the Economy—the President, the Governors, or the People? (https://www.cato.org/blog/who-will-reopen-economy-president-governors-or-people)

Yes I'm optimistic, but my optimism isn't coming out of nowhere. Over a million COVID-19 patients have recovered successfully, and among 2 million+ currently active cases only 2% are in serious or critical condition. This virus turned out to be not as deadly as first feared. Some people, like that yoga teacher in your video, are still afraid of the worst case scenario, but more and more specialists agree that the probability of it is very low.

BUT the negative impact on the economy won't end for another two years. We might see unemployment rates surge around the globe like never before. Some analysts claim the unemployment rate in the U.S. might surge as high as the Great Depression.

Would that mean a lot of people will be homeless again in US?
Maybe at the moment we haven't feel the effect yet because currently we are under the support of the government but soon it will show.

I don't live in US but I am starting to feel the effect of the pandemic, a lot of business are closing already especially those who are not allowed to operate at the moment, the rent and bills are killing their business, so it's wise to close it at the moment and these people will loss their source of income which is same like people who are unemployed at the moment.

Yeah, a lot of people WILL be homeless, jobless, penniless. Although, I believe the U.S. will manage better than its European counterparts.

I'm still waiting for annoucements of the first default by an E.U. state.

It will start with the developing countries, especially those that are already in critical condition before the pandemic started. There are lots of countries that are living in a really bad situation before the Coronavirus pandemic started.

Countries such as the DR Congo, Mozambique, Haiti, Ethiopia, and I don't know if I should add Venezuela to this list. Meehn, these countries will be hit really hard if this Coronavirus should get serious in such places. These poor countries are the ones that really shouldn't have let the virus get into their country. The worst part of it all is that most of them if not all, has a really bad government who don't care and wouldn't do much to stop the case

Could not be any unexpectedly consequences cause countries which economies were stronger before will stay strong.