rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[rpietila]

i agree with rpietila in a way i think there is also chance we go up from here but what about China rpietila don't you consider China ban being a huge dent for the short term? Also are you recommending people buy at this current price?

I am fed up with everybody panicking, and this is realistically a sign when the bottom is in. China "ban" is an absolute nonevent, it was around longer than you have had an account. Yes, I do recommend buying because this is the bottom, any questions?

[1714672063]

1714672063

[1714672063]

1714672063

[1714672063]

1714672063

[rpietila]

It's not a question of "omg should I sell or not sell because I am such afraid", it's "I sold much much higher, now do I have any reason to buy back yet or should I just keep relaxing and watch more kpop music videos?"

This is not directed to you(si) but the ones who are too much in and are considering between selling and rope.

As you have seen, I am also lining up my funds that I did not believe I would need, but nevertheless are still there to buy bitcoins if the price goes to 420 and below.

For all: If you want to sell off-exchange (slight discount) PM me.

[Carra23]

Damm, rpietla says this is the bottom? I want 400

[koryu]

i think smart money has sold long ago, and it was a good move. but i dont think we will go much lower, maybe 400 is possible.
but anybody who is selling now, could become one of the weak hands washed out. so if you are not an experienced trader the risk is higher than the profit you might make.
when smart money buys back in you dont want to be the one who sells your btcs to them.

[rpietila]

Damm, rpietla says this is the bottom? I want 400

I mean in a larger context. Something like "when the current pressure in the markets conclusively abates, then that marks the end of the capitulation process, during which the bottom has been formed so that the low point has probably been above the support at 375, and where this low will probably have been reached at most 1 week from now".

"probably" = "with somewhat greater probability than 50% (eg. 60-65%)"

[RAJSALLIN]

i agree with rpietila in a way i think there is also chance we go up from here but what about China rpietila don't you consider China ban being a huge dent for the short term? Also are you recommending people buy at this current price?

I am fed up with everybody panicking, and this is realistically a sign when the bottom is in. China "ban" is an absolute nonevent, it was around longer than you have had an account. Yes, I do recommend buying because this is the bottom, any questions?

Once the legacy banking system starts breaking down again; sentiment will change and bitcoin will be hitting new ATHs.

I think this is a very important statement which is often forgotten in the noise. Bitcoin is a novel monetary system and when the current system starts cracking up then bitcoin gets steam (like Cyprus last year). The fact that teh current system has been relatively stable for almost a year now and despite that bitcoin has gained momentum is a very strong sign. If the current system starts showing it's ugly face again bitcoin will see new highs. I'm certain of this. The question is how much longer can the current system go on without any cracks at all. Armstrong says fall next year but that's when s*** really is going to start happen. Until then I think it's fairly reasonable we could see miniature events that propel bitcoin.

[mmitech]

Source: https://litecointalk.org/index.php?topic=16820.msg152688#msg152688

For the lazy ones:


Hi all,

Once again, thank you for all your contributions and support for Litecoin Core Dev. We understand that everyone is concerned about the April 15th news, however we have not received such Notice and we are operating as usual. So rest assured, users can still trade, deposit and withdraw as usual. And we would like to reaffirm that this will not affect our 1000LTC Matching Challenge, and will still be donating the 1000LTC as promised.

We have also added the International BTCC Voucher option for our international users. BTCC Voucher is BTC China’s new CNY deposit/withdraw method, and it can be instantly credited into your BTC China account.  With this new addition, international users won’t need to have a bank account opened in Mainland China to purchase BTCC Vouchers. Please follow the link for more information: https://vip.btcchina.com/page/notice20140328

If you have further enquiries about International BTCC Voucher, please email voucher@btcchina.com

 
Thank you

BTC China Team

[JoeyD]

Could anyone conceive of a better moment to buy then in the low after mtGox and real China-ban, that actually coincides with the usual post ATH dip and spring-depression? There's a limit to how favorable you want the stars to align.

I'm pretty depressed after being Goxxed and buying in waaaay too high, but my depression is showing some major cracks and I'm having real trouble convincing myself not to touch what remains of my fiat-reserves (which were not meant for bitcoin) to buy in now.

[creekbore]

Could anyone conceive of a better moment to buy then in the low after mtGox and real China-ban?

I'm pretty depressed after being Goxxed and buying in waaaay too high, but my depression is showing some major cracks and I'm having real trouble convincing myself not to touch what remains of my fiat-reserves (which were not meant for bitcoin) to buy in now.

Old English Saying: "when in doubt, do nowt"

Seriously, don't trust any of the bullish 'advice' offered here (it's easy to be bullish when you own a 'castle')...if you think you could sleep well having lost all your money, then you are fine...if not, don't invest.

[RAJSALLIN]

Could anyone conceive of a better moment to buy then in the low after mtGox and real China-ban?

I'm pretty depressed after being Goxxed and buying in waaaay too high, but my depression is showing some major cracks and I'm having real trouble convincing myself not to touch what remains of my fiat-reserves (which were not meant for bitcoin) to buy in now.

Old English Saying: "when in doubt, do nowt"

Seriously, don't trust any of the bullish 'advice' offered here (it's easy to be bullish when you own a 'castle')...if you think you could sleep well having lost all your money, then you are fine...if not, don't invest.

Very true

[rpietila]

$4.8 million from 445->600

$5.0 million from 445->400

[creekbore]

$4.8 million from 445->600

$5.0 million from 445->400

BId Sum 11M
Ask Sum 30M

[rpietila]

$4.8 million from 445->600

$5.0 million from 445->400

BId Sum 11M
Ask Sum 30M

# of bitcoins = 12,000,000
# of USD = 12,000,000,000,000

[znaky]

Could anyone conceive of a better moment to buy then in the low after mtGox and real China-ban, that actually coincides with the usual post ATH dip and spring-depression? There's a limit to how favorable you want the stars to align.

got a hunch? buy a bunch.

[AnonyMint]

We should now shift into yet again a lower adoption slope than from July 2011 to December 2013.

What a heck makes you think so at a face of universal awareness that is just achieved?

Math Risto. You can't deny math. Here is the shocking revelation...

Because if you put a ruler on the chart along the bottoms of unique addresses on the log 10 chart, you see the slope was higher before the July 2011 crash, than it has been since 2012.

Also it is very likely that Bitcoin adoption is not logistic where the maximum rate of adoption is at 50% of the adoption as follows:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations


Because Bitcoin is not adopted for utility, rather the probability distribution of the adopters is power-law because that is the distribution of money[1] as follows.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law


Thus Bitcoin adoption is log-logistic as follows. Note that for B=1/2 which is the power-law distribution, that the slope of the log-logistic function gradually declines for the life of the curve. And that is exactly what we are seeing happen thus far as I stated above.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log-logistic_distribution




[1] A. Dragulescu and V. Yakovenko. Exponential and power-law probability distributions of wealth and income in the United Kingdom and the United States

I am more interpreting the sudden but unrelenting attack towards coin in this thread and elsewhere, that the bottom is in during these very days, and after 1 week we are already higher and never look back.

Now you are being emotional and not based on reason and calm analysis of the data.

Don't expect me to soothe your(pl.) fears now. You have chosen fear, you could reject it like I do.

You are the one is scared. Evident by the tone of your reply.

I have no coins. And there is only a small chance that I might buy some if it goes low enough. I am calm. I am trying to analyze if it is worth me risking it given the lack of anonymity in Bitcoin and how horrific I see confiscation coming in 2016. So that is why I am analyzing what the true trendline and math is.

Also I am sharing so others can get a different perspective than just yours, since you don't seem to be willing to analyze other points-of-view.

Fundamentals have not changed,

Fundamental adoption rate along the bottom of the unique address curve has not changed.

there is nothing in US or China statement that was new, or that threatens the adoption of bitcoin realistically.

Doesn't affect that fundamental adoption rate, but it does affect the 50% higher (at 150,000 and bottoms trendline projects to 100,000) on the unique addresses chart which is 50% higher than the fundamental adoption. This appears to be due to extreme exuberance from permabulls like you, who have not been looking realistically at the data and instead choosing the data fitting that paints a much more bullish trendline than the fundamental adoption where the periodic bottoms are.

When you wake up, you see that all the things that you feared that week, were there since many months, and will still be there. It is called targeted propaganda that they are suddenly poured over you at one time and make you lose your mind.

I don't think anyone was talking about selling out and never buying back in. I think this was more about when to deploy funds.

Yeah we know that all markets are manipulated because the masses have to be suckered into overextending themselves and then pigs get slaughtered then repeat again.

[MatTheCat]

I am fed up with everybody panicking, and this is realistically a sign when the bottom is in. China "ban" is an absolute nonevent, it was around longer than you have had an account. Yes, I do recommend buying because this is the bottom, any questions?

In all seriousness, I know that you are in control of a hell of a lot of Bitcoins, and that sub $500 has been your accumulation zone, and that any dip below this territory, perhaps starts eating into the actual profitability of some of your investments.

To me, as a mere onlooker with nothing much to lose except being whipsawed yet again out of a short position which had I just held out on would have came good (yet again), it seems pretty obvious that Bitcoin is going to go lower than the crucial $380 - $400 support. You, with your exponential mean curves and your heavily vested interests in This being the actual bottom on the otherhand, may be in a position where your emotions are tricking you into thinking that it is everyone else who is being emotional, whilst you are being rational, but are you really?

China has not yet banned Bitcoin outright and China is not yet fully priced in. As Zhangwheiu explained, it is not going to be their style to kill it outright, but rather slowly stifle it all the while pretending that they have nothing against Bitcoin or Bitcoin exchanges per se. They say the 15th April, in all likelihood this will drag on longer than that, and with it, the steady flow of CNY coins seeking arbitrage opportunity and/or last gasp means of getting wealth out of CNY and into USD. Joe Blow right now is scared of Bitcoin. Large investors know that now is not a good time to invest. There just isn't the buying pressure at the moment to push Bitcoin up beyond anything more than a counter trend rally, but the selling pressure will continue in a steady stream thanks to Chinese based investors getting out of Bitcoin.

We are currently trending on very low volume at $450, just $70 above a very significant price point and I think you will understand better than most what it will likely mean for market psychology if this $380 support fails to hold.

I have (practically) no market position that is affecting my emotional state. I say Bitcoin is going back to $200 range. If I am proven wrong than I shall be ready to jump back on if/when Bitcoin takes out and holds above important resistances (first being $480-$490), but will of course drop the lot the minute things start to look a bit shaky, as for me, my better instincts tell me that the writing is on the wall for Bitcoin.

[MatTheCat]

14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 379.21   |   USDSUM = $  94741.83
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 384.21   |   USDSUM = $  95991.03
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 389.21   |   USDSUM = $  97240.23
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 394.21   |   USDSUM = $  98489.43
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 399.21   |   USDSUM = $  99738.63
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 404.21   |   USDSUM = $ 100987.83
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 409.21   |   USDSUM = $ 102237.03
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 414.21   |   USDSUM = $ 103486.23
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 419.21   |   USDSUM = $ 104735.43
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 424.21   |   USDSUM = $ 105984.63
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 429.21   |   USDSUM = $ 107233.83
14:10 -  BID:     249.84000000  BTC   @   $ 434.21   |   USDSUM = $ 108483.03

14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 446.02   |   USDSUM = $ 109988.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 441.02   |   USDSUM = $ 108755.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 436.02   |   USDSUM = $ 107522.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 431.02   |   USDSUM = $ 106289.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 426.02   |   USDSUM = $ 105056.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 421.02   |   USDSUM = $ 103823.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 416.02   |   USDSUM = $ 102590.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 411.02   |   USDSUM = $ 101357.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 406.02   |   USDSUM = $ 100124.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 401.02   |   USDSUM = $  98891.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 396.02   |   USDSUM = $  97658.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 391.02   |   USDSUM = $  96425.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 386.02   |   USDSUM = $  95192.53
14:10 +  BID:     246.60000000  BTC   @   $ 381.02   |   USDSUM = $  93959.53

Someone really doesn't want Bitcoin to go down, huh?

[MatTheCat]

Someone really doesn't want Bitcoin to go down, huh?

Look back in this thread for when I posted when those staggered bids were first added. She's been waiting patiently for the "market" to drop for quite a while and I guess her patience is running out. I don't think she is trying to keep the "market up", I believe she's an actual buyer.

She is playing with a rather large ball of capital at what I would consider a very risky time. I also notice that these Bids are getting pulled outwith 'her' office hours. Although, from experience, the walls on Stamp are more likely than not to be genuine, as opposed to on Bitfinex, where 9/10 times, anything large and imposing is generally intended to trick traders into doing the wrong thing.

[electronistul]

[...] I see confiscation coming in 2016. So that is why I am analyzing [...]

I am so sorry to pollute Risto's thread with unsuitable words, but WTF ?!
What confiscation ? Who's confiscating what ?! Are we in the middle ages or bolshevik Russia _(CCCP)_ now ?
AnonyMint, would you please care to share your thoughts / analysis / sources on this one with us ?

[RAJSALLIN]

[...] I see confiscation coming in 2016. So that is why I am analyzing [...]

I am so sorry to pollute Risto's thread with unsuitable words, but WTF ?!
What confiscation ? Who's confiscating what ?! Are we in the middle ages or bolshevik Russia _(CCCP)_ now ?
AnonyMint, would you please care to share your thoughts / analysis / sources on this one with us ?

The world economy is going down the drain due to the enormous debt build up. In order to prevent total chaos when the castle starts breaking apart governments will want to confiscate as much wealth as possible. They won't go down without a fight so to say. And their best fighting power is taxation of different sort. How far they go is the question. I don't think they would go to the obscene levels Anonymint speaks of (70%+ taxation) but who knows.