|
Monday price pumpin'
Vanguard CEO cryin'
Falling bears dyin'
#rhyminghaiku
|
|
|
|
Just downloaded my transaction list from the BTC Broker's website and deleted my account. Good bye, big brother  I was wondering about what you said earlier: [...]
The Trezor Safe 3 looks good as a non-EU based ledger replacement.
[...]
Why are you saying that it's non-EU-based? From what I know, SatoshiLabs are based in the Czech Republic (an EU country). Sorry if I'm missing something... |
|
|
|
Like clockwork.
Ready Land the chopper.
Surprise, surprise  Anticipation of this move already seen yesterday. Thanks for your comment about Trezor, by the way  No probs. Will let you know more when I get it. They're currently overloaded with orders. Hopefully this week or the next. Edit: re. the pullback from $80k, anything can happen, but now we have the ETFs (i.o.w., "this time is different"). As if anything is ever the same with Bitcoin... Life's good. We're blessed. Enjoy it. |
|
|
|
|
Like clockwork.
Ready Land the chopper!
|
|
|
|
By the looks of it: AYH in the morning, ATH in the weekend.  |
|
|
|
Following the news on the EU anti money laundering and anti terrorism financing laws, effectively in place from 30th dec. 2024, i have to say good bye to my Ledger Nano and EU based Crypto broker. I don't use EU regulated exchanges, so no problem there, but attacking privacy of self custody wallets is a no-no-no-no-no!
The broker isn't a problem, because i can DCA via exchange, though less comfortably.
The Trezor Safe 3 looks good as a non-EU based ledger replacement.
OpSec trigger warning:
Who of you is actually already using it, and would you recommend it for cold/hot storage or both?
EDIT: Feels like we may get a Weekend-pump tonight. SOMA.
Not exactly an answer to your question, but it just so happens that I ordered a Trezor Safe 3 a few days ago! I gifted my old Trezor One to my nephew (a new coiner), so I opted for the Trezor Safe 3 as an upgrade. I've never had any issues with the Trezor One, it's been nothing but flawless in its handling of my Bitcoin stash, which now only lives on a piece of paper, until I receive my Trezor Safe 3 and give it a new, safe home. I've used the Trezor One for cold storage only, but I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be useful as a hot storage device too. The ability to use a passphrase together with the seed words gives you the extremely convenient feature that you can literally have an infinite number of wallets, each with its own, extremely secure (it you choose it correctly) passphrase, all readily accessible via the same user interface, and all stemming from the same 12-/24-word seed that you have backed up (or will back up) securely only once, preferably in multiple places. A concern, for some, regarding the Trezor Safe 3, is the inclusion of a Secure Element chip inside it, which could potentially spoil the open-source nature of the device's f/w. SatoshiLabs claim that this is not the case, as they have made sure they are not limited by NDAs or other contracts to not disclose the particulars of that chip, so I would consider it a bonus compared to the Trezor One. The inclusion of the Secure Element chip, among other things, enables the use of a very secure device authenticity verification procedure, when you first set up your device, thus protecting you from receiving a tampered/hacked device. The Trezor Safe 3 also offers a more modern user interface, and the ability to enter the PIN and passphrase using the device only, instead of the PC, as is needed in the Trezor One (which still does it securely, but not as much as the Trezor Safe 3). I've not used it yet, but based on my research, I'm confident that the Trezor Safe 3 will serve you well as a cold/hot storage h/w wallet. |
|
|
|
Bitcoin could will break ATH upcoming week.  FTFY! |
|
|
|
Michael Saylor can talk about Bitcoin the whole day and one can keep listening to him. This guy steals your attention while he speaks. " One day I believe Apple, Microsoft and Google they will all integrate Bitcoin and Layer 2 protocols like lightning into there phones, into there computers, into there web services, into there cloud services ... " ...their phones ...their computers ...their web services ...their cloud services There. Fixed it. jbreher would be proud. (...and the necessary OCD FTFY on your quoted post above.) |
|
|
|
|
Chart Buddy slappin'.
Will Smith vs. AI bot.
He don't stand a chance!
Saylor buys again...
How many coins are enough?
You greedy bastard!
Fast trains and rockets.
Not even Musk can compete.
Faster-than-light speed!
Apple Watch or Gear,
No watch is ever complete,
Without the Chopper!
PlanB chart revived.
First red dot showing the way,
To nine hundred k!
Shuriken timer?
Looks like a blender to me.
Careful with that thing!
What an awesome week!
10k up since last Sunday.
Way to go, Bitcoin!
#7wodigestsundayhaikus
|
|
|
|
Anytime kids.... 60k?  FTFY!  |
|
|
|
Everybody buys Bitcoin at the price they deserve.TMWhy do I sense ATH will come B4 the 1/2ing? 
|
|
|
|
Nice, gradual rise towards $52k I see. 15-min chart looks beautiful.
NOW 15-min is beautiful. Too right! Looks like the chopper's going to vroom vroom again soon. READY THE CHOPPER |
|
|
|
Quiet at The Wall... What could it possibly mean? Calm before the storm? Glass vs. plastic... Container ain't the problem, When drinking poison! Sam Bankman-Fried jailed. He looks sexy in those pants.Careful with that soap... ECB gone nuts, Claiming that Bitcoin has failed. How low can they stoop? Craig Wright on trial. His White Paper forgery, Out, animated!Bored CAM programmer. Tool paths turned to shurikens!Katanas are next. Did you say "crypto"? Take your Batslap like a man, Or be gone, you fool! #7wodigestsundayhaikus |
|
|
|
|
Nice, gradual rise towards $52k I see. 15-min chart looks beautiful.
Weather is brilliant, almost like summer.
Going out to enjoy a few km of running.
I hope I see green when I'm back.
|
|
|
|
^ You guys over complicate things. A simpler math (for US only): FU status=$2mil in cash. Long term cap gains are 23.8 % in US, maximum, so you would need to produce about $2.56 mil in profit from a sale (I tried to account for 0-89.25K 0% tax, 89.25-250K 15% tax no NIIT, 250K-553.8K 15% tax+3.8% NIIT and above 553.8K-20% tax+3.8% NIIT; all for married, filed jointly). If, for an argument's sake, your cost is very low, then you'll need about 50 BTC to sell in order to achieve the FU status in about an hour using bitcoin alone (with taxes all accounted for). Adjust 50btc to a higher number if your cost is much higher, like above 5K (every 5K increase in your cost= about 10% increase in the number over 50BTC to achieve bitcoin- only fu status; example-if your cost was 20K, then you'll "need" to sell about 81 btc right now to almost insta-achieve fu status by bitcoin alone). Just look at the spot, where you can sell right now, not some fancy 200WMA. The spot is where you would be selling in case of a need to cash out to achieve fu or to buy something substantial, like a nice house, a small ranch or a lake . Well, each one is different. In the end, whatever suits each one of us is the best strategy. As for selling, are you sure you want to park $2M of fiat in a bank account in one sell? Don't you want to shave off small amounts from your stash as and when required? A "buy when you can, sell when you must" approach. Unless you intend to buy something big, like a million-dollar house, etc. In that case, are $2M enough for f.u. status for you? This is not meant to be a "per year" amount, but a "lifetime" amount. Just saying... |
|
|
|
[...] It makes some sense, but it still remains troubling for this here cat. Thanks for your comments (edited out for brevity, post header links above for details). I know that my approach is "non-standard" and I can assure you that I'm not blindly applying it without looking into the context of the current Bitcoin moves and developments. This is just a fun experiment for me, to see how things play out, based on different metrics that we devise and compare with. As I've stated numerous times, the 200 WMA is my favorite indicator as far as the overall trend is concerned, and will likely continue to be, unless some extreme event happens, which completely invalidates the status quo (a.k.a. Bitcoin cycle periodicity and the happenings within each period). The new ETF players, increased adoption and regulation, as well as the reduced production or new coins due to the halvings, could affect said periodicity and what it entails, in semi-unforeseeable ways. IOW, there's no such thing as a Crystal Ball TM, but there is math & science (hence the "semi-" above). Re. the 2017 cycle peak, my f.u. status requirement was 509 BTC vs. 1658 BTC (using 200 WMA), which does break my conservative claim, and this can also be deduced by considering the difference between spot peak and 200 WMA, which was around 16x at that time (compare this with my approach's fixed 5x cushion). The main difference is that my 5x cushion stays fixed, whereas the difference between spot peak and 200 WMA tends to get reduced after each cycle, thus reducing the cushion and making my approach more conservative as we go into the future. As for f.u. status, many of us have achieved it, or not, depending on the chosen metric, as well as country of residence, desired standard of living, LHB wants/needs, etc. The more conservative the metric (even if it is non-standard, inaccurate, or even looney, as you put it), the more secure one's f.u. status becomes. I wouldn't want to have my standard of living (assuming it is, or will soon be, mostly Bitcoin-dependent) be based on some borderline f.u. status predictor, which could fail whenever Warren Buffett decides to say something wise of whenever some curly-haired, crazy CEO decides to go Bernie Madoff on his customers. Not saying the 200 WMA is a borderline f.u. status predictor, just talking generally here. In some sense, all our efforts to predict Bitcoin's value and future status could be moot, when we consider the possibility of Bitcoin eventually dominating the entire world monetary system, thus confirming the "0.21 BTC is enough" YouTube video recommendations, which used to be "2.1 BTC is enough", or "21 BTC is enough", a.k.a. One in a Million, if you go way back. Notice how the "sufficient" BTC amount is divided by 10 (an order of magnitude) as we move into the future. As many WOers would say: 1 BTC = 1 BTC. Just make sure you own some. |
|
|
|
another sunday
nice and flat at 50k
how long will we stay
Not too long, it seems. Bitcoin does what Bitcoin does... 5-min is so green! |
|
|
|
Funny that Bitcoin is also a cryptocurrency.
Humans are animals too. |
|
|
|
It is seeming difficult to imagine the BTC price staying below $100k until mid year... but sure, anything can happen, it just seems that ongoing UPPity BTC price pressures are ongoing, continuous and persistent.. and so who is going to keep selling them the coins? Sure people are going to sell, but are there going to be as many sellers as buyers, and even in an ongoing way? I have my doubts.
I agree with you that it is going to cross $100k by the middle of this year, not only that but I think it will break all the previous records this time, if that happens then many people will become millionaires very easily. Be careful in measuring millionaire status by the BTC spot price - and surely at some point $100k is also going to end up being a bottom and that BTC prices will not ever go below that point again, yet it is hard to consider yourself millionaire status if you are merely measuring from spot price changes in BTC, unless you sell your BTC .. and should any of us be considering that? On the other hand, if you are considering your BTC valuation in terms of bottoms rather than tops, then that is more conducive to a millionaire status kind of thinking.. or maybe you could end up doing something like AlcoHoDL, even though it did not really seem to make as much sense on the first few rolls that he said it, yet in his case, if he was wanting to think of his lil selfie as millionaire status, then he would need to reach 5x that amount to then rest assured that he reached millionaire status.. .. so he is using the top to measure his status, but he is not resting assured until the spot price is 5x the threshold.. .. which still seems a bit crazy.. but it is kind of presuming the odds of greater than an 80% correction are not very great.. which probably would be true.So hopefully if you are considering $100k as millionaire status then you have something closer to 50 BTC rather than 10 BTC.. even though surely we could still feel good to be millionaire on paper if we are thinking that we are not going to be selling in order to lock in our status (which may well not be a good idea). I am much more comfortable using the 200-WMA as my measure of BTC value... yet at the same time, it is not likely to be moving up very much merely if BTC's spot price ends up making it to $100k by the middle of this year or even somewhere in that ballpark.. give or take 3-6 months. Right now with current BTC price dynamics of the last 200 weeks and especially including our last few months, we are ontrack to get most-likely scenarios of anywhere between around an 18% to 22% increase in the 200-WMA for this latest 6-month period that ends in the end of May, even though my entry-level fuck you status chart had ONLY projected it as 16%... so whatever, I am likely going to adjust my projections a wee bit in order to account for that.... but it feels a bit dirty.. .. and maybe I can just change each of the next 3 to be in the 20% arena (even though I initially projected 16%-ish), but then once I do that, then I start to feel tempted to change the percentage increase expectations further down the line.. so it just feels a bit awkward, and PlanB gets accused of the same kind of science in which he is continuing to make adjustments to his model based on current events.. and I don't personally have any problem with that.. since I am trying to project into the future based on present facts. and those present facts change and they also seem to change the future projections. .and maybe a bit of tweaking every 6 months in order to attempt to account for what the last 6 months did would be in some kind of order and good (best) practices. This is a fair explanation of my approach. After posting my last week's Sunday Haikus, I felt the need to clarify things a little bit, because simply saying "5x spot price" seems a bit misleading to someone who doesn't know the details. Basically, my approach takes the most recent cycle spot peak price, calculates the BTC needed for $2M fuck you status and multiplies that BTC amount by 5. The resulting BTC amount then stays fixed for 4 years, until the next cycle peak. So, for example, the last spot peak price (@ late-2021) was $69k, so my current f.u. status calculation is as follows: $2M / $69k = 29 BTC My current f.u. status: 29 x 5 = 145 BTC (since late-2021 and staying fixed until late-2025) Assuming an upcoming peak of $200k (likely @ late-2025), my new, updated f.u. status would drop to ($2M / $200k) x 5 = 10 BTC x 5 = 50 BTC (will stay fixed until late-2029). It's like having a f.u. status threshold of $10M and applying it to the cycle spot peak price, forming a staircase with 4-years per step (similar to PlanB's S2F charts). OTOH, the current f.u. status based on the 200 WMA (currently @ $31k) would be as follows: $2M / $31k = 65 BTCThe 200 WMA is undoubtedly a more stable, more "math & science" f.u. status estimation approach, but seems a bit over-optimistic to me. As things currently stand, I don't think 65 BTC is a sufficiently realistic f.u. status amount, as compared to 145 BTC which gives me a nice 2x cushion vs. the 200 WMA approach. By the time spot price reaches $200k, the 200 WMA will likely have reached $50k, so there will be a 50 BTC vs. 40 BTC amount for f.u. status at that time, thus making my approach more conservative overall. I know that this comes from my own conservative nature, and I don't claim that my approach is better. It just suits my own conservative style of doing things. Also, if you compare the above with your entry-level fuck you status chart, you will see that our calculations/estimations follow the same trend at the 4-year peak times (145 vs. 112 BTC @ late-2021 and 50 vs. 37 BTC @ late-2025), with my numbers on the more conservative side, and with the major difference that I keep the f.u. status BTC amount fixed between spot peaks, whereas you are reducing it every 6 months. This makes my approach even more conservative as we go deep into each cycle. I hope the above text spaghetti makes some sense... |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
