I believe 10 million is a very conservative estimate.
So you think the total value of all bitcoins reaching the total worldwide household wealth is 'conservative'? I think Hal was trying to estimate the upper limit for btc price. I believe that within 30 years bitcoin will be worth around 1billion USD in todays money.
So the total value of all bitcoins would be... 100x of worldwide wealth? Yes, world wide wealth is a very sucky indicator. Wealth is unevenly distributed, all it takes is for the wealthy to buy all the bitcoin they can, and the price will surge well above the "total wealth of the world" To be clearer, bitcoin is a commodity, the price is set by supply and demand. The price of a single bitcoin has nothing to do with the total world wealth, just like the price of a barrel of oil or a Rolls Royce has nothing to do with total world wealth. Edited. Yes, but all those Bitcoins will be owned by people... Won't they then be part of the "total wealth of the world" by definition? I don't know, I don't know where Hal got his numbers from and if those numbers included commodities owned or if it was just fiat money owned. I think Hal was suggesting a price of $10M / BTC. That's well within the "total wealth of the world". It's your $1B / BTC prediction that's going way overboard... Unless you mean that USD will be so devalued by that time, that it will be worth a tiny fraction of today's USD worth. Which means that using USD to measure BTC value may not be a good indicator. You don't understand, the price of a commodity has nothing to do with the total wealth of the world, they are two separate things. My prediction is no more overboard then 1100 USD was in 2011 or 20000 USD was in 2015, but time will tell, its just an educated guess. The only way I see your " $1B / BTC in 2050" prediction coming true is if the Fed's money printers go real brrrrrrrrrr!Why? Do you think all demand will dry up when we hit 10 mil? The only way we will stop at 10 mil is if everybody in the whole world has adopted bitcoin at that point and the price is now stable. I very much doubt that. So, you're saying that we'll stop at $10M / BTC if worldwide Bitcoin adoption is 100%, but we can go 100x (at $1B / BTC) if worldwide Bitcoin adoption is less than 100%? I'm clearly not understanding something here... Edit: I guess what you mean is that there will come a time when BTC coins will be seen as extremely rare objects of desire, much like Leonardo da Vinci's Mona Lisa, so the price can be set arbitrarily high. Well, there is only one Mona Lisa, but millions of BTC... I don't think Mona Lisa's price would be the same if there were 18 million identical Mona Lisas available. Supply & demand. In any case, $10M / BTC is already beyond most HoDLers' wildest expectations, and I would prefer a worldwide adoption approaching 100%, which gives HoDLers safety, as well as wealth. |
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I believe 10 million is a very conservative estimate.
So you think the total value of all bitcoins reaching the total worldwide household wealth is 'conservative'? I think Hal was trying to estimate the upper limit for btc price. I believe that within 30 years bitcoin will be worth around 1billion USD in todays money.
So the total value of all bitcoins would be... 100x of worldwide wealth? Yes, world wide wealth is a very sucky indicator. Wealth is unevenly distributed, all it takes is for the wealthy to buy all the bitcoin they can, and the price will surge well above the "total wealth of the world" To be clearer, bitcoin is a commodity, the price is set by supply and demand. The price of a single bitcoin has nothing to do with the total world wealth, just like the price of a barrel of oil or a Rolls Royce has nothing to do with total world wealth. Edited. Yes, but all those Bitcoins will be owned by people... Won't they then be part of the "total wealth of the world" by definition? I don't know, I don't know where Hal got his numbers from and if those numbers included commodities owned or if it was just fiat money owned. I think Hal was suggesting a price of $10M / BTC. That's well within the "total wealth of the world". It's your $1B / BTC prediction that's going way overboard... Unless you mean that USD will be so devalued by that time, that it will be worth a tiny fraction of today's USD worth. Which means that using USD to measure BTC value may not be a good indicator. You don't understand, the price of a commodity has nothing to do with the total wealth of the world, they are two separate things. My prediction is no more overboard then 1100 USD was in 2011 or 20000 USD was in 2015, but time will tell, its just an educated guess. The only way I see your " $1B / BTC in 2050" prediction coming true is if the Fed's money printers go real brrrrrrrrrr!Edit: And, of course, I'm talking about 2050's money, not today's money. "$1B / BTC in today's money" is just insane, at least the way I understand it (and the way Hal understood it when he made that post, I think). |
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I believe 10 million is a very conservative estimate.
So you think the total value of all bitcoins reaching the total worldwide household wealth is 'conservative'? I think Hal was trying to estimate the upper limit for btc price. I believe that within 30 years bitcoin will be worth around 1billion USD in todays money.
So the total value of all bitcoins would be... 100x of worldwide wealth? Yes, world wide wealth is a very sucky indicator. Wealth is unevenly distributed, all it takes is for the wealthy to buy all the bitcoin they can, and the price will surge well above the "total wealth of the world" To be clearer, bitcoin is a commodity, the price is set by supply and demand. The price of a single bitcoin has nothing to do with the total world wealth, just like the price of a barrel of oil or a Rolls Royce has nothing to do with total world wealth. Edited. Yes, but all those Bitcoins will be owned by people... Won't they then be part of the "total wealth of the world" by definition? I don't know, I don't know where Hal got his numbers from and if those numbers included commodities owned or if it was just fiat money owned. I think Hal was suggesting a price of $10M / BTC. That's well within the "total wealth of the world". It's your $1B / BTC prediction that's going way overboard... Unless you mean that USD will be so devalued by that time, that it will be worth a tiny fraction of today's USD worth. Which means that using USD to measure BTC value may not be a good indicator. |
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I believe 10 million is a very conservative estimate.
So you think the total value of all bitcoins reaching the total worldwide household wealth is 'conservative'? I think Hal was trying to estimate the upper limit for btc price. I believe that within 30 years bitcoin will be worth around 1billion USD in todays money.
So the total value of all bitcoins would be... 100x of worldwide wealth? Yes, world wide wealth is a very sucky indicator. Wealth is unevenly distributed, all it takes is for the wealthy to buy all the bitcoin they can, and the price will surge well above the "total wealth of the world" To be clearer, bitcoin is a commodity, the price is set by supply and demand. The price of a single bitcoin has nothing to do with the total world wealth, just like the price of a barrel of oil or a Rolls Royce has nothing to do with total world wealth. Edited. Yes, but all those Bitcoins will be owned by people... Won't they then be part of the "total wealth of the world" by definition? |
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I believe 10 million is a very conservative estimate.
So you think the total value of all bitcoins reaching the total worldwide household wealth is 'conservative'? I think Hal was trying to estimate the upper limit for btc price. I believe that within 30 years bitcoin will be worth around 1billion USD in todays money.
So the total value of all bitcoins would be... 100x of worldwide wealth? I think Bitcoin reaching $1M by 2030 will be a truly life-changing event for most (almost all) of us WOers. This will be "fuck you" richness x10 for most, giving us both wealth and safety. Now, if only it would come by 2025... Dreams, dreams... |
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Interesting talk. Thanks. |
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Thanks. Interesting listen so far. Have never understood the "end of the world but I have gold" argument, certainly not against Bitcoin. If there is a massive cyber attack, you are struggling for food if supermarkets are empty, barbarians roam and run the streets, internet and telephone lines are unavailable, there is no postal service etc Seriously what would be the point in comforting your loved ones in saying: "It's ok my darlings, I have dozens of bars of gold stored away in some random vault in Switzerland. We'll be fine. Just need to figure out a way to get ahold of them. I might try pigeons." Would it help?  From the YouTube comments: "Michael was talking about Bitcoin, Frank was talking about Michael." Will be fun watching this debate 5 years from now... |
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Bitcoin underperforming? Huh?
Greedy much?
Personally, I do not refer to the recent "underperforming" assessments as "greedy" (even though there could be some truth in the "greedy" label) instead of "distracted."**.. **The distraction is by shitcoins, to be more precise... which really seems difficult to help "supposed bitcoiner" who has such difficult times focusing on king daddy bitcoin, even after having supposedly been studying this space for as long as me (more than 7 years) while still cannot help his lil selfie in being distracted by shitcoins.. go figure??? can we help dumb in that kind of presentation?Are they... diversifying? https://youtu.be/zQ60ehVJYAs?t=1031 |
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Bitcoin underperforming? Huh?
Greedy much?
Off for my daily walk, feeling happy and blessed for my "fuck you" wealth, my hard-earned HoDL reward, all thanks to Bitcoin.
Onwards & upwards!
HoDL.
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100k now!
Coz a "fuck you" said at work,
Cannot be unfucked!
#fuckyouhaiku
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No more haikus here
For more than twenty pages
Where has the love gone?
#nohomo
It's not about love.
A WOer's hat sums it up:
"Cocaine and Hookers!"#c&hhaiku |
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Speaking of socialism and all...
"Capitalism gives power to the capable, so that they can rise UP, above the mass average."
"Communism gives power to the incapable, so that they can bring those above them DOWN to their level."
That's what a secondary school teacher once told us in class. I was in my early teens then. I didn't believe him. Now, in my late 40s, I believe he was absolutely right.
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Too many things happening IRL, too little time to properly follow WO. Barely managing to keep up... Re. meat eating, vegans, etc.: Cows are not compatible with eating corn, but corn is being used because it's cheap and abundant. As a result, their stomachs get filled with bacteria and they need to be fed heavy doses of antibiotics to deal with this. Watch Food, Inc. (2008) and be disgusted by it, among other disgusting things. I like eating meat, and believe we, as humans, are designed to eat meat, as well as fruits and vegetables. A balanced diet. Taking one or the other out of our diet is bad for us. This is not a scientific result, just my own opinion based on my own experiences and observations. I have a few vegetarian and vegan friends. I don't know how good or bad their medical exams are, but I do know how they themselves look. They look kind of abnormal (in varying degrees). Some are abnormally thin. Something about them is off. Women are less feminine for some reason. Less attractive (to me at least). Could this be nature's "don't mate with her" defense mechanism? Also, they're often tense and angry, and pick on little things to start arguments. Nothing against them, just my non-scientific observations. I'd say: follow a balanced diet. Meat, fruit, veg. Use free-ranging, naturally fed animal sources from small, local family farms, if possible. Don't go cheap, we are what we eat. Same with fruit/veg. Good, local sources, fresh produce. Avoid processed, packaged food. My grandpa did the above, and lived to be 106 years old (he was fully active at 104). Was born in 1899. |
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Craig Wright, Calvin Ayre... what a bunch of scumbags.
I've never really been a rich person in my entire life, except, perhaps, in the last year, due to Bitcoin's recent price appreciation, which has given me a taste of how it feels to be "well off". Even then, I'm nowhere near the wealth that these guys have. What more do they want? Their future is completely secured, they can sustain their lavish lifestyles forever. Why do they keep fighting Bitcoin? Is it some sort of bad wiring in their brains, or is it a sickness of the rich?
In any case, I hope justice is served and they end up where they belong.
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I think it all depends on what one considers "Bitcoin dust"... For most, this could be < 0.001 BTC. For many it could be < 0.1 BTC, and for some it could be < 1 BTC or even < 10 BTC...
Usually, the term "dust' is used for inputs that lower than (or close to) the fee it takes to send them. I take it that's not the definition you're using  Yes, I did use the term "Bitcoin dust" quite liberally. Perhaps, a more appropriate term would be "change" or "pennies" or any amount one does not care much about, in comparison with their main stash. The few things I regret are some small (at the time) purchases using BTC, which are now worth thousands of USD.
Looking back, I've spent a small fortune on daily items. But I like to think of it this way: the more expensive those expenses get, the more my hodlings increase in value. So I've supported the Bitcoin economy while actually using it as electronic money, and I'm still better off because of the increase. Every time I say that I regret using BTC for purchases, I can't help but feel like I'm "betraying" Bitcoin by not supporting its use as money. Laszlo Hanyecz comes to mind. At the same time, Bitcoin has become so important and so valuable as an asset, that spending it on petty purchases just doesn't feel right anymore. It's like cutting a piece of gold from a gold bar to pay for your weekly supermarket shopping. I'd rather use fiat for that. Perhaps, there may come a time when the mere ownership (and not the spending) of Bitcoin will grant the owner special privileges. Bitcoin is just too precious to spend, unless absolutely necessary. |
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I have some leftover BTC dust in my Kraken account. I've calculated that when BTC price reaches $80k it will be worth exactly my entire fiat investment in Bitcoin. The plan is to sell that dust and get back my entire fiat capital. This will be purely a symbolic move, and a guarantee of always being in profit, regardless of BTC price.
Personally, I am considering taking your statement with a decently-sized grain of salt, AlcoHoDL, in terms of how it may or may not reflect the actual amount of your stash or the actual amount that you may have invested into BTC - as if your numbers were part of a hypothetical, for example.  By the way, I hope that you are not one of those guys who invested a small amount of money into BTC in the beginning, and then you got worried about investing into BTC at higher prices because you had considered that investing more would raise the level of your BTC costs (total amount invested) and the average cost of your BTC… Sure, I do not conclude that you are one of those kinds of guys, but remember we are batting around ideas on a public thread, and I have some concerns about those kinds of guys, especially if they might have an ongoing cashflow and they are worried that they are not getting richie fast enough because they do not have enough BTC… blah blah blah (surely NOT saying that you, AlcoHoDL, are one of those kinds of guys, even though your comment could be erroneously read to be embracing of that kind of investment practices/strategies. Sure, there is some point in time that each of us may well have transitioned from BTC accumulation stage to a BTC maintenance stage and then later to a BTC liquidation stage, and surely none of those are absolutes, but instead are likely on a kind of spectrum, even though there might well be various points on the spectrum that each of us might feel that we have invested enough but as our cashflow might change or other personal factors might change, we might consider moving our lil selfies back to accumulation stage, for example, even if we might have considered that we had moved into mostly maintenance stage. Another factual change could be that we could end up losing part or all of our BTC stash whether sloppily, due to the acts of others or through some forms of negligence (aka an accident), and not wishing these circumstances on anyone, but just saying that changes in circumstances could cause changes in perspective regarding where we are at in terms of BTC accumulation, maintenance and/or liquidation. I think it all depends on what one considers "Bitcoin dust"... For most, this could be < 0.001 BTC. For many it could be < 0.1 BTC, and for some it could be < 1 BTC or even < 10 BTC... As for the amount invested in Bitcoin over the years, sure, I've made some big mistakes, like only investing around $100 on my first BTC purchase (got around 0.5 BTC for that), when I had $10,000 in cash sitting in my desk drawer. Had I invested that amount straight away, I would now have 50 BTC more than I currently have. But, no, I was not worried. I ended up investing that $10,000, and much more, in Bitcoin over the years, and increased my stash, but not as much as I could have. It didn't feel like worrying, but more like being "careful" and "gradual" in my investment moves, rather than throwing everything in straight away. I wish I had done that though. "Early bird" and all that... About the various stages in Bitcoin management, I guess everyone starts with the accumulation stage, which, to me, spanned a number of years, from 2015 up to 2020, with my BTC purchases getting fewer and fewer (but sometimes larger) year by year. As of now, I do not buy BTC regularly, but I do spend my fiat on goods and services that I would not normally be spending on if I didn't own BTC. You see my point? Owning Bitcoin has enabled me to increase my fiat spending on things I want to have/do. There's no point in buying BTC when I will immediately convert back to fiat to buy something. I just buy it directly with fiat, and do not touch my BTC stash. Losing BTC... No, never happened to me. Never lost a single sat. The few things I regret are some small (at the time) purchases using BTC, which are now worth thousands of USD. But I've never lost coins due to an accident, lost keys, etc. Even if BTC goes to zero (I'm being funny now...), I will still have my entire fiat investment capital, as if I never got involved in Bitcoin.
I have frequently pondered over those kinds of possible BTC price performance scenarios and how they might end up playing out in terms of my own personal circumstances and anticipated behaviors under such extreme (and seemingly unlikely) scenarios - especially in a kind of scenario in which BTC prices were to keep going down, including not really knowing and/or accepting the reason and actually some factual circumstances that might NOT be completely known by me and/or other normie BTC investors, and then under such cascading DOWNity BTC price movements, I would be continuing to think that this is a good time to buy because the price is lower and lower and lower, I act on those lower price moves (isn’t this feeling like some Bcash shitcoin scenario?), but as I keep buying, the BTC price keeps going lower than it had been and never really meaningfully recovers, even though I had continued to erroneously conclude that the bottom is in. So, there could be BTC price points in which I should stop buying and just save whatever it is that I had already bought.. but in such scenario, I don’t know when to stop buying because I did not get the memo that bitcoin is ded… And sure, along the way, I may have well gotten some enjoyment of the hookers, lambos, and blow, but there may have been some things that are more solid in terms of my past investments that were largely enabled because of my having had been in bitcoin, such as property, or other longer term and non-depreciating investments that I made – and yeah, maybe various steak/lobster dinners could be counted too.. and maybe I did end up accomplishing some diversification (not talking about other cryptos, here.. .because I really doubt that there are any realistic scenarios in which BTC goes to zero but some shitcoin actually prospers (or takes over) in such bitcoin going to zero scenario.. not going to go to that level of nonsense with such hypothetical.. that shitcoiners frequently want to pump such a nonsense scenario).. I very much doubt that BTC will ever drop below $10,000 (208-week MA, which is way higher that my average BTC buying price), let alone go to zero. In that sense, profits are virtually guaranteed. But, there's something psychologically appealing about being able to get back all of my fiat investment capital just by selling some leftover BTC dust that I have sitting unused in my Kraken account, and still be left with my healthy BTC stash, with a 100% certainty of profits (or, at worst, a zero-loss). I'm not saying that I will definitely sell that dust (I probably will not), but I like the feeling of being able to achieve 100% zero-loss certainty just by dusting Kraken and without touching my cold storage. Not sure if I'll go ahead with the above plan though... If it keeps pumping above $80k (which I'm sure it soon will), greed may take over.
Fair enough. Sometimes I feel that I am kind of losing track regarding how much value I may have put into bitcoin (or not) and the various ways that such investment value might be tallied up. With a quickie ballpark guestimation of my BTC holdings, I see that when BTC prices were as high as almost $65k, my investment amount would have been around 1.333% of the value of my total BTC portfolio (kind of cheating in term of how that is counted, exactly.. but whatever.. we are talking about ballparkenings of what is going on in terms of the investment of yours truly). Now, let's say that BTC prices drop down to $47.5k (sure that is the current low within that past 8 hours or so), then my amount invested into BTC ends up going as high as 1.77%.. So around a $17.5k drop in BTC prices does not really seem to create any kind of real large changes in the ratio of how much invested I invested into BTC versus the value of the whole BTC investment portfolio holdings… and therefore the kind of financial and psychological cushion that exists, even with what appears to be about a 27% BTC price drop from about $65k to $27.5k (so far). I do recall that in December 2018, BTC prices got down to about $3,124, and so at that time, the amount that I had invested into bitcoin was about 26% of the value of the whole BTC investment portfolio, so the move up from $3,124 to $47.5k seems to have made a pretty BIG difference percentage wise, and the correction from nearly $65k to $47.5k did not make a very BIG difference percentage wise… - but I am not going to deny that the numbers still look decently BIGgily with a $17.5k price drop – Still a little bit more difficult to get worried about the whole matter as compared to if the BTC prices were to go way down, including if they were to start to get close to the 4 digits.. or even start to approach $20k-ish (seems quite doubtful.. but you never know). If we were to end up going down to something close to $20k, then my amount invested would end up constituting around 3.6% of the total value of my BTC investment.. The number would be getting BIGGER, but still seems to show that there is a considerable cushion for longer term BTC HODLers, even when BTC prices seem to be dropping outrageously – especially for those with larger average costs per BTC. From these kinds of examples, some later BTC adopting peeps probably are realizing that the longer that a person is in the bitcoin accumulation and HODLing practices, the less bothered such OG HODLers inevitably seems to be affected by BTC price changes (whether corrections or even BTC price appreciations) that are more worrisome for the later adopters. "Cushion" is the key word here. I fully agree, the longer one accumulates and HoDLs BTC, the softer that cushion becomes, almost to the point of enjoying bouncing up and down like a trampoline. Price drops, even big ones, do not cause fear, stress or uncertainty anymore. They could affect some planning and major life decisions, such as the size of the lake to buy, or when to say the final "fuck you" at work, etc., etc., but they will never really worry us too much, to the point of mindrusting some/all of our stash away, or not accumulating when we can. During such times (price now may feel that way to some), newbies and weak hands tend to want to sell, but hardened HoDLers buy and/or HoDL, because we've already been through such times. 2014, 2018-20, tough shit. Would a 27% drop scare us? Hell no! But I will definitely sell some of that dust amount, just for fun reasons (cocaine, hookers and related items of debauchery & pleasure).
Overall you are not going to get any argument from me, whether some of your skimming off is merely for funzies, or symbolic because I surely do subscribe to variations of profit taking along the way, whether you start slowly at 2x, 10x or 50x or if you wait for some higher number, there is a point that it is reasonable to shave off some profits along the way in my thinkenings.. especially, let’s say for example, you have around a $1k per BTC cost per investment, and maybe that were to constitute a modest 1% to 5% of your total investment portfolio at the time that you had achieved such $1k cost per BTC, and if the BTC price goes up to your number of $80k, then your BTC value has likely dwarfed your various other holdings, whether stocks, bonds, PMs, properties, blah blah blah. So instead of being 1% to 5%of your total investment portfolio, your BTC holdings are surely in a kind of 90% to 95% range, and shaving off a few percent here or there is not really going to diminish your BTC holdings in any kind of meaningful sense, even though you largely may have ended up cashing out an amount that adds up to your initial investment value (or even more than that initial investment value amount). Can't disagree with the above. I'm now almost all-in on Bitcoin (I was not initially, but Bitcoin took care of that, with its price appreciation over the years). I do keep a healthy amount of fiat stashed somewhere, to sustain me for several years, as a backup plan, but this is dwarfed by my corn side of things, even at $49k (or $39k, or $29k, or...). As for spending BTC, it's not an easy thing to spend probably the single most important and valuable monetary asset in the history of mankind. I'm just using my monthly fiat income more liberally, and if at some point that's not enough, I'll be skimming some of the corn, but only when necessary. 1 BTC = 1 BTC only if you own BTC. Edit: Fixed typos. |
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True! We are still millionairs right  It's just so hard to take profits. I never took any profit in the last 8 years. And it's always this greedy thinking "what if I take profits and we go higher...". I bet many here are trapped in this swampy thinking as well no? My first goal was to take profits at 40k. Then I Moved it to 50k. Then I said ok 60k for sure. And so on... Now I say ok 95k. I have some leftover BTC dust in my Kraken account. I've calculated that when BTC price reaches $80k it will be worth exactly my entire fiat investment in Bitcoin. The plan is to sell that dust and get back my entire fiat capital. This will be purely a symbolic move, and a guarantee of always being in profit, regardless of BTC price. Even if BTC goes to zero (I'm being funny now...), I will still have my entire fiat investment capital, as if I never got involved in Bitcoin. Not sure if I'll go ahead with the above plan though... If it keeps pumping above $80k (which I'm sure it soon will), greed may take over. But I will definitely sell some of that dust amount, just for fun reasons ( cocaine, hookers and related items of debauchery & pleasure). |
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