|
So last night I'm in the home cinema room watching a movie and I open a bag of Jack Link's Beef Jerky to eat while watching. First time to try it, it's an American thing, not found where I live, had to specially order it. Room was dark, saw a little bag inside it, and thought it was some kind of seasoning (maybe salt or pepper). So I open the little bag and spread the contents over the pieces of meat. I ate everything, it was delicious. Guess what: this morning I realised that the little bag said DO NOT EAT outside it. Fcuk! It was something called "oxygen absorber", supposedly to keep the meat fresh. Lesson learned: always read the label before you eat (do) something. I'm still alive (for now)!
As for Elon, I think he has sold already. It doesn't make sense to HoDL and act the way he did (and still does). Maybe the earlier dip we had before the recent bigger one was him selling? Anyways, I'm not so good at this sort of thing, it makes Bitcoin seem like stocks and shares, which I absolutely hate. Of course, I haven't sold a sat, and even thinking of BTFD. In any case, Elon will soon be forgotten, and Bitcoin will resume its upward trend again, as it has done so many times before. Silk Road, MtGox, forkenings, China bans, ETF rejections, mempool spamming, CSW/Ayre/Wu/Ver attacks, you name it, Bitcoin has always chewed them up and spat them out, and so it will do to Elon.
Let's wait until this thing settles. Maybe there are things at play we don't yet know...
|
|
|
|
Look at the historical values. Bitcoin does everything: from Extreme Greed to Extreme Fear!   |
|
|
|
Judging from the recent WO posts, I think a pump may be coming.
There has always been an increase in WO trollery and shitcoinery before a big pump.
No, this was it. Back to ramen and accumulation mode again. See you in four years. Did it help?In four years' time we'll be visiting Bob for the $1M party. He won't be worried about OPSEC, by then his private army will be fully armed and ready to take down the bad guys. Arrie will join in with his weapons skills and help protect the ranch from enemy aircraft and drones. There'll be an abundance of fresh hookers, straight from the factory (Jimbo knows). Jay will be doing the security checks. No sir, you won't be entering the ranch without Jay's approval. And don't you dare bring any DOGE or other cryptocurrency shit with you, or JSRAW will be giving you his nasty batslap treatment until you convert it all to KingDaddyCoin (6 confirmations minimum, so be prepared). As for blow, weed, mushrooms and stuff, I'll leave that to the WO resident experts on the matter (you know who you are). We are family, we are united, we are invincible, and we kick ass. UBUNTU! In the meantime, full ramen diet and stacking as many sats as we can. |
|
|
|
|
Judging from the recent WO posts, I think a pump may be coming.
There has always been an increase in WO trollery and shitcoinery before a big pump.
|
|
|
|
The situation is getting out of control.  EDIT: Not around much lately. Too busy building A GODDAMN FUCKING RANCH! WOOO!!! EDIT2: "Yeee-hawww!" Yeah, there's the ranch thing... Hope it's coming along nicely. But man, don't abandon WO, we need a bit of degeneracy every now and then. Sheeeit! |
|
|
|
Can i get a Bitcoin or Two? .. bc1qrswzqsh0wwql24x8l56r89n4hslapshcgpeern Or three? Since 3 6 9 is the fundamental of Life.. so it would be cool to get the base of it  ye ye i know i know.. beggar and all that stuff, but we need them  Maybe i become a BTC Maxi who knows xD... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccJYLddo4YMI really liked that Ubuntu post above, everyone gathered together, their feet touching each other (must be my feet fetish). It's so sweet, one for all, all for one, and all that. Except Bitcoin, and the world at large, doesn't work like that. Where I come from, there's a saying that's often used for beggars: "Get on your bike." There's no free lunch. The smartest thing to do right now (and ever) is to HoDL our BTC and not even use them for things we may actually want to buy. And you're asking for donations? Don't you know nuttin'? Jay told you what you should have done if you were smart enough to see where things are going. Now you're hoping some super big whale sees your post and sends you 3 BTC for the lulz. Well, the lulz are on you, so get on your bike and start stacking sats. Because if you don't, I can see you in 10 years from now crying like a little girl when you read these posts. Re-quoting this great tweet: Tomorrow is 10-year anniversary of this famous twit:  From $8 to where we are now in 10 years... |
|
|
|
|
40k barrier broken for the third time on the 1H chart (soon after $50k got broken). Looks like there will be a DOWNity (for ants) before the big UPpity resumes before the end of May, taking us to a new ATH. Yes, I know this post is dumb and doesn't say much...
Where's Bob?
|
|
|
|
You know...
[...]
Take my last 2 merits. Great post. |
|
|
|
I'm quite surprised by recent developments regarding Elon Musk's support of DOGE. I don't know if this is part of a deeper plan, or just a symptom of a billionaire's Asperger syndrome. Contrary to most opinions here, I still admire him for his Tesla and SpaceX work. It doesn't make much sense to me, for him to act the way he did recently, although naming his child X Ζ A-12 did raise a few flags. Who knows, maybe there are things at play here that we are not aware of. The coming weeks and months will be very interesting. Now, suppose Elon just wants to maximise his wealth, and knows that his tweets can cause such havoc. Isn't it obvious that he would be tempted to play the market the way he did? It's all nice and good to have high morals and "do the right thing", but when potential $billion profits are at stake, then everything becomes fair game. Regardless of Elon's narcissism, Asperger's, sociopathy, greed, or whatever else is in his brain, this experiment just shows how easy it is to manipulate the cryptocurrency market, and even King Daddy can be affected. I don't like it, but that's how things work for now. I'm not worried about Bitcoin's long-term performance, I'm fairly certain that this is just an outlier on the steady upward trend that's going to continue for a very long time. Glitches like Elon's just delay the inevitable by a few months. So be it. In the end, it will all be better for Bitcoin. I see this as part of a great test, and so far Bitcoin is the clear winner. Let Elon do his thing, there's nothing to worry about. Just another soon-to-be-added Bitcoin Obituary. This is fine. HoDL. |
|
|
|
$65,000. Because King Daddy chews Teslas and spits hookers 'n' blow. Many thanks to The Dude for another great game! |
|
|
|
|
I call this The HoDLer's Test.
If you are not worried right now, and even make fun of it, well done, you are a seasoned, hardened, true HoDLer.
Whoever logged in to an exchange right now, with the intention to sell, don't forget your pacifier and diapers, and avoid light-colored pants. You are a sissy-ass HoDLer, soon to be parted from your corn.
Or course there will be an ATH, and sooner than some think. This is just an outlier, a glitch that will once again prove the robustness of Bitcoin.
One more obituary added. Been there, done that.
|
|
|
|
|
For a moment I wondered whether Elon's tweet was real or not...
Is he smoking that battery acid again?
Edit: Wow, guys! $50k lost in an instant! What's happening?
|
|
|
|
BTW, AlcoHoDL...
100% per year = 2x per year.
200% per year = 3x per year.
Man, how did I miss this? Thanks for point it out. Original post updated. Saylor's numbers looked a bit too high, but I guess the bull in me wanted them to be so... Now they make more sense: Saylor's 200% up (3x) yearly growth prediction goes like this:
End of:
2020 $30k
2021 $90k
2022 $270k
2023 $810k
2024 $2.4M <--- sat/’ parity (1 BTC = $1M) by early 2024
2025 $7.3M
2026 $22M
|
|
|
|
'Doubling yearly' sounds good. I'm OK with that. Doubling every year (100% up) is not only good, it's excellent. It may seem a little bearish for 2021, but it's a great performance in the long run, and one I'm also perfectly OK with: End of: 2020 $30k 2021 $60k 2022 $120k 2023 $240k 2024 $480k 2025 $960k <--- sat/’ parity (1 BTC = $1M) by end of 20252026 $1.9M This is half of Saylor's 200% up (3x) yearly growth prediction, which goes like this: End of: 2020 $30k 2021 $90k 2022 $270k 2023 $810k 2024 $2.4M <--- sat/’ parity (1 BTC = $1M) by early 20242025 $7.3M 2026 $22M I don't really believe in steady progressions like either one of the above. The reality will be much more unpredictable, but it is near-certain that the trend will be positive. I'm expecting to see 6-figure prices this year, and sat/’ parity (1 BTC = $1M) by 2024/2025, complete with the usual and expected pumps 'n' dumps. Guaranteed $1M+/coin prices that one can depend on should take a little bit more time, but we'll get there. HoDL.Edit: Corrected typo.Edit 2: Corrected wrong numbers in Saylor's case: 200% growth = 4x 3x growth! Thanks Phil_S. |
|
|
|
|
Congrats to Phil_S for a well-deserved rank-up. Only just noticed.
Far too busy IRL. This is getting serious. Flicking the fuck-you switch? My finger is itching... Paraphrasing Steve Jobs:
"When you visit The Wall ObserverTM and you realise that there are at least 10 pages of unread posts, the you know it's time to change something in your life."
Last week I managed to turn my nocoiner cousin into a coiner! A real one (of Bitcoin)! 0.1 BTC. Not too bad. He is quite well-off financially, he could buy a few whole coins right now if he wanted. He says he will. I hope he does, because soon he may not be able to.
Sideways, sideways, number go down, number go down, little ant-pumping, sideways... Boring as fcuk. Come on, Bitcoin do something!
Legitimate/illegitimate coins. What's that? Is there some higher authority I'm not aware of, that determines which coin is legitimate and which isn't? All coins are legitimate. Even BCH/BSV. It's not about being legitimate or not (whatever that means), it's about usefulness, robustness, utility, decentralization, adoption, etc., etc. Let the strongest survive. In a way I'm glad Elon is pumping DOGE. Bitcoin should be strong enough to not be affected by such actions. If it is affected, that's Bitcoin's weakness. Elon can do whatever he wants. It shouldn't matter in the long run.
As for labels, I'm definitely suffering from OCD. Not diagnosed, but can feel it. I'm a perfectionist. And I like it. I wish more people were like this. I don't want to be cured. I consider it a gift/talent, and it is the driving force that enables me to be creative and successful. So, I say, fcuk labels.
Onwards & upwards, and may we see an ATH in May (!), and $100k in 2021.
HoDL.
|
|
|
|
|
What stop-loss? I just HoDL and enjoy the show. It will be fun reading the above comments this time next year.
As for "dodge" owners, I hope you enjoy your new pet dog, it sure looks great, but won't protect you, won't play with you, and worst of all, it shits a lot and you'll be left taking care of the mess... Good luck.
HoDL BTC.
|
|
|
|
Paraphrasing: "I'd rather put my eggs in ONE basket that I fully control, than in TEN baskets that others control."Translating: "Buy Bitcoin." |
|
|
|
Off-topic (but see below) interview recommendation: Soft White Underbelly: Escort Interview FrenchieFeature-length, and a great watch, she's a great story teller for sure. She's a coiner too! Notice near the end ( 1:30:34), when she mentions how one of her clients, a millionaire, "helps her with her Bitcoins!" He probably introduced her to Bitcoin and is helping her manage her coins. I can't help but wonder if he's a WOer... LOL! Some may find the above link distasteful, or even insulting, but I urge you to put your prejudices aside and watch the interview in its entirety. It's an entertaining and quite a didactic experience. |
|
|
|
I believe 10 million is a very conservative estimate.
So you think the total value of all bitcoins reaching the total worldwide household wealth is 'conservative'? I think Hal was trying to estimate the upper limit for btc price. We should not be ascribing sorcery status to anyone, even smart peeps (whether Hal or Satoshi or whoever), especially for things that they said in early 2009 when bitcoin was merely just getting off the ground. They are giving broad and overview ideas, but they cannot really know some of the specific branches that might grow in the future or even some specific attributes that might get incorporated into main aspects of the tree. Accordingly, I would suspect that Hal was attempting to give a ballpark figure of various aspects of what he understood to have been then storage of wealth and monies.. so I doubt that it necessarily accounts for some various kinds of innovative storage of wealth and monies (even if they might remain a relatively smaller component), and I would think that his ballparking was based on 2009 valuations - so inflation would surely affect his figure - $10million today is not what $10million was in 2009, and likely $10million in 10 to 30 years from now is likely going to be considerably degraded based con what we currently see happening (and doubts about whether there are desires (or will develop desires) within traditional systems to reign in aspects of the ongoing denigration of the dollar to allow it to continue to survive - if that is even possible). I believe that within 30 years bitcoin will be worth around 1billion USD in todays money.
So the total value of all bitcoins would be... 100x of worldwide wealth? Seems that Arriemoller is accounting for ongoing denigration of the dollar - so maybe $10million and $1billion will be the same? hahahahahaha.. but I see your point, Phil_S.. Arriemoller does seem to have lost some degree of tether (not the currency) to reality, which is not really unusual for him (based on his post history), for whatever that's worth.. I believe 10 million is a very conservative estimate.
So you think the total value of all bitcoins reaching the total worldwide household wealth is 'conservative'? I think Hal was trying to estimate the upper limit for btc price. I believe that within 30 years bitcoin will be worth around 1billion USD in todays money.
So the total value of all bitcoins would be... 100x of worldwide wealth? I think Bitcoin reaching $1M by 2030 will be a truly life-changing event for most (almost all) of us WOers. This will be "fuck you" richness x10 for most, giving us both wealth and safety. Now, if only it would come by 2025... Dreams, dreams... Huh? Why you so bearish AlcoHoDL?  Historically, we have had in the ballpark of 80x to 150x for each of the 4 year cycles (referring to 2011 150x(+) (maybe does not count), 2013 = 100x, 2017 = 80x, and 2021 so far = 16x).** Of course, with decreasing multiples with the passage of time, but still, even if there are far from any guarantees, why would we be expecting outrageous curtailment of the upward leg of the s-curve. It's like you are prematurely suggesting that we are getting to the flat portion of the s-curve. Yeah.. I know that there is no guarantees, but why presume that we are at the top of the s-curve without any real or meaningful evidence of such? **By the way, to some degree, I can appreciate criticisms that my numbers are a bit loosey goosey, but I give few fucks, because I believe that my numbers are largely fair and reasonable because they attempt to go off of reasonable floor starting points for each cycle to provide estimates for the top of each of the previous cycles, the current cycle and attempting to project where future cycles may well go (without guarantees, of course). So, if we concede that $64,895 is the top of this cycle at 16x, then maybe we get to your numbers of $1million by 2030, but it seems quite reasonable that this cycle is not over and it is NOT going to bring us only 16x. For this cycle, relatively conservative estimates still get us to $100k to $300k (so that would be 25x to 75x). There are more bold and bullish out there (maybe just referring to peeps like my lil selfie) that suggest over shootings in the $500k to $1.5million territory. which would either already deliver $1million or would be within 2x of your $1million target - even though if something like $500k, were to be reached, $500k would not be the bouncing off point for the next cycle, but instead we would have to see where its floor ends up, which may well be anywhere between $40k and $100k as starting off point for the next cycle, which would still allow for $1million to be reached with 10x to 25x in the 2025 cycle's culmination. In regards to the relatively more conservative estimates of $100k to $300k for this cycle, then for the next cycle we would likely have bouncing off points of $20k to $60k, so I am thinking that still $1million would still be within reasonable reach of the next cycle because $20k to $60k would be 16.6x to 50x for that cycle.. And, so (as I type) I can start to see that presuming 50x for the next cycle to be a bit presumptuous, even though I consider it to be reasonable.. and I will also say that reaching a million by 2029 or 2030 would be reasonable, too, even though it is likely not necessary to attempt to extract too much about what might happen two additional cycles down the road when we still have not finished this cycle nor have seen what the next cycle might have in store for us (which none of us longer term observers of the BTC space, including ur lil selfie, AlcoHoDL, would be surprised by $1million in the next cycle - even if we might be surprised by it in this cycle). Regarding your point about reaching 10x fuck you status, so yeah sure, there is likely a kind of entry level fuck you status and then there are multiples of that, but I am going to stick with my guns in terms of continuing to accuse you, and likely others too, of problematic thinking when continuing to asserts the price of tops as fuck you status level because of at least two reasons: 1) we know that tops have tended to be quite unreliable in bitcoin so 2) based on 1, you end up having to rely upon either cashing out some bitcoin or overly valuing your wealth in dollars to consider tops as your fuck you status achievements. I will continue to agree with you and others (including that I do the same thing) about tops having importance and significance in terms of showing us where bitcoin is capable of going and showing where it is likely to go in future cycles, and also tops providing cushion regarding how much DOWNity would be feasibly within the cards and also there are likely going to be some cashing outs (shavings) of some of our BTC value at various price points on the way up, even if NOT being able to (nor wanting to) time the price top with any kind of precision. Quoting the entirety of your long, but well laid out post. Too little time to dissect it into parts, too little time for a proper reply, so I'll just post some general comments. Yeah, I sound bearish, don't I? The thing is, whenever I refer to "moon", "fuck-you", "fuck-you"x10, or whatever other level of Bitcoin price, I usually refer to what I call stable prices. By stable I mean very strong lower bounds on BTC price. I.e., a $1M / BTC stable price point could mean an instantaneous (unstable) price that varies between $2M and $3M / BTC. As an example, one could say that the current stable BTC price is around $20k, meaning that there is a near-certainty that the price of Bitcoin will not fall below said level. I'm talking about the kind of certainty that can enable one to make life-changing decisions, such as quitting a job, buying a house, relocating to another city or even to another country. And as Bitcoin price rises, the distance (or safety margin) between stable and unstable levels should be larger, or at least I would like it to be larger, the reason being that this is not pocket money anymore, nor is it a matter of picking a Playboy bunny vs. Frenchie, or whatever other side activity or secondary, reversible decision. At $millions / BTC price levels, things can get much more serious, to the point of making irreversible decisions, once you flick the "fuck-you" switch, so you should aim to have a rock-solid foundation upon which to base said decisions. If we take Saylor's 200% ( 4x 3x) per year Bitcoin price appreciation figure, that is based on past performance, we end up with an instantaneous (unstable) price of around $3.5M $1.5M / BTC by mid-2024. But, does past performance guarantee future performance (clichι, but...)? Add to that the possibility of long winter years ahead, such as 2018-2019. Will we reach a stable price of $1M / BTC by 2024? I hope so, and it's certainly doable. Saylor predicts it, S2F models predict it, you predict it, who am I to disagree? Will it take a few more years to get there? Maybe, it's quite possible, and it's my realistic (albeit a little bearish) guess. Will we ever get there? This one is a sure bet, and that's what really matters. Edit: Corrected wrong numbers in Saylor's case: 200% growth = 4x 3x growth! |
|
|
|
*SNIP*
So, you're saying that we'll stop at $10M / BTC if worldwide Bitcoin adoption is 100%, but we can go 100x (at $1B / BTC) if worldwide Bitcoin adoption is less than 100%?
I'm clearly not understanding something here...
Edit: I guess what you mean is that there will come a time when BTC coins will be seen as extremely rare objects of desire, much like Leonardo da Vinci's Mona Lisa, so the price can be set arbitrarily high. Well, there is only one Mona Lisa, but millions of BTC... I don't think Mona Lisa's price would be the same if there were 18 million identical Mona Lisas available. Supply & demand. In any case, $10M / BTC is already beyond most HoDLers' wildest expectations, and I would prefer a worldwide adoption approaching 100%, which gives HoDLers safety, as well as wealth.
So you say if there were 18 million Mona Lisas then each and every one of them would cost 60k? I doubt that. I understand what Arrie is saying but I think 1b is a bit overthrown, maybe somewhere around 100mil in todays value by 2050. Does todays money supply even matter? Why BTC can't overrun the total monetary value? Bitcoin is transcending from being a store of value to being value itself. I like the sound of that! |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
