Several knowledgeable commentators (Novo is one) mentioned over the weekend that the leverage is high right now.
Also, some meme coins popped 70-120% in a week, which to me always indicates that the market is probably overheating.
The latter only peripherally relates to bitcoin, but, still...
Bottom line: it wouldn't surprise me if we correct 10-15% from here (to 53-56K) before rallying into the halving, but I will not try to time it as 10% lower is nothing comparing to at least 200-300% possible upside to 180-250K. Wouldn't want to miss the latter.
Yeah.. maybe if we are consolidating between $58.5 and $64k, then there might be slightly greater odds to break down rather than breaking up - even though part of the problem is the ongoing shortage of coins that seem to exist for the weekly ETF buys, which don't tend to be trading vehicles .. they are more like longer term HODL vehicles that will reallocate once in a while.
But, hey, potentially similar to you, I am not exactly strongly convicted in regards to which way a break will come, because I can recognize and appreciate how frothy the last couple of weeks have seemed, which would justify a correction, but at the same time, if there is a correction, then that means someone is selling coins.. so I am not sure if there are enough of the weak hands wanting to sell right now... but still not going to be surprised either way... while at the same time, I would be surprised to hang out in this exact same range for more than a week or two if we measure from the beginning (which maybe we could measure from last Wednesday when we arrived here).
The quote close to the end (from a mathematician who has proven that market is "not efficient"): "essentially, you can beat the market if you have large computational resources, etc."
Ahem...I wonder what Google, Microsoft, Nvidia and OpenAI are doing with this?
Imho, whatever inefficiencies they find, they would extract it from the everyday mom and pop investors who "blindly" invest in indices, mostly.
I know that the Medallion fund (Simons) did turn it's attention to bitcoin at some point a few years ago.
That is another one of the benefits of asymmetric information, including if we might conclude that the halvening is not priced in.. even though right now, there might be some additional force upon the BTC prices through the ETFs and with knowledge that the halvening is going to make the supply of BTC worse (harder to come by), yet the halvening is still likely not priced in because people do not exactly realize it and act upon it until after it has already happened....
and it takes a while with the suffering of fewer and fewer coins available to really affect the price, but then we already have fewer and fewer coins available because they are getting sucked up by the ETFs. and at the same time the halvening is coming and so.. ultimately, asymmetric information results in this is gentlemen.
AND this is why when CBOE announced they would tame bitcoin it was not an idle threat.
Fortunately all they managed to do was cool it.
Which btw, this is what is wrong with S2f model as I mentioned back then, it does not take derivatives into account.
*far be it from me to say I told you so.
You are premature in proclaiming the stock to flow model as dead.
#justsayingNice quiet saturday before the next leg to 66 this week!
You really think so? and if so, why stop there?
#asking for my lil selfie
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