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1001  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 01, 2013, 08:42:34 PM
rpietila: dude, you shouldn't post while intoxicated. Doesn't do you any good. All you get is a sense of shame in the morning and a lot of PR repair work to be done.  Wink

batcoin: LOL thanks Grin

Anyone else: getting back in topic - M5 chart on Clarkmoody shows a triangle. Where do you think we are? Sucker's rally? Dead cat bounce up? Still long painful slide?
1002  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 01, 2013, 08:24:40 PM
it looks to me like bottom-catchers have decided that 111$ is the new 5$.  Grin
1003  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 01, 2013, 06:27:12 PM
OMFG: the 120 wall has been eaten in few seconds

... and somebody just dumped 9k coins  Shocked
1004  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 01, 2013, 05:24:54 PM
H1 chart looks... shit. M15 looks like shit too. H4 tells me I have to wait 8 hours for confirmation = either shit or bounce. D1 starts looking similar to 2011. Shit.

I'm almost tempted to put in a couple of sell/buy orders to take advantage of the descending slope and get some extra coins. But Murphy's law loves me so I won't do that.

When everyone here will have lost hope - that will be the time to buy.
1005  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 01, 2013, 04:33:20 PM
Out of curiosity, what is the real cost of mining a bitcoin by now?

Just trying to determine a better bottom...
1006  Economy / Speculation / Re: So... gox is being flooded with orders for 0.00 on: May 01, 2013, 03:57:15 PM
This morning I moved all the BTC I made above my starting investment onto BTCe. I don't intend to use MT Gox for trading but it's good to know I have coins on a liquid, safe if completely fucking bonkers, exchange.

So you're moving from an incompetent company managed by script-kiddies which at least is officially registered in Japan to an "exchange" ran by unknown Russian people who never responded claims of being hacked and users' coins stolen multiple times.

Not that the rest of the "exchanges" do inspire above-joke confidence, unfortunately for all of us.

Good luck  Sad
1007  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections on: May 01, 2013, 11:29:56 AM
based on some fractal analysis, the lowest feasible bottom is around $90. i suspect that's where the support will be if we break $120.

it's amazing, but we're still 'consolidating' in huge, week-long swings from the 10 April crash:

-===-



-===-

modeling this with the classic triangle consolidation pattern, we get a similar picture, but unfortunately, it's difficult to tell what the slope of the bottom support is. if it is a flat-bottomed triangle, then $90 will be the support (yellow line); if it is a symmetrical triangle, we may see prices even lower (white line) before we reach the short-term bottom.

--arepo

You sure? I don't understand much TA but all I see is a bunch of oscillations converging around 130.



PS Thanks for your posts, I find them both helpful and entertaining
1008  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: April 30, 2013, 09:24:31 PM
Place your bids 120 will soon be close!

nope, don't see it. I'd say worst case = 125 by end tomorrow.
1009  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: April 30, 2013, 07:41:46 PM
I believe the shitstorm's over for now... support around 135.
1010  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Apr 30, 2013] Reason for the dump that started today's 10$+ drop? on: April 30, 2013, 06:59:18 PM
Who is more important in the bitcoin price? most of you says "i was here in 2011" but do you understand 146$ without the "only 1 month" people in bitcoin? without the new people the bitcoin price was 80$, can you explain why we have to trust in bitcoin at 146? if not you can begin to sell now because if we dont trust sell yours, you will have 80$ bitcoins.

Sorry, I can't understand your writing.
I think you're trying to say that bitcoin price is up because of all the people who joined in the last month, otherwise it would be 80$.
I won't start debating over that argument of yours as it's not pertinent to the topic of the thread.

I also guess you are annoyed at my saying "I'm here since 2011" while you're a newcomer. But that reply of mine was not intended for you. That was just like "trolling a troll". Hope I did not offend anyone in the process and sorry if I did.

Cheers and welcome to the party  Cool
1011  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Apr 30, 2013] Reason for the dump that started today's 10$+ drop? on: April 30, 2013, 06:18:44 PM
stop wasting everyones time just cause you bought higher yesterday and now are scared

Quote
Date Registered:  April 06, 2013, 03:51:55 AM

Hello. You must be the new guy here.
Let me introduce myself. I'm one of those who were already mining/buying in 2011.

Cheers.   Smiley
1012  Economy / Speculation / [Apr 30, 2013] Reason for the dump that started today's 10$+ drop? on: April 30, 2013, 06:06:17 PM
1. BitPay (or another subject with loads of coins to burn) shorting at the end of the month in order to buy in cheaper
2. 1st of May is labour day, banks are closed in many countries, people dumping because they expect a mini-weekend-dip-alike
3. Most "get rich quick" people are leaving the building after having gotten hurt by buying at 200+$
4. Bitcoin isn't the new cool thing anymore. Google Trends is in decline. Bitcoin got its 5 minutes of celebrity and now it's back to being play-money (notice how low the volume is if compared to March)
5. Others? Write your own or let me know if you agree with any of the above...

(disclaimer: I am long bitcoin and yes I hope they'll skyrocket but still I try to stay objective as opposed to delusional bull)
1013  Economy / Speculation / Weekend dip myth, mid-month depression, month end rise. My take on it. on: April 28, 2013, 11:37:08 AM
Hi guys,
It's a rainy Sunday and I don't have much to do.
I have been watching this show for a while now, and I got to my own conclusions.
I am sharing them here for you to discuss.

DISCLAIMER
I am long bitcoin.

ASSUMPTIONS
Gox exchange rate drives the market. Other exchanges are followers.
Most actors in the orderbook are people who perceive a fiat salary at the end of each calendar month.


1. THE WEEKEND DIP MYTH
Gox prices always fall in the weekend. Why?
Because in the weekend there is no fiat coming in.
In every purchase some money is lost to Gox transaction fees.
So over time, with no new money coming in, the price has to drop.

BUT: Weekend dips were so punctual and predictable last year that some people started trying to take advantage of them - by selling on Friday afternoon and buying back in on Sunday morning. Hence the price now spikes on Sunday morning.

2. THE MID-MONTH DEPRESSION
Gox prices always consolidate or fall slightly around the middle of every calendar month. Why?
Because of small investors who bought bitcoins with part of their salary.
Some of them have to cash-out fiat to make it till the next payday.

3. THE MONTH END RISE
That's right after fiat payday, when people wire money to Gox and buy bitcoins.

What's your take? Critics and comments welcome  Smiley
1014  Economy / Speculation / Re: And..... CRASH! on: April 25, 2013, 09:19:24 PM
It's hilarious that you guys are saying market manipulators brought the price down versus market manipulators pumping the price up. You're telling me that the price jumping up over $25 in under 1 minute is not manipulation? LOL.

Yes, everyone selectively ignores this. We did not start lagging until $123ish......as soon as we lagged we bounced ridiculously ($25 under a minute). The natural sell-off that occurred down to 120 (lagged at 123) was somehow manipulation......but the utterly bizarre price movements that began after the lag were not manipulation??

<CONSPIRACY MODE ON>
I think the pump has been prepared carefully by the manipulator(s) in the last two days.
Due to Gox limits and the selloffs of two weeks ago most people had fiat left in their accounts so they have jumped in.

I think the price movements after the dump are caused by HFT bots going nuts while trying to seize the opportunity for cheap coins - either that or a fake dead cat bounce was also orchestrated by the manipulator(s) in order to execute the second tree-shake.

<TIN FOIL HAT MODE ON>
I have seen such pattern a number of times now. This kind of manipulation always consists of two tree shakes in a row. The second one has a smaller magnitude because both bots and people adapt their predictions. A third one generally does not happen as it would yield low profit and high risk for the manipulator.
<TIN FOIN HAT MODE OFF>
<CONSPIRACY MODE OFF>
1015  Economy / Speculation / Re: And..... CRASH! on: April 25, 2013, 08:53:21 PM
brace yourselves guys, I kinda have the feeling HE is about to do it again - although it won't be that strong this time
1016  Economy / Speculation / Re: And..... CRASH! on: April 25, 2013, 08:45:01 PM
Ok ok Op called it correctly.

Although it's not a crash... it's just a professional tree shake.

I sold at 146, bought back at 139, sold again at 126, bought back at 121.
In total I made 12 extra coins out of playing with my pocket money. I call it a day.

So op, please join me in expressing our thankful gratitude to the deep-pocketed-manipulator who shook the tree this time.
And btw... we are already at 138... hope you bought back in fast enough.

 Wink
1017  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Asic Issue - Can BFL get 51%? on: April 25, 2013, 06:52:13 PM
Assuming these are real:
https://products.butterflylabs.com/homepage/50-gh-s-bitcoin-miner.html
https://products.butterflylabs.com/homepage/1500gh-bitcoin-miner.html

Assuming:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

Is right.

The first BFL rig needs less than 1600 (or ~ $4M) to be viable for a 51% attack. The second needs only about 5. That is ridiculous. It is quite believable right now that BFL simply doesn't ship, and keeps the rigs for themselves and essentially runs bitcoin until somebody can come up with something more efficient. What is going to be done about this?

Search for smoothie, go read his signature. Grin
1018  Economy / Speculation / Re: And..... CRASH! on: April 25, 2013, 06:50:00 PM
OP, you lost objectivity since you sold at 135.
And turned into a wishful thinker  Roll Eyes

Don't go that route - it's like a Truman Show with no happy ending.
1019  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Withdrawal delays tracking thread for all exchanges - post your experience here on: April 24, 2013, 03:21:53 PM
OK OK I get it. Nobody wants to share their experience. I deleted my own post as well.
1020  Economy / Service Discussion / Withdrawal delays tracking thread for all exchanges - post your experience here on: April 24, 2013, 11:27:01 AM
So it seems to me that many of us are experiencing frustrating delays when withdrawing fiat from exchanges.
Also we get vague replies from the exchanges' support, like "higher volume than normal", "we maxed out our daily withdrawal limit" etc. with no realistic ETAs provided nor any public statement. Not good enough to me.

I suggest we post our experiences in this thread so others can make an informed choice. Community feedback is also important for better PR.

E.g. post exchange name, date you placed the withdrawal order, which kind of method (Sofort, SEPA, international, others) and a brief summary of your experience (e.g. "received after 14 days" or "status: confirmed not finished" or "cancelled through support after 7 days" etc)

Please AVOID sharing any too-confidential information (e.g. exact amount of the withdrawal, your country or the exact date and time) as doing so puts your real identity and wealth status at risk of being exposed.

I'll start in the next post.
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