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1161  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 09, 2018, 07:49:03 AM

Thanks, but sometimes it's better to ignore and hope it dies a natural death.  Smiley

 Ya gotta pick your battles.

I am back to doing that. And using ignore more often.
1162  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 08, 2018, 09:35:10 PM
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/bitcoin-futures-markets-unusual-behaviour-2018-2
Goldman Sachs has spotted an odd way you could make money trading Bitcoin futures
“With no large institutions operating across exchanges, there is likely an insufficient scale of arbitrage to drive spreads out of the market.”

Goldman are beginning to get on my tits.

Sure, these are hardly nice guys.  But... My 2 Satoshis...

So they arb a gap between long and short-term futures?  It makes them money (short term), but the futures are cash settled, so no BTC are really involved.   They wouldn't be open on this if they really thought it was a 'big play' they would just do it.   

It doesn't mean they're affecting the market or price - and the futures market still really isn't large enough to affect the price massively around the world. Since volumes do not allow spreading risk for market raids by playing the market via futures at the same time as manipulating it.  This of course comes with the caveat: 'yet'.

Also they can't put their client money into the market just like that, it's too risky and probably off-limits for many, many reasons (regulatory and otherwise). 

Eventually futures markets could end up being the tail wagging the dog.  It will come, but so far, it's not the case.
1163  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 08, 2018, 09:08:05 PM

Where is the call in part? Also..we need to get Roger on record more often..I mean..just look at him..please let him speak out more for bch lol.


such terrible lies and manipulation.
the call in part is still in this live stream https://youtu.be/gPJ0Nhfv_ZE about 1 hr ago
doubtless better edits are incoming

From the press release read out by the host:

Roger Ver:
'was the first person in the world to have invested in Bitcoin'
'Single handedly invested in the first generation of Bitcoin businesses'

Fun accidental (Freudian slip?) by Ver:

'Craig Satoshi'  

Oh, and according to Ver, Blockstream is run by the leader of the Bilderberg Group, which is actively preventing Bitcoin being used as money.

Didn't he used to be 'Bitcoin Jesus'?

This is a great argument for freedom of speech - he certainly hangs himself.  I cringed.
1164  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 08, 2018, 10:59:45 AM
I must say:

It's been very reassuring to see certain views being challenged in this thread which have been left to pass by without comment before.

I was beginning to wonder, now I find I am not alone. Respect to those who spoke up, it was about time.

'nuff said.


On with WO nonsense in all its flavours.



1165  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 08, 2018, 10:50:04 AM

Bitstamp does have chained orders. You should play a bit with it as it could automate a bit more your trading. I don't use bots either, that would be too much automation for me and my smallish trading. This is just for setting an equal higher limit sell order right after the buy order has been filled... and viceversa. But it only does it one time, after the second order is executed (what I denominate a "combo" in lack of a better term) you would need to manually insert a new one (or if you are "live" substitute the standing second order for a chained one).

In bitstamp you just have to go put a limit order as you usually do and then you have a small link that says "advanced" and when clicked you can set at which price the contrarian order will be put AFTER the first one gets filled.

For me it is a VERY useful feature. YMMV.

Yep, I use it a lot, saves me watching all night to see if an order has been filled, before putting in the corresponding order.

Been a boon with this 'ball bouncing down stairs' action.   Helped me to scoop up small wins, which I have then used to hoover up more coin on the way down.   Overall stash is down in value of course - but for getting more coin in a downtrend, it's been useful.  I just wish you could set the corresponding buy or sell for a different amount of coin (as well as price).
1166  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 08, 2018, 09:39:10 AM
To be really good you just need to be better than the average trader. And for that you don't need to sell the exact top or buy the exact bottom. It's enough to stagger purchases and sales in proportions that depend on the probabilities of price increases/decreases by certain numbers. Finding the probabilities is the trick here, as well as averaging them out in a way that guarantees you a performance band in which your portfolio will fall with a given probability. Doing that requires an understanding of time series as well as the ability to process large amounts of data (beyond just the price charts) though.

Agreed, but why didn't we see the crash coming? If there was a pattern to predict that, not many here did.

Did you know after it went up towards 20k that within a month or so it would hit 6K?  I didn't.
1167  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 08, 2018, 09:28:31 AM

(snip....)

The underlying question, of course, is: How can smaller creatures - human, tunas, herrings and minnows - see it coming?


This is a huge, but probably unanswerable question.  But it is one that anyone smart is always hoping to find the answer to.

Markets are all about confidence and sentiment, so (sadly) there is no perfect answer, even though with hindsight patterns do repeat.  But patterns can always be seen in the past and look obvious - seeing them coming again is not so easy.  Like Elliot waves; it's always debatable 'which wave' we are in.

For long-term trend prediction (the big turning points), I think indicators of irrational bullishness /bearishness are as good an indicator of anything a crash, or rise is coming - but this is unmeasurable mathematically.

Short term - personally - I draw lines on charts endlessly, decide my favourite candle time scale and which MA to trade on and it usually 'helps' - but only enough to give me an edge.  And it's an edge that works only if you work hard and spend a LOT of time on it.

I did sell off 20% in Dec, which was as much as I dared to because it was enough to change my life significantly - and I didn't know what the tax situation in my country was likely to mean for what I took out (plus it was still going up!).   I felt strongly we would probably correct, and I remembered 2013, so I took 'some' out.  I advised members of my close family who had anything to do the same (they chose not to).

I will say this:

With trends (not short term trading), the only thing that has worked for me is two methodologies:

1.  Gut feeling  (along with mentally preparing to 'sell to too early, if it's enough money to make a difference')

2.  Listening to Tera.
Well, while you can't predict where in a given pattern we are at any given moment, you can use historical data to get a probability of certain patterns unfolding on different time scales. And to be profitable all it takes is to be right just over 50% of the time, which is something that isn't extremely difficult in inefficient markets. That does take a very specific toolset though, so it's not for everyone by default, although the required skills can be acquired by anyone. The problem is that figuring out the details takes a very long time, and humans are pretty dreadful when it comes to long-term planning.

I think what d_eddie was quite reasonably asking was 'what can we learn so that can we see the big stuff coming in future', since most here did not.

I use TA and in normal conditions I can trade with enough edge for it to work well enough to be worthwhile, after five years, I ought to have learned something - but I didn't know where the top was, and I am not totally certain BTC has bottomed out.  To be really good, you need to sell all at the precise top, and then buy it back at the absolute bottom.  

I doubt anyone actually did.

Perfection is not possible, but getting closer to it is a noble and sensible quest.

1168  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 08, 2018, 08:49:09 AM

(snip....)

The underlying question, of course, is: How can smaller creatures - human, tunas, herrings and minnows - see it coming?


This is a huge, but probably unanswerable question.  But it is one that anyone smart is always hoping to find the answer to.

Markets are all about confidence and sentiment, so (sadly) there is no perfect answer, even though with hindsight patterns do repeat.  But patterns can always be seen in the past and look obvious - seeing them coming again is not so easy.  Like Elliot waves; it's always debatable 'which wave' we are in.

For long-term trend prediction (the big turning points), I think indicators of irrational bullishness /bearishness are as good an indicator of anything a crash, or rise is coming - but this is unmeasurable mathematically.

Short term - personally - I draw lines on charts endlessly, decide my favourite candle time scale and which MA to trade on and it usually 'helps' - but only enough to give me an edge.  And it's an edge that works only if you work hard and spend a LOT of time on it.

I did sell off 20% in Dec, which was as much as I dared to because it was enough to change my life significantly - and I didn't know what the tax situation in my country was likely to mean for what I took out (plus it was still going up!).   I felt strongly we would probably correct, and I remembered 2013, so I took 'some' out.  I advised members of my close family who had anything to do the same (they chose not to).

I will say this:

With trends (not short term trading), the only thing that has worked for me is two methodologies:

1.  Gut feeling  (along with mentally preparing to 'sell to too early, if it's enough money to make a difference')

2.  Listening to Tera.
1169  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 07, 2018, 11:11:24 PM
At least ignoring people makes the page catch-up quicker.... But does no one else think some things are beyond the pale?

I just despair of a worldwide forum supposedly devoted to freedom for all being so intolerant and ignorant sometimes. I guess it's me that's the oddball looking at the shit that passes by here as 'normal' as far from it.  I have punched people for less, and yep, had the shit kicked out of me for objecting, too. 

However, I don't think advocating racism and even genocide on here is anything but abhorrent and I never will, so I can't change my spots. 

I cannot tolerate it when my forbears fought and were prepared to (and sometimes did) die to fight this, so I think I had better stop lurking here.


I  temp. unignored a few of these racists to find out what had pushed you over the edge.

None of them say anything useful about bitcoin or the price or the world. Unlike you, who occasionally...

They must have been very hurt somewhere along the line to be so rabidly, rigidly raging.

I don't argue with them, because they certainly won't change in the face of logic.

Horrified newbies will always engage them, so their cries will leak into one's feed.

Maybe we should engage those newbies with stirring little speeches rather than running away.

This is appreciated.  I can't remember a day in years I haven't checked in on the WO - it's part of my life, I engage with it less often than I read it.

But I wanted to yesterday, then my blood just suddenly ran cold when I felt I was just part of a thread peppered with stuff that made me question what kind of people I was nodding along with.  Some things were waved though without being seen as anything but normal - and I seemed the only person to find them sickening.

Maybe I should look away more often and wear an old-fashioned clothes peg on my nose, or perhaps better still - yes; fight for the positive, rather than run from the the negative.

I will reconsider and not flounce out.   That said, I am damned if I won't speak my mind if I feel compelled to. 

Thank you.
1170  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 07, 2018, 12:28:58 AM
At least ignoring people makes the page catch-up quicker.... But does no one else think some things are beyond the pale?

I just despair of a worldwide forum supposedly devoted to freedom for all being so intolerant and ignorant sometimes. I guess it's me that's the oddball looking at the shit that passes by here as 'normal' as far from it.  I have punched people for less, and yep, had the shit kicked out of me for objecting, too. 

However, I don't think advocating racism and even genocide on here is anything but abhorrent and I never will, so I can't change my spots. 

I cannot tolerate it when my forbears fought and were prepared to (and sometimes did) die to fight this, so I think I had better stop lurking here.
1171  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 07, 2018, 12:00:27 AM
China was humiliated by the 20k bitcoin after banning it.
I think they are interested in low prices.
Would be funny to see them eat shit again.  Grin

A lot of them are on holiday already, when they're back, you will see how interested they are.
1172  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2018, 11:52:31 PM

Please don't quote the nazi again, I have seen that picture enough.  Genocidal racists are not funny.
1173  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2018, 10:55:53 PM
So, just sent an email to our CTO to set up a meeting/brief-chat, to let him know that I'm resigning.

Shit just got real.

Don't like the circumstances under which I'm leaving, but nothing I can do about it. My hand is being forced. (They want things their way, I want things my way, no way to meet in the middle...)

I'm likely to be throwing a small wrench into the works with my resignation, but I just can't deal with my manager and constant reorgs anymore.

End of an era approaching for me.

Kinda depressed, and then I think "Why you so depressed dude ? You're fucking retiring early, dawg ! Going to live the dream and so-on-and-so-forth. Get a fucking grip."

Will be nice to step away and focus on me for the rest of my unnatural life.

Soon.

Never imagined I would be dealing with this sort of existential angst with retirement mere weeks away...

Good luck, Bob - all this will be nothing in your Porsche rear-view mirror soon.   If you can handle a Bitcoin 'correction' like this, you can handle anything - and you have handled it well.  What you deserve and what they want are two different things. That is life, and you are a free agent. Be grateful, but put yourself first.

No one is going to look back and wish they spent more time in the office...
1174  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2018, 10:27:46 PM
To state the obvious:

Most of us have been hoping someone else would start buying.  

The problem is simply that the majority of the market cash hasn’t been.  Why would it when it’s on the way down?  

However:   Ultimately there is a price that is just too low and there will be more buyers than sellers.  The market decides this, not our crossed fingers.

This is the truth.  The price will eventually turn up, it must: but ‘when’ the bottom is in can truly only be known with hindsight.

If this is over, we must be thankful - because a slow bleed is worse than a sharper, faster one.  Anyone who waited after Gox for a final bottom for over a year will remember the pain of this.

That said, we know in our soul these coins are really cheap, we just need to feel the market agrees, so we don’t buy before they’re cheaper still.  

Once it is apparent the market has decided, we know the bottom is in and so we can BUY.

And BUY, we will.  
A great way to put it.
I've been buying like mad on the way down - perhaps too much, too early, but when she gets back up were she belongs it will be much less relevant.

The thing is, in these bloody days, I didn't feel as much panic as I felt FOMO.

Me too, I ran out a few days back and had to sell to have funds to buy lower.  Scary. 

But I was determined to try to increase BTC on the way down, not just watch it bleed.  On my trading stash, I am up.  But am running low on dry powder again, if there is another leg down.  I will need to go back to money I cashed out in Dec for ammo.

That said, whatever happens -  I am determined to come out of this with more BTC, not cash.  Cash is a given when it goes back up.

Bitcoin is what matters.
1175  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2018, 10:15:35 PM
Just one more dip to about 7280, please - I just need a little more!

EDIT: and in the next 2 hours would be great, I can't stay up all night again
1176  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2018, 10:09:02 PM
To state the obvious:

Most of us have been hoping someone else would start buying.  

The problem is simply that the majority of the market cash hasn’t been.  Why would it when it’s on the way down?  

However:   Ultimately there is a price that is just too low and there will be more buyers than sellers.  The market decides this, not our crossed fingers.

This is the truth.  The price will eventually turn up, it must: but ‘when’ the bottom is in can truly only be known with hindsight.

If this is over, we must be thankful - because a slow bleed is worse than a sharper, faster one.  Anyone who waited after Gox for a final bottom for over a year will remember the pain of this.

That said, we know in our soul these coins are really cheap, we just need to feel the market agrees, so we don’t buy before they’re cheaper still.  

Once it is apparent the market has decided, we know the bottom is in and so we can BUY.

And BUY, we will.  
1177  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2018, 09:59:13 PM
This is not the end.
This is not even the beginning of the end.
But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning...

W.C.
1178  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2018, 09:54:11 PM
um , am I seeing a 1500+ BTC bid on stamp?

It leapt up to 2000.... at around 7870 - now at 1410 a little over 8000.

Somehow I doubt it will wait to be totally sold into.

EDIT: Nope - looks as it's really buying, almost gone.  I hope it pushes things up, but I am not sure it will.
Yeah, looks like some millionaire buying into the market.

Daily candle on Bistamp is over 65,000 BTC already...  Pretty healthy fight for price and the candle is definitely not red.  Cautiously now thinking (as Tera says) - bullish...
1179  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2018, 09:36:07 PM
um , am I seeing a 1500+ BTC bid on stamp?

It leapt up to 2000.... at around 7870 - now at 1410 a little over 8000.

Somehow I doubt it will wait to be totally sold into.

EDIT: Nope - looks as it's really buying, almost gone.  I hope it pushes things up, but I am not sure it will.
1180  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2018, 08:51:35 PM
Trains and rockets? 

b..b...but I have prepared myself so well for buys all the way down, so I could feel smug!

I ain't cancelling them yet, but what a difference a green candle can make.

I hope DOOM is over...   But let's see. 
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