I know that this project is basically an "it will be done when it will be done..." kind of thing, but can you give us any idea about where you are in the process?

Couldn't disagree more.  There is no social contract with Bitcoin, and to the extent any contract at all exists, Satoshidice follows it.  That nodes and miners have agreed to process SD transactions is self evident, despite your protests and claims to the contrary; unanimity was never a requirement.

That has been what I have been saying for months.  They'll set some deadline for a date and when they date finally comes, they then announce that there was a delay at some point, even though they surely must have known that the delay would be coming for days or weeks before their announcement.  I expressed it thusly on November 27th ...

"This is exactly why I had to cancel one of my orders. If BFL were an employee calling in late to work, it would be like this.

Work starts at 9:00. Travel time is 30 minutes assuming no traffic. There is some level of traffic 90% of the time. BFL plans to leave at 8:25.

"Announcement - I hope to be at work at 9:00 tomorrow ... assuming nothing goes wrong. I even have a buffer in case there is traffic."

Time is 8:45 and BFL just leaves the house for work.

"Announcement - Everything still hunky dory. Not late to work yet and I'm driving really fast."

Time is 8:55 and BFL hits traffic. BFL reroutes.

"Announcement - I might not be into work at time, but I hope I'll make it."

Time is 9:15 and BFL is now sitting in worse traffic on the new route.

"Announcement - Looks like I'm going to be late for work... probably.   Don't worry though, someone else will probably be late as well so no worries. Oh, by the way, when I come in, you'll get the best darned employee you've ever seen. I'm the reliable Ferrari of employees!"

Time is 9:30 and boss is calling BFL's cell, upset that he's late. BFL doesn't directly answer his questions and seems evasive. Boss asks what time BFL left the house - no answer. Boss asks how often there is traffic - no answer. Boss asks what kind of coffee BFL had that morning - Folgers, 3 sugars, no milk.

"Announcement - I hope to be in at 10:00. I never 'promised' 9:00. I just hoped to be in at 9:00, just like I 'hope' to be in at 10:00. Why so upset?"

Time is 9:59 and the entire factory is furiously waiting on BFL to come because he has one of 3 keys to the lock that shuts everyone else out altogether. He's costing them money because had he simply been more honest about his situation from the get go, when he left his house in the first place, the boss would have called in Thomas or Evelan, because they also have keys, but today was their day off.

"Announcement - Making this announcement with 1 minutes to spare! That's right... Time to spare on this one. No new details other than the fact that I've put premium gas in my car and I'll probably, maybe, hopefully, be in around, nearby, or close to mid, late, probably end of the 10 o'clock hour. My contract says you can't fire me until 11:00 anyway ... so really ... I'm still not even late."

And... scene.

Josh and everyone else at Butterfly Labs ... are you starting to see things from our perspective yet?"

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/437-asic-update-26-november-2012-a-6.html#post6356

rDYqAzWTVbMAp1UoxQatbbn4RQKPMus8BC

It will depend on BFL having any more delays.  If there are no more delays and BFL is able to build and ship quickly enough, they may survive this blow.  If they have to delay another couple weeks or a month (with Avalon then opening up batches 3 and 4, no doubt bigger than 1 and 2), I think the demand for refunds would be catastrophic.

I thought it was a scam when no tracking number was provided.  Avalon did everything a scammer would do right up to the point of telling us that they'd be opening up a second batch for sale, without proof of the first being shipped, available to order in Bitcoin only... They did all this when they could have provided so much more in terms of information and updates.  I mean, could they not show some more pictures... video... mine for a little bit on a test pool... etc...?

It made no sense if they were legit, and huge sense if they were a scam.

So Avalon did the equivalent of a guy running away from a bank with a duffel bag while wearing a ski mask.  Now that we have good reason to believe he didn't rob the bank, all his friends want an apology from the people who thought he probably did.

Someone sent him a PPP Powerbook!

A likely story...

If this is true, can anyone fathom why no tracking number was not given out?

I'm thinking that there isn't even really an upper limit.  They'll have 1,000 orders and be saying, "Only 300 left!  Place your orders now or you'll be left behind!"

A review from Jeff could be faked too, so why bother with that, if your logic is sound?  When BFL wouldn't provide timely pictures and videos, it later became clear that they were failing to provide that stuff because they simply didn't have it.

Now you're failing to provide that kind of stuff, only under the excuse that you could have faked it.  Sure, but we know that.  We know that a video of the machine isn't 100% proof, but that isn't what people are asking for.  They're asking for whatever assurance they feel pictures and videos would provide.

I agree.  That's why I'm a little surprised they didn't stop the orders at a higher number.... hey, wait a second.

Maybe there is no upper limit.  So customers think there is a cap at 600, but in reality, because there is no product, it is limitless.

I think I called this one pretty close on the 25th...


What did I get wrong?  It would appear that rather than shipping bricks, they've failed to ship anything at all, so there is no need to track it.  Now they're announcing Batch #2 and increasing it not to 2,000, but a more modest bump from 500 to 600.  This will quickly sell out and we'll never hear from Avalon again.

That is my prediction.  Prove me wrong Avalon.

Would've been more with a tracking number.

I predicted this possibility 3 days ago.

I have to reiterate....

Size matters... at all?  There are only 4 relevant factors: cost, release date, hashing power, and wattage.  That you're even commenting on size, and that you've consistently touted the good looks of the BFL units, tells everyone here that your priorities are way out of whack.

This is starting to smell very, very fishy.

So now... what could be up and what seems most likely.

1 - They have shipped, but despite several days, do not have tracking numbers to give anyone.

2 - They have not shipped, and only said they had to placate the stream of naysayers who would've emerged had they came forward with a delay.

3 - They have shipped, but for some reason, are refusing to provide even the most basic information.  (tracking numbers, pictures, videos, etc....)

None of these seem likely...

However, let's start thinking like someone who trusts no one and sees scams in the clouds, bushes, and alphabet soup.

4 - Avalon has shipped boxes with bricks in them.  They are tracking the packages and are waiting until they are near their destination.  Despite what they've said about Batch #2 being open only after the first reviews, they make an announcement that in the interest of time, they are opening up Batch #2 orders, which quickly sells out, even though they've increased the number available to 2,000.  The first packages arrive, are found to be bricks and we never hear from Avalon again.

#1 and #3 seem unlikely.  #2 seems likely to me.  #4 seems highly unlikely, but not impossible, so for those of you looking to jump on Batch #2, be careful.

I wonder if there could be a Satoshi Dice game where the casino destroys a portion of the coins it earns, thus increasing the $ value of the coins in its pocket.

Where did I say that you said it?

That is very illogical.  First, it is said that more Bitcoins were bought than sold, which is asinine because the number bought and sold will always be equal.  Then you come in and say, well... there are more buyers than sellers then.  As stated before, it could have been a single large buyer buying all the coins sold by 10,000 different sellers.  I've not bought or sold Bitcoins recently at all, so I don't get why you think I'm furious that I sold too early.

Learn demand and supply.