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Get out and buy BTC with your dollars. If you think ASIC's are coming at all soon, you'll soon be outgunned by not only all the buyers of ASIC's... but the ASIC companies themselves mining with their stock. Imagine if AMD put all their unsold GPU's to work mining BTC? Imagine if for every GH you buy from some ASIC manufacturer, they create 3 and use 2 to mine for themselves. This is what you'll soon be up against.
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Agreed. Same goes for BTCFPGA. They're being entirely too quiet lately, precisely when they need to increase transparency to separate themselves from the competition. The whole ASIC landscape is disconcerting ATM, though if I were an Avalon 1st batch customer I'd likely feel more at ease presently.
Couldn't agree more. BFL customers are only going to take Josh's non-update announcements so long. "Update - A few days ago, we had fuzzy dates... we hope they become less fuzzy in the future." That kind of thing will eat at you when you have a grand into it. And if Tom delays again for some reason, his customers are going to feel like they're getting the same kind of deal the BFL folks deal with, and they too will start jumping. I wouldn't feel totally surprised if BFL and/or BTCFPGA fold up. You can only not deliver until someone else actually delivers. I keep saying it. This game is winner take all (unless they all start shipping within a week or so of each other), and no one seems to realize it. |
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You're probably better off just dropping the refund money on BTC and sitting on them.
That's the conclusion I came to. Had the products shipped earlier, it would be a different story... but they didn't, so it is refund time, which BFL did provide me. I suspect as more and more people think about it, they're going to start demanding refunds as well. Ultimately, the majority of miners, even if they love BTC, measure what they're doing in terms of dollars. Let a big upward trend reveal itself and you'll have everyone jumping ship on Josh and Tom and whoever else so they can get their dollars, buy BTC, and make dollars that way. I could be wrong, but I have a feeling if things continue to go bad for BFL, the hard-core fans are going to get stuck holding the bag. |
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But there is an enormous timeframe in which they they may not deliver. They could fail to deliver for the next 1000 years. But once they deliver, the deed is done. So in other words, stay prepared to hear about how BFL isn't delivering for the foreseeable future. And because "dog bites man" isn't news, when they do deliver, we'll all be back to the speculation forum where we belong.
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awesome post  what is even more hilarious is that BFL really does not give a crap. they will only care when they lose 25% of their current orders. but hey.. why not just mine with the product. probably more profitable short term anyway. Glad to see my stuff making the rounds. |
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I personally want a quality product, not Tom's product.
why do you think Tom's product is not a quality product? Probably trying to score brownie points with Josh. |
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Given the amount of wattage it needs to dissipate, it doesn't seem like an unreasonable vent.
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The only plausible goal I would say is to disrupt the network to such a degree that people want to cash out, so the attackers can gobble up some cheap coins.
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08/28/2012 6314 N 1 0 0 0 - michaelmclees
08/29/2012 6637 N 0 1 0 0 - michaelmclees
Both cancelled and refunded.
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I think you're in the minority. The calculation people are making is this...
Order = Company you think will ship first
That's the whole game. Whoever gets the hardware first wins. No prizes for second place. Whether or not the company is reputable only factors in indirectly, changing whether no not you can trust BFL's December date over Tom's mid-January date.
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From what I understand, the thing that is difficult with the BTC chain isn't the transfer, but rather the verification on your local machine.
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It is just more BFL optimismspeak.
BFL wins pick and place machine on eBay - "Hey guys, currently installing pick and place machine!"
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The only way this sort of technical analysis works is if a critical mass... but not too many... people trade on it. I don't think that is what is happening. The bulk of people are cashing in and out based on current price, yesterday's price, and their prediction for the price tomorrow... combined with how quickly they need $, minus how long it will take and what fees are going to be absorbed in the process. That's the whole game right there and it makes all this technical analysis worth nothing, which is why your chart, and everyone else's, save for a few lucky guesses, will be wrong. Sorry... but you can't predict prices like this...  |
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In fairness to BFL, they were talking about a completely different product line.
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When I asked them about this, they said they wouldn't send anyone until everything was up and running. Personally, I think this is a waste of time. It was always my opinion the visit should be to see their progress, whatever it may be. BFL seems to have the opinion that it is a waste to send anyone with a camera until their basically shipping. If that's the plan ... What's the point?
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I can certainly understand that frustrations are running high, especially if you pre-ordered early in the summer with the expectation of an October ASIC release, but if you are truly no longer happy with the 'ride' you are being taken on by any of the vendors, then by all means, ask for a refund right now.
Took your advice and just sent the e-mail asking for a refund for one of my orders. I have to leave one open because someone already bought it from me... so for his sake, I hope it arrives soon so I can give it to him. |
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Well heck, by that criteria BFL is fine, too... since we've always maintained that we would would target October but it would be as late as December (hence the January 1st refund policy, which has been there since day one.)
Thanks for the confirmation that BFL is on target timeframe wise as well, I appreciate it!
You said you "hoped" the chips would be arriving by now. Any update on that? One would think you'd have a tracking number or something... |
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Pears to Bananas - Comparing the ASIC outfits to AMD and Intel is a fool's game. I asked BFL for pictures of boxes filled with parts and before they provided them (sort of) I was chastised with this logic. "Why don't you ask Intel for proof of their materials?"
Maybe because there's a difference between a multi-billion dollar, multi-national, publicly traded, 44 year old corporation with a long history of delivering products on time as predicted ... and Butterfly Labs.
I agree wholeheartedly, but once again, there's a simple solution. If you're not willing to take the risk of pre-ordering without that information/photos/data ahead of time, then simply don't pre-order. People seem to want to be on the cutting edge of Bitcoin mining but want exact specifics and guarantees. Sorry, but the two don't mix. Bitcoin is a risky endeavor all around, if you want guarantees buy more video cards or wait till ASIC's are actually in production before buying one. Complaining that you should have the benefit of being on the cutting edge and front of the line to get your hands on a new mining technology, but shouldn't have to take any risk whatsoever is ridiculous. But the risk you're talking about it is the risk that BFL is lying to get a bunch of pre-orders and they'll run away with the money, or the more likely scenario of them simply stringing everyone along with a series of missed deadlines. They claimed that such things would not happen, so you're incorrect in saying that that was the risk I'm taking. When I put in my order, it was on various promises they made. It seems a little illogical to say when they fail to make good on those promises, "Well... that's the risk you took..." No, it wasn't. I ordered a product. If you're going to lump in that the ordered product won't be there in time to be useful, then that's a risk with anything you buy on eBay, Amazon, etc... Like the possibility that the burger flipping will hock on my meal, it is a risk in the academic sense of the word, but not in the sense that it is a risk I willingly took on. It seems the only people who are enjoying this ride BFL is taking us on are the people who ordered, believing that BFL would not be able to timely deliver the product. What's worse is that the enjoyment manifests itself in these strange posts like yours. "Don't like being jerked around? Why did you order from BFL? Haha... Loser... Ordered on the information given and actually believed it!" It isn't like I'm hugely invested or anything, but the attitude seems to be... "I'm sure everything is moving as fast as it can.... stop worrying about it and enjoy the ride." I want off. |
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Pears to Bananas - Comparing the ASIC outfits to AMD and Intel is a fool's game. I asked BFL for pictures of boxes filled with parts and before they provided them (sort of) I was chastised with this logic. "Why don't you ask Intel for proof of their materials?"
Maybe because there's a difference between a multi-billion dollar, multi-national, publicly traded, 44 year old corporation with a long history of delivering products on time as predicted ... and Butterfly Labs.
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A variation of this question is asked, on average, every few hours.
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