Congrats on finally getting accepted!

Celebrate with a bottle of:




It's pretty sweet. Almost like a dessert wine or liqueur.

I don't know if that's what the wikipedia article says and if it is then it's absolutely retarded.

Say your portfolio has an expected return of 5%.

Now you buy some risky assets to add to your portfolio.

If that addition to your portfolio fails to increase your expected return beyond 5% you've failed to optimize your portfolio.

If it's equal you now have a more volatile portfolio, if it drops below 5% you've lowered your profitability. In both cases you have not optimized anything. So anyone who calls those cases portfolio optimization probably has a degree in Economics.

If you've indeed optimized your portfolio then your expected return has gone above 5%. Your portfolio may now have become more volatile depending on your relative exposition to those "risky assets", but you have not increased the risk. Unless you are talking about marginal probabilities, which would be nonsense considering that we are talking about an aggregate, a portfolio.

Depends on the timeline. Pretty sure Google killed Yahoo. Netflix/YT killed TV. Amazon killed retailers. Apple killed BlackBerry. Facebook killed MySpace.

And I can blindly promise you that all of those will eventually be killed as well because of arrogance and unwillingness to change.


I have no doubt that Bitcoin will last for at least a hundred years at this point, perhaps much much longer because of our increasing lifespans. And I have no doubt that it will become the global default SoV and MoE and remain as such for a very long time. But as time goes on new problems arise.


But that's a different argument to mine (for alts and diversification) anyways. I'm not a fan of "herp derp look at me I'm faster because nobody uses me" cryptos. I only care about alts that are budding companies with unique utilization of tokens.



That's a fair point. I haven't considered transaction type shitcoins as experiments for future upgrades to Bitcoin itself.

This is why I'm not interested in listing individual coins.

There is no doubt that Bitcoin will remain at the top as the dollar AND gold of the new world. But you'd have to have gone through life blindfolded to not realize that altcoins will not be disappearing.

The more the market grows the more players will compete to create unique solutions outside of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin will be what you want to get to store value and what you will be using to spend your money.

Alts will be focused more on utility of individual applications, products or other problems.
You don't want to keep your proof of participation in e.g. a hedge fund in Bitcoin because those Bitcoins are supposed to be used within the fund to generate profits. So you need a token to denominate your relative share. Just to name a second example. Tokens allow for unique solutions that Bitcoin itself can not.


Whether or not those tokens will be on the Bitcoin blockchain or not is a completely different story.


Although it's clear that they will not exclusively be due to more specialized solutions in other places, e.g. Python wrappers on other chains that allow for much more streamlined data science solutions.

Sure, you could say that they could have implemented that same functionality on Bitcoin. But they chose not to.

If you don't like it go and implement it on Bitcoin yourself.

But stop pretending that everybody trying to create something is a scammer, this thread should know better than that.


Either way, if all of the thousands of projects were outright scams they would quickly self-destruct and disappear within a number of years after every last idiot got burnt, so why even care?



If you're too lazy to do your research or simply don't care that's alright. But you don't have to buy anything to learn about the future today. You can look at Tesla even if you hate electric cars and then proceed to realize that automation is coming and you can start imagining what that entails.


But the arguments against altcoins so far are riddled with ignorance and the same fundamentally flawed assumptions. They assume that everything is a Ripple (centralized shitty clone) or BitConnect (obvious 100% scam) tier scams.


Basically, every argument against altcoins in the past two days can be summed up with:

- Tesla is a scam because we already have cars
- Automation doesn't exist
- If it actually exists then just do it with old cars then everybody who dares do it on different types of cars is a scammer , never mind that they are the people putting in the hours. If it's not on old cars it's a scam that distracts from progress

Again, you seem to be under the impression that out of the thousands of shitcoins every single one is trying to copy Bitcoin and you couldn't be further from the truth.
I have been and will keep saying that most shitcoins (that are around today) will go to zero because they're run by con artists, shitheads, retards, good people with good ideas but lack of experience to see them through and so on.

But there certainly are unique solutions that can and will solve equity in a better way than the stock market does. Which again, you denominate in USD (BTC) while you own stock (shitcoin).
They're also infinitely superior to traditional means of fundraising (thus allowing more people to start businesses as the market matures) and they're better at aligning the interests of the investor with those of the entrepreneur by unlocking "developer tokens" based on success/time. If you locked up Bitcoin they would get free money, if they only have their own shitcoin unlocked then they have to make sure it will work to be profitable.

And who decided that altcoins have to "solve a computer science problem"? You couldn't be any more arbitrary with that point. Just because the sun provides us with life doesn't mean we don't need lamps "because they don't create life", they still glow you know? And in places where the sun doesn't shine.

Yes it is 100% false. In a casino the more games you play the higher the probability becomes that you lose, period. You can absolutely not compare a market where you can freely choose how you interact with it to a casino. The expected value of a casino is STRICTLY NEGATIVE for the player. The expected value for a trader depends on the trader. And again, false assumption that all alts are the same. Do you think all people are the same too?

There are shitcoins that are trying to do what Bitcoin does, which fit your description.

And then there are some genuinely unique solutions. Not going to shill in the WO thread, but you're missing the bigger picture.


You are essentially suggesting that Amazon & co are worthless shit companies because they are just another shitty money grabbing website during the dot com bubble. The internet would be better off without more websites.

Heck, it's not even just that either. You are also simultaneously suggesting that stocks are useless because the USD would be much better off without them.

If you fail to see the potential value of tokens then you clearly don't know much about traditional markets. Or you got burnt so hard that you're demonizing the entire space now. Or you've literally only seen Beeeeconnneeeeeeeeeeeect etc. Not sure what causes your extremist views but they are not inline with reality.


And your last assertion is strictly false as well. Every single casino is modeled in a way that increases the probability of depleting your money the more games you play. Even with the outright scammy shitcoins you can however outplay the market if you are willing to invest the time and have the skill, something that you won't be able to in a casino by design.

Technically using very words much same difference?

And then I will actually buy one as an ancient relic of the past.



Also:

Happy birthday LFC.

While true that we could denominate any number of metrics in tons of copper without those tons of copper physically existing, that point does not exactly apply to the definition of M2 (cash and liquid assets).

And yes, you certainly can use M2 in such a manner to estimate future Bitcoin prices based on different events (such as Bitcoin becoming the main used global currency, which is quite likely at this point because nobody wants to convert from one fiat to another, even implicitly without knowing, while shopping online with Paypal and losing money to exchange rates).

While precise estimates would require a more in depth analysis, the principle holds due the definition of M2 (for the M1 part) and the velocity of money models (for the M2\M1 = liquid assets) part of the definition.

Anything below 7 digits is undervalued relative to the price a decade or two from now.

A snowball effect where the global Economy adapts Bitcoin as its lifeblood could reasonably see 8 digits within a millenial's lifetime.

The $3m estimate we saw on this thread the other day only considered 10% of M2, so 8 digits are well within current parameters if fiat currencies implode OR the M2 growth rate persists.


If you throw in a century of economic growth then 9 digits could be plausible as well as follows:

Suppose Bitcoin absorbs 10% of M2 and the M2 growth rate of roughly 4% persists for a century.

That would imply 1.04^100 = 50.5x growth over 100 years.

That would bring the 10% estimate from 3m per Bitcoin to 151.5m per Bitcoin 100 years from now.


You'd have to factor out the printing presses, which could significantly drop this number.

But mid to high 8 digits seem anything but ridiculous before the year 2119.

Hyperwave might have some merit (although not here and now). But this guy is clearly retarded if he recommends a first buy in 17 months, hyperwave or not.

To the Murricans in this thread.

I understand that your capital gains tax rate depends on your absolute annual income and hodl duration. Is the income in that consideration your capital gains alone, your personal income from work, or your total income?

And what do sensible health care plans cost per month?

Yes, for every 1 Merit you get you gain 1 sMerit.



Also since I've seen some others do it and I have yuge humbleness.


Have I mentioned that I am the most humblest.

CSW is the Madoff of this time.

Is that a flashlight or am I just happy to see that article.

Very true, but way too late. Too many countries that are embracing it, so if the US outlaws it it'll turn itself into a shithole.

Note the missing flat period of the slowest MA. While fundamentals could very well prove your arrow correct (which wouldn't surprise me due to acceleration of adoption and FOMO), the technicals are telling a different story. Don't go 80x just yet and brace for impact.

@Elwar Glad to see you safe. Hope to hear your story soon (in as much detail as you can spare and as little necessary for OpSec).



My first thought when I saw him was "what a twat, no wonder people hate Republicans". Oh boy.

Who. Fucking. Cares.


Edit: Are those Binance coins really stuck for good? Or will they eventually be retrievable? In the former case I don't even care if it's a false flag (which I doubt). The more coins are out of circulation the more valuable the rest become.

Edit2: Of course they're not stuck. Would've been pretty weird for people capable of pulling this off fucking up so bad. Although it would've been hilarious.

I'm not much of a sports guy (I used to play some as a kid but I don't care much for watching others play). But I got invited to two of the sumo final tournaments and they were surprisingly intense. Even though the fights are extremely short they were never really boring. It's pretty interesting how they can go back and forth so much between who seems to be winning within such a short period.

Also, vegetarian food can be pretty damn good. I'll never give up on meat, but there are some fantastic dishes. African food in particular is really nice.