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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 10 (6.9%)
H2 2019 - 15 (10.3%)
H1 2020 - 27 (18.6%)
H2 2020 - 26 (17.9%)
H1 2021 - 12 (8.3%)
H2 2021 - 28 (19.3%)
H1 2022 - 6 (4.1%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.8%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 2 (1.4%)
2024 or Later - 15 (10.3%)
Total Voters: 145

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21287544 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
Ipwich
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May 13, 2019, 10:04:47 PM

And we finally bounce back again, this run is so fast, it could go to as high as $8 Grin Grin Grin.
I'm gonna sleep later but I'm sure with so much excitement now, it will give me a hard time to sleep.

Good morning everyone, I was never wrong with my price prediction this morning.

Welcome $8K, happy to finally have you here, please don't stay awhile, we want $9K next.
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fabiorem
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May 13, 2019, 10:05:09 PM

Where are the Vegetas? We are already at 8k.
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May 13, 2019, 10:05:18 PM

Curious to hear from r0ach.
micgoossens
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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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May 13, 2019, 10:10:14 PM

Curious to hear from r0ach.

Called him loudly

Only Echooooooooooooooo's
Last of the V8s
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Be a bank.


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May 13, 2019, 10:11:28 PM

Not chucking-out time at the homeless shelter yet.
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May 13, 2019, 10:12:40 PM

The Ghost. People do not want to buy and hold bitcoin
you can pump it and buy all 21000000 btc
Human fuckers .
ghosts do it now quickly !! the time Very fast . fuck this very small world
i can't wait this this fuckin dump and strong sell any more
come on


Why don’t you buy all the bitcoin’s yourself if it’s that easy to pump the price. Are you a fucking moron?

The Ghost. People do not want to sell and hold usd
you can dump it and sell all 21000000 btc
Human fuckers .
ghosts do it now quickly !! the time Very fast . fuck this very small world
i can't wait this this fuckin pump and strong buy any more
come on
micgoossens
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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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May 13, 2019, 10:13:24 PM

And we finally bounce back again, this run is so fast, it could go to as high as $8 Grin Grin Grin.
I'm gonna sleep later but I'm sure with so much excitement now, it will give me a hard time to sleep.

Good morning everyone, I was never wrong with my price prediction this morning.

Welcome $8K, happy to finally have you here, please don't stay awhile, we want $9K next.


Damn who Will be the first one with an on time Vegeta??
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May 13, 2019, 10:15:16 PM



via Imgflip Meme Generator
infofront
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May 13, 2019, 10:22:54 PM
Merited by micgoossens (1)

Curious to hear from r0ach.

I'm interested to know how his analog Bitcoin is performing compared to real Bitcoin.
micgoossens
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May 13, 2019, 10:29:47 PM

One Question

when 5-digits
micgoossens
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May 13, 2019, 10:31:26 PM

Curious to hear from r0ach.

I'm interested to know how his analog Bitcoin is performing compared to real Bitcoin.

Spend my last Sm cause of you 1666 horror merit count...

And cause of your continiously holding up with us MOONboys and taking good care of this amazing place

Cheers infofront
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May 13, 2019, 10:32:38 PM

One Question

when 5-digits

Would be very happy if we will see that 5 digit before the 1st half of the year ends.
Imagine if bitcoin will hit $10,000 by June, there will be bigger FOMO In the 2nd half of the year and we will see a new ATH this year.
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May 13, 2019, 10:40:12 PM

If you throw in a century of economic growth then 9 digits could be plausible as well as follows:

Suppose Bitcoin absorbs 10% of M2 and the M2 growth rate of roughly 4% persists for a century.

That would imply 1.04^100 = 50.5x growth over 100 years.

That would bring the 10% estimate from 3m per Bitcoin to 151.5m per Bitcoin 100 years from now.


These kind of valuations are highly flawed. If bitcoin ever absorbed even a fraction of "M2" growth it would be largely as a pure unit of account, not a store of value. In other words you'd (by definition of M2) be talking about BTC denominated bank deposit accounts and money market funds and all kinds of other fractional reserve derivatives.

Use of bitcoin as a unit of account is something hodlers tend to ignore. If bitcoin ever became a currency we would not be exchanging actual bitcoins, but bitcoin denominated credit just as we use arbitrary units of credit today. So you can't just divide random incumbent money supply figures by 21 million to get a price for a future BTC. Since it's limited in supply it's an asset and will always be an asset.

If you denominate, say, UK GDP in bitcoin then it's around 0.3 Trillion BTC. The GDP can be 0.3 Trillion BTC even though there are not that many bitcoins in existence.
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May 13, 2019, 10:57:16 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZKrQwNAhEU I will not part with a single coin
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May 13, 2019, 10:57:52 PM

If you throw in a century of economic growth then 9 digits could be plausible as well as follows:

Suppose Bitcoin absorbs 10% of M2 and the M2 growth rate of roughly 4% persists for a century.

That would imply 1.04^100 = 50.5x growth over 100 years.

That would bring the 10% estimate from 3m per Bitcoin to 151.5m per Bitcoin 100 years from now.


These kind of valuations are highly flawed. If bitcoin ever absorbed even a fraction of "M2" growth it would be largely as a pure unit of account, not a store of value. In other words you'd (by definition of M2) be talking about BTC denominated bank deposit accounts and money market funds and all kinds of other fractional reserve derivatives.

Use of bitcoin as a unit of account is something hodlers tend to ignore. If bitcoin ever became a currency we would not be exchanging actual bitcoins, but bitcoin denominated credit just as we use arbitrary units of credit today. So you can't just divide random incumbent money supply figures by 21 million to get a price for a future BTC. Since it's limited in supply it's an asset and will always be an asset.

If you denominate, say, UK GDP in bitcoin then it's around 0.3 Trillion BTC. The GDP can be 0.3 Trillion BTC even though there are not that many bitcoins in existence.


Maybe flawed, but only partially. If bonds are issued, then this is not a unit of account, but an actual asset that contributes to the overall size of assets, is it not?
Bond market in US is 82tril, global-above 100 tril.
I can redeem a bond and get currency/cash.

Analogy: water in the lake is still a part of water present on planet earth.
BTCMILLIONAIRE
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May 13, 2019, 11:00:34 PM

If you throw in a century of economic growth then 9 digits could be plausible as well as follows:

Suppose Bitcoin absorbs 10% of M2 and the M2 growth rate of roughly 4% persists for a century.

That would imply 1.04^100 = 50.5x growth over 100 years.

That would bring the 10% estimate from 3m per Bitcoin to 151.5m per Bitcoin 100 years from now.


These kind of valuations are highly flawed. If bitcoin ever absorbed even a fraction of "M2" growth it would be largely as a pure unit of account, not a store of value. In other words you'd (by definition of M2) be talking about BTC denominated bank deposit accounts and money market funds and all kinds of other fractional reserve derivatives.

Use of bitcoin as a unit of account is something hodlers tend to ignore. If bitcoin ever became a currency we would not be exchanging actual bitcoins, but bitcoin denominated credit just as we use arbitrary units of credit today. So you can't just divide random incumbent money supply figures by 21 million to get a price for a future BTC. Since it's limited in supply it's an asset and will always be an asset.

If you denominate, say, UK GDP in bitcoin then it's around 0.3 Trillion BTC. The GDP can be 0.3 Trillion BTC even though there are not that many bitcoins in existence.

While true that we could denominate any number of metrics in tons of copper without those tons of copper physically existing, that point does not exactly apply to the definition of M2 (cash and liquid assets).

And yes, you certainly can use M2 in such a manner to estimate future Bitcoin prices based on different events (such as Bitcoin becoming the main used global currency, which is quite likely at this point because nobody wants to convert from one fiat to another, even implicitly without knowing, while shopping online with Paypal and losing money to exchange rates).

While precise estimates would require a more in depth analysis, the principle holds due the definition of M2 (for the M1 part) and the velocity of money models (for the M2\M1 = liquid assets) part of the definition.
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May 13, 2019, 11:03:56 PM

finally calmingly correcting... 7800... how low will we go?
micgoossens
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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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May 13, 2019, 11:05:50 PM

Wasn’t Asia gonna buy and fomo Roll Eyes

Meh

Into HODLsleep and see you brothers of the Wall tomorrow

Have a good holiday/trip @LFC

Cheers on these Nice moments Cheesy
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May 13, 2019, 11:06:38 PM

If you throw in a century of economic growth then 9 digits could be plausible as well as follows:

Suppose Bitcoin absorbs 10% of M2 and the M2 growth rate of roughly 4% persists for a century.

That would imply 1.04^100 = 50.5x growth over 100 years.

That would bring the 10% estimate from 3m per Bitcoin to 151.5m per Bitcoin 100 years from now.


These kind of valuations are highly flawed. If bitcoin ever absorbed even a fraction of "M2" growth it would be largely as a pure unit of account, not a store of value. In other words you'd (by definition of M2) be talking about BTC denominated bank deposit accounts and money market funds and all kinds of other fractional reserve derivatives.

Use of bitcoin as a unit of account is something hodlers tend to ignore. If bitcoin ever became a currency we would not be exchanging actual bitcoins, but bitcoin denominated credit just as we use arbitrary units of credit today. So you can't just divide random incumbent money supply figures by 21 million to get a price for a future BTC. Since it's limited in supply it's an asset and will always be an asset.

If you denominate, say, UK GDP in bitcoin then it's around 0.3 Trillion BTC. The GDP can be 0.3 Trillion BTC even though there are not that many bitcoins in existence.


Maybe flawed, but only partially. If bonds are issued, then this is not a unit of account, but an actual asset that contributes to the overall size of assets, is it not?
Bond market in US is 82tril, global-above 100 tril.
I can redeem a bond and get currency/cash.

Analogy: water in the lake is still a part of water present on planet earth.

In theory it works like that but in practice it doesn't. Even in the Bretton Woods system there was a "notional" convertibility to gold. But there was still far more currency in circulation than there was gold in existence. The value of gold was simply pegged to a multiple of the dollar ($30 I think).

Lets say you had 1 bitcoin and you issued a bitcoin backed bond. You now have 2 effective bitcoins in circulation - the real one and the bond. The original doesn't cease to exist just because it's backing a bond. Similarly, crypto exchanges inflate the bitcoin money supply. We deposit our bitcoin on exchanges and they create these "synthetic" bitcoins for us to trade. Meanwhile the deposited BTC are still in circulation on the blockchain.

People tend to think that they're "locked away" and out of circulation, but they're not. The new synthetic ones are added to the supply. The exchange can do what they want with the deposits - it just depends on the contractural terms.

So the "21 million" limit is not really a limit. The bitcoin supply can be expanded in an unlimited way and will be simply through its use as a pure unit of account, same as any other asset.
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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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May 13, 2019, 11:08:54 PM

Binance hacker is up $16m this week... 🙊

https://twitter.com/cryptobull/status/1128057363305574401?s=21

BTC can go fast Cheesy
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