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121  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 19, 2020, 11:52:39 AM
I tested the address with some dust and that transaction is happily sitting there unconfirmed so definitely an issue at the Bitstamp end.  

That might be the reason. That test transaction might need to confirm first.

Nah the transactions aren’t linked.  The first transaction is from Bitstamp and the second transaction is from my wallet.  

Maybe your socialist government stole them and called it a tax.

Yeah. It's gone. Buy moar.

My socialist government that eliminated Covid?  Oh yeah, that one.  

My joke wasn't about politics even if maybe Arrie was... As a matter of fuck (yeah) my socialist government hasn't done very well about covid... so I don't think that's a political matter either.

Glad you got your corns safe as expected Smiley
122  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 19, 2020, 10:08:25 AM
I tested the address with some dust and that transaction is happily sitting there unconfirmed so definitely an issue at the Bitstamp end.  

That might be the reason. That test transaction might need to confirm first.

Nah the transactions aren’t linked.  The first transaction is from Bitstamp and the second transaction is from my wallet. 

Maybe your socialist government stole them and called it a tax.

Yeah. It's gone. Buy moar.
123  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2020, 07:58:08 PM
25k is much too close for me to grab a LearJet and pop out right now....

Is it sad, or stupid, that I'm trying to rationalize buying a much larger strip of land for our ranch, and building a private runway, or helicopter landing pad, at the very least ?

..and a spaceport at $100K, right?

that said...if you work for a paycheck and your current work is not necessarily a dream job, when to retire?
options:
1. your btc is worth 10 year salary
2. your btc is worth 30 year salary
3. your btc is worth 100 year salary
4. (just for JJG) your btc is worth X year salary, but you consider btc price at a 200wk average, where X is 20-30 years.

3 at the very minimum to have some margin... other than that is pie in the sky.
124  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2020, 07:18:40 PM
Remember that time Dave Portnoy sold all his Bitcoin @ ~$11,500 and took a loss?  Grin

Barely... it has been some years since... oh it was like a couple months ago? LOL
125  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2020, 03:20:22 PM
126  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2020, 02:05:51 PM
127  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2020, 12:55:08 PM
Stop looking for alternatives. Bitstamp has been the reference for ages.

as one who was late to the WO party, and at the risk of being seen as even stupider than i actually am, why it it bitstamp for the official WO price?

be gentle on me im having a bad day with everyone explaining all my mistakes with exchanges *sniff*

actually i do like being proven wrong, who wants to go through life with erroneous information? keep those corrections to my mindset coming. although my paying attention is pretty hit and miss.

It's the oldest still running exchange and, most importantly, it doesn't allow leverage so it doesn't have those liquidation local flash spikes that others do (looking at Bitmex/Bitfinex and even Kraken here). All in all, it is the most solid/honest/real market price.
128  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 14, 2020, 02:11:49 PM
it's a fallacy, there is no such fucking thing as intrinsic value, it doesn't exist. See subjective theory of value

... and then maybe ponder for a while how it is the the human brain that "endows" things with value, that were previously without such a property, i.e. not intrinsic.
Agreed, things are valuable because of our subjective view and many times this depends on what we can do with them, a perfect and modern example of this was oil, for thousands of years farmers excavated in order to try to find underground water and cursed their luck when they found oil, why? Because we could do nothing with it and as such it was not valuable, but then we learned how to do something with it and farmers went from cursing their luck to dance in happiness when they found oil.

Another good example of subjective value and how it changes depending on our circumstances is a bottle of water and 10k dollars in a bank account, a bottle of water is not very valuable if you are in a city and the 10k dollars will be of more use in those circumstances, but if you are lost in the desert then the value of that bottle of water increases dramatically while the 10k dollars in your bank account become useless during those circumstances.

... nice examples. Demonstrates that value is dependent on the spatial location and temporal situation of the human ... i.e. not intrinsic to the objects.

Like cigarettes in a prison, oxygen at the top of a mountain, water in a desert, fuel for someone who does/doesn't have an engine, etc, etc,

For 10k you can get someone to carry your water bottle

In fact, no.... Not even for millions... depending on location/circumstances. No matter if its intrinsic value is almost negligible.

Scarcity (supply) combined with need (demand) will always have way more influence in PRICE than any "intrinsic value" (which is only ONE factor of both supply and demand)  theoretical bullshit.
129  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 13, 2020, 12:06:20 AM
...snipped...

Your attempt to lock bitcoin into some kind of "intrinsic value" framework seems to either fail and refuse to account for current BTC price prediction model and/or attempts to such framework is worth attempting to lock into bitcoin, as if it were a mature asset class.

Sure, we might look at the lines on the stock to flow model and see that bitcoins price goes above and below such price trajectory lines, so perhaps those stock to flow lines could be characterized as estimations of intrinsic value or the price that bitcoin is worth today, approximately.  Perhaps?  Perhaps?

I know it sounds weird but isn't this what bitcoin is - a decentralized network which runs on the protocol adopted by 'general consensus' using the code adopted by 'general consensus' which is regularly updated and improved by 'general consensus'.

So why shouldn't we calculate the intrinsic value of bitcoin (the currency) with the 'general consensus' approach as well? If we continuosly look into the market, it is very easy to feel the nerves of the traders. So if market shows excessive price support at the certain price such that trend line constantly reverse from that point then we can safely assume that most of the traders feel bitcoin should at least worth this much.

Currently like I said in previous post, the range of $17-17.5K shows the most appropriate instrinsic value. Even yesterday, bitcoin had short-term downtrend but as soon as it came in this range, it experienced strong bounce back and once again started gaining premium. Now it is almost $18.75 and gaining.

can not really believe we've still got muppets coming here whining about "intrinsic value" ... shouldn't you be on a gold bug forum somewhere?

it's a fallacy, there is no such fucking thing as intrinsic value, it doesn't exist. See subjective theory of value

... and then maybe ponder for a while how it is the the human brain that "endows" things with value, that were previously without such a property, i.e. not intrinsic.

Oh yeah, Intrinsic value do indeed "exist" and it is USUALLY important and greatly influence the price of an item.

But you are mostly (for all practical purposes) right... subjective theory of value is what really counts to determine the actual market price of an item no matter what its "intrinsic/objective theoretical value" might be.
130  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 10, 2020, 06:44:36 PM
What do you think would most probably apply in your case for having triggered a confirmation alert?

It's just automatic because of kraken.com.

Even if that were the only reason I would think it is reasonable to trigger a confirmation alert considering it is both an international tx and a crypto exchange (could be used to extract funds in an identity theft staged attack).

I would certainly be worried if it would trigger an automatic lock of account just for that reason alone which, OTH is something that they certainly SHOULD do in some exceptional cases ie: profile of a 80+ old retired woman that never previously did anything other than receive her pension, pay some utility bills and extract a bit of cash money monthly... and all of a sudden decides to transfer most of her balance to kraken.com. -> Lock, ask for confirmation and additional information and unlock if everything is good.
131  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 10, 2020, 06:00:45 PM
I got an email from my bank. "We tried to phone you to clear some issues with a wire you made in the past days, but we didn't manage to talk to you." Of course. I had it switched off. So I called back, but the line mysteriously dropped after the person on the other end said "let me check this... wait a minute...". Twice.

I already had a hunch what it was about, but of course I thought I'd play dumb to extract as much info as possible. An hour later, I tried calling for the third time. At last, I get through to someone who can actually explain.

The problem was with a wire I made to Kraken. Not a big amount by any means - something in the ballpark of Bob's recent addiction buys*  Grin

Bank - "We just want to make sure you actually ordered the wire."

Me - "Why? I make dozens of wires, it's the first time..." (Actually not the first: they called once upon a time when I moved most of my fiat to another bank because they pissed me off - but that was to beg: please don't please don't.)

Bank - "I don't know, it's like an automatic system flag... well, it's to some kraken.com."

Me - (Aha!) "I see. So what's the issue?"

Bank - "No issue, sir. We just want to make sure it was actually you who wired the money."

Me - "I did. But now I'm worrying. Is this a scam site or something?"

Bank - "It is some cryptocurrency site, I think... but as I said, it's just an automatic flag. Nothing to worry about, sir."

Me - "What if Kraken sends some funds to me? Will the transfer get a flag too? Will the incoming wire be blocked?" (Slightly implying - should I close my business with you altogether?)

Bank - "Oh no, sir. Incoming transfers are never stopped. There might be some formal issue with outgoing transfers once in a while, but never the other way round."

Me - "I am afraid. I don't want any problems, you see."

Bank - "Just an automatic flag, sir. Thank you."



Things are stirring up, gents. Brace yourselves.


Maybe you are reading too much into it. Banks have alert triggerings of all sorts. Ie:

- Amounts significantly over the usual for your profile.
- Abnormaly high number of tx's.
- Origin/destination to flagged accounts (ie: Accounts completely blacklisted, suspicious accounts, Bitcoin exchanges?).
- Tx's to/from other countries (this one is the main one when it is not clearly justified considering your informed profile).
- etc etc....

And combinations of the above.

Depending on the alert triggered it may involve a lock of account, a request of confirmation, and/or a request for additional information.

There are several reasons why banks NEED to do this:

1- To protect themselves from huge fines for not supervising money flow in accordance to KYC/AML and other regulations they are subject to.
2- To protect clients from having their funds extracted by hackers, etc...
3- To know what their clients are doing to detect trends and business opportunities.

etc....

The staff you talked to probably don't know what was exactly what triggered your alert, they just follow procedure (just confirmation in this case) even if they may have some idea based on their previous experience from similar "events".

What do you think would most probably apply in your case for having triggered a confirmation alert?
132  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2020, 09:50:48 PM
Man, WO is so weird lately!

?
133  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 05, 2020, 04:04:17 AM
12776

I think it is again time for my yearly update:

CoinATM 2020 EOY stats update: 12776 crypto ATMs installed worldwide

Please first read my last update (one year ago) as this post is a follow-up from there: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg53354275#msg53354275

But.. but... it is not EOY yet?!

I know! And that is the thing... This year the amount of crypto ATM's worldwide not only has reached the DOUBLING milestone again (only last year it wasn't reached - only 50% increase) but it has managed to do so earlier!

We started 2020 with 6375 ATM's and we have already DOUBLED that amount in just 11 months. Not only that, but current DAILY growth is at a whoooping 42 new instalations... yeah, per each fucking day!!

I don't think this time there's much more to observe/say about it... rates seem to have been improving in some areas, not so much in other... blah blah... just focus on the awesome growth rate that it means to have doubled the installed base in just 11 months.

This is fine. Go Bitcoin, go!

P.S.: More info at: https://coinatmradar.com/
134  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 03, 2020, 11:13:44 AM
I am wondering... if infofront doesn't come to replace the poll before the next few months... will it be the first one with ALL answers right? Wink
135  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 01, 2020, 08:48:25 PM
Regarding frugality: once you go frugal, it is difficult to come back...everything looks darn expensive, causing buyer's remorse.
On the other hand, giving descendants a 50-100 year rein in luxury-why bother? Nothing productive comes out of it, typically.

As for how much to pass on to your kids, Warren Buffett once offered a good rule of thumb: the perfect amount to leave to your kids, he told Fortune in 1986, is "enough money so that they would feel they could do anything, but not so much that they could do nothing."

Source: CNBC Make It

Which is a stupid statement/decision btw. I mean, If I were given a few million dollars without having ever made any effort maybe I would probably just settle on that and just do nothing but "live comfortably". But... if I were given one of the biggest fortunes in the world, I would probably focus on both trying to be the #1 and change the world for the better. YMMV.

He should better focus on educating their heirs to go on with his "project" when he is gone than just thinking about how much resources he should left them as if that was more important than the former.

That being said, it will be nice if he leaves the most of it to charity....

I always liked the idea of being "a well off person" and being able to leave a large amount of money for my kids in a special account.  They wouldn't know about it until they were maybe 35.  The hope is that they would spend the first 35 years of their life working and grinding through this thing called life.  After gaining access to life changing money at 35 they would then know what it is like to live without it therefore, creating a deeper meaning and understanding of the windfall.  At least in theory...

Not sure if 35 years has any meaning, or maybe 20, or it depends, or whatever. It's all just factors. Also not sure if it would be better if they knew or not. Maybe by the time they reach 35 they have been so burned by life that it wouldn't make any difference.... but merit for at least having had some thoughts about it. It's surely a very complex thing and probably there's no better or right thing. Surely one subject where every Mileage Might Vary, and even then no certaintity.
136  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 01, 2020, 08:09:50 PM
Regarding frugality: once you go frugal, it is difficult to come back...everything looks darn expensive, causing buyer's remorse.
On the other hand, giving descendants a 50-100 year rein in luxury-why bother? Nothing productive comes out of it, typically.

As for how much to pass on to your kids, Warren Buffett once offered a good rule of thumb: the perfect amount to leave to your kids, he told Fortune in 1986, is "enough money so that they would feel they could do anything, but not so much that they could do nothing."

Source: CNBC Make It

Which is a stupid statement/decision btw. I mean, If I were given a few million dollars without having ever made any effort maybe I would probably just settle on that and just do nothing but "live comfortably". But... if I were given one of the biggest fortunes in the world, I would probably focus on both trying to be the #1 and change the world for the better. YMMV.

He should better focus on educating their heirs to go on with his "project" when he is gone than just thinking about how much resources he should left them as if that was more important than the former. Or put rules on the usage of those resources.

That being said, it will be nice if he leaves the most of it to charity....
137  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 28, 2020, 07:11:38 PM

But but... We *need* to watch our corns! Because of... things.
138  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 25, 2020, 02:11:32 PM
Any forecast as to what to expect if the ATH is broken? . continue as normal, big spike, dump??

Yes.
139  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 25, 2020, 02:08:20 PM
Or maybe not JUST yet

Are we poor again?!
140  Economy / Speculation / Re: [WO] Overinvested in money on: November 25, 2020, 11:03:49 AM
overinvested in bitcoin

It’s funny.  I never hear people say, “overinvested in (dollars|euros|whatever)”.  ;-)

Can one be overinvested in money?  Is that like allocating too much cash in your portfolio?


Firing at random, for I am now something like 20 pages behind WO.  ATH yet?

Yes, from a financial perspective, you can be overinvested in $, € or whatever kind of asset. It's all just about balancing/hedging a portfolio. YMMV.

With Bitcoin, due to its extraordinarie appreciation over time, it is somewhat easy to become "overinvested"... even if that was intended or not.

I am probably "overinvested" in Bitcoin currently... but YOLO. Again, YMMV.
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