incoming selling wave? time will tell....
BTC very correlated with the share markets right now. I don't like this, but a bounce may be in order if FED comes out all guns blazing tonight. |
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Are we really gonna see an international market crash because of the virus?
It seems kinda fishy.
As I said above the virus is not relevant any more, it has just exposed all the shit out there in the market. The shit being all the crap central banks have fucked up since 2008 in an attempt to kick the can further. All these issues were here well before the virus, the virus has just been the catalyst this time around. |
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No need to act like panicking stock boyz who cry like babies at a 5 percent drop, Bitcoiners were built for big swings. Its all just noise on the way to 100k.
Yes we are definitely going to 100k and this current global rout will probably even increase the speed that we get there. Money printing on the way. Maybe global pandemic and a lot of the hoopla and hype about that can allow for the economy to correct, to some extent without having to engage in money printing? If the global economy goes through a major correction, then it is merely blamed on a pandemic, and at the same time, there is an ability to reign in bullshit irresponsibilities in regards to various fiats, no? Why does global pandemic automatically result in more currency printing when allowing a crash can actually accomplish similar kinds of corrective mechanisms that are actually needed in terms of allowing bubbles to play themselves out in free market kinds of ways, no? I am not saying that bitcoin still would not do well in this situation, but I doubt that such a situation of a major correction in the fiat market (which seems to be far over due) automatically results in more printing, especially if there are many BIG players that realize that the overexuberance in money printing is way out of hand, anyhow. It is not like everyone in the regular fiat world is stupid in terms of engaging in various strategies to attempt to continue to prop matters up and to allow some corrections to play themselves out, especially if such corrections are merely born by poor people, even though the status quo power players might get stuck in policies that are hard to get out of on a quite frequent basis. For central banks, a correction is fine so long as credit (debt) is still being created by the private banks. If credit shrinks instead and hence the money supply with it, then we have deflation and that can not be tolerated for long. Deflation will destroy the modern monetary system and, governments and the institutions with it. Therefore, the CBs have to do what ever it takes to prevent this, and if they see credit creation decrease and even look like it is going negative they will print big time (and direct that printing where ever necessary) to try and get credit/debt going again. To understand why a decrease in credit creation is so deadly is to understand how money is created. Hint, the CBs don't create most of the money (only the cash component) they instead generally create cash reserves. It is the private banks who expand our money supply (97% of supply is private bank money. Also peasants are only allowed to use CB money in form of cash not electronic). In short if private bank money is not being created (through new debt) nobody will be able to pay the interest component because there is not enough money in the system to do so. So, this pandemic is a deflationary event, either through illness or panic, doesn't matter which. Therefore the CBs need to start printing those reserves up pronto to counter any deflation (contraction in private credit). We can agree to disagree. I just don't see the obvious link that continued outrageous levels of money printing is an automatic result of this, and I do see an economic slowdown as a possibility to reign matters in a bit. Sure, I am not saying that the powers that be, CB et al are NOT going to completely stop acting irresponsibly and even giving money away to the rich, but seems to me that global events (such as a pandemic crisis) can also create corrective opportunities that are more responsible than what the CBs et al would otherwise attempt to cause regular peeps and even the chinese to bear costs of the various earlier irresponsible of the money printers. Fair enough. All I'm saying is that I think the reason you can't see is because you probably don't know what money we actually use and how it is actually created. |
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These misleading mortality fake news stats have caused school girl hysteria for the feint of heart.
Case fatality(percent of cases confirmed by tests that die) is a silly stat when you arent testing most people. Infection fatality(what percent of all infections lead to death) is the true mortality rate.
Little school girls and old women have been alarmed bc they couldnt process the difference between case fatality rate in an environment where govs purposely dont test everyone, and infection fatality rate which as shown by the Diamond Princess is low even for people 20 years older than the average person.
The true percent of all people who get infected that die is much less than 1 percent. Probably just double or triple a bad flu season.
King Bitcoin isnt for the weak, the foolish, the soft, or the naive. Shorters who dont cover at this peak of silly panic will be rekt.
At this point the virus is no longer that relevant. In traditional markets, this initial virus sell off has now exposed all the band-aid fixes, and can kicks that CBs have been doing for the last 11 years. Today's (Asia's today) sell off is about these can kicks now coming undone. The virus was just the trigger, that's all, this thing has now morphed into another financial crisis just like 2008, and once again it is deflation that is scaring them. |
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No need to act like panicking stock boyz who cry like babies at a 5 percent drop, Bitcoiners were built for big swings. Its all just noise on the way to 100k.
Yes we are definitely going to 100k and this current global rout will probably even increase the speed that we get there. Money printing on the way. Maybe global pandemic and a lot of the hoopla and hype about that can allow for the economy to correct, to some extent without having to engage in money printing? If the global economy goes through a major correction, then it is merely blamed on a pandemic, and at the same time, there is an ability to reign in bullshit irresponsibilities in regards to various fiats, no? Why does global pandemic automatically result in more currency printing when allowing a crash can actually accomplish similar kinds of corrective mechanisms that are actually needed in terms of allowing bubbles to play themselves out in free market kinds of ways, no? I am not saying that bitcoin still would not do well in this situation, but I doubt that such a situation of a major correction in the fiat market (which seems to be far over due) automatically results in more printing, especially if there are many BIG players that realize that the overexuberance in money printing is way out of hand, anyhow. It is not like everyone in the regular fiat world is stupid in terms of engaging in various strategies to attempt to continue to prop matters up and to allow some corrections to play themselves out, especially if such corrections are merely born by poor people, even though the status quo power players might get stuck in policies that are hard to get out of on a quite frequent basis. For central banks, a correction is fine so long as credit (debt) is still being created by the private banks. If credit shrinks instead and hence the money supply with it, then we have deflation and that can not be tolerated for long. Deflation will destroy the modern monetary system and, governments and the institutions with it. Therefore, the CBs have to do what ever it takes to prevent this, and if they see credit creation decrease and even look like it is going negative they will print big time (and direct that printing where ever necessary) to try and get credit/debt going again. To understand why a decrease in credit creation is so deadly is to understand how money is created. Hint, the CBs don't create most of the money (only the cash component) they instead generally create cash reserves. It is the private banks who expand our money supply (97% of supply is private bank money. Also peasants are only allowed to use CB money in form of cash not electronic). In short if private bank money is not being created (through new debt) nobody will be able to pay the interest component because there is not enough money in the system to do so. So, this pandemic is a deflationary event, either through illness or panic, doesn't matter which. Therefore the CBs need to start printing those reserves up pronto to counter any deflation (contraction in private credit). |
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No need to act like panicking stock boyz who cry like babies at a 5 percent drop, Bitcoiners were built for big swings. Its all just noise on the way to 100k.
Yes we are definitely going to 100k and this current global rout will probably even increase the speed that we get there. Money printing on the way. |
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I am buying here some. I don't care if it goes lower. I can keep my sanity till it its $3k.
Why am I buying? Because I know for sure it will be back above $9k again. Might be tomorrow, might be next year but it will happen.
Vegeta will make a comeback.
Just think of all the printing the CBs will need to do to fix this mess. Next year we could easily be at 100k. |
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$7839 How much fucking lower are we going?  Whatever it is, it ain't going to be good. I reckon 6500. Which is really not that bad considering last years low. |
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Not looking good. I still think target is 6500 then maybe 200 weekly at 6. Not fucking liking this that's for sure. I much preferred 2016 but there wasn't a global crash going on then.
The problem is in a country like Italy ..in frigging full crisis mode...what are you gonna dump first? The easy to cash out, the speculative coin that you have made a profit on since you mined/bought or acquired such? Or stocks or bonds or cash (not have) or whatever to fill up your very needed, and like all of us, empty catastrophic/emergency fund? Everything is falling in this Black Swan Pandemic effect. My own 'bet' (dubious) is that IF the Stock Market 'manages' and the rest to somehow find a floor and go sideways for a few days to a week, BTC/Crypto will bounce back harder, like the Plan B Alternative. If, not BTC/Crypto is just another speculative asset and not in any way a 'store of value' and we will be like everyone else, stuck in a HODL pattern for say, years until it recovers like the other speculative assets stocks, etc. Sh*t that would suck! Doom or Boom and Chump or Champ time now boys and girls. Pucker up. This next week is likely to be the worst as that damn concept of 'Reality' hits us right in the nuts.  I don't like what you're saying, but find it hard to disagree with you. |
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Pity I missed all the TP/bidet/towel/ass-shit talk, I have a feeling that I would have thrived.
Can we elaborate on disposable baby wipes, now that oil is down please?
I've been using them for years.
Seriously, TP sucks.
Wipe off your ass perfectly clean (so you think) with TP, and then use a baby wipe.
You're welcome.
Basically it beats the shower and the hassle.
Especially if your ass is hairy.
Anyway, back to COV.
Here's a hint, have high levels of fiber in your diet and most often you don't need to wipe at all. Metamucil is a big help here. Metamucil, when I was fresh out of military service and got a job at the local hospital we used to give the older patients in the orthopedic department where I worked Metamucil. The thought of taking it now is just too close to those memories. I don't want to feel that old yet, although I'm sure it would give my poo a nice firm texture. I've been having it since my 20s. It's hard to get enough fiber in your diet so this stuff really helps. Good amount of fiber also helps with cholesterol and probably reduces bowel cancer. But honestly, the best thing is just being able to take a shit in under 30 seconds and require very little to no toilet paper. I would ignore your past experience if you can. |
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Not looking good. I still think target is 6500 then maybe 200 weekly at 6. Not fucking liking this that's for sure. I much preferred 2016 but there wasn't a global crash going on then.
Seems they only thing doing good today is cash under the bed
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semi-permanent plateau that would last for at least several years.
Not a chance. The central banks can not let a deflationary period happen. If the private banks can't keep credit creation going it is the end of our modern (crony) monetary system. There will be large amounts of printing, large amounts of stimulus, and all the other nice stuff we have experienced over the last 11 years. We may experience a dip for a while, but it won't last. Market bears think otherwise (note the timing BEFORE the correction), but it's just an opinion. That dude is thinking that we will eventually (within a decade, I assume) will revisit SP500 667. That would be gruesome. So far, his thesis (laid down 20 years ago re negative bond yields) is prescient. https://www.barrons.com/articles/s-p-500-could-test-2009-low-says-longtime-bear-1522957392and (more recent) https://www.barrons.com/articles/perma-bear-albert-edwards-sees-market-ice-age-looming-what-hes-worried-about-now-51581452731Gold, USD, CHF, BTC, digital fiat are all going to be in play. It's going to get crazy.
Man, I was so down to spending the next few years just working and, hopefully, getting wealthier by btc investment. Freaking fourth turning, right? All sensible no doubt. But the one thing everyone fails to understand is that fiat money is just a unit a measurement and the central banks and governments effectively control this unit of measurement. If they want to change the measurement of the S&P to 10,000 points, they can do it, it is within their power. See any country with hyperinflation. That's why these permabears are only right for short periods of time, they can't grasp the corruption of it all. The problem with boosting assets though is the real economy, it doesn't care what the unit of measurement is. The real economy only cares about the real value of its components, and the real economy is made up of labor (peasants). Labor owns very few assets so having the S&P at 10,000 does not help them. Capital (rich fucks) on the other hand don't give a shit about the real economy, because they own all the assets, which, thank you central banks is at a very high level. This all equals bigger wealth divide. So the permabears are right about the real economy, but wrong about the fiat numbers/units of measurements. |
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Pity I missed all the TP/bidet/towel/ass-shit talk, I have a feeling that I would have thrived.
Can we elaborate on disposable baby wipes, now that oil is down please?
I've been using them for years.
Seriously, TP sucks.
Wipe off your ass perfectly clean (so you think) with TP, and then use a baby wipe.
You're welcome.
Basically it beats the shower and the hassle.
Especially if your ass is hairy.
Anyway, back to COV.
Here's a hint, have high levels of fiber in your diet and most often you don't need to wipe at all. Metamucil is a big help here. |
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Well bitcoin may be down 10%. But oil is down 21% and S&P futures are down 4.5%. I wonder how much longer the central banks will remain silent.
Edit: here come the 7s. whos ready to panic
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semi-permanent plateau that would last for at least several years.
Not a chance. The central banks can not let a deflationary period happen. If the private banks can't keep credit creation going it is the end of our modern (crony) monetary system. There will be large amounts of printing, large amounts of stimulus, and all the other nice stuff we have experienced over the last 11 years. We may experience a dip for a while, but it won't last. |
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Looks like Luc was right about heading down to test 200wma  Yeah, I think we have a head and shoulders on the chart. Target is 6500 again |
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Here's what you do if you run out of toilet paper. Jump in the damn shower.
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Oh what now ?! Sheeeit.
Fuck.
EDIT: Observing $8,771 and falling.
I know right. It's like this shit just won't end. Halving will take out some supply which will be good long term, but this short term crap is annoying the hell out of me. Looks like a head and shoulders developing on the daily, if that happens price target would be back to the 6500 area again. |
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A lot of mights and mays in that. Can't wait till we get some solid research papers out on this. |
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Also remember redundancy can be expensive: When the power goes out you don't need to have a generator big enough to run your house for a month. What you need is enough power for the fridge, a lamp (really nice when it gets dark), the fans for your wood stove (in winter), cell phone charging (surprisingly little), a weber grill, and a coffee machine (because waiting in line for coffee sucks). I've done this for a week, it's really not that big of a deal and having cold beer, a light at night, and coffee in the morning goes a long way towards feeling civilized and appropriately smug at those without.
So.... Keep things in perspective. Try not to be part of the mass migration herd, either be the first one out (tricky to time) or wait a week till things settle down.
Or solar + a Tesla battery and pretty much run your household as normal Solar hot water is the go too. Those tube things they use these days are pretty damn awesome. |
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