Raoul Pal is an even bigger imbecile than I thought he was after he started his nonsense ETH to $40K shite 4-5 months ago:  He has 1 BTC? Literally less than 99% of us in WO? Why did ANY crypto Youtuber ever invite this absolute fraud onto their channels? He never believed in BTC at all it seems to me. He is more concerned with being liked on Twitter / YouTube. What a fucking douche. There's lots of these people. They're the kind who would of sided with the Nazis because it was a good trade. |
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Blood on the streets yet?
I think that happens over the weekend |
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I wonder if there has been much LTH selling during this drop?
Looks like we'll be getting that drop down to 30k this weekend. Things are looking brutal.
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Bond market and other measures signally a massive policy error by the Fed here. Which it is because this inflation we are seeing is from supply issues rather than then the free money sloshing around. I expect we'll hear some softer words from the Fed next week.
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At this moment BTC is not even 2x since the all time high of 2017
But its 10 times higher than its lows after that. DCA as long as you have an income and everything is fine. |
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Is the market bled out yet?
Many "want" $30k, we're still $8k above that.
It doesn't look like a real "buyers capitulation" yet (like 2019) and the daily isn't closed yet, too.
There's still room for downity, but after that this short bear market should be done.
Fuck derivatives, by the way!
Well, 8k fall ain't too difficult, but it feels like we are near a bottom and same for traditional markets. Might have to stop looking at the price for a while though, maybe that bottom willl come in then. |
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I am somewhat dubious about the Glassnode conclusions: 1. they assume that every transaction is associated with a buy/sell action - clearly this is not true 2. they ignore exchange holdings when calculating LTH vs STH 3. they (obviously) cannot see the specifics of exchange buys and sells (as they are off-chain); 4. exchange volumes are highly likely to include the same coins changing hands multiple times - its not a one buy and then move off exchange type activity Accordingly while I think it is very interesting it is easy to read too much into it. Well yes, but your not looking for perfect accuracy you're looking for consistency in the data over long time frames. This is what gives it relevance, and the chart posted matches up nicely with their other data saying retail did not move in strongly on the increase to 69k and LTHs did not unload coins in great numbers. |
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Well, the events described in this post happened. There was a short/long squeeze on the market and a further drop in prices below significant support levels: Is there any good reason that the steady rise/recovery of mining difficulty is not visible at all in the latest evolution of the price? I mean that we're almost back to all-times-high-difficulty and nobody seem to care. It makes me think that this movement could be a trap, but maybe it's just my hopes talking. Zoom out on the chart, and you'll see that it is indeed a trap. The monetary system is designed to have constant inflation (not deflation i.e it's not possible to suffer a great depression), this means that long-term asset prices must go up. Take the S&P500, look at the last 30 years and imagine you bought every week no matter what the price was. >99% of those buys would be in massive profit right now. The system is designed for up and up only long-term, buy regularly every week for decades and retire with craploads of money. |
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Prepair for a possible max pain weekend dump to $35k and a wick to $30k.
Possible, but I think that would depend on how the traditonal markets do tonight. And I think it is important to note that the main indexes are at key support. The market already knows that we have more than 4 rate hikes coming this year with cessation of all QE. It's possible that everything is near or at being fully priced in and the thing with rate hike cycles is that they are not actually bad for the markets. The bad part is what we have already had, and history shows that after that is done, markets go up with interest rates. |
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C'mon Bitcon, you know, do something...  Anyways, where're Saylor's and Bukele's BTFD announcements? Right about time to buy the dip, girls!  Probably blown their wads already on all the previous dips down from 69k. |
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Any bets on where this is going to end? Need to change the poll.
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Enough daily fake outs  Same shit that was happening in the high 40s a few weeks ago. What surprises me about this dip is that apparently there was very little new retail that bought from May to Nov last year. That move was made by LTH, and vast majority of that was not sold, and infact they LTH are buying again. So who is doing the selling to keep dropping the price, has spot buying/selling been made completely redundant now and these moves are purely from the futures markets? Had to look up LTH..... and that is be called yours truly.. (trying to keep the secret going somewhat, It's long term holders)......even though I am ONLY buying modestly... .,. and ONLY upon the price going down each $1k... been buying since around $59k (maybe even $60k.. can't remember-- it was so long ago).. then sold a few when we bounced from $41k back up to $52k-ish.. and then back to buying again.. down to $39k.. just had one more buy order triggered.... Next comes $38k, then $37k, then $36k.. etc etc... I suppose that all of those count, even though not really considered to be a lot.., at least relatively speaking.. even though it has b een adding up to a higher BTC balance than I used to have at these prices previously... When were we here? Around early August on the way back up from $28,800, no? and also briefly touched upon these $39ks in mid-September too, no? Hate to reward the bears with the BTC price going down.. but what can any of us do, except wait for the momentum to change back to UPpity.. at some point.. hopefully its coming. Hate to have some dweeb like Biodom saying I told you so... hahahahahaha.. or worse yet Raja_MBZ or proudhon or even billynocoiner... there are gradations, of course... and surely prefer UPpity and punishing the bears as much as possible.. but if there is froth needing to be purged.. so be it.. who are we (or should I say "I") to say? Gonna be crying all day long.. while buying every $1k that the price goes down, until running out of money.. crying the whole time...  I hear ya. |
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It is amazing that the only coins that moved in this 2 month bear market are bought in the last 6 months, a.k.a. short term hodlers. Hence these guys alone are selling. Poor weak hands, they must be screaming like little girls while selling. I just wonder whether there is a single long term hodler to sell in panic now that we are 30K below the ATH 2 months ago? Probably none. And another thing. Is there a single daily trader, who can boast that he is in profit in the last year? Probably none. At least the stats show only liquidations and endless series of stop losses. It sucks to be a trader. But where are they getting the coins? In the move from May to Nov most of the buyers were LTH with little selling history. And there is buying by the LTH again at these levels. The term Short Term Hodlers (STH) combines the daily traders and new wanna-be hodlers who bought in the range 40K-60K. These were coins from Long Term Holders (LTH) who always sell on the way up, and not so much on the way down. Humans are predictable, so when a new investor sees his profit erased in the blink of an eye, he just can't help and sell on the break even in the best case. Glassnode stats clearly show that the movement of old coins itensified during the 2 bull runs in 2021 and went to 0% during the 2 dumps. All these bear wet dreams of cheap coins will soon die in ashes, because without the aid of old coins dumped on the market the crashes will be insignificant like the current one. This is quite different from the bear market in 2018, when the old coins flooded the market during the run to 20K and the recovery to 12K. Now, if we assume that the current situation is a big bear manipulation, then these must be new players, completely ignorant regarding Bitcoin specifics. They can't bring the price down simply by selling each time there is a small pump, like with stonks. They need a help from the old coins, which could be lured only above 60K. But then they might be surprised again by the lack of such event, since the hodlers are waiting for 100K and fewer will sell at 60K than in 2021. So it is a win-win for the bulls even mid-term, not to mention long term. This is what I'm talking about, but being that during the move up from the 30k mid last year we didn't get much LTH selling. How have the STH so many coins to sell at the moment? It seems like we should be at or near the bottom, going off the supply metrics, but price still going lower. Futures must be playing a part by adding artificial selling supply. I agree with your mid-term long-term, but if we get back down to last years lows, I'll be pretty shocked especially with no LTH selling. |
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It is amazing that the only coins that moved in this 2 month bear market are bought in the last 6 months, a.k.a. short term hodlers. Hence these guys alone are selling. Poor weak hands, they must be screaming like little girls while selling. I just wonder whether there is a single long term hodler to sell in panic now that we are 30K below the ATH 2 months ago? Probably none. And another thing. Is there a single daily trader, who can boast that he is in profit in the last year? Probably none. At least the stats show only liquidations and endless series of stop losses. It sucks to be a trader. But where are they getting the coins? In the move from May to Nov most of the buyers were LTH with little selling history. And there is buying by the LTH again at these levels. Either we have amazingly lackluster demand or STH have more coins then we think. |
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Below 39,500 Today? Seems to be a bit of volume on Stamp right now.
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Enough daily fake outs Same shit that was happening in the high 40s a few weeks ago. What surprises me about this dip is that apparently there was very little new retail that bought from May to Nov last year. That move was made by LTH, and vast majority of that was not sold, and infact they LTH are buying again. So who is doing the selling to keep dropping the price, has spot buying/selling been made completely redundant now and these moves are purely from the futures markets? |
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Can someone please explain to me what the actual fuck is going on with the price action today?
Good grief.
Bitcoin market is filled with a bunch of chicken shits. |
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The news today of Intel getting into the mining chip game didn't seem to have an immediate impact on the market, but this is the sort of news that give other companies the warm and fuzzy feeling inside. I could see other companies who have had "mining chips primarily sourced from China" on the CONS side of their presentation now have something to put on the PROS side. A 200+ billion dollar company getting into Bitcoin mining is a pretty good signal that it's going to be big business for some time to come. For years we've heard about how Bitcoin mining wasn't a big enough slice of pie for companies like Intel to care about. Today, that is no longer true. Absolutely amazing. This has potential to be a price catalyst.
When we have bearish sentiment good news never moves the market. Whereas bearish or bullish market sentiment and FUD always moves the market. Never understood this, but I guess it can just be put down to people being idiots. |
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As you guys are worried for the price, I am here to tell you that price is the least interesting metric to assess the healy of our mutual orange friend. For example, which measure the security of the Bitcoin network, is yet another time at ATH.  China mining Ban, Kashakistan riots, anything can stop the miner's weapon race. The impressive pace of network hashrate will take us to another gigantic difficulty adjustment next Friday, when the difficult will readjust. The adjustment will be a gargantuan one:
Latest Block: 719212 (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 109.1272% (1517 / 1390.12 expected, 126.88 ahead)
Previous Difficulty: 24272331996979.97
Current Difficulty: 24371874614345.62
Next Difficulty: between 26456677151315 and 26605209206773
Next Difficulty Change: between +8.5541% and +9.1636%
Previous Retarget: January 8, 2022 at 8:40 AM (+0.4101%)
Next Retarget (earliest): Friday at 4:34 AM (in 3d 4h 12m 38s)
Next Retarget (latest): Friday at 6:18 AM (in 3d 5h 55m 56s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 12d 19h 53m 51s and 12d 21h 37m 9s
https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimatorWhat does it mean exactly? Can you remember my thread on Alps Blockchain? A small Italian mining company using hydropower to mine bitcon: ALPS BLOCKCHAIN: mining in Italy from 100% renewable energyThere was a picture of a mining rack with more or less 150 miners on it: | |  | | | Fig. 5. The largest ALPS Blockchain plant is located in Valstagna (VI). |
I called this Rack "Valstagna Window", after the name of the Central where it is located. This means that, if I got my computations right, the next difficult adjustment has been caused by a gigantic increase in the HAshrate, caused by a rise in the computing power roughly equivalent to 900 of those racks. 900.In two weeks And in the future, probably, every two weeks. Up only Quality posting from filippone as usual Yep, and while the network is in better shape than ever, we also have taproot on the protocol side. Certainly don't need to worry about the technicals of Bitcoin itself. Price, yeah not great. My thoughts are moving to the "we are in a large sideways channel", and have been since the move from 64k to 30k. I think it is therefore very possible that we move back down to near the 30k level, but there will be a lot of stacking on the way by long-term holders and it will only possible with a collapse of the traditional markets. All very possible. |
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