its really over...   Yep, we poor again. |
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^ trying to pooh-pooh Mr. Market? We should admit that going down 8% after halving (and 19.5% since the ATH a month or so before) is not what most of us expected. Not a biggie, yet, of course, but it is enticing to think about why this is happening. I don't buy into P. Brandt 25% probability that bitcoin has already exhausted it's bull phase as it would be quite pathetic of a bull, but it seems that some macro factors are playing into this: maybe persistent inflation and hence no easing or maybe stagflation (albeit it is ridiculous to expect stagflation when we just started the AI era). I am reading that % of people not paying their bills is increasing in parallel with the credit card debt (1.2 tril in US). maybe the large %% of the population is simply broke (even with almost full employment)  Who knows, maybe we are on a verge of a recession and bitcoin is able to "sniff it out" earlier than other, often manipulated market indicators? Macro factors are the most obvious reason I reckon. From what I read liquidity has tightened, bank failures (albeit small) are starting to pop up, and the recent small increase in inflation is probably due more to the oil price than any actual demand. Increasing price in oil may be short term inflationary but long term it is deflationary and we may be feeling that now with some of the spending measures not looking too good. Powell's next statement should be an interesting on, I expect it to be dovish. |
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Actually I have never seen BTC immediately pump on good news …. Always taking its time
It does sometimes, I specifically remember it happening with the news of Tesla buying some coin, but most times it does not. didnt those 2 fake etf approval tweets, one from some crap online "news" site and one from a compromised government twitter account, also result in instant pumps (and of course immediate dumps when corrected)? and then the real etf approval comes and it drops. yup just btc performing as usual. Yeah, think I remember that. |
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Hong Kong ETFs proved to be irrelevant, as widely expected. There were some pretentious problaim by issuers about front loading of orders and volumes, but they proved to be inaccurate, to say the least. Just remember that mainland China investors were not allowed to buy those. Also ETH ETF, that were the true novelty of this launch left market unimpressed. I think what it also shows is that global liquidity just isn't flowing right now. We've probably been lucky to hold onto the price we have. Liquidity will increase again, probably this year, in the meantime though we just have to wait it out. |
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Actually I have never seen BTC immediately pump on good news …. Always taking its time
It does sometimes, I specifically remember it happening with the news of Tesla buying some coin, but most times it does not. |
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So when we go up?  Doesn’t look like the Hong Kong ETFs are going to have a massive impact. At least not immediately. I figured we would at least see Ethereum pop a little as it has a smaller market cap and has no American ETF, but I think the fact that it didn’t shows that there may not be much in the way of inflows coming from Hong Kong. There was a selloff after the US ETFs went online too, maybe this is a similar thing? Though your explanation seems likely. |
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I see the runes guys have finally started to run out of cash to congest the network with. The solution to high fees is high fees.
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Another day of zero inflow to Blackrock and GBTC dumping heavily, this time together with several other ETFs..  I wonder how many of those who invested in BTC through ETFs did so because they were convinced that an instant bull run would follow after the halving? Judging by everything, it seems that the halving was a cold shower for them. Maybe funds should make a survey among investors and ask them what actually happens with the halving - what percentage would answer that the total supply of BTC was reduced by half I keep hearing that a lot of selling is due to US tax deadline, perhaps that has something to do with it do. Most likely the ETF buyers are just dumb shits though. If they were smart they'd self custody. |
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I see the fees have gone down  unfortunately so has the BTC price  |
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One of the reasons I got so pissed off at that Civil War movie is that they painted "journalists" in such an objective and awesome light. On average they are loud mouthed imbeciles these days it seems to me. I only glance at articles and instantly spot mistakes, especially with money mistakes. Just look at the sheer stupidity in "news" articles these days. Apparently the dollar has lost 99.9% of its value overnight?  US approves $95bn aid package for Ukraine and Israelhttps://uk.yahoo.com/news/senate-passes-ukraine-aid-deal-040200462.htmlUS officials said about $1bn (£802,000) worth of the aid could be on its way shortly, with the bulk following in the coming weeks.
A billion, a million, 802,000. What's the difference eh? MSM Journalists are probably majority intelligence agency operatives these days. The CIA, NSA, etc have been infiltrating them for decades now. And the rest as you say are stupid. Independent journalists on the other hand can be very much the opposite. |
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and if you are in USA zelle is fine up to $1000 usd.
frankly sending btc on the main chain for any thing under 1000 is dumb..
LN may get better eventually,but btc is much more a buy and hodl store of wealth than anyother thing.
I use zelle for nocoiner people
I use doge and ltc for small sends as it is easier than LN
I use main chain for large purchases of mining gear.
Spend $, hoard BTC. It's the best way. |
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fees will stay high from now on.
That's been said many times over the years and has not come true yet. We will see. have you looked at the mempool from Jan 2023 to april 2024 look at it again. do you realize that a 1 sat fee minimum would be 16 cents if btc is 💯 K btc main chain is dead for small coin moves. so LN or ltc/doge for small value moves is what will take over. it is simply a matter of math. Despite the mempool, and prior to this latest increase coming into the halving, fees were around 10 sats. I don't consider that to be expensive. Buying a coffee was always unrealistic, LN is fine for that. |
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fees will stay high from now on.
That's been said many times over the years and has not come true yet. We will see. |
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This is my first post at WO, after my first halving, Thank God for life  Now for the big question When is the dip coming My colleague and I were really excited that we're going to buy the dip but now what we see sadden us while the sudden rise in fee is discouraging though it's getting better probably before the end of the day it will be normal Will be multiple days before the fee is back to normal I think |
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I thought the fees would have come down a bit more by now but let's see how economical it is for these spammers to keep it up. Everytime this has happened before fees have come back down to reasonable levels, I don't think it will be different this time.
What I do know though is that I will not be transacting on the network while this keeps up.
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...
My only complaint re this interesting and eventful evening are the ridiculous fees I've been seeing since Block 840000. Most of them have median fees over 1000 sats/vbyte (data from mempool.space), some well over 2000! Fees are over 1000 for the next three blocks. Median for next one as of now: 1800 ($118.00 for a simple tx).
Looks like it's going to take a while before I can buy some more.
The miners are making some massive gains right now that's for sure. |
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40BTC in fees for 840000; amazing
Yeah that fee spike is nuts! And there is still a large backlog with what looks like a bunch of idiots still putting high fee transactions through, though dropping fast. 840001 - 7.611 BTC 840002 - 10.115 BTC 840003 - 19.193 BTC 840004 - 27.133 BTC So much for the halving, lol. These are the ones failed to squeeze into the block 840000 I suppose. That's what I figure, but there were still some being made after 840000. There are a lot of stupid people out there though. |
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40BTC in fees for 840000; amazing
Yeah that fee spike is nuts! And there is still a large backlog with what looks like a bunch of idiots still putting high fee transactions through, though dropping fast. 840001 - 7.611 BTC 840002 - 10.115 BTC 840003 - 19.193 BTC 840004 - 27.133 BTC So much for the halving, lol. |
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I came across this chart showing the amount of USDT alongside BTC’s price. I’m sure it can’t be this correlated going back much further historically, but it seems to point to a higher BTC price in the immediate future. I know Tether’s USDT printing is a hot button issue to some. My opinion is that it just shows more usd being deposited on exchanges.  Have you got some charts of it over the previous bull/bear cycle? Would be interesting to see how it went there. |
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