How can you make this promise when Rubies stake at 5% per year?

You seem to be promising me 5% interest on my Rubies, paid in BTC, forever.

Are you really saying that you guarantee to always buy Rubies for 0.00001000 BTC each?

I don't think I left any undeserved feedback did I?

My feedback says:


Three questions:

Are OP's chat logs accurate?

Did you promise to refund fees plus losses in the event of a net loss?

Did you do as you promised?

Maybe he's referring to this, and forgot that he didn't include a projected timeline:

Yes, I would recommend creating a few more HD accounts and see if the new ones have transaction histories you recognize. The worst that will happen is that they have no transactions and you can delete them again.

You could replace the 0-9 with 1-9 because we don't allow 0's in CLAM addresses.

I left him some feedback on his profile. It links to this thread, so maybe that will help him find it.

Interesting reading. Looks to me like you were clearly scammed. He said he would refund the difference if you made a loss. So he doesn't just owe you the 0.777 that you paid but also the losses you made.

Does the other party have anything to say about this accusation? Refusing to refund because you made a trade that you weren't explicitly told to, while at the same time complaining that you didn't make the CLAM sell when you weren't explicitly told to is just priceless:

There is a limit on how much any single bet can profit. That limit is set to 0.5% of the total (onsite + offsite) bankroll.

Right now you cannot profit by more than 134.6k CLAMs per bet. The limit updates in real time.

In practice nobody has ever got close to that limit. The biggest win so far was a little under 40k CLAMs.

I guess you've never taken a betcoin.tm bonus!

But assuming that's the case, that you get to play your bonus without touching your deposit, and the bonus is cancelled as soon as you bust the bonus amount, then the EV of the bonus would depend upon the odds, house edge, and stake sizing. You would want to pick a game and a play style which maximizes the variance (since your EV is the average of just the positive results)

--

Suppose we put the 1 BTC on a 0.9% chance of 100x payout, and if we win, we put 9 BTC on another 0.9% chance of 100x payout. Those are both 10% house edge bets, and result in us wagering 10 BTC if we win the first bet.

We have a 0.991 chance of busting the bonus: bonus value = 0 BTC
We have a 0.009 chance of winning the first bet (leaving us with 100 BTC), and then:
    We have a 0.991 chance of losing the 2nd bet: bonus value = 100 - 9 = 91 BTC
    We have a 0.009 chance of winning the 2nd bet: bonus value = 91 + 900 = 991 BTC

So the expected value of the bonus is 0.009 * (0.991 * 91 + 0.009 * 991) = 0.8919 BTC

--

To try to pick a 'bad' strategy, what if we bet 1 BTC with a 90% chance of a 1x payout ten times in a row... Those are also 10% house edge bets.

We have a 0.9 ** 10 = 0.3486784401 probability of winning all ten bets, and ending up with our original 1 BTC. That's an EV of 0.3486 BTC.

--

Can we do worse than 0.3486 BTC somehow while only risking 10 BTC? Or better than 0.9 BTC?

Suppose we put the 1 BTC on a 0.09% chance of 1000x payout, and if we win, we put 9 BTC on another 0.09% chance of 1000x payout. Those are both 10% house edge bets, and result in us wagering 10 BTC if we win the first bet.

We have a 0.9991 chance of busting the bonus: bonus value = 0 BTC
We have a 0.0009 chance of winning the first bet (leaving us with 1000 BTC), and then:
    We have a 0.9991 chance of losing the 2nd bet: bonus value = 1000 - 9 = 991 BTC
    We have a 0.0009 chance of winning the 2nd bet: bonus value = 991 + 9000 = 9991 BTC

So the expected value of the bonus is 0.0009 * (0.9991 * 991 + 0.0009 * 9991) = 0.89919 BTC

--

This looks like it approaches an EV of 0.9 BTC as the payout multiplier increases.

If I give you 1 BTC and tell you that you have to wager 10 BTC at a 10% house edge, the EV of that bonus is exactly 0, as you calculate above.

To say more than that we will need to know the terms of the bonus.

For example, with some bonuses I am allowed to "cancel" it at any time. But does cancelling a bonus remove the full 1 BTC from my balance, or just the amount I didn't already lose of the bonus?

I'm not sure what you mean, but the Just-Dice profit didn't go negative other than in the first 4 months of operation. It launched in June 2013, and by October 2013 it had left the negative profit zone and never went back.

There was no 8+ month period over which any investor would have made a loss if they had stayed invested for that period.

If your point is that variance is a bitch then I agree. But I think you have the specifics wrong re. Just-Dice.

My understanding is that OP will be engraving both the address and the passphrase protected BIP38 private key.

This is relatively safe, since BIP38 encryption is pretty safe. OP would need to brute force the BIP38 passphrase to steal coins.

This reddit post gives a BIP38 private key for an address with 1 BTC in it. The passphrase is just 6 letters (a-z and A-Z) yet nobody has yet cracked it, after more than a year.

I was trying to explain to OP that the 2^31 limit on the client seed was probably a result of the maximum value that could be stored in an integer in the language you were coding in rather than a deliberate attempt to cheat your players.

Something as simple as:


which outputs:


demonstrates the issue with ints in C for example.

You remember C? It was invented around the time I was wearing diapers but you were already wearing big-boy pull-up pants.

Me neither. It looks very suspicious to me.

First there was the "bug" which caused people to lose far more often than they should. I can't imagine what kind of error could accidentally cause the site to pick losing numbers over and over however the player bets. And the site's explanation made no sense at all.

And now they're saying they have no maximum amount you can win? That's clearly crazy. What if I play and win more than the site owns? I suspect I would not "become a very happy". I suspect the site would refuse to pay my winnings. Every casino on earth has a maximum bet. Nobody is infinitely rich.

Could we get a proper explanation of (1) why exactly people were losing so often, like regularly losing 8 out of 10 99% chance bets? and (2) why you refuse to set a maximum bet or profit amount?

Thanks.

I figure that's the main reason. They want to keep customer coins mostly offline, which means they can't stake them.

Just-Dice keeps all the coins it holds online to stake them. Most are far removed from the site itself, but they are still "online".

Create a few more.

JD holds around 66% of all the CLAMs (that have been staked or dug up), but stakes a considerably higher percentage of the coins staked each day.

The reason for the difference is that the 2nd biggest holder is likely poloniex, and they don't stake their coins at all.

Why do you think it's an HD wallet? The first output was sent to an address with a private key of 0x01. That would never be generated by an HD wallet.

Thanks.

I don't know if it's a result of your tweet, but after 6 days of ignoring me there was a new comment on my ticket just a few minutes ago:


I'm guessing that he didn't mean to ask me to apologise for the inconvenience and that that was a typo.

It is not clear to me what he means about "recovering" the coins. The coins aren't missing - they were sent to my deposit address and are being used to fund withdrawals for other users. All that needs to be done is my account needs to be credited for the missing 9800 CLAMs.

I'll keep you posted.

Edit: I now see the missing coins in my poloniex balance. I had asked for them to be returned to my CLAM address, but this is better than nothing.

Edit2: One take-away from this is to make sure you never split your deposits to poloniex into multiple outputs. Their system only appears to credit the last output in the transaction and ignores all the rest.

Edit3: They made the withdrawal.

I've never had a problem with them before, but this is just weird. They won't respond to my ticket, haven't replied to my post here, and still haven't credited or refunded me for my deposit. Meanwhile they continue to spend the coins I deposited.

I hope there's a sensible explanation for why they're withholding my funds, and wish they would share it with me.