As Bitcoin Plunges 25% On Government Scrutiny, The First BTC "Fair Value" Reco Has A Stunning Price Target
Let’s use a broad guesstimate. One Bitcoin should theoretically be worth 700 ounces of gold or pretty close to $1,000,000, if we adjust existing supply of both to equal eachother. One BTC is currently worth 0.14 ounces of gold. That gives BTC an upside of 5000 times to equal the current price of gold, supply adjusted. Clearly, I and everyone else believes that Gold may well be much higher than here in the next 5 to 10 years, thus versus the US Dollar the upside for BTC could be multiples of that. Now, before you shake your head, simply go back to the chart of Gold versus the US Dollar and just recognise that it has risen 8750% since the 1920s. And just remember that Microsoft rose 61,000% from its IPO to it’s peak. Considering what we know about the world, I personally believe that Bitcoin may well explode in value as more and more people begin to use it. If you stuck $5,000 into Bitcoins and each Bitcoin did go up to a gold equivalent of let’s say, only 100 ounces of gold (not the potential fair value of 700), then at current prices your Bitcoin stash would be worth $3.3m. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-10/bitcoin-plunges-25-government-scrutiny-first-btc-fair-value-reco-has-stunning-price- For 700 ounces of gold a BTC I'll sell a considerable portion of my Bitcoins. I suspect that if BTC ever reached that valuation its dominance as an ideal form of money, and its acceptance across just about every industry from which you might want things would be so broad that you wouldn't want to sell any portion of your bitcoin for any other currency. Instead, you'd just spend them for the things you want. |
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I really have a hard time understanding why there's still so much money on MtGox.
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As much as I would like to play around with the market again (and I really, really want to), I'm so distrustful of any 3rd party with any significant sum of bitcoin that I'm just content to hold it, spend it, or sell person to person for cash. I don't know how people can tolerate the risk of having so much on any of the exchanges.
Why does it have to be on the "exchanges"? Why can't it sit in your wallet? Because then it's not on an exchange and can't be liquidated quickly and be as responsive to market moves. |
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Had ~150 BTC sitting in bitcoinica.
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I was thinking of the possibility of a new crash to come this weekend. Seems to me that the recent growth is too big to be sustained, it's really exponential!
History teachs us... the crash will be very very hard and quick.   We hardly need to look that far back to understand that. Many of us here have lived through bitcoin "crashes" that were harsh(er) and quick(er). |
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The price has only doubled once...all other crashes came after at least 4 doubling.
Twice? Capitulation after the last crash was ~$70. Doubled would be $140. Doubled again would be $280. Doubled again would be $560. Doubled again would be $1,060. If we hit $500 in a straight shot without a breather I would sell off some (always some, never all) and not lose sleep. If it hit $1,000 I would dump a lot more and be confident that I get another chance. As much as I would like to play around with the market again (and I really, really want to), I'm so distrustful of any 3rd party with any significant sum of bitcoin that I'm just content to hold it, spend it, or sell person to person for cash. I don't know how people can tolerate the risk of having so much on any of the exchanges. |
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I don't agree with every statement but overall pretty balanced coverage. I am amazed at how far the media has come with Bitcoin. I mean first it was nothing ... absolutely nothing. Then it was illogical rants, dubious claims, mocking, etc. Then it was nothing but hype (fueling bubbles). We are just starting to get into real coverage now. I like that he in plain English discounts the fallacy of "everyone will hoard so it will fail because it becomes to valuable" nonsense As for the idea that the rising value of bitcoins will cause people to hoard Bitcoins rather than spending them, that's based on flawed reasoning. If everyone holding bitcoins expect their value to rise dramatically in the future, then the price will rise now, until some Bitcoin holders are willing to part with their Bitcoins. Here's my own personal anecdote. I actually have been more prone to spend during rally periods than downswings or periods of stability. |
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Who is John Galt ?
Satoshi Nakamoto. Didn't you read the thread? |
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I looked into Second Market and decided not to go with them because their fees are too high. They charge 1.5% to liquidate and additionally charge 2% per annum. For me it was much easier to use Bitstamp and then use an Armory offline wallet with paper backups.
Good for you. One of the great advantages of bitcoin is that with reasonably accessible security, you can manage your own wealth. Just make sure you distribute your backups so they're not all in one place  |
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Gotta get back to work. Have fun everyone.
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Hi guys. I've been trying to avoid the spec forum, but I decided to break down and jump back in to say "hi". I'm pretty optimistic about bitcoin, but this move is surprising.
THE Bear is BACK! I don't know what to do anymore... ABANDON SHIP! Historically, my ridiculous bearishness has cost me. Just ask adam. |
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Hi guys. I've been trying to avoid the spec forum, but I decided to break down and jump back in to say "hi". I'm pretty optimistic about bitcoin, but this move is surprising.
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I am going to purchase $100,000+ of BTC and would like to know what you think is the best way accomplish this matter. I have bought 100+ coins in the past so I am familiar with wiring to exchanges and I have also looked into Second Market, but their fees are higher than going through an exchange.
Additionally, what is the best way to long-term store this amount of coins? Would it be a bad idea to keep the coins on an exchange(s) and wait a few months for a Trezor? Should I just create paper wallets and dog tags and etch in the private key?
Buy a computer, keep it disconnected from any and all networks, wipe the hard disk and install a fresh OS, install Armory in offline mode, and send any bitcoins you buy to the addresses you generate on your offline computer. You'll want to encrypt your Armory wallets on the offline computer and make paper backups. If you want more help with this, PM me and I'll walk you through it. Offline Armory is by far the easiest and most robust way to secure bitcoins. Yes ohhhhh PROUDHON IS BACK... lol so is proudhon a BTC BELIEVER NOW? |
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Should bitcoin become widely accepted, it is un-likely that it will remain free of government intervention, if only because the governance of the bitcoin code and network is opaque and vulnerable. That said, it represents a remarkable conceptual and technical achievement, which may well be used by existing financial institutions (which could issue their own bitcoins) or even by governments themselves.
http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/chicago_fed_letter/2013/cfldecember2013_317.pdfHe's not making all that much sense. The bitcoin code, as an open source project, is the opposite of opaque. And for that reason it's rather more unlikely that governments could intervene in the code-base, without the network and anyone looking at it noticing. The government obviously can easily intervene where bitcoin interfaces with the traditional financial system. Maybe that's what he's talking about, but it sounds like he thinks the former. Am I missing something here? |
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For some reason I suspect the steady 1btc per 8 seconds buying bot might be connected to this. It might be how the trust maintains parity as investment comes in.
I can tell you with some confidence that the traders for Secondmarket's Bitcoin Investment Trust don't buy on the exchanges. That isn't to say they don't impact the price on the exchanges. I am very interested to know what other mechanisms exist to purchase bitcoins, the only ones I know of are: - Exchanges - Coinbase - BTC ATMs - In-person cash sales In person cash sales & ATMs are not going to provide the $millions in volume needed and coinbase has daily limits and uses exchanges in the back end anyway. So... Where else can BIT purchase? There are businesses, miners, and other individuals who hold relatively large sums of bitcoins and Secondmarket seeks them out and builds relationships with them. |
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Is this "new" Silk Road going to bring tougher regulations, or even an out right ban (which I doubt is even possible, but they may try) on Bitcoin in the USA?
The statement by the Chairman is surprisingly positive, in my view. I think it shows an appreciation for the technology they're up against here. |
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For some reason I suspect the steady 1btc per 8 seconds buying bot might be connected to this. It might be how the trust maintains parity as investment comes in.
I can tell you with some confidence that the traders for Secondmarket's Bitcoin Investment Trust don't buy on the exchanges. That isn't to say they don't impact the price on the exchanges. |
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Intrinsic value, subjective value, objective value...here's my question to Joe: If somebody wants to buy bitcoins, and I have some I want to sell, how much should I sell them for?
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Anyone know if anyone ever got any bitcoins/USD from the bitcoinica fiasco? I had 150BTC in bitcoinica, but unfortunately missed the deadline earlier this year to submit my claim. Ooops. Just curious if any bitcoin/usd ever materialized for anyone, or if they remain "locked up" in Gox.
No, we are still working on it. Gox is not playing nice, holding to coins hostage and using the coins for leverage. I've already accepted that I won't ever get any of those coins back, and at this point I consider Gox at least as responsible for that as everyone who was involved in bitcoinica. Mt. Gox (Mark) has kept the money and BTC. They had the ability to pass it on but refused.  Are there any possible legitimate reasons for him to behave this way? |
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