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141  Economy / Economics / Re: What’s the nature of currency? on: August 22, 2021, 04:43:43 AM
Bitcoin has already achieved consensus. It's users are in agreement that the POW-based technology has its use case and can be utilized to transfer value from point A to point B. As the time goes by, this agreement between people will either increase or decrease based on whether or not a new and better payment system will be created in the future. What the government thinks about the consensus that was reached between Bitcoin enthusiasts doesn't really matter. If people come to an agreement that Britney Spears posters can be used in exchange for goods and services, a government agency doesn't have a say in that matter.     

Do you think that since Bitcoin can be issued without a central bank, cryptocurrency can bypass the state, replace the current legal currency, and achieve denationalization.
I don't think Bitcoin will ever become the ultimate replacement asset for fiat currencies. At least not one that will be private and help people to not pay taxes. But I do believe that the two worlds can coexist and affect each other in a way to iron out their flaws and shortcomings.

Bitcoin doesn't exactly have an efficient way to measure "consensus" and further, there's a major difference between what bitcoin users might think versus a consensus by miners, the vote of which is significantly concentrated the hands of very few relative to the number of bitcoin users as a whole.  Plus, the frequent splits off the main bitcoin chain are instances where there have been major disagreements concerning the "consensus" about the proper protocols bitcoin should use.  All this is a long way of saying that there's no credible "consensus" about bitcoin.  There's a status quo which, for reasons that have nothing to do with consensus, is very difficult to change.
142  Economy / Economics / Re: After 1 year of Covid 19 Virus on: August 22, 2021, 04:29:18 AM
A lot of citizens in my country got vaccinated also. And a lot are getting back to "work from work/office/etc". It might look that we have won. He have vaccine, number of cases decreased, life is getting back to normal. But this week news sites started to post covid case statistics again and the numbers started to increase.

This looks identically to previous year. A lot of cases in autumn, winter and spring, and a huge reduction in summer. I have a prediction that in October-November everything will start again. After one year of covid nothing has changed...

The infection patterns may be tracing the same patterns as before, but one thing that is different is that there are more variations of the virus circulating through the population and we know that Delta is far more contagious than previous versions.  Luckily, the Delta variant doesn't seem to be more lethal, but who knows how much more deadly the virus can become with continued mutations.
143  Economy / Economics / Re: Crypto vs Fiat on: August 22, 2021, 04:22:01 AM
I once compared in two months, crypto and saving in the bank, what I did was deliberately to prove, it turns out that it's 100% true that crypto can beat saving in a bank in terms of the benefits provided by the bank and the results of buying crypto.
Indeed. Investing in crypto is much better because we can double our capital (depends on the coins that we invest in) for a short period. Its a fact that we cant deny though it has risk due to many scams but if you're a kind of investor who always conduct a research before investing then huge gains are not impossible. While storing our money in banks are the old way of saving, but you cant gain huge from it even it take years. Thus its obvious which is more beneficial.

If you're just looking for a fast double, gambling is what you're doing.  Nothing returns such high gains without a corresponding high risk of loss.  Expecting any asset to double in short order shows just how warped your expectations are. 
144  Economy / Economics / Re: What is the nature of the value of Bitcoin? on: August 22, 2021, 04:10:42 AM
Bitcoin mining follows the law of conservation of energy, converting the wind, water, and solar energy into electricity, and then into hashing power by mining machine and finally Bitcoin will be dug out. That is a process of storing the energy of nature in the form of Bitcoin. The stored Bitcoin is value. Bitcoin built a value network where value is exchanged and transferred in the form of Bitcoin.

The law of conservation of energy has no applicability to bitcoin.  Under this extremely confused analogy, it could only be applicable if energy could be converted into bitcoin and then converted back into energy, which is not the case.  Bitcoin only consumes energy, and what energy is consumed creating bitcoin is never conserved or reclaimable.  In fact, it only requires ever more energy to continue transferring bitcoin through the blockchain once it is created.  This is the antithesis of what you're trying to convey.  Bitcoin is an energy sink and in its current form will never not be.
145  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin and Triffin Dilemma on: August 22, 2021, 03:48:55 AM
The IMF already uses some form of supranational currency to make up for the limitations of sovereign currencies.  Keynes proposed a supranational currency called Bancor, and while it was never implemented, SDRs are a close analog and currently in use by the IMF.  It's therefore extremely unlikely that we would see radical change like Bitcoin becoming the standard supranational currency when we have in practice something that already mimics the effects of doing so, and radical change like the kind you talk about will lose out to the inertia of "good enough" every time.
146  Economy / Economics / Re: Cryptocurrency is the biggest investment opportunity in the future on: August 22, 2021, 01:45:49 AM
I don't think so, the biggest opportunity for a cryptocurrency as an investment wad back when the prices were still good enough that you can buy around 5 dollars a pop not this one although it's still a good opportunity, it's not the same as the last time because you have to spend more and get less in the process although if you believe in the potential, you will know for sure that your investment in that particular cryptocurrency is going to go up in long-term.

Exactly, you will never see the types of gains that have already been seen.  The law of large numbers takes over and it's just impossible to keep doubling in value at the same rate at this point. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised to see bitcoin's returns just mirror the stock market at large.

Many been hype for seeing the price way back before but this will never happen again although we have a chance when bitcoin price dump like when market season came but we cannot experience the same earnings where old dudes who hold became millionaire for holding bitcoin for so many years, maybe the least we can do for now is to ride with certain % gains and maybe you are right that maybe in future we will see the same profit we can get on stock in future when bitcoin price reach at 6 digits.

We're at about $50,000 right now.  Bitcoin was perhaps the “best” investment opportunity when it was below $1,000, but it’s no longer likely to put up the super massive growth numbers anymore. At this price, it is just as likely that the a basket of technology stocks outperforms bitcoin from this point out. Bitcoin is likely going to largely correlate with the overall stock market from here.
147  Economy / Economics / Re: Coinbase IPO was the largest IPO in 2021. 86 billion USD valuation on: August 22, 2021, 01:22:37 AM
I was really impressed with the size of this IPO and I didn't expect a so much successful one by coinbase.
I'm not sure if I'd be impressed with that or not--do you think Coinbase is actually worth $86 billion?  I just took a look at their P/E, and it's 30.64.  That's probably low for a tech stock, but for a financial institution (which is basically what Coinbase is), it's high.  They've either got to keep growing their profits or their stock price is going to sink until that P/E is down to around 10-15, in my opinion.

On the other hand, they do have real earnings, which is more than can probably be said for a lot of companies on that infogram.  I don't recognize most of the names on it, but they sound like they're mostly tech companies and I'd bet that most of them don't even have any earnings yet.

I'd only invest in Coinbase if they started to pay a dividend, which most financial stocks do.  At least with that, there's some reason to hold the stock if it doesn't produce any capital gains.

Valuing coinbase as a financial institution is wrong. They're 100% a tech stock.  The same way you wouldn't value Square or PayPal as a financial institution because they also are tech stocks.  The current marketcap is 67 billion.  Personally, I'm not interested in that because a lot of future growth is already baked in and they're offering a commodity product (access to crypto) and have to defensive moat to protect the business.  Anyone can come in and beat them on price.  The risk-reward at this valuation isn't there for me.
148  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin as a speculative asset or as currency on: August 22, 2021, 01:15:02 AM

Is Bitcoin still yet a speculative asset or a store of value? I think people will have different opinions about this.
Also bitcoin high transaction fee, is it not related to this? Because the lower the fee the more Bitcoin will fit into the currency category.

The interview was quite interesting: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VUvp9X8UTws&feature=youtu.be
https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-07-27/-Central-bank-digital-currencies-were-concocted-in-hell-by-Satan-himself-Rich-Checkan.html


You would hope that bitcoin's speculative value is based on bitcoin's future ability to be used as digital currency (as it was created to be used ;-)).
*though there are plenty of speculative "investors" who don't have a basic understanding of what they are investing in (yes tulips, .com and real estate)

You can hope that all you want, but it's demonstrably not the case. Almost nobody cares about using it as a currency. People buy it to speculate and try to get rich, and because they have major FOMO when they see others buying it. If it weren't for social media, Bitcoin would still be worthless. And a red flag about its true intrinsic value is that nobody knows what it's worth themselves, they depend on what others think it's worth (or worse yet, the perception of what others think it's worth) to inform their opinion of what they think it's worth.
149  Economy / Economics / Re: "Crypto is no longer in the early adoption stage" on: August 22, 2021, 01:10:50 AM
It has been a very long time since cryptocurrencies have left the early adoption stage. For example, Bitcoin adoption is increasing at a high rate nowadays. Now, the cryptocurrency market is well-known among people. It's not like the first times of this market anymore. Maybe we are still not at a very high level for cryptocurrencies but we are getting close there.

Adoption as a currency is virtually non-existent.  If you mean adoption as a speculative asset, perhaps this is closer to entering the mainstream, but this was never part of the original thesis. It's only when you move the goalposts that you come anywhere close to saying bitcoin is entering the mainstream.  Use as an actual currency still remains rare compared to people just buying and hoping to make money holding it.
150  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Bitcoin losing its purpose? on: August 22, 2021, 01:05:59 AM
Great article on Bitcoin.com that people should read. Crypto has the potential to usurp the banks, allow private, digital transactions, serve as a universal currency, escape from rampant fiat inflation, etc. People need to wake up, be more active in politics and be stronger advocates against KYC.

Fighting KYC is exactly the type of thing that's going to lead to harsh crackdowns by governments. Either you want bitcoin to be a widely accepted part of the economy or you want limited utility untraceable dark money.  You can't have both. Bitcoin can occupy a not insignificant part of the financial system, but only when it fits into the current framework and the current laws. Bitcoin will not be the glorious revolution you envisioned.
151  Economy / Economics / Re: Miami will launch its own cryptocurrency and reward users with bitcoin on: August 22, 2021, 01:01:33 AM
This is great news for me as well as BTC, it will be the driving force behind the increasing growth of BTC, as far as I know BTC has been accepted by many places and this will be a cryptocurrency popular in the future, any of us Crypto Forums are looking forward to news like this and all of us here are crypto enthusiasts. This is a very happy and joyful day for me.

Like 99% of altcoins, this is not going to move the needle and not going to amount to anything more than a publicity event. Miami coin isn't going to be popular and isn't going to increase adoption meaningfully.  The one thing you can say about it is at least Miami is trying something far more advanced than any other place in the US, but don't expect it to have a material effect on anything bitcoin related.
152  Economy / Economics / Re: Bullish: 'Vast Majority' of Institutions Will Own Crypto by 2026: Fidelity on: August 20, 2021, 07:34:22 PM
If anyone still has doubts about whether it is worth buying and waiting at least until the next cycle, take a look at what a new survey from Fidelity Digital Assets says.

According to the survey, 70% of institutional investors intend to buy or invest in digital assets in the near future, with over 90% of them planning to do so by 2026.

We have seen entrepreneurs who were skeptical of Bitcoin years ago change their minds in the last year. If what the survey says comes true, and it looks like it will, it won't even be necessary to own a whole Bitcoin to achieve a certain degree of wealth.

Surely the $30K we have seen recently will never be seen again.
Even without being told I have already believed that the thirty thousand dollars we saw this year is likely to be the least that the market would ever go again and it’s going to continue from their to be going up and won’t go down below that range. And the next thing I do know is that institutional investors are not going to stop coming, there are going to be so many of them coming all the time, we haven’t seen the end of the market growth, there is still a lot more to come and I can’t wait for that to happen. That’s why we have now to do whatever we want to do and wait for that time to come.

Just as everyone who has ever predicted a top has been wrong, likely is everyone wrong who ever predicts the "last" time we see a certain low.  The history of Bitcoin has always been one of extreme volatility, where peaks and valleys are revisisted with regularity.  Last time it was at $60k there were also people saying it'll never go below $40k again, and they were wrong, just like you're likely to be wrong.  Forever is a long time.  I would bet that we see $30k again if the time horizon is "forever."
153  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin as a speculative asset or as currency on: August 20, 2021, 07:26:03 PM
If people use it as a currency rather than trading it, it becomes a currency.

Since people trade it more than using it as a currency, it is more like a speculative asset lately.

Most people I know don't want to know about bitcoin's use cases. They just want to get rich.

That's certainly true, mate. Most people are into crypto to make a lot of money, so Bitcoin's main use is more as a speculative asset than anything else. If people used Bitcoin as a unit of account instead of Fiat, things would've been a lot different than what they are right now. Imagine paying directly in Bitcoin without the need to know how much the coin is worth in terms of Fiat. It would enable a truly-decentralized crypto economy just like Satoshi envisioned. Always remember that 1 Bitcoin equals 1 Bitcoin no matter what. If people truly knew the meaning of crypto/Blockchain tech, they wouldn't been relying on Bitcoin as means for profit. Only Fiat's disappearance will make people use Bitcoin as a currency than all the other way around. But we all know this is very unlikely to happen anytime soon. Just my thoughts Grin

"Always remember 1 Bitcoin equals 1 Bitcoin no matter what."  This is an empty platitude that doesn't mean anything.  1 dollar equals 1 dollar no matter what too.  It doesn't have any practical value knowing this.  You need to know the value of money in relation to things you want or need to buy.  Does 1 bitcoin buy a bag of groceries or a car?  Knowing it's worth "1 bitcoin" is meaningless.  Bitcoin is unusable as a currency because no one knows how much it's worth unless they convert it into USD first.
154  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The recent surge in Covid-19 is making vaccine makers to have a rethink on: August 20, 2021, 07:17:30 PM
Zinc and vitamin D are emerging as great supplements for COVID-19.

Quote
The Role of Zinc in Antiviral Immunity

This review summarizes current basic science and clinical evidence examining zinc as a direct antiviral, as well as a stimulant of antiviral immunity. An abundance of evidence has accumulated over the past 50 y to demonstrate the antiviral activity of zinc against a variety of viruses, and via numerous mechanisms. The therapeutic use of zinc for viral infections such as herpes simplex virus and the common cold has stemmed from these findings; however, there remains much to be learned regarding the antiviral mechanisms and clinical benefit of zinc supplementation as a preventative and therapeutic treatment for viral infections.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31305906/

....


Zinc itself appears to have anti viral characteristics. In addition to being a vital component to having a fully functional immune system. Studies claim many in the world have zinc deficiencies, leading to decreased immune system function.

There doesn't appear to be good information available on vaccines. Perhaps they will label our current era something other than an "information age" seeing as how starved we are for relevant information.

Minorities in the united states appear to be the least vaccinated demographic. A fact which the media strangely appears to ignore. I do not support vaccines and will never get them. There are many discrepansies and inconsistencies revolving around COVID-19 and vaccines which are not being acknowledged.

Zinc is not a COVID-19 supplement and nothing in the study you posted even mentions any applicability to COVID-19 whatsoever (in fact it was published before the pandemic began).  Nobody should take one abstract study that doesn't address the premise at all as any type of confirmation that zinc is a suitable treatment for COVID-19.  It's not.  Vaccine's have proven effective at limiting the spread and reducing the rate of serious illness, hospitalizations and death.  To maintain anything to the contrary ignores the reality and the science of it.  Due to people like OP who refuse vaccines, everyone in the world is in far worse shape.  This continued stupidity imperils the world.  Perhaps this is the type of virus that can never be defeated, just as influenza cannot be defeated, but we're certainly not in a better place because of the anti-vaxxers dragging the rest of us down, giving the virus continued runway to mutate into more dangerous variants.
155  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin as a speculative asset or as currency on: August 08, 2021, 05:44:21 AM
It's more of a speculative asset these days.  Nobody is using it for commerce, people are only interested in the gains from holding it.  And there is a great deal of FOMO driving the speculative frenzy.  Nobody wants to miss out on being a "crypto millionaire."
156  Economy / Economics / Re: Libertarians built a Bitcoin economy in a small town, feds shut it down on: August 08, 2021, 05:41:58 AM
....

I'm surprised this hasn't received more publicity.

There is an odd angle here where they praise bitcoin cash and criticize bitcoin for not adopting larger block sizes
...


I do not see this as a big event to be honest. There are many "libertarian" groups in the US and many of them are simply a poor excuse for a hillbilly group of half drug traffickers and half drunkards waving the confederate flag.

Those that are not, are actually trying to live a delusion, trying to live their lives as if there were on a free country - meaning they can ignore the laws - and declare some short of sovereignty and be left alone. The world does not work like that. If you want a libertarian state, you will need to either conquer one by war or by convincing a massive number of people. And that is only to create it, then you will need to defend it. Anything else is delusional.

On the bitcoin cash topic, I see that these people wanted to use bitcoin as currency, as it was intended in the beginning, and that spirit is better achieved with BCH

I never understood the adherence to smaller block sizes either.  It's like hardcoding a limit into the ability to enable mass adoption.  A currency that can't be used without lengthy transaction delays or significant fees is not a useful currency.  But the ship has long sailed on bitcoin as a functional currency.  Now it's all about price appreciation and FOMO.  No one uses it as a currency.
157  Economy / Economics / Re: Marathon Invests $150 Million In Bitcoin on: August 08, 2021, 05:18:32 AM
This was a penny stock before the price of bitcoin sent crypto mining companies through the roof. Do your homework on this, this isn't a company I'd invest in personally.
I believe it when you're telling me it was a penny stock--and they did do a few reverse splits if I'm interpreting the data correctly.  I always get confused if 1:4 is a one share-->four shares split, or if it means the opposite.  I assumed in the case of Marathon that they were reverse splits given that there was no justification for a traditional split, as the stock price was nowhere near high enough. 

I'm not really interested in the company and don't plan to research it further, but I do want to track its progress as I do with a few other blockchain-oriented companies or ones like MSTR that own tons of BTC.

A 1:4 split is a reverse split, so for every 4 shares you owned you will now own 1 share.  The point is to reduce the share count and increase the price.  If you had 4 shares worth 1 dollar each ($4 total), after a 1:4 reverse split you would have 1 share worth 4 dollars.  The market cap remains the same, so the price undergoes the same change as the share count.  Usually, reverse splits are a sign of distress in a company.  It's commonly done by companies whose price has fallen below the minimum threshold to be listed on an exchange, and a reverse split boosts the stock price in order to be able to remain listed on the exchange.  Those instances are clear red flags.
158  Economy / Economics / Re: Risk of Inflation in Economy. on: August 08, 2021, 05:09:47 AM
0,9% in June
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

There are supply chaines problems and a portion of the inflation seems transitory but it is very likely the prices will keep going up

0.9% per month is equivalent to >10% per year. And from the charts that is given in the above mentioned website, it looks as if the increase is primarily driven by the spike in crude oil prices. Energy prices have gone up by 24.5% during the last 12 months period, mostly due to decisions by the Biden regime to help the OPEC (suspension of the Keystone pipeline, banning of fracking on federal lands.etc). Food prices have increased only by 2.4% during the same period. And within the energy sector, energy commodities have gone up by +44.2%, while energy services have seen only a +6.3% rise.

The energy prices don't have anything to do with Biden policies.  Keystone wouldn't be producing for years still and same with fracking on federal lands.  None of this impacted the current supply, so none of this impacted the current prices.  The prices are reactive to actual supply changes from OPEC, not policy decisions that would have changed supply 3-5 years from now.
159  Economy / Economics / Re: On Cuba and economy on: August 08, 2021, 05:07:08 AM
Well, the US has had a lot of interventions in Venezuela, just not always militarily.  The US continues to put sanctions on the country and also was recognized an opposition politician as the rightful leader of the country after the last election.  Both of these are interventions aimed to regime change, just not a military intervention.  The US has had repeated interventions in Cuba of the same nature, the sanctions are aimed at forcing Cuba to open up the government and become more democratic.  In that case, it's obviously not about oil because there is none.

The Cuban American community is politically very important and most of them are descendant from the elite class who had to flee Cuba when Fidel Castro seized power from Fulgencio Batista. They support the US sanctions, because these people lost all of their property and business when Castro implemented nationalization in 1959. Barack Obama tried to remove some of the embargoes and that cost the Democrats the state of Florida in 2016 (and probably again in 2020). If Biden removes the sanctions, then the Dems can say good bye to Florida for the next 50 years.

Anything that is so overly simplified is bound to be inaccurate.  Boiling down Florida to a simple case of sanctions is pure folly.  There are 21 million people in Florida, and the vast majority of them don't give a damn about sanctions on Cuba, and I'd guess they don't know anything about it either.
160  Economy / Economics / Re: The volatility in the price of a bitcoin is falling over time on: August 08, 2021, 05:01:47 AM
Pools that are very large and very liquid generally are not as volatile because of just how much money is required to move the market cap substantially.  An example of this is small cap stocks are generally more volatile than large cap stocks.

I do think the market cap is reaching a size where crazy swings will be on the decline.  It'll be interesting to see what happens as more companies lock up millions of dollars of bitcoin at a time, and whether that increases or decreases volatility though.  Generally, the less of something available the more volatile it is, so locking up bitcoin in company treasuries could possibly increase volatility.
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