Okay, a couple of questions about thresholds and rebalancing from Kopen. I’ll use a real time example: MCO. First of all, we’ve got to distinguish between speculative and super speculative (which in the “real world” would be investment and speculative), and MCO is super speculative and was never meant to be anything more than a spec play. According to my bear market rules, no one superspec asset can account for more than 2.5% of the portfolio and must be traded in 1/6th size blocks, scalping 40, 50, 80 percent gains. MCO fell to 1.3% of portfolio size and I “doubled down” and brought it up to 4% (breaking my own rule, but I really liked the trade for more than an 80% gain at that point). My average buy was ~.00062. My first sell order was in for just under .001, and others were stair-stepped higher. Sold almost 2/3rds on the first run-up and banked around 2.5 BTC. That also brought its portfolio percentage down to 10% from a pre-sell 20%. Now, 20% was way out of line from what I should have done with a superspec, but I liked what I was seeing and I try to let profits run in spite of almost always selling early. Now it’s back up to 14% and this is a superspec position that is supposed to be a short term scalp! Time to bring it back in line! After all, it’s getting close to being a 20x off of lows. So that means selling another 60% of the remaining position to get things down to 5%, which will still be double what it should be! I’ll then hang on to that until I get a sell signal, which I still don’t have, but since I’m a shitty trader, I’ll stay safe, rebalance reasonably, and settle for the roughly 4 BTC I’ll have banked for the 1 invested - and still have about another full BTC left in MCO, which is to say, paid for 4 times over.  That’s not an easy, nor very objective process. Should have been a 2.5% scalping position rebalanced/traded at 5% at most, but I gave it a bit more rein. It’s a good project, but still “on paper” only, so I’ll be cautious now with the gains. As mentioned before in this thread, the rules for more “investment grade” stuff (what I don’t care to become a bagholder with) in a bear market are to limit them to a 5% swing position (that can also have a 2.5% trading amount added to it). I’ve got us in an intermediate term upswing at present though, so those figures are now doubled. Whenever they get to 30% portfolio percentages, they get “rebalanced”. Also as mentioned before in this thread, LTC is my favorite, should not drop below 25%, and has been as high as 50+%. In the bear market environment of last June-July, it was brought lower. Not all selling is portfolio balancing based. Myriadcoin was a good example. I did not like what I was seeing technically, and I sold on small spikes to get out with a marginal gain. The same thing happened with Nxt, but only with a remnant position since I had a prior profit of an approximate 4x on 60% of the position. You also asked about USDT in another post. I had all my fiat equivalent in SBD, not USDT. I share your same concerns about USDT. My position in SBD was also a hedge, reached a 30% of the portfolio position, and, along with LTC (which was being used by many as a hedge too) was intended, as such, to neutralize any move either positive or negative and basically keep me “flat”. Next time I do plan to also use BitUSD as well, and for very short term hedge protection, I will use USDT, but, again, very short term, and with lots of caution. As I warned you before, it's not really all that “rational” of a process, despite being founded on rational thought and decision making. Flexibility is very important. After all, we’re actually responding to dynamic processes, and that means the input data is constantly changing and we need to adjust accordingly. Nonetheless, the interpretation of that data is subjective, and that’s what turns theoretical objectivity into something that looks a little more like "flying by the seat of your pants” than rational. That having been said, and to answer another question, this one about what was special about my picks, here we have, aside from the technicals, something that is much more objective. LTC is going to be the BTC replacement, doing what BTC once did (safe storage of wealth), and more – it’s faster and more innovative, and will eventually have a much larger real world use market share than BTC. There’s only 4 times as many LTC as there are BTC, which means it should be valued at around $1,100.00 USD at least! It's the best most undervalued coin out there in my opinion. STEEM is a game changer in blogging, period. BTS is the basis for the first decentralized crypto exchange that I think is very possibly here to stay. SYS has a crypto based market place in the pipeline that looks extremely promising. Those are my big plays. PIVX, XMG, NLG and GRS are more speculative, long shot bets. PIVX is using the masternode concept, XMG has a very interesting PoS code base, and GRS is a GPU mine only coin that really protects the interests of the small players thereby making it one of the few truly decentralized widely distributed coins really available to the masses. GRS could be a major winner one of these days. NLG is similar in a number of ways to GRS, and in spite of being aimed chiefly at the Netherlands, could gain worldwide acceptance just as the Swiss Franc has. And just like LTC, they're all either undervalued or extremely undervalued! That’s a generalized summary of the fundamentals, but they also need to be backed by positive assessments of the dev teams, future plans, user adoption, market acceptance, etc., so there's obviously lots more that goes into it. Then, when you see big money going after the same names, that helps to firm up decision making. All these markets trade very technically – the opposite of emotional markets – meaning professionals are highly involved. All in all, we’ve got great technicals combined with great fundamentals in all of these coins, and I would not be bothered in the least if I had to become a temporary bagholder and wait a year instead of a couple of months to reach targets with any of them. As I’ve said before in this thread, the ultimate question I ask myself about any investment is if I would mind becoming a bagholder at the price I’m paying. If the answer is yes, then I don’t go there. Hope this has helped to answer some of your questions. Do take the time to study the thread. I’m certain it will be worth every bit of your time. And don’t hesitate to ask more questions or even for clarification. It’s good for me to keep the wheels spinning!  Sold around 60% of my remaining MCO.  https://i.imgur.com/xYzS9l8.jpgIt'll probably move higher now. 
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I'm not sure if this has been asked before but, how are you valuating your porfolio? Are you using the historical cost of the initial btc you invested with or are you valuating with the btc price changes?
EOD (End Of Day) quotes in BTC, then translated into USD. That way you have both BTC and USD valuations. For the reasons cited many times before in this thread, everything here is current, real time, EOD USD. The same thing that Coinmarketcap does, just that they do it averaging over all listed exchanges, and I only use Bittrex data. http://coinmarketcap.com/ |
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 https://i.imgur.com/kfLjTXh.jpgCurrent Weightings: LTC 30.08% STEEM 14.53% BTS 13.73% MCO 11.25% SYS 10.24% PIVX 6.36% NLG 6.34% BTC 3.54% GRS 3.48% XMG .45% And remember, don't chase! Be patient. Nothing goes anywhere in a straight line. There will be a major correction! It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that this is the time to be taking profits, NOT buying. Also remember that Alts are ultimately valued in BTC - this is without a doubt speculation in BOTH Alts and BTC, and when BTC heads south, so will Alts (perhaps not so much in BTC terms, but in USD it will hurt just as much as the drop in BTC - just like they benefited on the way up).  https://i.imgur.com/b28K6hI.jpghttps://blockchain.info/charts/market-price?timespan=allBTC lost over 80% of its value from Dec. 2013 to Jan. 2015. |
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Now i have nearly 10k$ in bitcoins. If i followed you from the start with that amount, i would have had 60k$! (which nearly equals my whole life savings) That's crazy!
Not to worry. I'm sure you'll get your chance. There will be a major correction down the road that you'll be able to buy into. It's not a question of if, it's only a question a when. |
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Bro/Sis, this is one of the longest comments I have ever read on this forum aside from obviously signature campaign/announcement/bounty threads which can sometimes be longer, for obvious reasons. Just want to say thank you for writing long posts to keep this community alive, because without them this forum would just be filled with spammers posting one-liners and not contributing anything to the conversation.  Really appreciate your comment. My intent is to try and do just that. I remember the camaraderie of the early days when we were mainly mining and we worked together and shared information freely. It really was widely distributed and decentralized! With the advent of the miserly meanness of our new “era” of trading, self-branded P&D, I want to try to do my small part to bring back that sense of cooperative, “open source” environment back to crypto, and this fabulous forum that is one of the most important “windows” and first point of entry for many a crypto noob is, in my opinion, one of the best places to do that. Thanks again, and don’t be a stranger. |
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Regarding ICO’s, and MCO: I don’t much like ICO’s since most are losers, just like I don’t like lottery tickets either. Once in a while there’s something that’s interesting and novel with a strong, experienced team behind it though. Can’t say that MCO is the only one there is, but it’s what I happened to come across while researching more established prospects, and I liked it. Nonetheless, it’s a short term trade and nothing more at this point. Still got around a 3rd of the initial investment and I think we’ll see higher prices to sell into. I wouldn’t be buying at these levels though, based on what I know, but the price objective could be a whole lot higher. I’ll take my short term gains, maybe keep 10 or 20 MCO for the hell of it, and then buy back later once I’ve seen real world implementation. Regarding fees: the answer is basically no, the model portfolio doesn’t reflect fees. Sometimes it does, like when the trade amount is the exact of that for my own account, but otherwise, most of the time, when working with relative percentages, I don’t go to the trouble. The percentage difference is so minimal that it’s not worth my time. BTC or USD? Sometimes one’s up more than the other, and vice versa. The USD is the world’s currency “baseline”, so I use that, ‘cause sometimes BTC is up more than Alts, and sometime it’s the Alts that are up - if you’re doing your job right, theoretically your USD balance should always be moving higher (the exception being when everything crashes in unison, and then you’d better be in USD). Start a blog? I’ve blogged before, and I’m not sure. Don’t know if it would really change anything much. My posts and comments, replies, etc. I am doing something similar on Steemit right now - @cryptographic - but not exactly the same. Not sure, but I’ll keep giving it the thought it deserves. Am I really brave? No, I don’t think so. Am I taking a big risk? Not at all. How can I say those things? One word: diversification. Actually, I’m a coward with extremely low risk tolerance. @Kopen, your last post deserves more time than I have right now and I will answer you later – don’t get your hopes up though, I might have something resembling a rational framework, but I’m afraid that I don’t have a strictly objective one.  Thanks again everyone for all your well wishes, comments and contributions - I encourage everyone to get your feet wet with whatever speculative capital you may have. It doesn’t have to be 4 figures either! You can start out small. There’s plenty of time. Crypto will be around for a while, and this early growth phase should last a few more years still. Don’t chase, be patient, and you’ll have a great correction to buy into sooner or later. Guaranteed! |
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Looks like this one might be getting away. I could be wrong, but the portfolio needs rebalancing and this has got to be done. Bought another 20,000 SYS. Got SYS coming out of my ears.  https://i.imgur.com/SiVxjKB.jpgAnd with that I'm done rebalancing for now. Will start answering some questions and replying to comments. |
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Back from travels. Here's the update for the week ending Aug 19:  https://i.imgur.com/EE6A9hO.jpgWeightings as of last Saturday's close: LTC 31.35% BTC 22.72% MCO 9.77% BTS 9.53% STEEM 9.29% NLG 6.13% SYS 6.05% PIVX 4.55% XMG .58% GRS .03% This week's update will be posted tomorrow as usual. Also bought around 22,000 BTS a few minutes ago. I'm doing some portfolio rebalancing and have some more bids in where things are looking tasty.  https://i.imgur.com/hPVf8vL.jpg |
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I agree that looking at 21/84 = 0.25 is too simplistic and is not likely.
Why? If it's just as good, and in many respects better, why not AT LEAST 1/4? Actually, I would argue that eventually it'll be worth more than 1/4. |
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With the built in 100% per year inflation this would mean that people would have to buy so many coins that the market cap doubles every year in order to keep the coin price stable.
That seems hilarious to me.
That was changed last year. Don't have the link right now, but you can search this thread for it. Cheers |
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I'm traveling on vacation right now. As I said in my last weekend update, I won't be updating until I get back, but with the spikes in my XMG and MCO long shots, it's necessary to do a drive-by. Obviously had sell orders in on everything, and sold about 75% of my XMG and 2/3, more or less, of my MCO, based on my "in my head math" from the less user friendly mobil website. Now got a sell order in on all that BTC in the low 5 thousands - my BTC target for now.
Now if we can just get the larger cap, more conservative, alts to do something, that would be great. Everything is valued in USD, so at least I'm not getting hurt by them. I don't have the hard data with me, but I estimate that the portfolio has increased by another 20% or so.
Thanks for participation, interest, and support. Will answer questions more in depth when I get back.
Cheers
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 https://i.imgur.com/CriCcqN.jpgCurrent Portfolio Weightings: LTC 37.97% BTS 15.39% STEEM 13.41% MCO 10.26% SYS 7.20% NLG 6.12% PIVX 5.71% BTC 2.05% XMG 1.85% GRS 0.05% Fairly steady, diversified portfolio - if I’d only just given a little weighting to the BTC trade. Can’t backtrack, but sure can learn. I made a cycle related misjudgement, as can be clearly seen in the chart below (that’s a few days old, but still serves its purpose).  https://i.imgur.com/8h9qxcu.jpgNonetheless, “cycles” are far from written in stone, and the direct and inverse relationships with BTC also come and go. In any event, with my main holdings looking like the charts below, showing intuitively understood bullish TA: price is obviously moving from lower left to upper right, I'm happy with where it is and current positioning. It’s just a matter of time for breakouts, and, well . . . for another doubling or tripling?  https://i.imgur.com/kjGnniF.jpgWhat things are doing in USD terms is obviously what’s more important IMHO. Will be OOTO for a couple of weeks. Will update again once I'm back. (Might pop in on Twitter though. Follow me if you haven't already. @HR_DGB) Cheers! Oh, and thanks everyone for all your comments, recommendations and knowledge sharing! Edit: Forgot to tell you that I sold roughly .2 BTC worth of MCO yesterday night (hence the increase in BTC). That's all folks! |
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Earlier today I liquidated the last little bit of MYR, now XMY on Bittrex too, and bought some XMG to introduce it. Just looked at the XMG chart, and WOW! Was only ~.20000000 BTC worth, no big deal, and was just going to mention it on next Sunday's update (which will be the last for a couple of weeks - am on vacation and will be away), but with such a spike, thought I'd better mention it now. Something about a "HODL Movement".  Check it out for yourselves. Sorry I don't have time for that right now. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=735170.msg20693379#msg20693379If you're looking to get in, anything between .00005200 and .00005750 would work. Remember, play safe and light, and never more than you can afford to lose.  Good little coin by the way. I've got much more in my personal portfolio. Cheers. EDIT: That was a couple of hours ago. Not even a bounce!  Oh well. Very good example of what a shitty trader I am and why I believe so much in diversification and taking a longer term view. Still a good long term bet though, IMO. It's also a good sign from an intermediate term cyclical standpoint - it could be signaling that there's more to come. |
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FROM SLACK:
"Here is a machine translation of Bobby's above statement.
@amintek15, What was the original language that was translated from? |
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Can you say Bitcoin?  https://i.imgur.com/EDsP38J.jpgCurrent Portfolio Weightings: LTC 41.3% BTS 16.1% STEEM 13.4% SYS 9.1% NLG 8% PIVX 6.5% MCO 4.6% MYR .9% GRS .07% BTC .03% |
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