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141  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will be 10k+ Q1 2014. on: December 12, 2013, 04:18:54 PM
I've run some calculations and have been tracking the growth trend. The rate of growth that new people are coming into Bitcoin is very high, media attention is high, and that means demand is high.

I believe Bitcoin is growing faster now than it was in April and will be growing even faster in Q1 2014 because there will be better infrastructure. Once we have an easy way to buy and store Bitcoins the demand will so far outweigh the supply that the price will go from $1000 to $10,000 within a matter of weeks. We will see growth spurts of $1000+ in a matter of 48hrs or less.

I predict it will peak out at around $15,000 and that all of this will happen between January 2014 and May 2014.  Remember this thread to see if I'm right when the time comes and if I am right you can tip me.
16AgTxbEARQN2BnxVfZcLgtBFb1TBjbJiw


Translation: I'm making a random unsubstantiated guess hoping that some inbred cretin will tip me.

This post is going to provide me with great amusement this spring when the price is above $10,000. I gave hints on the data points required to make the calculation but I'll reiterate one more time.

You need the highest market cap of 2013. The highest market cap of 2012. The highest market cap of 2011. This forms a trend line on a chart.

You need to look at rate of the growth in users of blockchain.info an Coinbase which also forms a trend line on a chart.

You need to look at the pace of that growth, how long did it take to reach an 8, no a 10, 12 billion dollar market cap? Then you have to determine if its possible that we could reach 100 billion dollar market cap sometime thing spring.

I say yes it's not only possible but it's going to happen. I believe we have reached the tipping point which generally is reached before exponential growth. We saw the same trend with twitter, facebook, etc. After we reach a certain level of users the tipping point is reached and the exponential growth phase is entered. I believe we are entering that phase now.

You'll see the evidence of what I'm talking about in early February when the price should pass $2000, then $5000. By April or May it will be $10,000+.


142  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will be 10k+ Q1 2014. on: December 12, 2013, 04:13:50 PM
Quote
I've run some calculations

However you do not post any of your "calculations" which makes this thread worth nothing. Basically you are just guessing.



I could reveal my calculations but that takes the fun and mystery away. Just check back on this thread when the time comes.

For a hint:

Others here have done similar calculations with charts and have extrapolated the market cap for 2014 based on what happened in 2013. It's not hard to figure out that if growth happens at the exact same rate as in 2013 that we will surpass $10,000 in Q1 2014. You can look at the chart from 2013 and put it side by side with the chart from 2012, 2011, and then base it on the growth rate in the past.

People who don't think Bitcoin can surpass $10,000 in 2014 Q1 are day traders who never once took a look at the all time logarithmic chart, or looked at the untapped potential market cap, or the rate of growth of new users. For example Coinbase has 600,000 users right now and is growing at a rate of hundreds of thousands of new years a month. Coinbase will pass 1 million users in Q1 2014 and they just received 25 million in investment.

I will reiterate, $10,000-15,000 Q1 2014. If I'm right by May 2014 then remember to tip my Bitcoin address.

143  Economy / Speculation / Bitcoin will be 10k+ Q1 2014. on: December 12, 2013, 12:16:17 PM
I've run some calculations and have been tracking the growth trend. The rate of growth that new people are coming into Bitcoin is very high, media attention is high, and that means demand is high.

I believe Bitcoin is growing faster now than it was in April and will be growing even faster in Q1 2014 because there will be better infrastructure. Once we have an easy way to buy and store Bitcoins the demand will so far outweigh the supply that the price will go from $1000 to $10,000 within a matter of weeks. We will see growth spurts of $1000+ in a matter of 48hrs or less.

I predict it will peak out at around $15,000 and that all of this will happen between January 2014 and May 2014.  Remember this thread to see if I'm right when the time comes and if I am right you can tip me.
16AgTxbEARQN2BnxVfZcLgtBFb1TBjbJiw
144  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will BTC hit $10.000 in Q1 of 2014 ? on: December 12, 2013, 12:10:25 PM

It is possible that the price to raise up to $10.000 in the Q1 of 2014 ?



Possible, but extremely unlikely, IMO.

I think it's very likely based on the growth in 2013. I don't see growth slowing down, it's speeding up.

I will be the first one here to predict that we will surpass 10k in Q1 2014.
145  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: MasterCoin: New Protocol Layer Starting From “The Exodus Address” on: December 12, 2013, 09:42:14 AM
Regarding hiring without consulting the community, there is a reason that companies hire a CEO to make all the decisions, rather than having all stakeholders weigh in on every hire. We are giving Ron room as Executive Director to do his job, and even if he makes mistakes on the way (and he undoubtedly will) I vastly prefer that to decision-by-committee.

Ron and David both told me two days ago that their goal is to dissolve the foundation and have *all* decisions determined by proof-of-stake voting. They are trying to put the governance of the protocol into the protocol itself.

Proof-of-stake voting will almost certainly not ask every person to weigh in on every decision (that would be horribly inefficient). Instead, we'll elect someone to be in charge of a block of money for a block of time. At the end of that time, we'll elect someone else (or the same person, if we like how they ran things) for the next block of money and block of time. The size of the blocks of money and blocks of time will also be decided by proof-of-stake voting.

For instance, we might vote to give Ron authorization to spend 5% of the project funds over the following three months. If Ron does a terrible job, we might elect somebody else after that. If we like how Ron spent the money, we might elect him again.
Couldn't we use multisig transactions for this?
146  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why are you all so worried ? on: December 09, 2013, 10:58:37 PM
I noticed people are too nervous to buy in, volatile markets can cause widespread fear which the smart money use to capitalize on. Look at it this way, if Bitcoin can achieve $1250 in such an EARLY stage you really think this is the end ? This is just the start people and the fact Bitcoin is valued so highly is because there is really nothing left in this world to invest in, every other assets class is either too confusing, too overvalued or too manipulated. $10,000 is easily achievable in the next 2 years at this rate.

Whatever price you buy in at right now you are guaranteed a minimum of 100% Return within 1 year (v conservative estimate), what other investment provides you the same returns ? None !

Bitcoin is still EARLY stages, Think about it guys just look at other assets/stocks like gold, oil, real estate, agriculture, Google, apple etc etc people screamed bubble from day 1 of their booms but it took at least 6 - 12 years for those bubbles to burst ! Bitcoin barely started.

Take a deep breath, study the fundamentals you will realize how genius crypto currencies are and how lucky you are to be in so early and Buy in !

$60,000-150,000 within the next 12 months.
147  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will BTC hit $10.000 in Q1 of 2014 ? on: December 09, 2013, 10:51:37 PM
My own view is that it will reach $5k within 12 months.

Its just frustrating having no money to throw at it, although, I know if I was borrowing money, I would have wasted it on various alt coins! ;-)



60-150k within 12 months.
148  Economy / Speculation / Re: What started the recent price rise in BTC? on: December 06, 2013, 11:21:25 PM
What exactly started the recent run-up in BTC prices from about the $100-$200 price range all the way into the $1000 price range?

Institutional investors. It all started with the creation and launch of the Bitcoin Investment Trust in September.
149  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: New paper: Accelerating Bitcoin's Trasaction Processing on: December 06, 2013, 09:57:04 AM
Brilliant solution. I really hope developers pick this up.
150  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Cryptocoin Mining Information -- find the most profitable coin to mine! on: December 04, 2013, 03:14:17 PM
Add protoshares.
151  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: MasterCoin: New Protocol Layer Starting From “The Exodus Address” on: December 04, 2013, 12:10:50 PM
Twice as many people could be in favor of a policy decision...
So a guy who holds one bitcoin should have a vote as strong as JRs?  'One man, one vote' - is that what you advocate?  JR and others holding significant amounts don't want morons voting to do dumb things because it greatly effects their value - while minimally effecting the stupid voter.  

Just like voting stock shares, those most effected need a greater say.  

This is getting stupid.  How did guys like bitexch get involved in the first place?  



I disagree. I think one man one vote is better but my opinion doesn't matter because I don't have 10,000 MSC.

The reason it matters to me is because I think people who are already rich may end up with different priorities from people who aren't. If you're a millionaire already you might not make the same decisions. If someone has only a few MSC they would want those few MSC to be worth a lot, but if someone has a lot of MSC they might not care as much how MSC are worth because they have enough money already.

People with less MSC are more hungry. I've seen with BTC that some of the most active and true believers also don't have a lot of BTC so they believe BTC will go to the moon and they will be the strongest hands who wont sell. Someone who has 1000 BTC or more will probably be thinking about selling it right now.
152  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: MasterCoin: New Protocol Layer Starting From “The Exodus Address” on: December 04, 2013, 12:06:52 PM

At some point I remember saying that if we voted on what features to work on next, I planned to abstain. This was because it seemed wrong for me to hold the keys to ALL the project money AND use my large stake in MSC to bully what we worked on. However, I've been divvying up our project funds for security reasons, and once we move to a decentralized bounty system, this will be far less of a concern, and I will be perfectly happy to vote on how those project funds are used, along with the rest of you. Certainly I won't be able to dictate the direction of the project without a lot of you agreeing with me.

I think you are missing the point. The only reason you would ever exercise all 28% of your voting rights is if you wanted to do something the majority of the community was against. Twice as many people could be in favor of a policy decision as against it, and you could single-handedly turn the vote against the policy.

I don't think you're quite considering the seriousness of the situation.

EDIT: If your voting rights aren't limited (either to a definite, *much smaller* percentage or to none at all), then there won't be anything to say to critics who complain about Mastercoin's centralization - they will be right!


My biggest priority right now is to get our devs focused on this project full-time. We're currently discussing that with them, but they each have their own unique situation.

Have you considered looking outside of the project for full-time devs? There are people who are currently not involved in Mastercoin who would be well suited to it. I am surprised that it needs repeating, but a few of our current main devs have repeatedly said that they do not want to work on Mastercoin full-time, and I don't see why we should keep trying to convince them.We have a great idea and lots of funding, I don't see any reason for begging people to develop the project.


You have to make sure any developer you choose can be trusted by the community and someone who cares about the Mastercoin project. Just choosing random developers for critical functionality is a security mistake.
153  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Depressed that I was not an early adopter on: November 30, 2013, 06:31:44 PM
You'll feel a lot worse in 5 years when they're 40k a coin.... why didn't you buy when they were only 800 Tongue

Seriously, nobody on the street knows what a bitcoin is.  It's still SUPER EARLY.

That will probably be next year.
154  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Depressed that I was not an early adopter on: November 30, 2013, 06:27:46 PM
Can't help but feel this way

You are an early adopter. How many people do you know who have Bitcoins? When everyone has it like with Facebook that is when you should be depressed.
155  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Oh please, Bitcoin is NOT deflationary. on: November 30, 2013, 06:25:12 PM
Time and time people say bitcoin is 'deflationary'. That is wrong.

As if we already know that bitcoin's price relative to others assets will always be rising. Ridiculous. An expectation like that would cause people to buy bitcoin, cause its price to rise, right up to the point where the expectation is GONE. Period!

The misunderstanding comes from the fact that bitcoins cannot be created endlessly, unlike government issued currency. But it is the quantity that is fixed, not the price.

In an expanding economy the same amount of bitcoins would be continually distributed on an ever increasing quantity of goods, which would mean sustained deflation. It is not that difficult to understand really...

Each Bitcoin is 100 million Satoshi so you have a long way to go before we run out.
156  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Alderney looks to cash in on virtual Bitcoins with Royal Mint reality on: November 30, 2013, 06:23:45 PM
There is also an interesting Editorial discussing Bitcoin:

Banking on Bitcoin - Virtual currencies could rival banknotes, but not bankers

If a small city state had adopted Bitcoin as its national currency, it would now be in the grip of deflation as foreign speculators siphoned away its supply of the virtual currency. Money would be scarce, and prices would fall dramatically. Authorities might try to lift prices but they would lack one of their most powerful tools. Central bankers can create money at will, by printing notes or creating deposits. Bitcoin is based on digital tokens, which are generated at an unalterable rate by cryptographic algorithms running on the computers of volunteers, making it impossible to match supply to demand. This is an improbable fantasy. But Bitcoin’s undulating value makes it unsuitable for all but the most limited purposes. Speculators are the keenest acquirers of the currency. For some, it is a way of stashing wealth where authorities cannot find it. Others want to make purchases without leaving an obvious trace. Silk Road, the online contraband emporium that was closed by authorities last month, was one of the few businesses to insist on payment in Bitcoin. But many prices were pegged to the dollar; the virtual money served merely as a way of disguising the flow of hard currency.

Still, if Bitcoin’s applications are limited, its emergence as a workable means of exchange nonetheless reveals something surprising. Friedrich Hayek argued that the government should cede its monopoly over the money supply, leaving consumers free to choose between competing currencies. It turns out that they were already freer than they thought. Authorities have so far tolerated the virtual currency. Yet the product of the state-owned incumbent has proved more attractive than Hayek expected.

The experiment is an indication of how monetary systems might change in future. Many believed it impossible to create a form of electronic cash that did not rely on a bank to keep tabs on account balances. Bitcoin proved them wrong. But many are uneasy about reversing the technological accident that has made financial transactions more traceable in the era of electronic banking.

Some see tamper-proof virtual currencies as preferable to physical ones that central bankers can easily debase. The island of Alderney is in talks with Royal Mint to make physical coins backed by Bitcoins in its electronic vault. But enthusiasts should be careful what they wish for. An unstable price level is dangerous. Removing the steering-wheel is the wrong way to prevent central bankers from driving the economy off the road.


How would it run out when it's divisible? People who don't know shit shouldn't be talking about Bitcoins.
157  Other / Off-topic / Re: A warning about Rpietila on: November 30, 2013, 05:22:37 PM
Looks like someone is freaking out that Risto might talk the price down.

It takes a lot of talent to talk up the price and then talk it down. He's a genius at it or he genuinely believes what he is saying. I think he genuinely believes what he is saying.
158  Other / Off-topic / Re: A warning about Rpietila on: November 30, 2013, 04:46:02 PM
Had to start a new topic as he deleted my posts in his topic. This is just a reminder to those who might have forgotten or those who are new to bitcoin.

Rpietila is shouting doom and gloom all over the forum, but until the beginning of the year he was predicting a bitcoin valuation of several hundred thousand USD. That was whilst he was in a manic phase, during which his behavior on these forums, as well as in real life caused much sensation and is well documented for those interested in using the search function.

He was subsequently involuntarily hospitalized in a psychiatric facility, diagnosed with Bipolar Affective Disorder, with multiple delusions of grandeur. He now seems to be in a depressive phase of his illness and is spreading doom and gloom on the speculation forums. Either that, or he has sold just before we hit 1000 and is now regretting his mistake.

Either way, thread carefully with him

He's the guy who convinced me to buy Bitcoins when I was sitting on the fence about it. I say give the guy some credit for being one of the most brilliant promoters in the Bitcoin community.

But I don't think he's mentally ill just because you say so and regardless of what you think, he has done well for himself. It might be a good time to cash out for him and enjoy his profit.
159  Economy / Speculation / Re: 1% of offshore tax haven bank accounts in bitcoin = $2.8million/btc -trace mayer on: November 30, 2013, 02:20:46 PM
Quote
"If you moved just 1% of the cash balances from off shore tax haven bank accounts, which currently hold estimated 30 trillion dollars of value, if you move just 1% of that into bitcoin you are looking at 2.8 million dollars per bitcoin"
That was a quote from trace mayer from (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZwmgeeFB-E&t=7m15s)

Is this right? Can anyone point out a flaw in this reasoning? That 1% figure makes 2.8 million dollars per bitcoin sound oddly conservative and saying 2.8 million dollars per btc is conservative makes me feel like i sound like I'm out of my mind. What do you guys think?

But that will never happen in that way. Bitcoin is a terrible tax haven because it's not cash, it's not anonymous, everyone can trace it whether it be Mallory or Gordon.

I would say it will definitely get over $10,000-100,000. It might get into the highs of $500,000-700,000 or even reach $1,000,000 but if it does it will not be because of people trying to avoid taxes and even if it is that wouldn't stop the IRS from confiscating.

Having said that if they do that and the tax cheats get their coins confiscated then the price will only rise much more for people who file their taxes. Criminals who hoard coins and who get arrested cannot spend their coins and so the price goes up again.
160  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: MasterCoin: New Protocol Layer Starting From “The Exodus Address” on: November 29, 2013, 12:07:20 PM
BTW I just wanted to let you guys know there are a lot of unanswered questions about Mastercoin on Quora.

If you have a bit of time, you can jump in and help answer them, and even get some bounty as part of the Documentation Contest.



I answered some of them.  

By the way take a look at Bettermeans http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAlnMWlvw9g
It's the best project management software I've seen for incentivizing development, organizing and communicating. I advise that the Mastercoin foundation take a close look at it and consider implementing it in addition to Discourse which I also favor for similar reasons.

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