You think we will go below 250?
Wouldn't surprise me. The log downtrend line is falling rapidly. We just have to float here and we will break it in the next few months. Meanwhile heavy selling pressure has gone. And transactions are..  Whilst people say bitcoin isn't gaining ground (and breaking through the penultimate ATH was a hit no doubt) google trends show steady growth..  Short term predictions of market movements is a mug's game. But with companies dumping 100,000,000 dollars into stealth startups and US banks forming bitcoin alliances, former JPM commodities managers entering the space, US regulated exchanges coming on board - +/- ETF along with a halving next year, I see no reason to abandon ship. I think we have at least one last bubble left and bitcoin is cheap here. Just over 20,000 people worldwide buying 5 coins a month can swallow the entire mining supply even now. When the next halving happens do you think there will be more or less people buying bitcoin?  |
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First chart prediction for a while*:  *especially for you dump3r. |
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So we are down 5 dollars and there seems to be a real lack of selling and no increased shorting. The reason? Retail has been burnt several times already since 230's (just ask tarmi). The bear market 'short all rallies' approach isn't the sure thing it was for the last few months - in fact a single whale can push us up at any time - and this will be accompanied by the legion of bitcoin buying if we pass 300. Sure the long interest has risen but lets be clear it isn't unduly high by any objective measure based upon the last year.  Furthermore most of the borrowed USD is in the money and therefore not at risk of a 'squeeze' or at worry of being too expensive to maintain the position (0.7% a week after a 30% gain!). We may drop a bit though i'm not seeing it yet. Where is the heavy speculator increased in shorting? But short away gamblers! |
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This is pretty dull
Ok, who woke-up the dumpers? nobody. longs closing. Indeed. It's become fairly clear that we won't break out past $300 anytime soon. ha |
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yeah I got pretty emo reading that, I've known lophie as a community member whose posts I respect for some time so good to see older members getting something back. What is annoying is the number of scams that over balance the scales when it comes to this sort of thing... There is a really cute thread somewhere a while back started by a kid raising money for his dog to have an operation. The potential donors were quite rigorous requesting proof, and ultimately a few guys covered the entire costs and there's now a nice trail of photos and heart warming thank you posts and such Wow. That nearly brought a tear to my eye. Wish I had known about the thread realtime. |
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Not much follow through selling so far.. Hope you aren't getting bear trapped |
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Now would be an excellent time for a Loaded smiley.
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Interesting day. Bitcoin sat in the 290's feeling like it is on the edge of a precipice in a sea of good news.
Bears afraid to short. Bulls afraid to surge through the last few thousand coins to 300.
Two months ago this would have meant a massive increase in shorting and a dispiriting waterfall lower.
Which way do we go!
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Surprised noone is mentioning Rakuten..
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Decentralised or not you can still manipulate the markets. That much is obvious.
I agree. BTC/USD above 100$ is beyond ridiculous. The black market for drugs and other things(...) has to grow a lot more to support a price like this. The market has disagreed with you for nearly two years. That makes you..um..wrong! |
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10.000 USD pr coin is what I would say is the real bitcoin price, if the market was fully informed. I think a lot will happen soon, and definitely the prices should be between 1000 and 10000 soon... with the 2500-5000 an more realistic range of the next bull market.
10,000 USD per coin, would make bitcoin only 0.18% of the global money supply (M2). I think this magic currency has the potential to play a much bigger role in global economics  This is exactly why we are still in infancy of the bitcoin history. Its like we still play in the sandbox at the kindergarten. Max Keisers prediction of 1 million dollar pr Bitcoin is worth thinking about on a daily basis. Its just a matter of time. I would say 10.000 dollar pr Bitcoin is the true value by now! With realistic result of this bull market hitting between 2500-5000 USD. The transformation to the free world, will be very interesting in the next bulls of Bitcoin, as more people will be freed from the evil masters and this will contribute till even more people get freed... sorry I got back in the Matrix metaphor, that I have not used for years, as people around me got tired of listening to them in 2004-2007, but now they are very relevant in these days, as it happens in a very real maner with bitcoin as the tool. Thank you for the clip!! makes me feel less alone... you know people around me think I am crasy for loving Bitcoins, by the way anybody have the same problem??? We all love btc. Even the bears and trolls. Especially them :p |
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I can tell you that from march the 10th (min price 289 $) till today there were more than 2.5 mil of new longs opened.
they are paying very high interest rates (more than 0.08 % a day).
so going sideways and staying below 300 is putting a lot of pressure on them.
what is going to happens first? Moon or everyone get margin trapped and forced to dump? So far they have paid 0.5% of 2.5 million in interest. A whopping 12,500 dollars. Pressure? We may well dip you could be right. But we are nowhere near a long squeeze and most of those longs are in the money. |
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There is a lot of room for a long squeeze/over 22mil in longs about 4-5 mill more than *average* . At this price its ~17k btc. Have a look at the books and make your mind up.
Come again? |
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so what do you think guys, will we see $300 this week?
There's still a chance this could break down and fill in below $280, which opens the door to breaking the rising bottom trendline at $260. However this is not what I think will happen (but many chartists are calling for it). If you're not already in now, the lower risk trade would be to go long after $300 is broken and becomes support, confirming the break. how much room do you think there is for a cascading effect of long margin calls if it breaks down to 260ish? This is basically what I'm betting on. Majority of bids in between 255-271, after that, re assess. Otherwise join the bulls above 305 and CCMF for a moment. Could be right..bidside thin right now. I doubt we drop below 280's tbh.. |
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NLC probably banned for paedophilia references.. Long interest falling now 0.09% Next an attack on 300. To the guy shorting because sentiment is bullish - how would that have worked out in 2014? in april 2014, swimmingly... Dec 2014, even better. you miss the point about the fact that at the peak of a bubble, the sentiment is at it's maximum. This occurs just before everyone falls off a cliff together all hugging and telling each other how great they are  my motivation to short is not just about betting against the bulls, but anyways... The thing is you have to wait until the bullish sentiment is crazy ripe. Otherwise you'll simply sell too soon... Look at the 1w chart on bitstamp and point out any bubble we are experiencing. Trying to play the contrarian by betting against forum sentiment can work. But betting against positive sentiment after a 14 month bear market when the price isnt even out of the long term log down trend seems..risky. |
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Suppose we have a technology at our disposal where we can move fiat currencies or anything else of value (that is not supposed to be double spent) using a distributed ledger system (allowing cheap, instant, global trust-less transfers) that is not dependent on the price of a native cryptotoken (that in this case you would not need) and using this distributed ledger system for smart contracts. In this case, should bitcoin be valuable? What do you think? Yes? No? Why? VC money in the crypto space is more interested in the blockchain that in bitcoin, as any statement from these entities clearly shows. They all agree that "the blockchain is the main innovation". So far the criticisms to the "it's about the blockchain, not bitcoin, stupid" way of thinking ( http://www.miscmagazine.com/its-the-block-chain-stupid/) consists in saying that the blockchain is dependent on bitcoin (the miners need an incentive to keep the network running, the price of the token needs to be sufficiently high because security etc). Therefore no bitcoin = no blockchain ( https://twitter.com/nvk/status/522115773918359552) But what if we had a system that works with decent security that doesn't rely on that cryptotoken? Wouldn't that make all cryptocurrencies themselves pretty much useless (unless they have a specific purpose that is not just a necessary security mechanism)? Then sure, you might simply consider bitcoin to be valuable because it can be a store of value/new currency/replacement of fiat. But the world might not find these use cases to be useful, compromising bitcoin's high valuation scenarios. How do you secure this mythical distributed blockchain allowing frictionless transfer of any assets? I am not sure why you cannot see the value in the bitcoin blockchain. There are literally hundreds of other chains out there and the vast majority are worthless. The btc chain has value because people give it value. It had value with virtually no utility - simply as a transferable digital asset. Now its utility is going through the roof and the original monetary fundamentals of the currency remain as valid today at 300 dollars as they were two years ago at 30 dollars. Algorithmically limited by design. I see a future with many digital chains which can interact, but there will always be a place for a digital gold-like asset such as bitcoin. I hope you aren't caught shorting bitcoin right now. |
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Fiatcoin is nearly here: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/12/us-bitcoin-ibm-idUSKBN0M82KB20150312\ Unlike bitcoin, where the network is decentralized and there is no overseer, the proposed digital currency system would be controlled by central banks, the source said.
"These coins will be part of the money supply," the source said. "It's the same money, just not a dollar bill with a serial number on it, but a token that sits on this blockchain." Nice. Now they won't even have to turn on the printing presses. Just type in a big number and hit enter. I'm assuming this means we then get accurate insight into exactly what the money supply is. No more shadowstats! No more government handwaving about inflation! Not such a bad thing? Or likely to come to pass! |
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NLC probably banned for paedophilia references.. Long interest falling now 0.09% Next an attack on 300. To the guy shorting because sentiment is bullish - how would that have worked out in 2014? |
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I dont margin trade and use obscure exchanges like bitfinex.
already did on bitfinex in 295 range few days ago...
LOL pwnage. lel if you are quoting me try not to miss some post in between. ... come on bulls, push it a little bit higher, dont disappoint me now. Did you close your short you opened at 295? |
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Yeah, I also did this some time ago. It's just so incredibly depressing to see how cheap the coins were back then. You could have loaded up on so many and now they're so expensive. Makes me wanna cry ;(
If bitcoin continues to grow then someone will read your post in another year or two and shed a tear |
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