you know, you should just STFU. we all know you're a paid shill basher of bitcoin. otherwise, you wouldn't be spending so much time here and you would've taken my bet of 100 BTC to you. when bitcoin skyrockedts again, you're gonna lose your job.
Nagle, I would love to hear your reply to cypherdoc's accusations. From the posts I have read from both of you, it would seem that cypherdoc's assessment is correct. No one is paying me. Nor do I need a job. I'm not anonymous. I'm on here under my real name, John Nagle. I'm reasonably well known in the early history of the Internet; look in any TCP/IP textbook. I've run "downside.com" for the last 10 years, and have a good track record in publicly predicting what's going to collapse well before it does. I called the dot-com crash company by company with a automated simple cash flow analysis, the mortgage crisis (in 2004, 2006, and 2007), the oil spike (in 2005), and the auto industry bankruptcies, back when the conventional wisdom was that the world economy had reached a "great moderation". I was right, and many others were wrong. So who is this "cypherdoc" person, anyway? |
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This is two guys with no financial experience operating out of a house in Florida. The odds are that they will screw up. Merchants need legal protection for when they do.
A little harsh, but they should have hired a lawyer to do their legal. They are nice enough guys in person. You really want to know what their terms are before even talking to them. This matters a lot. PayPal is noted for one-sided terms of service. WePay, which was supposed to be a better alternative to PayPal, originally had terms of service like "we can cancel your account and keep the money". They've since fixed that. Dwolla started with no written terms of service and then started reversing transactions. Mt. Gox still doesn't have terms of service, and has reversed transactions. The online money transfer industry has a bad record, and the Bitcoin-related operators have an even worse one. |
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A drop from $5 to $1 will take a similar change as a drop from $20 to $4, in otherwords, it will take at least a few months to do it, not 3 or 4 weeks.
One would expect that. But that's not what Bitcoin has been doing. It's been declining linearly for the last 3 months, at $4 per month.  Obviously that can't go on, since the price would go below 0 some time in late October. The endgame isn't clear. It will really be over when the exchanges shut down due to lack of sufficient commission revenue. |
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$1k for a 1.8 ghash board, anyone? As a rule of thumb, figure a profitable retail price on electronics as 4x the parts cost. 2x in real volume, like a cell phone. What's your time worth? |
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 Bitcoin/USD, last 6 months. Speculative bubble, bubble pops, long slow slide.Bitcoin's behavior isn't that complicated. The 30 day moving average has smoothly declined $4 a month for the last 3 months. (The brown line is a 30 day trailing moving average, so shift it 15 days to the left to line it up with the data.) The "rallies" and "crashes" in the last 3 months are short-term noise. After each "crash" there's a recovery, but each top is lower than the last. The end is in sight. |
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OK, that's a quick start. We now know that "bit-pay" is operating out of an house, who's behind it, and some other things they're doing. So if they "lose" any funds, it's clear where to send lawyers and cops.
They do not hold your earnings, you receive those into your wallet every day. So worst case scenario is they steal one transaction and the company packs up and moves to Singapore. All for your 5 BTC. I expect to see contractual statements like "all payments made after NNN will be transmitted to ACH by NNN". They have all of those covered on their website. https://bit-pay.com/legal.htmlNo, they do not. They have an "acceptable use policy", plagiarized from PayPal's acceptable use policy, and a "privacy policy", plagiarized from PayPal's privacy policy. They do not have any terms which contractually bind "bit-pay" with regard to financial transactions. This is important. Potential merchants need to know about transaction reversals, chargebacks, payout limitations, delays in payment, separation of customer funds from company funds, and dispute resolution procedures. All of those areas have created major problems for users of other Bitcoin-related services. This is two guys with no financial experience operating out of a house in Florida. The odds are that they will screw up. Merchants need legal protection for when they do. |
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These guys don't sound serious. They want to hire only 3 people, including the CEO, and pay them a "combination of cash salary and equity", which probably means a low wage.
Somebody may eventually launch a successful variant on Bitcoin, but it will probably be someone with the resources to put prepaid cards into every 7-11 and do a large scale launch.
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This doesn't look like a Government takeover. Those are done by serving a court order on the domain registrar, forcing a domain transfer. That didn't happen here. WHOIS still shows the registrant as "Drake Moon", with a bogus street address. The DNS server for "moonco.in" is DNSEXIT.COM, which is a dynamic DNS service. DNSEXIT has been told to route the domain to "a184-86-115-26.deploy.akamaitechnologies.com" [184.86.115.26]. This is part of Akamai's caching server farm for big sites. This doesn't mean that "moonco.in" is hosted by Akamai. It looks more like the owner of "moonco.in" pointed it to an Akamai server used for some part of " www.ice.gov". So the SSL cert returned doesn't match. The basic possibilities are 1) the owner is trying to confuse people, or 2) they signed up for Akamai service to handle a huge amount of traffic. (Many of the top 100 sites on the Internet use Akamai. Few if any low traffic sites do.) |
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Oh, and one more thing. I never denied that bitcoin value is 100% derived from speculation. With absolutely zero revenue and a $1000/hour cost to run the thing by definition it can't be anything else. The question is: what kind off factors are influencing the mindset of said speculators at the moment? IMO the requirement for a large influx of cash from new greater fools is currently one of the biggest. Possible instability and flakiness of mtgox is good runner up. I've been saying that since June 11, 2011, three days after the bubble burst and the price had dropped from $30 to $17. "There's no revenue model here. All growth comes only from new investors. This is a bubble in its pure form." It's been a long, slow slide for months now. Look at the current chart at the head of this topic. As I wrote there, "Any questions?" |
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OK, that's a quick start. We now know that "bit-pay" is operating out of an house, who's behind it, and some other things they're doing. So if they "lose" any funds, it's clear where to send lawyers and cops.
They do not hold your earnings, you receive those into your wallet every day. So worst case scenario is they steal one transaction and the company packs up and moves to Singapore. All for your 5 BTC. Bitcoin's anonymous "financial institutions" have a terrible track record. New ones need to be checked out thoroughly. Who's behind them? Do they have a history of success doing anything else? What do they commit to contractually? How are disputes resolved? I expect to see contractual statements like "all payments made after NNN will be transmitted to ACH by NNN". Reliably getting cash out of Bitcoin's "financial institutions" has been hard. About once a week, someone is complaining that one of the exchanges was supposed to send them money but hasn't. Then we hear someone from the exchange claiming that their bank has dumped them, or their money transfer service is down, or some other "cat ate my homework" excuse for not paying on time. |
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If $5 USD is the Bitcoin Apocalypse, we're very close. $5.17 and dropping.
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OK, let's do some due diligence. bit-pay.com "Domain control only" SSL cert. No business address found on site. Traceroute leads to a Rackspace location. Bit-Pay, LLC Dun and Bradstreet has a report. Location: BIT-PAY LLC 411 E AMELIA ST, ORLANDO, FL Checking address: Property type: Residential Duplex (2 units) Last sale: $635,000 on May 10th, 2005 Bedrooms: 4 Bathrooms: 3 Year built: 1925 Also at this address: SOOPERMODELS LLC, 411 E AMELIA ST, ORLANDO, Florida http://www.soopermodels.com/operates "Stare Magazine" http://www.staremagazine.com/Listed under bit-pay "Featured Merchants" on https://bit-pay.com/featuredMerchants.htmlAlso at this address AEROTECH Checking Florida corporate registration: Florida Limited Liability Company BIT-PAY LLC Filing Information Document Number L11000063599 FEI/EIN Number NONE Date Filed 05/31/2011 State FL Status ACTIVE Principal Address 411 E AMELIA ST ORLANDO FL 32803 Mailing Address 411 E AMELIA ST ORLANDO FL 32803 Registered Agent Name & Address BUSINESS FILINGS INCORPORATED 1203 GOVERNORS SQUARE BLVD STE 101 TALLAHASSEE FL 32301-2960 US Manager/Member Detail Name & Address: Title MGRM GALLIPPI, ANTHONY 411 E AMELIA ST ORLANDO FL 32803 Title MGRM PAIR, STEPHEN 3135 FOXHALL OVERLOOK ROSWELL GA 30075 Annual Reports No Annual Reports Filed Image of filing: http://www.sunbiz.org/COR/2011/0613/00142789.TifEmail address in filing: tonygallippi@gmail.comChecking Anthony Gallippi: http://www.manta.com/g/mm8px9r/anthony-gallippiAerotech Southeast 411 E Amelia Street Orlando, FL 32803-5315 Phone: (407) 426-7797 "Aerotech Southeast in Orlando, FL is a private company which is listed under motion picture producers and studios. Current estimates show this company has an annual revenue of Less than $500,000 and employs a staff of 1 to 4." OK, that's a quick start. We now know that "bit-pay" is operating out of an house, who's behind it, and some other things they're doing. So if they "lose" any funds, it's clear where to send lawyers and cops. |
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*wonders if this was the same kind of discussions had when the first stock/commodities markets emerged?....*
No. Stock markets emerged because there was a need to get enough capital together to build or do something bigger than one person could afford, like a ship or a railroad. Commodity markets emerged so that farmers who wanted to know the price of their crops before planting them could buy options to protect themselves against price drops, and, on the other side. |
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One has to wonder why the early adopters and larger players are cashing out? Why are they wanting out? Do they know something the rest of us don't? The real question is why would anyone with a lot of bitcoins still be in. |
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Just charge people 1 BTC to join, and 0.01BTC to post. Problem solved.
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There are essentially two core mining strategies; mine and liquidate or mine and hold....
There's no reason to mine if you're in a loss situation. Might as well just buy what you would spend on electricity investing in bitcoin. If you're mining and holding, you're speculating. You should view yourself as being in two separate businesses = producing and speculating - and should account for each of those separately. Each may be profitable or unprofitable, and should be continued or stopped on its own merits. |
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Okay, here's what I'm planning:
Where: San Antonio, Texas, USA
When: 2012 - March 16th, 17th, and 18th
This sounds like a great plan. Don't book the hotel too soon. Bitcoin may be over by then. If Bitcoin is still alive by the holiday season, go for it. |
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If you are too incompetent/idle to get any of the 'outside' of the coin right, how can people be sure the printing on the 'inside' - the private keys - has been handled correctly? There is no way of telling without destroying the coin so trust is a key issue. Frankly I'm not exactly brimming with confidence you've got each and every ~30-char private key right for thousands of coins when you can't even spell your own name on the damn things.
I have to agree. The Bitcoin world has too many players who 1) expect people to trust them, and 2) are clearly not very good at what they're doing. |
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Is Wagner still even doing this? I thought he was in hiding.
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