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It's saying that again today.
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I plan on booking about 80,000 feet of exhibit space at the Convention Center and two good size meeting rooms with the intention of holding alternating panels and discussion sessions. After some consideration, I think having the events on Saturday and Sunday only would be best. That's ambitious. Especially since Bitcoin may be over by then. |
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... I also believe they have huge amounts of both dollars and Bitcoins, although dumping Bitcoins over time. Could the 'bot just be liquidating a large Bitcoin position very slowly? There are known to be some early adopters with huge numbers of Bitcoins, and some of them must want to get out before the end. |
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By the way, does "never ever ever reaching $20" = "Bitcoin is effectively dead, but just doesn't know it yet?"
In the first Internet bubble, we ran Downside.com, which predicted, based on cash flow, which dot-coms would die, and when. We considered a company dead when the stock was down 90% from the peak. At that point, the stockholders are dead, even if the company lives on at some low level in zombie mode. On that basis, Bitcoin is dead when it breaks through $3. |
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Mt Gox Customer Service says:"[OUTAGE-12717] International Wire Deposits Delayed
Mt.Gox Support Sep-26 • Support / Outages
Due to an unknown cause, International wire deposits made to our HSBC account cannot be located within our database at the moment. This will delay all deposits made previously and and in the future until further notice. Issue is currently being investigated and an update will be followed in 24 hours."That was back on the 26th. It's the afternoon of the 29th in Tokyo now. Yet Mt. Gox hasn't updated their status message. Something is very wrong.
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Don't change anything. It's not worth the effort, and if you lose all the old posts or make people re-register, they will leave.
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What's really worrisome is that Mt. Gox has offered three different excuses for not paying since September 22. "Currently, Paxum withdrawals are delayed due to insufficient funds in our Paxum account", "Technocash has closed the Mt.Gox National Australia Bank account and the Mt.Gox Bank West account.", and "Please be aware that due to the sudden increase in AML requests, processing of submitted documentation has become slightly delayed." Mt. Gox may be in financial trouble. Also, Mt Gox's problems with Technocash are Mt Gox's problem, not the end users'. If Mt. Gox has money stuck in Technocash, that doesn't mean they get to delay payment to Mt Gox's customers. |
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There are international collection agencies. Cross-border debt collection is a routine operation today.
(Note, though, that many "international collection agencies" found on the web are just lead generation services. The usual legit deal for collection is that the agency takes 15% - 25% of the recovered amount, and no collection, no fee. Some of the slimier operators want a percentage of the original amount, which means they get paid first.)
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 Mining peaked around August 1, 2011.The mining graph has roughly the shape of the Bitcoin/USD price graph, but trails it by about two months. One interpretation of this is that miners hang on an average of two months after they start losing money, then quit. |
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Many of these issues are now predictable and the exchanges need to be more open about the probability of them occurring rather than allowing their users to believe that the exchanges are somehow exempt from the usual financial services laws and practises which apply in the jurisdictions in which they operate. They can't operate effectively without local bank accounts and those bank accounts are subject to local laws. Period. When the exchanges didn't offer local deposit and withdrawal facilities, people complained that getting funds to and from the exchanges was too expensive and took too long. Now they're complaining about the exchanges operating like other local financial services providers.
The exchanges themselves will almost certainly be faced with the choice of becoming licensed and regulated or ceasing operation in some locations in the future. As the primary purpose of a business is to make money, limiting their operations to only locations where they can operate totally unregulated might not be a viable business model for the long term. While many exchange users might prefer that the exchanges continue operating in legally grey areas, the future value of the exchanges to their owners is somewhat linked to their legitimacy. Right. Mt. Gox comes under Japanese law for online money transfer companies, the Financial Settlement Act of 2009. This allows non-bank companies to perform money transfer in Japan. Moneybookers, DoCoMo, and Western Union operate in Japan under this law. Money transfer firms have to register, be audited, and keep customer funds separate from their own. Mt. Gox has done none of that. |
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After all that's in the Bitcoin world over the last few months, why are people still so willing to do business with entities about whom they have no real life information?
That is my fundamental objection to the Bitcoin economy. Bitcoin enables irrevocable unidirectional money transfers between anonymous parties. The Bitcoin fan base thinks that's a good idea. This is the scammer's dream. |
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The bot functions by buying bitcoins at a low value and then selling them back for a minimum of 1 - 2 cents profit, and a max of no more than 30 cents. So what's the problem? So someone has a trading bot that tries to make small profits on short term variations. That's legitimate. Some people are grumbling that someone else is better at short term trading than they are. Tough. This bot shouldn't affect long term price trends much, since this bot apparently doesn't hold positions for long. Unless it's a net buyer or seller, its effect over a day should cancel out. Except, of course, that it's beating out inferior short term traders. |
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Only a gigantic troll or a complete idiot would say that a company complying with anti-money-laundering regulations "raises a red flag." Sure it's inconvenient, but you're placing the blame at the wrong doorstep. This is one of the problems that Bitcoin solves very well, which makes every use of an exchange to obtain USD or some other fiat currency terribly ironic.
I've been a customer with MtGox for over a year. More than a week ago they put my account under 'pending review'. I submitted the requested documents. I have followed up with emails. I am in their problem ticketing system and I am still unable to withdraw even one btc. I don't know if that "raises a red flag" but it sure is an inconvenience and poor customer service. I am suspicious of any money-handling business which unexpectedly shows difficulty in paying out funds. (This includes PayPal. But at least they have stated policies. I wonder if Mt. Gox is running short of cash when something like this happens.) |
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We need new suckers, and we need them NOW. There's one born every minute. Unfortunately for the Bitcoin enthusiasts, they're off doing something else. |
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wouldn't you expect the difficulty go down? It's no longer profitable to invest in new mining rigs, moreover, many people are scarcely making any profit with such low exchange rates.
Mining peaked at the end of July 2011.The difficulty is declining, trailing the decline in mining by about two weeks. The mining peak trailed the price peak by about 6-8 weeks. The mining curve overall looks like the price curve, but delayed 6-8 weeks. That's an indication of how long miners will keep working once mining becomes unprofitable. |
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Remember, we mine 210,000 (or ONE MILLION DOLLARS /evil) worth of coins every month, even at $5. Whether or not they are sold people feel that much richer on paper, and the market cap grows. Unless bulls step up and start coughing up a LOT of fresh new money each month we're all just trading for an ever shrinking amount of dollars per coin. Also, if you look at Bitcoin volume on Mt. Gox in currency, not Bitcoins, it's going down. That's striking, especially since there's so much 'bot trading moving the same money back and forth. (In this era of high-frequency trading in the real world, trading volume means far less than it used to.) |
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That power supply doesn't have a UL (Underwriters Laboratories) sticker. UL evaluates electrical devices for insurance companies to see if they have any potential to catch fire or an electrical shock hazard. To do that, they load them up to 100% of their rated load, put them in a chamber heated to their upper temperature limit, and run them for a day or so. They also test safety issues, like shutdown or fuse blowing in the event of a short circuit. On each UL sticker, which must have a hologram UL mark, there is a certification number. UL has an online database where those can be looked up. Phony UL stickers are common, but they rarely have a UL hologram and a number that matches the product with that number in the database. Power supply "reviews" that don't include a bench test under load are meaningless. The people who do serious power supply testing report that UL-rated power supplies don't fail under load. UL doesn't test electrical noise, voltage regulation precision, or fan noise, because those won't cause a safety hazard. Anything that can't pass a UL test is junk. |
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btw the lower trendline meets with the longterm trend..
Drawing lines connecting peaks or valleys for Bitcoin is pointless. Bitcoin's big excursions are mostly due to extraneous factors like thefts, rip-offs, or bugs in Mt. Gox. This is a thinly traded market, and anybody with some cash can move it around for a day or two before they run out of money and the market reverts to the long-term downward trend. |
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OK, found "contract". The "contract" contains a dead link to "http://www.blockminers.com/bylaws"Since the parties to the contract are not defined: <officers/> <offices>In the Cloud</offices>there is no contract. This matters, because this is an offer to deliver something at a future time. The buyer needs to know where to send the debt collectors. |
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If you like log charts, here's a realistic one.  The brown line is a 30-day trailing moving average.On a log scale, not only is Bitcoin in a screaming dive, the dive is accelerating. On a linear graph, the 30-day moving average has been a straight line since the bubble popped in June. That weirdo green line graph, extrapolating a straight line through the run-up and decline phases of a speculative bubble, is just silly. |
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