By the logic of some of the idiotic maximalist comments in this thread, once gold nuggets were dug out of the ground there was no further need for diversification - not minted coins, not account based trading, not paper notes and not lightweight metals. Popular music need not have bothered itself further after the Beatles. The sovereign bond didn't need to be hedged by equities, commodities nor currencies, Fine Art investments were all "scams" after Da Vinci.
Don't you nuttheads get markets or what ? The whole point of them is that they're not tyrannies. There is diversity to address everything from taste to hedging requirements to technical deficiencies and vertical sectors.
None of your statements above^^^ lend any support whatsoever to your assertion belowVVV. Without diversification in the crypto-asset market bitcoin would still be in 3 digits.
Care to explain your 'conclusion'? |
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First Vegeta is almost top 100. CreepyOstritchSoon.png |
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I expect a denial of service of bitcointalk.org soon.
When the site bogs down, it is merely Eternal September. A mere sign that retail FOMO has started. |
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One Question
when 5-digits
When 12344? (or was it 12688 or smth?) 12288$ (@that time 10K €....) Yeah time to update those lists, pffffffff where are they again, deep surge, or does anyone got them close  And why never put in something yourself? Well, I've gotta say that you're a good sport for running these games. But entering means devoting thought to an arbitrary price level that I would not otherwise care about. Without meaning any offense, given the +ev, I have better things to do with my time. Or do I need to make a Bcash game (F*** only one player, you would always win)  Only player? Naaah. Those that jump through hoops for a small chance at free money probably don't care about the underlying details. |
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I'm game. Anyone have an invite code? |
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If you throw in a century of economic growth then 9 digits could be plausible as well as follows:
Suppose Bitcoin absorbs 10% of M2 and the M2 growth rate of roughly 4% persists for a century.
That would imply 1.04^100 = 50.5x growth over 100 years.
That would bring the 10% estimate from 3m per Bitcoin to 151.5m per Bitcoin 100 years from now. These kind of valuations are highly flawed. If bitcoin ever absorbed even a fraction of "M2" growth it would be largely as a pure unit of account, not a store of value. In other words you'd (by definition of M2) be talking about BTC denominated bank deposit accounts and money market funds and all kinds of other fractional reserve derivatives. Use of bitcoin as a unit of account is something hodlers tend to ignore. If bitcoin ever became a currency we would not be exchanging actual bitcoins, but bitcoin denominated credit just as we use arbitrary units of credit today. So you can't just divide random incumbent money supply figures by 21 million to get a price for a future BTC. Since it's limited in supply it's an asset and will always be an asset. If you denominate, say, UK GDP in bitcoin then it's around 0.3 Trillion BTC. The GDP can be 0.3 Trillion BTC even though there are not that many bitcoins in existence. Maybe flawed, but only partially. If bonds are issued, then this is not a unit of account, but an actual asset that contributes to the overall size of assets, is it not? Bond market in US is 82tril, global-above 100 tril. I can redeem a bond and get currency/cash. Analogy: water in the lake is still a part of water present on planet earth. In theory it works like that but in practice it doesn't. Even in the Bretton Woods system there was a "notional" convertibility to gold. But there was still far more currency in circulation than there was gold in existence. The value of gold was simply pegged to a multiple of the dollar ($30 I think). Lets say you had 1 bitcoin and you issued a bitcoin backed bond. You now have 2 effective bitcoins in circulation - the real one and the bond. The original doesn't cease to exist just because it's backing a bond. Similarly, crypto exchanges inflate the bitcoin money supply. We deposit our bitcoin on exchanges and they create these "synthetic" bitcoins for us to trade. Meanwhile the deposited BTC are still in circulation on the blockchain. People tend to think that they're "locked away" and out of circulation, but they're not. The new synthetic ones are added to the supply. The exchange can do what they want with the deposits - it just depends on the contractural terms. So the "21 million" limit is not really a limit. The bitcoin supply can be expanded in an unlimited way and will be simply through its use as a pure unit of account, same as any other asset. ...which -- of course -- is why nobody already conversant with the topic will accept your 'paper Bitcoin'. |
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If you throw in a century of economic growth then 9 digits could be plausible as well as follows:
Suppose Bitcoin absorbs 10% of M2 and the M2 growth rate of roughly 4% persists for a century.
That would imply 1.04^100 = 50.5x growth over 100 years.
That would bring the 10% estimate from 3m per Bitcoin to 151.5m per Bitcoin 100 years from now. These kind of valuations are highly flawed. If bitcoin ever absorbed even a fraction of "M2" growth it would be largely as a pure unit of account, not a store of value. In other words you'd (by definition of M2) be talking about BTC denominated bank deposit accounts and money market funds and all kinds of other fractional reserve derivatives. Use of bitcoin as a unit of account is something hodlers tend to ignore. If bitcoin ever became a currency we would not be exchanging actual bitcoins, but bitcoin denominated credit just as we use arbitrary units of credit today. So you can't just divide random incumbent money supply figures by 21 million to get a price for a future BTC. Since it's limited in supply it's an asset and will always be an asset. If you denominate, say, UK GDP in bitcoin then it's around 0.3 Trillion BTC. The GDP can be 0.3 Trillion BTC even though there are not that many bitcoins in existence. Oy vey - where to start? Obviously, if UK GDP were to be valued in Bitcoin, then Bitcoin would rise in price in order to be able to accommodate UK money supply in the allotted number of Bitcoin units. As an aside - you might satisfy yourself with Bitcoin denominated credits. I think most here already understand the folly of such acceptance. |
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One Question
when 5-digits
When 12344? (or was it 12688 or smth?) |
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I think the waves will continue until maybe November of December... then is will break UP.  Or well, will see... So Phil I need an update, clarify for me wtf is happening because this latest move is quite a surprise to me. We broke down from your chart before this 8100 now but I'd appreciate an update on a simple theme like this because I think the biggest moves come from the simple takes that catch the majority of the market trend. Is 8000 a good call for this price move to rest now Sadly my charts are out of whack as the site went down, I'll transfer or redraw them I guess but still I'm off any regular perspective We’re up nearly 60% in the last 30 days Quiet storm, what happened? I still dont know  Bitcoin happened. It's ... A Thing. |
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Ah, 8000 my old sausage, how are you doing? It's been a long time. Watch $8600. If you follow PnF the point and figure charts say we could go parabolic to $50K+ if we get a weekly close above $8600 on Bitstamp.
Interesting. I'm watching 8500 simply as the last rally and resistance point from the 6000 level. I need to go back and study 2013 Good year. I remember it fondly. |
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Upon further ponderation, I've just increased my ladder interval by 2x.
Interesting possible scenario to ponder:
If we can maintain this rally a bit further, it should engender retail FOMO. (If)
Retail FOMO is likely to take us to well over previous ATH.
Retail FOMO peters out in a blow off top. Well before halvening time.
Blow off top drops from ... oh ... $100K to $30K. Maybe.
Then halvening kicks in. Resulting in a double-pump that rhymes with 2013's $266...$1024 miracle.
Well, a girl can dream, can't she?
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So, yeah, what are the odds of $20k in 45 days?
Right now? Not good. 18 months from now, a blowoff top that takes us from $50K to $150K in 45 days? Maybe 50-50. DealWithItShades.png |
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Montroll did not disclose what happened to users of BitFunder and WeExchange, or investors in Ukyo.Loan. Instead, he continued to promote and sell Ukyo.Loan to customers and, on at least one occasion, falsely represented to customers that BitFunder was commercially successful. As a result of his omissions and misrepresentations, the defendant raised approximately 978 bitcoins through Ukyo.Loan after his discovery of the Hackers’ actions. Summarizing the quote from your article. 'Montroll lied, defrauded, and stole.' |
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Back to the drawing board. Needs moar random circles and lines. |
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Are you still embroiled in debates with friends and internet creeps or have you let it slide?
Yes. But rather than friends or internet creeps, I consider them valued colleagues. And rather than crypto in nature, more so the specific attributes of specific chains. Over on the WO. ::zing!:: But to your point, debate? No. I stopped arguing with the ignorant years ago. I state my counterpoint and my visions for the horizon one time, and let the rest slide. Genuine questions from them will yield genuine answers. If pressed, I may inform them that I still own way more Bitcoin than I have ever sold. This will either impress them with my earnestness, or dismay them with what they perceive as my irrationality. I don't much care which. eta: Though if the topic of conversation turns to money, I'm sure to plant a seed. As well as implore anyone I know to have savings to at least spend 20 or so hours studying Bitcoin before dismissing it. |
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Bear hunt?
That hadn't occurred to me. I was expecting to smack into an elk and die trundling up there. I might change my plans now. You'd better change them. Anne Elk is a great chum of mine (and a great theoretician), and I'll do the smacking tyvm. And your own theorizing, which is to say, the theory which is yours... |
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I'm thinking about selling my BCH as I need to take out some money.
It's not gonna bounce back right?
BCH seems to be catching a belated wave. Up about twice as much as BTC on the day, percentage-wise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. YMMV. Not to be used for the other purpose. Keep chain away from testicles. |
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Let's talk about your amygdala.
Oh dude I have been working on an elevator pitch for that shit. Something that serves most peoples self-interest and is not excessively longwinded or technical. Pretty sure I got something mostly workable. Standing by for mind blowage... |
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In tangentially related news, Tim and his son Adam were interviewed the other day by the Abra CEO dude. I found it worth the time at 2x speed. |
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