Can we agree on heifer-ish? or maybe "may contain traces of Bovine" or Bovine-ish |
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The 2h graphic and the 1w graphic are almost identically fractal. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitfinex/btcusdIf the fractal repeats itself, as fractals use to do, we would go to 10-20k region easily. In the meantime, just breath (and burn ALL the bears) Can you post a screenshot of this? I'm having a hard time seeing (tho not disagreeing) with 20k. Try squinting  (ps I love a fractal as much as the next guy) and the next guy and the next guy and the next guy |
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are we rich yet??   Who cares about "we"  hint = not me |
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^^
Well, maybe Kimdotcom has a point. If Greece leaves the Eurozone (note: It's complex, because nobody had the foresight to predict a country exit) what do you think will happen to the USD/EUR? Safe havens were always PM and (recently) BTC and cryptocurrencies. AFAIC the prediction of what will actually happen, take my word for it: NOTHING! Everything will be as it was yesterday and the day before. Another (short) time period will be assigned to the Greeks in order to deal with their debt, the debt will grow larger and ELA will keep covering the banks, IMF will pull another rabbit off the hat and everything will go as planned.
TBH: I don't think that ANY SINGLE OFFICIAL has the balls to take such a decision, solely, or collectively. Personally, I want to be proved wrong. But I won't.
Safe havens in past have been US t bonds and a few others, the swissy, the yen, PM's (though PM's got battered in 08) BTC has never been a safe haven. The entire reason Greece has not already been allowed to default, and infact half of the Eurozone, is exactly because it is a political decision to keep the zone together. That could change, personally I think the tptb have been heavily invested in keeping the union together... but yes it could change, the northern countries are rather unhappy with the status quo. Personally I think the Eurozone as we know it is destined to fail (since its inception), at least in its current guise, it is more a matter of when, than if...that does not mean the time is now... but.... we will see (I mean we will see if Grexit is the start of it, I do not see the Eurozone imploding right now) Like I said it will come down to which is stonger, the political will, or the financial reality. |
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Possability of contagion and capital flight to perceived safety.
I do not see a Grexit having a direct effect, i.e Greeks buying BTC en masse.
However I do think that each case of capital control that is imposed, or even suggested, and each case of bail in's or potential bail ins that occurs, it does have an effect on the use case for Bitcoin for the rest of the world.
Also, in the event of an actual Grexit , it would send a shock wave around the entire globe, effecting most/all markets, though it may be short lived, it would most likely happen, and there would be a knock on effect, and part of that effect could mean flight to perceived safety on a global level, and in this case that could actually mean funds moving out of Bitcoin. Problem comes if the markets start to wobble, there are people covering positions, getting margin calls, and moving to safety, and often in these situations, people do not sell what they have.... they sell what they can which means that the illiquid markets are stuffed, liquid markets are not so.
I would not discount the effect of a Grexit.
I do not think it would be good for most.
I do not see BTC being used as a safe harbour, maybe gold, bonds, yen, swissy... I could see some people that are already BTC investors could give it a kick up, perhaphs, but I would not count on it.
As far as BTC goes I think it would be more to do with how much exposure BTC investors have to other markets, that they could have to scramble to cover, in reality I do not think it would be too much of a problem.
If a grexit does occur and capital controls are put into place, then after the dust starts to settle, I can imagine the argument for the use case for BTC to have strengthened on a global scale... but this is not in any particular way useful for the people of Greece now... and I do not see them using BTC en masse to evade capital controls.. they are just not set up for it imo, barring a few tech savvy Greeks.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11680077/Bank-of-Greece-issues-grave-warning-of-Grexit-as-British-government-prepares-for-fallout-live.html( four months are almost up lets see if we get another last minute reprieve, or a giant kick into the collective balls....) <putsontinfoilhat> Maybe they are going to use the next four months (or do I mean days?) to prepare for a soft grexit, rather than dealing with a hard grexit sooner. Or maybe they are just trying to figure out how to phrase the word "default" so it sounds more like "perpetual bond"
<leavestinfoilhatonbecausesinceputtinghatonhavebecomeconvincedthattheNSAarereadi ngmythoughts>
Forgive my ignorance but what does Greece have to do with the price of BTC?
Directly... at this point in time.... very little. Indirectly... a lot. I am not sat here with my cock in hand hoping for a financial crash in hopes of escaping capital outflows benefiting BTC, because well at this point in time I do not see it happening. However, there is an increasing possibility no matter how the current situation pans out, that we may see capital controls put in place (not just in greece either) due to the situation in Greece. there is a perfect storm scenario where the Greece leaves the union, and the ECB declare they will not provide temporary liquidity to cover the capital flight from greece. In fact there is the scenario where even if it does not go that far, the billions of euros a week that are currently leaving the greek banking system, continues and accelerates, even without a grexit. Basically capital controls could be put in place, and directly at this point in time, the effect for BTC will be very little.. but, it will be yet another exhibition of capital controls, and even if the greeks are not thinking about it, others will be.So if the Swiss unpeg was the first canary in the mine.... perhaps Greece is our second canary.. Plus also BTC does not operate in a vacuum anymore than Greece or Europe does... as I said earlier if Greece leaves it is relevant to most, and certainly to anything to do with the economy/investments etc. I have posted on here in the past about my view of how BTC may be impacted by a (medium sized) financial crisis. We are going to find out if the political will is stronger than the financial reality.If this does go down.. There will be shockwaves. (remember people do not sell what they have.... they sell what they can) |
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the whole USD swap offer market on bfx is is sitting at 200 k $.   we are in red supergiant stage. I repeat: "I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." - Robert Metcalfe (Inventor of Ethernet), 1995 Could you please elaborate more about that quote, Fatman ? ? ? ? ... it didn't. it didn't what , I want to understand it man It is pretty straight forward ..... Do you know who Robert Metcalfe is? if not look him up... quite the guy....and quite the guy that got this particular prediction , spectacularly wrong... and to think many , myself included knew that his prediction was totally totally off. The internet is still here right? Case solved. Moriarty you can go home, you are not needed here. (ps, if anyone should have not got this prediction so wrong.... you could argue it was Metcalfe... but nevertheless he was wrong... I wonder what clouded his vision?) |
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I do not see a Grexit having a direct effect, i.e Greeks buying BTC en masse.
However I do think that each case of capital control that is imposed, or even suggested, and each case of bail in's or potential bail ins that occurs, it does have an effect on the use case for Bitcoin for the rest of the world.
Also, in the event of an actual Grexit , it would send a shock wave around the entire globe, effecting most/all markets, though it may be short lived, it would most likely happen, and there would be a knock on effect, and part of that effect could mean flight to perceived safety on a global level, and in this case that could actually mean funds moving out of Bitcoin. Problem comes if the markets start to wobble, there are people covering positions, getting margin calls, and moving to safety, and often in these situations, people do not sell what they have.... they sell what they can which means that the illiquid markets are stuffed, liquid markets are not so.
I would not discount the effect of a Grexit.
I do not think it would be good for most.
I do not see BTC being used as a safe harbour, maybe gold, bonds, yen, swissy... I could see some people that are already BTC investors could give it a kick up, perhaphs, but I would not count on it.
As far as BTC goes I think it would be more to do with how much exposure BTC investors have to other markets, that they could have to scramble to cover, in reality I do not think it would be too much of a problem.
If a grexit does occur and capital controls are put into place, then after the dust starts to settle, I can imagine the argument for the use case for BTC to have strengthened on a global scale... but this is not in any particular way useful for the people of Greece now... and I do not see them using BTC en masse to evade capital controls.. they are just not set up for it imo, barring a few tech savvy Greeks.
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61.8 %
I don't get it, empowering. 61.8 % of what? Tell me! (I am a bit drunk, not at home and too lazy to write this anywhere alse atm, sorry for using the wall as my notepad ha ha) I am alright jack |
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61.8 %
I don't get it, empowering. 61.8 % of what? Tell me! Sure .... when I traced the fibonacci retracement levels of the move from 239.10 to 259.10, I saw the 61.8% retracement level at $246.74 and I thought.... yeah, we are most likely to be headed back to there (61.8%) at least ..... 61.8% level is quite a common retracement level, and upon hitting it we often see something occur, a decision, and if it is not going to retrace the move completely, and instead is headed on up, it is a common spot for a bounce, and if it is going to continue to retrace, this is a spot I keep an eye on, if we have got this far. Sometimes, if the move is quick and violent enough, or moving through a new wave, or reacting to other data, it can move violently through retracements. Though of the retracement levels, I find 38.2% and mainly 61.8% to find the most correlations to the market in real time. So, I posted 61.8% really as an observation, when we were at approx $246.6, just as a note mainly to myself to see if we bounced off this level........ or not. (and to remind myself, that my hunch was right that we would see 246.6 at least again, which it was) (I am a bit drunk, not at home and too lazy to write this anywhere alse atm, sorry for using the wall as my notepad ha ha) Now lets see if we get the bounce (ps and nibbled of course just a little add on.. eyeballing) |
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11680077/Bank-of-Greece-issues-grave-warning-of-Grexit-as-British-government-prepares-for-fallout-live.html( four months are almost up lets see if we get another last minute reprieve, or a giant kick into the collective balls....) <putsontinfoilhat> Maybe they are going to use the next four months (or do I mean days?) to prepare for a soft grexit, rather than dealing with a hard grexit sooner. Or maybe they are just trying to figure out how to phrase the word "default" so it sounds more like "perpetual bond"
<leavestinfoilhatonbecausesinceputtinghatonhavebecomeconvincedthattheNSAarereadi ngmythoughts>
Forgive my ignorance but what does Greece have to do with the price of BTC?
Directly... at this point in time.... very little. Indirectly... a lot. I am not sat here with my cock in hand hoping for a financial crash in hopes of escaping capital outflows benefiting BTC, because well at this point in time I do not see it happening. However, there is an increasing possibility no matter how the current situation pans out, that we may see capital controls put in place (not just in greece either) due to the situation in Greece. there is a perfect storm scenario where the Greece leaves the union, and the ECB declare they will not provide temporary liquidity to cover the capital flight from greece. In fact there is the scenario where even if it does not go that far, the billions of euros a week that are currently leaving the greek banking system, continues and accelerates, even without a grexit. Basically capital controls could be put in place, and directly at this point in time, the effect for BTC will be very little.. but, it will be yet another exhibition of capital controls, and even if the greeks are not thinking about it, others will be.So if the Swiss unpeg was the first canary in the mine.... perhaps Greece is our second canary.. Plus also BTC does not operate in a vacuum anymore than Greece or Europe does... as I said earlier if Greece leaves it is relevant to most, and certainly to anything to do with the economy/investments etc. I have posted on here in the past about my view of how BTC may be impacted by a (medium sized) financial crisis.
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Latest photo from Gemini's Insta.  Where is Fatman ? With Bobin? (....or should that be with Fobin?)   HOLY BITCOINS FATMAN  |
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It may well be possible that the greece public will adapt BTC as an unofficial currency for everyday use.
If a large group adopts bitcoin now, at the current price or at a higher price, they would be sharing their wealth with the early adopters in proportion. For example, if Greece adopted bitcoin, and 9 million BTC were circulating there with a value equivalent to 10'000 USD/BTC, then Satoshi's 1 million BTC would allow him to buy 10 billion USD worth of Greek property. Greece then would become 10 billion USD poorer. That is why no sane government should allow privately issued money: the people who issue it take wealth from those who use it. When the government issues more money, the government is taking wealth from its citizens, so it is just another tax. It may be a stupid kind of tax, but people tolerate it because the government is supposed to give that wealth back as public services. When the banks issue more money through fractional reserve lending, they are taking that wealth for themselves. Citizens should not tolerate that, but most do not understand what is going on. I have only a foggy notion myself... Good thing there is no such thing as a sane government |
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Adopting BTC as national currency would be suicide for Greece. Their problem is not that the Euro inflation is too high, but it is too low. Bitcoin is deflationary in the long term, so their debts would explode, when BTC price rises.
That would be contrary to the aforementioned Gresham's Law. I'd indulge you to read it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham%27s_lawThe undervalued currency would (in this case) be the EUR. That means the debt in EUR will be lowered as the BTC would go up and finally eliminated when BTC reaches a high rate. Such an experiment is -of course- non applicable on a country under a sovereign coalition, so we can only assume here (both me and you) what we *think* it will happen. You could also be right and me just typing nonsense here.  Thanks for the link, quite interesting lecture. My conclusion is that we talked about two different things: Gresham's Law is driven by the public, while the official legal tender is issued by more or less state-controlled institutions. It may well be possible that the greece public will adapt BTC as an unofficial currency for everyday use. Yanis Varoufakis has an opinion regarding Bitcoin though. The following article is more than 2 years old and I am sure it has already been posted here. But maybe someone finds it interesting: http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2013/04/22/bitcoin-and-the-dangerous-fantasy-of-apolitical-money/Yanis Varou-fuck-this. |
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My mum is more likely to adopt a monkey than Greece are to adopt BTC.
Increased usage I can imagine.... government official adoption so to speak.... is surely not even on the cards, no one really thinks it is ...right?
Whilst I'm a massive bull & backer of bitcoin & it's future success there is no way a country can adopt bitcoin as its national currency right now. Don't get me wrong it'd be great for bitcoins price & all of us financially but it's not ready to be a national currency. It's pointless discussing any way because Greece aren't going to have it as their currency. that is my point.... |
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no one really thinks it is ...right?
EJECT THIS MAN FROM THIS PLACEIt's guaranteed that right now presidents, kings and prime ministers are lining up outside the trailers of spotty and hostile early miners attempting to persuade them to sell to them so they can save their national economies. Get with the muthafuckin' plan. ......ah my bad. |
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