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Interesting development in the bitstamp order book.
If anyone remembers I mentioned a few weeks ago about how much buying support there was around the 3k level, but, also at the same time how the sell orders were not following the price down (IIRC 2000 btc sold bring the price down 4%, whereas 2000 bought price up around 20%).
I've continued to keep an eye on the order book during this last increase and at the 3700 then 3900 levels buy orders and sell orders were balanced (IIRC about 2500 sold or 2500 bought would move the price 15% either way). Meaning that despite the recent increase in price the buy orders were not following the price up, meaning lack of confidence in the bounce.
Well, right now order book is showing if 2000 coins are sold the price will drop 12%, but, if 2000 coins are bought the price will rise 21%. I can only interpret this as buyers now regaining confidence and beginning to follow the price up rather then waiting for a dip to the lows or new lows. In my mind this is confirmation that the low is now in.
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jbreher and the bcash SV shitcoin crew.  We are followings God's (satoshis, lol) vision hahaha. |
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Don't like LN? You are free to opt-out without this stopping you from using Bitcoin directly. You are also free to develop another second layer on top of Bitcoin and only you and your counterparty (ies) need to adopt it for it to work.
hold on slow down a minute there. Don't let facts get in the way of a good irrational scare campaign. |
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Yeh lets abandon the Bitcoin Network and jump on xrp version 2 lightning network (LN) instead.
I beg your pardon ? Lightning IS Bitcoin. Right and Elephant IS a Car Bitcoin network is bitcoin network Lighting network is lightning network claiming otherwise is a dishonest shill. A Bitcoiner supports Bitcoin network with mining or mining shares. A shitcoiner supports a shitcoin node whatever his preferred flavor my be, XRP node, LN node, JPM node or what not crap node (cheap crap computer) LN (in)directly supports JPMCoin, XRP..... with atomic swap any crap is instantly interchangeable Crappy worthless nodes Version 1, XRP erks me like..., no difference with version 3, LN or version 4, JPM Are you crazy? Is that your problem? |
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For anyone interested in a bitcoin and lightning node I can recommend this one. Doesn't take long to setup and fairly cheap. I already had a hdd and SD card so that saved me some money, and you don't really need the LCD screen either. https://github.com/rootzoll/raspiblitzAlso, looks like a mini H&S on the chart, target to 3700 - 3750 if it pans out. |
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How about chocolate coins with the gold foil.
People say you can't hold bitcoin, well I won't be holding them, I'll be eating the damn things in front of them.
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I don’t know that you could port Bitcoin onto Grin. So it is a threat. But their monetary policy is fuxxed. Big mistake having an endless emissions. Same trap Monero fell into. So that significantly reduces the threat. MW can be implemented on a second layer or as a sidechain with BTC I believe. So, how many grins will ever be made? Currently set to 50 per 60 seconds (it was going to be 60/m, but I think they finalised at 50/m). That is not designed to change. So it's infinite. Well, if it's infinite it won't be worth anything. That's Economics 101. That would be my understanding too, which has killed a lot interest that I initially had for it. However, how many other coins are like this? and how many of those have gone from low value to a high value. Monero? But isn't their supply cut down to only 0.3 every block at some point? Even with open ended supply it still seems that a lot of money can be made in the medium-term even if long-term it is destined for disaster. 50 every minute forever seems like a awful lot though. |
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Thanks Mic, I'm going 3750
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Don't forget JorgeStolfi. An academic don't you know hahahaha.
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"Hedge fund managers posses unique insight, into emerging client sentiment and into capital flows that are not yet printed. As a manager of cryptocurrencies with multiple digital asset offerings, we consider orderbook information a key component of our strategies. Firsthand observations of these cryptocurrency orders over time supports our conclusion that Bitcoin's December 2018 price of $3150 is the ultimate low." Somebody was observing walls and not debating global warming and they noticed the bottom.  Absolutely, I have mentioned this previously https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg48779651#msg48779651, and I also believe that low 3000 mark is very much the bottom or close to it. The bitstamp order book is the big tell. |
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So paper wallets (encrypted I assume) are the only thing that you consider to be absolutely safe? also how do you create them? live cd on normal net connected pc (disconnected when creating paper wallet), some kind of specialist device, or air-gapped computer that has never seen the internet?
I use an old computer with no wifi adapter, no ethernet cable, and a printer that has never been connected to an internet-capable computer. Print spoolers can be hacked. For ultimate security, keep multiple encrypted copies offsite in multiple locations. Ok, one more question. Have you got things setup in a way that if something were to happen to you your family could access the coins? This is a big concern of mine. |
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Proof of keys? I control my own keys thank you.
Trusted third parties? Isn't that an oxymoron?
I haven't had any coins on an exchange since MtGox. Luckily that mistake only cost me 50BTC. Never again.
Closest thing I have to a trusted third party is my Trezor which I somehow got talked into using against my better judgment. Luckily I only have 5BTC on it. I stopped using it last year after having it for less than half a year.
Obviously cold ("paper" wallet) storage is much more secure. Only I have control over the keys and they're never exposed to the internet except when I sweep a wallet into Mycelium to transfer coins and that's only small amounts for short periods of time.
This is why it's good to spread your stash between dozens or hundreds of small wallets. My biggest single wallet has a little over 30 coins in it (from pulling out what I had at Cavirtex after being Goxed) but I'm almost scared to sweep it to split it into smaller wallets because that would entail risking that many coins at once by exposing them to the internet.
I suppose I should empty my Trezor on Genesis Block Day as a way to assert ownership of my keys instead of trusting Trezor. Then again why wait until Jan. 3?
So paper wallets (encrypted I assume) are the only thing that you consider to be absolutely safe? also how do you create them? live cd on normal net connected pc (disconnected when creating paper wallet), some kind of specialist device, or air-gapped computer that has never seen the internet? Does anyone else here think ledgers or trezors are insecure? would choosing your own seed for them, rather then random one provided on setup of device, help you feel secure with it? I used to use paper wallets but now using a hardware wallet, wondering if maybe I shouldn't. |
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It sure looks the same to me Jay.  Of course, might look the same, in terms of the history, and that is fine, yet my question remains how much value you going to place in the future playing out the same way? And, are you going to put your money on that? Description is one thing, prediction is another thing, so my main point remains that there is danger to put too much weight on predictive value and even making dumb-ass assertion that you know how the future is going to play out, even if there are high odds of such. Maybe you will assign 80% to such occurrence, and maybe someone else like me, might assign 45% to such occurrence. In the end, I am not going to stop criticizing folks who make proclamations that seem to be assigning (or even implying such) too high probabilities to such scenarios, even if such scenarios actually play out or even if I also believe that such scenarios are the most likely of outcomes. Here's the thing, in 2015 was there a global asset value crash? because that is what 2019 is looking like, so btc could do anything next year. No way I'd put money on a repeat for this reason. Maybe it will be a safe haven, and price will rise substantially, maybe price will go down as people need fiat to fund loss of job and equity from other assets. Either way, financially, shit is going to be very interesting next year. A contact of mine who works in finance just asked me how he could buy 30,000 BTC on behalf of one of his clients
So uh anyone want to do an OTC give me a PM. Introduction only, DYOR yadda yadda
I told him to go speak to Cumberland as well.
Maybe this is a safe haven play and we can expect more. They can't steal your btc but can steal from your bank account. |
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Someone on here said a few hours ago that shorts had closed and reopened higher iiuc. Is that right? How can we track that?
Unsure about the shorts, but Bitstamp's sell order book seems to have done this, or alternatively has not been added too. At $3200 order book was saying 2800 hundred coins bought to reach $4400 (+35%) it is now saying 1600 coins bought to reach $5185 (+28%). Unfortunately, it is currently showing 1600 coins sold will take the price down to $3300 (-19%), where as when price was $3200 it said 2800 coins sold would bring it down only 4% |
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Guys, another thing to look at regarding fundamentals are the new USD stable coins. These are considered "honest" and I think they will help show how the inflows of actual money into the market is going. This will be represented by their market cap, and it is currently looking very nice.
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Ironically it’s the longs that are evaporating. Ratio massively skewed to short side. More rocket fuel for squeezes. Very crowded trade.
yes those shorts are still massively high, even after this pump, I was surprised at this. https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSDSHORTS/ |
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Well, very nice to see this rally. However, even if this is a suckers rally, that low 3000 area looks fucking solid. I've stated on here before that Bitstamp's order book is a strong indicator telling us where the bottom is. Why I think this, is because Bitstamp is what seems to be an honest market and has no margin or shorting. When the price was at 3200 you needed about 2800 btc to be sold to take the price down to the 3000 level, but, if 2800 btc were bought the price would go to 4400.
At the 6000 level the order book was actually balanced between the buys and sells, hence it could break down with relative ease, in comparison to the 3000 level. There is massive buy support at the 3000 level and very little selling support. It's simple, not only is 3000 considered a good level to buy, we also get twice as many btc for the same amount of fiat compared to the 6000 level. And the sellers obviously don't want to sell at that level because what's the point, they have already lost over 80% from the highs, might as well just leave it to be lost, or hope that btc repeats it's historical patterns and booms again in a few years.
Nice; I buy most of your theory, and think your post deserves merit and a hat, neither of which are in my remit... Glad I'm not alone in my thoughts. I need a pic before a hat though, and merit does seem to be an uncommon commodity. Only problem with the orders at the moment though, is that the buy orders aren't really chasing the price, but, the sell orders are not following the price down either. What's more, looking at this price increase, not many new sell orders are being added either. So I really do think the bulls have it at these levels. I'd say that at worst we will now be repeating a 2015 sideways to slightly up market. |
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Well, very nice to see this rally. However, even if this is a suckers rally, that low 3000 area looks fucking solid. I've stated on here before that Bitstamp's order book is a strong indicator telling us where the bottom is. Why I think this, is because Bitstamp is what seems to be an honest market and has no margin or shorting. When the price was at 3200 you needed about 2800 btc to be sold to take the price down to the 3000 level, but, if 2800 btc were bought the price would go to 4400.
At the 6000 level the order book was actually balanced between the buys and sells, hence it could break down with relative ease, in comparison to the 3000 level. There is massive buy support at the 3000 level and very little selling support. It's simple, not only is 3000 considered a good level to buy, we also get twice as many btc for the same amount of fiat compared to the 6000 level. And the sellers obviously don't want to sell at that level because what's the point, they have already lost over 80% from the highs, might as well just leave it to be lost, or hope that btc repeats it's historical patterns and booms again in a few years.
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This is my best case scenario. Purple line is 200 MA Weekly. Under this scenario we break $6k in early 2020, maybe late 2019.  New ATH in early 2021 is probably more than what many people would ask. Right now some people must be swearing that they are going to get out and never come back once they hit the price they bought in.  This happens to most people (happened to me in 2014, I know how it feels) especially if this is their first time investing in a high risk/volatile asset like bitcoin. Exactly what I said to myself in 2014 after being over 50% in the red. All of a sudden we hit $19,xxx & I’m literally over 60 times my total investment........then greed took over & I sold fucking nothing. It won’t happen during the next epic bull run, I can promise you that I bought in after the cyprus bubble, I said to myself back then I'd cash some in at 40k. Then the Dec bubble happened that same year. After that popped, I said to myself "next bubble I will sell some then buy in again. Problem is I was calling a bubble at 1800 then 2800 the 5000 and so on, basically I can't tell the top of a bubble for shit, so I'll keep waiting for 40k. Moral of story, wait till your target is hit, because picking the top of a bubble ain't easy, and if you sell too early it's likely you'll panic buy back in. This is my long-term stash by the way, I do have other amounts that I buy sell more frequently and also for shit coins. |
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