I see a small developement about peoples interest in bitcoin in my area.
There are actually some people here right now who are asking me sometimes how that whold bitcoin thing works. Not much, maybe three or four.
A few months ago, nobody around me seemed to have any interest. But because of the recent precence of bitcoin in the media, I get the impression that has changed a little.

I have noticed that the older people get, the harder it is for them to change their mind.
And parents naturally want to protect their children
So once parents have the idea of a danger for their children in their heads, it will become very difficult to show them a different image of bitcoin.
You could try to accept their point of view, and hope that they will accept your positive assessment of bitcoin as well, although they don't need to share it.

The low fees are an effect of the mempool that is not overflowing with transactions at the moment.
The spam waves we had during the past months seem to have ebbed away.
Why that is the case I have no clue.
Maybe they just ran out of money because of the price decrease we have seen last week?

Actually at the moment I am wondering on what has changed.
Are there any new developements during the past two days that I am not aware of?
Or is the recent increase just a consequence because we had no bad news, and bitcoin follows the upwards trend it had before the rumors?

I don't see bitcoin being really used in the future.
It will be an investment, even more than it already is today.
To be used again, it would be necessary that bitcoin price does not increase anymore.
But in 2022 we will already have seen the next halving. And bitcoin increases before a halving.

Hold or buy, but don't sell unless it is absolutely necessary.
We have a little more clarity regarding China, that has calmed the market down
And the big buy wave before the fork has not started yet. But I assume we will se one because people will remember the BCH chain split.

I do not see how banning exchanges will affect the miners.
They have the options to bring their bitcoins to an exchange in Japan or anywhere else in the world.
For the miners the main consequence is the decreased price of the bitcoin, everything else is not relevant to them.

That is something I am counting on as well.
The hard fork situation is still lying ahead of us. Somehow it seems people have forgotton about this. Most pools are still flagging SegWit2x support.
So I guess there is a very big chance it is really going to happen.
Once the the people remember that after the BCH fork the combined value of BTC and BCH was bigger than the BTC value before, I think many people want to take advantage of the coming fork. They will buy before the fork.

I would call it hypervolatile at the moment.
There is still a lot of unceratinty in the market, and we have no clue if we have already seen the endgame of the chinese regulation politics.
I can't tell if the recent events brought so many people out of bitcoin that that market will become bearish over a longer period of time.
Most of the I expect to come back.

I think comparing bitcoin with the tulip bubble is simply a wrong comparison.
Tulips can be reproduced in an infinite amount. Bitcoin is limited! Li-mi-ted!!!
That fact is always missing!!
And this is exactly where the whole estimation of James Dimon has its weak spot: It is based on a wrong assumption!

First of all, I don't think that governments are very good in working together.
And then I think that crypto currencies are a problem mainly for those governments, where the crypto currencies are used the wrong way.
There are many examples like Japan or Switzerland where the crypto industry fits perfectly into the economy.
Those governments have no reason and no interest in banning bitcoin.
In China on the other hand many people got scamed with ICOs and the people use bitcoin to move bigger parts of their money abroad.
That is harmful to the economy in China, and I can't blame their government if they think about ways on how to contain that capital flight.

Many people have already sold, but I am sure that a lot of people still think about selling.
With the mostly negative publicity bitcoin gets at the moment, a few reports more could push the undecided over the edge as well.
Personally I am not going to sell a single satoshi, but it's not yet buy-time for me either.

Just in case China would really ban its exchanges, how bad would the outcome really be?
How deep do we expect bitcoin to fall after such a move?
Personally I think the consequences are overrated. Exchanges have grown in other nations as well, it does not all depend on China anymore.

I think the fear of such a move is harming bitcoin at least as much as the actual closure would do.
In fact, after a closure we would know what we are dealing with, an the uncertainty would be gone.
And exactly that uncertainty is what keeps bitcoin down at the moment. Once that would be gone, bitcoin could start to grow again.

I think it is good to read that the exchanges are becoming more global. That is something that should be mentioned in the media more often.
Instead all I read at the moment is the fear that exchanges are closed in China. It always sounds like that would be the end of the crypto world.
But that is not the case. Not everything depends on China.

I think it's all up to the personal preferences.
When I look at the charts, both develope similar at the moment. What the future holds, none of us knows.
Personally I am a friend of splitting an investment. Through the implementation of bitcoin cash that has been done for me, so I keep it that way.
Even if BCC should lose its value, I haven't had them before. And if they rise, it's good profit for me.

I think a local fiat is needed in a country.
A central bank needs to be able to take influence on the money the economy deals mainly with in order to keep the economy of the country competitive.
That can't be done with bitcoin. The crypto currencies are an addition to the fiat system. But I think they should not replace them.

What I can imagine is that bitcoin is the investment form of crypto currencies, and another coin becomes the payment form of it.
The market capitalization of the coin used for payment could even be higher than the one of bitcoin.
But the payment coin should not have a maximum supply like bitcoin has.
Otherwise it would become a form of investment as well.

I am getting more and more the impression that China banning the exchages would not be such a bad thing after all.
Sure in a short term the price would fall.
But bitcoin is just at the beginning of its evolution. Bitcoin would recover, and I think it would recover faster than we all expect.

If not now, when would be a better time to handle the problem with the concentration of too many exchanges in one country?
Long term, bitcoin would benefit from having exchanges spread equally all over the globe.
FUD news could not have the effect anymore they have today.

I think it is the total amount of profit that counts.
If you invest one dollar and get six dollars for it one day, you have a profit of 500%.
That would be no reason to cash out for me.
But if I had invested 100K and got 500K profit, things would be different.

The question is what you mean by cryptocurrency.
I think that one day we will live in a cashless society. Every payment will be made digital.
Digital fiat money counts as a form of crypto currency as far as I know.
So yes, I am sure that one day crypto currencies will replace the cash money.

What I do not think will happen is that a crypto currency that is not backed up by a nation can replace a fiat money.