You ought to be ashamed of yourself.

If the landlord left his house unlocked, would you take advantage of that as well? Maybe help yourself to some valuables, maybe a bite to eat?

People like you make the world a worse place to live.

I'd much prefer to discuss this on the Elliott thread where I'm otherwise talking to myself in four pages. But yes, it is all Elliott, but not Fibonacci.

I count three magenta waves up from 19 November. Between the magenta bars thus far represents either a corrective fourth or a first regressive impulse. Above the magenta bar ($3.14) essentially confirms a fifth impulse (with caveat) and below magenta ($2.5) invalidates the entire count.

The green bar represents the fourth of the magenta third. And the gold bar represents the fourth of the green fifth. The fall from $3.14 bounced beautifully within the gold-green overlap and continued a wee bit over the suggested green fourth. It is no accident that $2.9 was a major bid wall, support, resistance, and bottom of a suggested fourth. Perhaps the manipulator is an Elliott occultist as well.

I count five waves from $3.14 to $2.61 (though they are not clean). If we are to expect a correction before continuing the rally, the only valid labeling is a zig-zag. The dark channel represents a possibility. The higher 'b' gets the flatter the zig-zag and the more likely 'c' ends safely within the lower magenta bar, thus preserving optimistic hopes that the major reversal has already begun.

I discuss this further in bloody detail (with brilliant calls and embarrassing failures) in real-time.


I like to think 'realist', but I've been calling a December reversal leading to triple digit heights since early northern summer. This could hardly be called a pessimistic chart, at least not in retrospect:

I believe the price will continue correcting to above $2.5. Below that and the rally will have been invalidated.

If the price clears above $3.14 before correcting, then I expect it will climb shy of $4 before correcting the first wave of a major reversal beginning last month. If that optimistic scenario comes to pass (though I'm currently betting against it), the third wave rally after the correction (to the current iv price area) could launch bitcoin up to heights we haven't seen for months.

I expect we'll have a clear picture after this week.

Im sorry, I just don't see how bitcoinica's website & database response times nor it's throughput has anything to do with the exchange rate on mtgox. Care to walk me through the logic or give me some examples showing the price correlation? I only have 24 hours of data to work on.

Frankly, what I found far more informative is your statement that bitcoinica is responsible for up to 1/3 of the trades on mtgox.
That came as a bit of a surprise.

A daily volume chart and a chart displaying the number of daily trades on your platform would be of far greater use to the community. Would you be willing to provide this data? As it stands now, bitcoinica is a dark pool in every sense of the word. Nobody has any idea of these numbers except you Zhoutong. This is not a sustainable position to expect to hold into the future.

Releasing this technical website data as a 'financial metric' is dishonest. It is nothing more than a glorified page-hit counter. There seems to be a distinct unwillingness on the part of bitcoinica to share the market information you have accumulated over the past weeks.

Unfit to be reissued? If you use holograms I'd think yes. Otherwise?

Would printing BTC on them be 'mutilating'?

Thank goodness! The normal Internet is back. For a second there I thought it was broken.

Credibility shattered? Perpetual free fall? Case study on human greed?

This thread is about Bitcoin, not USD. Please keep it on topic.

In all seriousness, Proudhon, just because you've tossed the project into your own waste basket due to a price decline (though STILL up over 100% YoY), doesn't mean others have. We're not all as short-sighted. We don't all have time horizons of half a year.

You call it a "case study in human greed"... but you're the one who abandoned it because of a declining price. Others of us continue to build. It's more like a case study in perseverance and dedication - working on a project despite short-term price fluctuations, despite media cynicism, and despite convention.

Bitcoin is so much more than its spot price in a given month. Sorry that your understanding of it was so easily shaken - it must be somewhat depressing to be so fickle in one's endeavors. But cheer up mate, we'll keep working while you sulk and fuss about.

I actually want the exchange rate to increase because that would be a sign that people are investing in the project (hopefully some of them not merely as speculative investors but users).  The bitcoin market will need to be many times higher than what it is now for this thing to really stick.  But, it's not going to rise because the credibility of the project has been utterly destroyed and no serious money, certainly not enough of it, is entering the system.  What's essentially going on is the same people are just shuffling money and bitcoins around on the exchanges.  More and more of each are getting collected into fewer and fewer hands.  There is no way, in that scenario, for the price to rise and stick, and that's exactly what we've seen for the past 6 months.  Price drops, then rises to nearly where it was before the drop, then levels off, then gradually declines, then drops.  Repeat.  There is no reason to think this is going to stop happening and I think anyone betting otherwise is a fool.

I'm happy to concede that it's possible to make money in this environment.  But, that's essentially bleeding bitcoin and if this keeps up, as it seems it's going to, then what's going on is going to trade bitcoin into oblivion - It's credibility shattered, it's value in perpetual free fall - until the project will be tossed aside into the waste basket of novel internet experiments.  Bitcoin will be lucky to make it as a footnote in internet history and if it does make it it'll be a case study on human greed.

Did anyone sincerely believe any significant amount of new money was entering this pathetic system?  It's just old money changing hands, and as I've said before, you can't get the price to stick in that kind of scenario.  It'll bounce around after large drops and might recover to nearly the "stable" pre-drop price, but, ultimately, the price will continue going down as long as no new money enters the system; and, again, it's apparent that there isn't really any new money entering the system and there's absolutely no reason for anyone to put money into this sinking ship.

A week or two from now, it'll be painfully obvious that this recent "rally" was just like the New York Conference rally; and the long slow slide will continue.  A month from now we'll probably have made new lows.

(For all you Giorgio Tsoukalos fans)