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1721  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🕹️ Esports 🎮 Prediction & Discussion Thread on: July 02, 2023, 06:37:49 PM
The most interesting and to me potentially largest roster change recently has been to the Navi Csgo team.   Obviously they have been having problems, the potential for #1 team in the world is there but they obviously were uncomfortable and uncapable during recent matches the gears were locked in their progress.  Im not surprised there was change but to swap out 3 players this has to be considered a new team now, reset their rank at least for me in betting terms I cant be sure how they will do.


Who benches Electronic, you cant make up some things that happen but here we are.  Im sure he will do ok but apparently it wont be on Navi?
1722  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Can Casinos Go Bankrupt Because of Player Wins? on: July 01, 2023, 11:51:25 PM
Another common point I have just remembered in every day usage almost by big gambling or companies which offer large gambles to an audience is insurance cover.  Literally to make a large win possible you must absolutely cover that event actually occurring, its very bad practise to rely on nobody ever winning the largest prize (in fact that might be fraud in some cases Im not qualified to say).   Its the job of a casino to cover the event of a largest win occurring on one night, so the companies I'm thinking of and its often involving some TV or sponsored offer they must get insurance underwriting from a very large firm specialising in calculating odds of these events happening.
  To me risk is normal so this is almost a rule which can apply to every business there ever was or will be.   The other sad option taken I dont like it but often the disclaimer small print idea, just deny any ability to win above 100k for example.  I really dislike this, its unfair on the customer to limit their win but it is common and who the heck reads small print; barely anyone :/
1723  Economy / Gambling / Re: Top 5 Advantages of Bitcoin Casinos vs. Traditional Casinos on: July 01, 2023, 11:41:44 PM
Convenience is a big one and to me its an obvious distance from your normal budget vs bills in ordinary currency and I would hope moving a separate allocation of cash or value into crypto means a hard line is drawn in finances.  I think people are better off but it doesnt have to be that way, depends how people handle it but for me personally I keep the crypto I use on internet entirely separate from money to pay to keep the water on for example, so thats safer tbh.
1724  Economy / Economics / Re: Expect the unexpected on: July 01, 2023, 11:22:46 PM
Always play things on the backfoot for best security.  Its not the policy of most but the best idea for long term financial aptitude, you play the game using the 8/10's rule.     That rule and Im sorry for lacking a source exactly but the idea is simple enough; the difference in walking besides a cliff and walking on the edge of pavement is different in that you can never cross that line by the cliff or its a large distance fall.   In this way we allocate our most important decisions with a 8/10's rule, never use all you have never aim or allow this to occur.    If you pass close to 10/10 of your money you have failed to be secure even if you clear all the bills that month, play safer.
  It is discipline but also common sense to some extent.   Expect the unexpected, large bills and poor health or any event can push your finances badly it will happen so never go near to the edge in life changing event decisions.
1725  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will fall or rise? $30400 the recent price on: July 01, 2023, 09:00:35 PM
Not sure expectation of the SEC is ever bullish, I hope there are better reasons for recovery in the price or I might never be bullish on gaining from here.  30k could be the final price no further upwards, I dont find it too negatively personally.


We broke a declining trend on daily bars, gained well after that.  Found the 50 da average which is now moving upwards not in decline as it was previous.  Thats all good, now ideally we do beat that area of pricing last seen in Feb of this year.  This also relates to price action further out and with more volume.  Thats really the question in balance, to beat this area or spend further time circling the point deciding as much but at a later date.  It might we wait till Autumn, I expect a higher amount of volume at that time and can easily equate to movement.   We can be stagnant over this summer, not sure yet.  
   Its not fair to label things seasonally like this, half the world is nearly the peak of 'winter' right now.  But anyhow that schedule is fairly familiar, a known phenomena and imo valid parallel or tempo estimate to how we progress.
1726  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: July 01, 2023, 07:56:28 PM
Crypto has no official worth, there is no backing especially no guaranteed price just free market determination so its just highly informal personal attribution to a price.   It happens to be fungible so it resembles many other markets but we could be sitting here swapping marbles in theory and nobody would be arguing well we really need more paperwork on this or its not right.  

I always liked the long odds, a certain thing is boring and to me as said its not profitable.  I think if you bet a high amount maybe the site gives cashback or you might get a bonus of some kind for placing high bets ?    That might be the less obvious reason that participants have decided on those odds which dont exactly appeal on the face of it.
   I know one thing, free market determined prices and just general evolution of a product is way more exciting and fluid then the government nonsense that occurs, fixed prices, political agendas really promotes failure over enterprise and its mistakes which have been repeated decades even over centuries yet we keep doing it.  I hope BTC never gets twisted into that system, it would be a sad day.
1727  Economy / Economics / Re: No petrol/diesel car sales by 2035/ Reality or dream? on: June 30, 2023, 11:59:09 PM
Zero would be a dream, its not happening.  Put it this way, peak coal was over a century ago and yet here we are still using it.   To think we wont be heavily using oil 20 or 30 years from now is unrealistic.   But also its possible to vastly reduce the usage and so the fumes emission in main cities, that would make sense to reduce drastically as we have been moving towards for decades.
1728  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin 2024 halving less than 1 year away on: June 30, 2023, 11:46:23 PM
Its a long time before that happens, the whole price range from here to ATH has to be cleared and revised before any grander dream of higher prices.   Expecting too much at once isnt going to happen without a big turn in sentiment from here.  Today the price sells off and we do recover but that small picture I think is how we repeat on a larger scale.  We reach a bigger round number with more zeros like the 30000 mark or 40k and it'll be tested with sellers, we pull back and have to confirm some of the lower prices for a month or more.
  The answer to the poll could be further out then many expect, the main change with halvening is accumulative; the rest is speculative not actual.
1729  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will another ETF be immediately bullish for Bitcoin? on: June 29, 2023, 10:30:13 PM
Speculatively its already had an effect and scared the shorts off which in of itself is a buying effect.  A short must always end in a buy, thats the thing to remember when you hear people are short its good to remember that.  I would mostly count that immediate effect as bullish and then if the ETF is setup it will enable a wider range of involvement in the population.   Part of why they dont just allow an ETF already is apprehension on BTC regulation and all sorts of worries.
 Clearly it could be labelled an advanced ETF but to have no provision at all is not reasonable imo, every asset has risk to it especially the commodity based ETF that are already in operation have a risk.  Oil price in trade went negative for example and we use that every day, seems quite risky enough to me and its not restricted so far as I know.
1730  Economy / Economics / Re: What could Elon Musk be buying next? on: June 28, 2023, 11:58:47 PM
Twitter was a giant purchase more then he really wanted to be involved in, he decided afterwards with second thoughts but it was too late he is in there at a price that wasnt any bargain.   He must be selling at least some of Twitter before he moves onto any other large purchase, I'd say it has to be related if you think anything is happening near term.   Some product related to Twitter that would enhance it is my best guess for a valid acquisition but then he jumps the rails regularly & somehow thats worked.
1731  Economy / Speculation / Re: Everything is on FIRE today! on: June 28, 2023, 10:37:58 PM
DXY or Dollar index up quite strongly today, 1% would be big but its over half that so since the low early Tues its recovered everything that was lost in the last week which equates to a bit of a sell overall across multiple markets.  Apart from Japan who did well early on and have been seeing outperformance.   BTC is slightly weaker but considering its often large moves this is noise and hard to judge on, below 2 day and weekly average for the moment, how it closes this week is more important then its wavering during the week.
1732  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC price hitting 30k twice this year. on: June 28, 2023, 03:24:41 PM
Good action so far since passing the lowest Fib line from ATH to the low last year.   We have stayed high enough long enough to turn the 50 day average back to positive direction which bodes well further out then just these short term looks during a week.
  29724 is the level I have to maintain above for the most optimistic action to continue but so far for almost a week now the market has closed each daily bar above 30k.   We have gone sideways mostly but still I count this quite positively, due to being sideways the weekly average is now at the lows of today.   For me a rolling weekly average shows positive or negative market short term so we'll see how this momentum challenges into and over the weekend but just staying here is ok for now.
1733  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin What is the probability of 60 K+ again? on: June 27, 2023, 11:59:34 PM
The probability is over 100% from my point of view because dollar falling, thats hardly a good reason to state but it does make for a very obvious case of why so certain.      All these topics what if, giant number occurs how and why but its very simple to anyone who lives in a country with a destroyed currency and these are not that rare.
   Every currency for centuries including the original USA currency has devolved into only the worth of paper, every currency has destroyed itself over time.   Thats always happened and quite arguable also now that its occurring, the difference now is technology and inter connectedness between large governments and their central banks.   This makes this time the same but also unique and different enough to say its never occurred before, however the results are the same as the prior 4000 years of economic history ergo the conclusion is not different or difficult to extrapolate.
1734  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The fight between Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk. Who you betting on? on: June 27, 2023, 11:35:53 PM
Heres the statistical low down for all you avid bettors to feast over in your judicious appraisal of betting prospects in this clash of titans :



I wouldnt normally post the full size picture but Musk is a full 13 years older then Zuckerberg so it could come down to minuscule detail to assess, compare and contrast the pale color of the millionaire miscreants on the day of the fights to see if they may expire or not.  There is the weight advantage and Im not sure reach but height is on Musk's side.
1735  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: As a Gambler and a Die-Hard Fan of a Club Would you Bet Against your Club on: June 27, 2023, 11:27:51 PM
If you know your club then you are better placed to bet for or against them anyone else.  The big problem is staying impartial vs other teams prospects.   But if you know for sure they are just not performing even to their own best selves then what else can you do.    To justify this bet, put the money won in the team loss towards the next season ticket for that team.  They'll come around but sometimes it wont be until a full season has passed.  Its hard to stay impartial but I would never say never.
1736  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin 2024 halving less than 1 year away on: June 27, 2023, 09:38:21 PM
Theres always a higher and low price to market moves, I do think we're nearer to the top of the prices at the moment which means any bad news could mean we top out or fall back down to less pleasing prices.   The lower price range could be as low as 25k area and still maintain the general positive action since year start.  Most positive of all is to stay above 30k area which would make us much more bullish and maybe a break out upwards.   But I'd expect us to stay nearer to the 50 day average or close by, the 200 day is around 25k thats why it has to be expected as perfectly normal and within expectations to visit that price still.
 The news for reasons why these things happen, I almost dont  care & politics is just alot of hot air costly but not useful beyond those being paid in its costs.  It will always be the case BTC has to continue despite the objections of those who dont see a benefit or anticipate opposition to their fiefdom.
1737  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Can Casinos Go Bankrupt Because of Player Wins? on: June 26, 2023, 11:53:28 PM
Ive read stories of casinos going bankrupt, they went too far in trying to secure a high stakes player.  He made the terms of the game in his favor to such a great extent it cleared out all available cash from the casino bankroll.  This would be very serious as they can no longer continue with normal business, I know they certainly watch for fraud as the idea of running so many games only works if the odds are constantly within known parameters with some house type fee for the casino.  
  Casinos have costs and employees to pay, they might even have to pay interest on their bank roll, bonds, equity returns etc.   I think its definitely possible for a lack of cash its not as simple as it appears to always pay out instantly as is the great attraction to gambling but most after closure would be looking for the fraud reason or some bad management of the games.
   The biggest answer to the question is lack of liquidity and just lack of players, if fixed costs are too high then the casino is losing cash on a % basis per game operated so player count and traffic is important so far as I know.

The other reason Ive just read is taxes, of course a large tax liability could cause great problems for any operation.   Casinos definitely have large costs with all the paperwork required to stay in the right jurisdictions and legal framework.  This is a general worry for crypto overall at the moment unfortunately, paperwork and financing costs prior to making cash over a year is why its work to operate successfully - https://calvinayre.com/2020/03/12/casino/austrias-concord-card-casinos-goes-bankrupt-over-tax-debt
1738  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin high transaction fees is a disadvantage to small business owners on: June 26, 2023, 11:28:06 PM
I agree with the problem as a real determination in success for BTC.  Ironically the smallest things do count like convenience in the usage of any product.   The immediate idea I had is a monthly tab system to clear BTC spending so not every single transaction is handled by immediate clearance with people waiting around but with known amounts and on a scheduled date.    Some might say thats a work around but it might be more fitting for an ideal of lowest costs possible in % comparison to fiat currency and allows the offering of both types of payment.   That would only work with people who can be given any credit allowance to clear.   I know this system is already operated with gold, credit cards can be paid off vs a gold balance but its cleared monthly.
1739  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The fight between Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk. Who you betting on? on: June 26, 2023, 10:01:38 PM
I'd love to lay that bet if I never had to refund a cancellation.  Or betting a draw of some kind even if cancel or no show is the most likely outcome.  I think its a joke guys, not for real ever.   A proper fight is actually hard work even on a show level to the sport its still hard work not to appear awful and a physical mess.
  I cant see either pulling off the bloated overweight look like a George Foreman and somehow winning dominantly as he had skill and experience as well.  Its highly inadvisable by both, Im pretty sure its just banter and if I'm forced to chose then its Zuckerberg because he has some form or small amount of training in the sport allegedly.
1740  Economy / Economics / Re: What roles does the poor play in the Economy? on: June 26, 2023, 08:59:40 PM
Just the label poor starts the argument off on the wrong foot, a reasonably accurate conclusion is unlikely to occur.    We might be born poor possibly but nobody stays the same their entire lives and considering a population by how rich or poor they are is wrong imo.    People can move from poor to rich and even the opposite rich can become poor.
   The bulk of a countries population is always how the taxes and work is done, thats how I'd view it.  If people are unable to pay your tax burden then overly large ambitions will not likely work.  Im trying to be brief but people can be rich and capable in other ways besides capital value, if all people in the economy are educated and able to make riches that countries economy should be able to do well.
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