End of month will see us pull back to weekly average or about 32k I think.   Reasoning being we have an over extended flag formation, it could be bullish if it were compact and we were to continue upwards from here.   To briefly make formation at the top of a rise or flag pole then continue upwards, that very strong performance.  However we drift a little too much, people want to take some profit and hence price goes a little lower.
  More boring but the price action confirming 32k as a low remains quite bullish just not quite so fast in the gains as it powered us recently.

I thought Norway had a national wealth fund rather then a national debt but perhaps they have both.   Apparently they have invested 70k for every citizen where as USA just has the debt of owing 70k per citizen though for sure every country has assets in its favor and USA has great commodity wealth. I think the country will be fine but the currency will not, you can see how much the interest payment already rose and there is no benefit returned unlike various spending programs which form part of the GDP.

Before that it was GBP also very special case as an empire easily the worlds reserve currency, highly held in reserve and it failed over some decades to keep that value and we moved on to the next special case.   USA was 50% of the worlds trade when it became the reserve, nobody can take over in that fashion so I dont know who'd be the reserve next.

Asking for a full prediction would be industrial usage and they probably dont want people to do that even if it could be done with zero further work required.  I bet its possible but we'd have to guess on the accuracy of it all, perhaps that does not even matter so long as the machine can self examine the results and reasoning to then improve future bets.    I dont reckon AI is quite that good in terms of self improvement.
  Easiest way to get an answer from AI is ask for a story but then it might just say anything.

35 k is sideways and 50k is up.  Both are there but I would like you to pick which you expect more.

50k is +47% increase over todays price so thats an aspirational estimate & would be the first option vote imo.   Its not sideways and its not down so thats my logic that just one of those three directions is enough for a very rough sentiment poll.     If we get 50k year end and 70k for new ATH in Jan it'd still be in before the Chinese new year, Im not going to exclude that scenario.  Hopefully you get this isnt precise, 50k is up alot so vote up.   Im sure I can find a wiki for why polling often biases results seen.

  None of us truly know what happens next, its all a degree of probability and confidence levels on those estimates.  I made it simple like a fence dividing a flock, less choices adds clarity & it makes the poll result clearer.  Simple up down, stay is all I think a few months deserves but I'll enter in any poll option if you request  presuming thats possible to do.
  ATH or more is quite possible, Im going off what we did in 2017 and I didnt expect but way back at start of 2017 I knew the market was likely to be positive from how it was acting with its most negative prices of that year but to boil over and hit such a high level of froth was a surprise to everyone.

  20x price lows in 2023  if we were to repeat BTC history would mean $331,000 by year end;  I really dont think so but Im not going to say never either.   I believe extremes will always be possible with BTC as supply is not expandable the contrast to dollar is wider then the grand canyon hence the price dynamics, pressure builds fast with demand.  Whats driving demand now I dont know.  Equally if someone wants to say 10k I would write it in, I'd like to know why also.

The OP argument and reasoning best applies to lotteries especially the really large ones.    I have no other way to win those giant prizes, even a multibet I dont expect to win and I doubt I would get to the same reward as a lottery gives.  If we examine the profit, risk and profitability on either bet I reckon still the sports multibet is the smarter choice but also its alot more involved and lottery tickets all I have to do is put down small cash and big hopes.  I'll never win the lottery but someone has to and every person can dream hence the product is probably far more profitable then alot of other betting offered.

We dont have a great deal of time left in 2023 but speed can pick up & BTC tends to run in these last few months.  Even main markets can sometimes spark into something around the December or winter months, maybe its because of holidays that movement is more notable to occur then over the summer where for centuries a noted drift has been fable.   My theory is the shorter days alter peoples habit and mood to trading even while BTC is global its altered by dollar monetary flows.

  Any answer you feel like is correct.  Im not asking for a precise prediction just mostly a thumbs up or down, its purely the idea that peoples feeling alter and sometimes market effects are ironic; its worth noting how bullish the crowd is.


7 day poll & you may alter your vote later.  If you can come up with a better poll option I'll add it on just for you 

BTC has a positive trend on many time frames, you can tell when we start to have multiple alignments across time frames because we get positive action and spikes like has been occuring recently.  The simpliest way to view general positivity or not is the moving averages.  Both 200 day and 200 week are positive, it doesnt mean we cannot sell off but the general trend is towards accumulation or positive price ascent on the chart, we are still challenged in 2023 imo;  Im not expecting take off just yet but repeatedly we had demonstration of positive BTC.

Yea the reward changing on freeroll is often my first notice, something big is happening and its been changing alot    This is the dream scenario that only rarely happens in end of month bet, that is the largest movement of the entire month comes after the lock meaning possible high multiple reward occurs for the few deluded enough to dream of BTC moon landing lol
   Can we clear 35k now thats really the higher target and few thought that, I failed to guess that high I thought slower but its a break of resistance so there we are.  37222 ceiling target possible, closing lows of last years spring before we began trawling the depths.   Normally 1 week left I expect profit taking and/or confirm break of res about 29k but up more can surprise.   Volume needs to be higher again just an estimate.

I like that chart but if we take the lows as more reliable gauge then the peaks in prices and both a mirror of each other then we can still pullback to 28k and be within that bullish trend.
  Cramer saying yay or nay is not much, he is mostly just warning his audience not to get carried away and maybe he should be talking about allocation rather then absolute calls for or against.
  Lets pretend a universe where Cramer could be right and still within the boundaries of true to the trend.  We might lose 10% say, that would fit the narrative of a pullback that confirms the break as per that chart ie. quite a normal thing to happen.  BTC is volatile and people should be ready for that to occur, all of that is a mouthful vs just pressing a sound effect button and saying no.

At this point and with Lebanon having no proper reliable money system for the people, it seems the war story might better favor BTC then oppose it with hard money scenario etc.   Sadly these war stories arent new, I've been watching the wretched civil war in the middle east and locked down Palestine especially for multiple decades now its a broken record repeating and its sad to say that as people die.    Also dollar has its own problems, the deficit the debt ceiling and so on.  BTC rising right now might be quite fair, I dont sense its due a sell because I dont see it has excessive speculative hype and hopes to it especially.
   My worry is that we'd have to look at monthly bars and the volume but this is a trading set back really, it'll rise and pullback.  We can debate how much but a normal sell off and reset just leads to the next question how large is the rise after that, so not really negative.


https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/lebanons-financial-crisis-how-it-happened-2022-01-23/

The low odds for the Trump bet is due to high revenue not that he is winning unless we were to include the Charlie Sheen version of winning in the more infamous definition of the word.

I love the story of the very wild outside bet of a second Obama ticket run being more likely then the better known Clinton run occuring and somehow the odds improved so much its a pay off now ?  Great just shows what makes the money really, that impossible outside which was Trump at one time but imo its vastly overplayed now.
  Trump runs as a legal defense is the story I most recognize, very few people could justify doing that and the cost of running but he can comparatively vs legal fees and the consequences it makes perfect sense so I dont blame the man tbh.

They make so much money and collect that data to sell automatically.  Data mining is more profitable then gold mining I bet, far easier and more lucrative no doubt.

Its already been true recession is apparent because of the growth in monetary supply exceeding the inflationary figures.  When the growth realized is mostly from increased nominal figures related to inflation then you have a recession.  The workers of any country suffering lower currency value like that will experience and understand recession is occurring, when do your full work and receive less for it people dont often miss this effect is occurring.  My point being recession isnt new, we are just seeing greater amplitude on the charts.

People are impressed by big numbers but they should be impressed by the predictive ability and track record vs volatile results.   Big numbers are simple to perceive and so is the general take of the famous person putting down a bet but I'd be mostly impressed by hard work of someones knowledge accumulated over a life time to determine sports bets accurately.
   Multi bets that win are always the most impressive to me, you dont have to bet alot if you are right on 10 different games.  Or the real long shot bets maybe far ahead for season winners when nobody would have guessed that team.

Near term bullish vs that June through August fall trend that resulted in the waterfall end to it.  This contrast from immediate action to that older historic action and any prior selling above 30k is probably going to take something extra to overcome.   We'll need to pullback and confirm a level that still equates to bullish foothold before properly rising ?
  It'd be nice to end the year at the highs and beyond any prior price achieved but thats the fairy tale ending I dont know we get it or deserve it just yet.  BTC is best when the price action earns its place after defeating sellers and leaving them worse off then it might pick up momentum.

Could always decide to quit gambling after his win and avoiding friends means breaking old habits of continual betting and being around gambling as a temptation to continue endlessly.  Unless he actually owes money I dont see much harm in doing something different.   He should put the money into something long term that will pay off eventually, if he has been betting for an instant win changing to the opposite is not a bad idea at that point.

For a second that was my first thought also and I already know the story
  Shouldnt be true but this is the echo chamber effect and yea its really important when repeating some misinformation or incorrect assumption its labelled properly.   People even in passing will pick up this headline and thats it, they'll be repeating or remembering the ETF was already passed.
   I saw a funny cartoon about this, some things while satire are really true and correct in how they do play out as the market is a very funny volatile thing, all markets really are now.  I cant think of a sensible market anymore, the world is saturated with speculative price action.

Its not the gambling but the brain activity or habit that forms and its not really exclusively gambling but the pattern of thinking and feeling that goes with it.  I make some mistakes where I know its a mistake while doing it but I continue, thats why I describe it as a kind of habit or automated patterned behavior.  If people can break the repetition of the mistake thats the main thing, I wouldnt look down on someone for repeating a mistake exactly but at least admit this was incorrect and at that point you can attempt to alter the bad habit and it should be a start to do so.

Todays top price and this weeks top price is the 78% retracement of the highest to the lowest prices of the last six months.  Its retracted a bit from that measure but seems like it can continue to do more before any reason to sell is found properly.  The volume with days with positive action is better then pullbacks, thats a good indicator of strength for us to continue also.

It really didnt make so much sense to sell the reserves in summer imo, it should be kept for exceptional events and to even out the possible deficit in heating oil and fuel over winter surely.   I realize summer can be higher demand also but I think they have sold into the inflationary figures to try and suppress the worst of that set of price rises as fuel is related to retail and distribution costs.
  They have gone a bit too far if not also increasing production, if you know the reserves will be able to refill with future production increases thats a strategy but if you just sell regardless of any other factors to try and alter a price, its only temporary and the market will rebound will oil higher and maybe more then usual.

The timing of this contest far away doesnt favor my schedule and also importantly I think being down under is an upset condition for all the teams, add in CS2 throwing all pro players off their years of experience and I hand it to Complexity for being able to innovate & overcome.
  Also Col is the only team to have a player originally based in the southern hemisphere who coincidentally is top fragging vs the world champs, he likes the weather apparently.    At least should be 3 maps.